Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KarenRei]

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Do Tesla NEED to do anything to prove the point they made a long time ago: Electric cars are super fast.
People get that now. I dont think anybody is surprised my model S can outrun them. The next big things to slay are:

Tesla might go bankrupt
Where do I charge my car?

Steady shipments and hopefully a Q3 profit will help slay the first. Continual supercharger roll-out should slay the second. IMHO Tesla do not do nearly enough social media and specifically twitter promotion of new supercharger locations. The big ones especially should be an event. Hire a band, get your local tesla users group to show up and offer test rides etc! give out teslaquilla!

It feels like tesla just show up, plug in some electrical equipment, then shuffle off before anybody notices. new supercharger site unveiling should be a BIG DEAL.

 

[Etna]

From the Nurburgring tweet above:
View attachment 451206

This is how they beat Porsche.
Sticky tape and plexiglass FTW!

That plexiglass part is a Gurney flap! You normally install those only on race cars for additional downforce at high speed.

Nice Michelin Pilot Sport Cup 2 tires too. I am convinced this is the car Elon was talking about.

 

[Foghat]

It’s fun to talk about the Taycan since it will only increase Tesla sales when all said and done, but what is the real story here?

The majors are still on a systemic downward trajectory for ICE sales and they have no way of turning it around without complete commitment to BEV as their core business.

How are they going to reduce BEV production costs if they only produce 20k/year?

How are they going to develop better BEV if they outsource to battery manufactures that serve many different customers needs with limited supply?

Where are their plans to develop “gigafactories” to raise production into the millions of cars per year?

Same for chip manufacturing, how are they going to integrate the most efficient systems that will separate them from Tesla if everyone relies on the same chip manufacturer to provide them with their innovation?

If Porsche has spent $7billion to develop the Taycan for 20k/year in sales, there must be a Gigafactory included with that, right? A vast charging network to handle their amazing charging speeds? An in house autopilot/FSD product? Big designs for an affordable Porsche in the works?

It’s time to get real. Tesla killer is a distraction myth. Serious legacy competition does not exist.

The only real measure of competition will be if we see an announcement from all the majors of a complete transformation to BEV infrastructure, starting today. You can’t just plug and play a battery in a car and call it a day. The ICE engine is completely different with a massively different supply chain and economy.

No matter how much money they have, no matter how much global influence they wield, this young tech is now out of the box. The next generation of engineers are already looking forward to developing the next iteration. The next generation of consumers are already looking to pass their Model 3s on to their future teenagers as their first cars.

Tesla will have sold a million cars globally by next year, and all by word of mouth and in face overwhelming billion dollar sponsored mainstream media headwinds.

It’s time to realize no matter how big you are or how connected you are to other trillion dollar industries, their is no greater force than an idea whose time has come.

Tesla has arrived and it’s time to get on board or it’s over.

Sooner than later.

 

[bhtooefr]

Putting in a 150kW boost converter is possible, but a reallly poor engineering choice. Even at 97% efficiency, that's an extra 5kW of heat output. Nearly equal to the Tesla cabin heater.

Here's my hypothesis: the car really runs on 400V. This module is the set of 3 additional contactors needed to electrically switch the packs from two parallel block into two series blocks. Thus getting twice the power ftom the same charge cable by doubling the voltage.

My understanding is that the car has full 270 kW charge power on 800 volt systems whether or not you buy this module. And, my understanding is that if you don't buy this module, you get 50 kW charging on 400 volt chargers. If you do, you get 150 kW.

How could that be anything other than a DC-DC boost converter (specifically, two different ones, and the 150 kW option gives you a bigger one), given that? I guess they could've used cheaper contactors that can't handle high current for the 400 volt DCFC configuration, but you'd still need the high current contactors for supplying the car, which would mean the car normally runs at 800 V...

 

[Tslynk67]

As alluded to by others, I feel Porsche Taycan has been the best thing to happen to Tesla for a while. Despite the general media pitching it as finally taking the fight to Tesla, the reality is that anyone who's not a complete Porsche convert, is laughing their asses off.

After sleeping on it, I'm 101% certain that Model S will beat the Taycan time on Nürburgring next week. Otherwise, the easier and less risky approach would have been to make the attempt, film it all, but then just don't tell anyone if it fails. By announcing in advance i think it's in the bag.

And yes, I'd love to see Nico Rosberg as the driver or Leillani - Nico was F1 champ though and blindingly fast. Bot sure if Nico still has affiliations with Mercedes...?

 

[CorneliusXX]

Autopilot won’t be used. They have too much other more important stuff to work on.

Which is a good thing. Don’t want to do anything that gives Tesla an apparent advantage.

Wonder how the Nurburgring announcement will affect TSLA today? Maybe slight boost to help fight the MM’s pushing toward max pain?

Porsche has far more to lose than Tesla. One is supposed to be the ultimate racing machine, the other is seen as a "glorified iPhone" by many drivers. Even if Tesla is close to the Porsche time it will devalue Porsche's brand.

 

[HG Wells]

I think we are seeing the beginnings of LAP wars.
If every 6 months the tittle of fastest car swings back and forth it will sell more cars.

 

[Swampgator]

As alluded to by others, I feel Porsche Taycan has been the best thing to happen to Tesla for a while. Despite the general media pitching it as finally taking the fight to Tesla, the reality is that anyone who's not a complete Porsche convert, is laughing their asses off.

After sleeping on it, I'm 101% certain that Model S will beat the Taycan time on Nürburgring next week. Otherwise, the easier and less risky approach would have been to make the attempt, film it all, but then just don't tell anyone if it fails. By announcing in advance i think it's in the bag.

And yes, I'd love to see Nico Rosberg as the driver or Leillani - Nico was F1 champ though and blindingly fast. Bot sure if Nico still has affiliations with Mercedes...?

I predict Randy Probst. And track mode for Model S. True they would have already simulated the run. They know they can beat it.

 

[stef]

I predict Randy Probst. And track mode for Model S. True they would have already simulated the run. They know they can beat it.

Not sure, from wiki:
“Randy Pobst has more than 90 pro wins. He is currently a Mazda, Volvo, Audi and Porsche factory supported driver.”

 

[Swampgator]

Not sure, from wiki:
“Randy Pobst has more than 90 pro wins. He is currently a Mazda, Volvo, Audi and Porsche factory supported driver.”

He helped test and develop track mode for TSLA

 

[vgrinshpun]

Translation from Porsche speak:
"repeatability of power" = loss of 0.8 seconds over 26 consecutive 0 to 200 km/h launches

OR a loss of 0.7 seconds when narrated during the live-stream of the event (7:21 mark)

2020 Porsche Taycan Debuts Today: See The Livestream Here

Need another "asterisk" thread...

Another puzzling thing that seem to be overlooked is that Porsche told C&D that Taycan is capable of only 10 consecutive 2.6 seconds 0 to 60 mph launches. Unless I am missing something, this means that during the 26 0 to 200 km/h launches Taycan is not reaching 60 mph in 2.6 seconds, but is slower. This means that the whole claim of "repeatability of power" has a healthy dose of specmanship: not only "repeatability" involves 0.8 seconds degradation, but also "power" does not seem to mean maximum power (corresponding to 2.6 seconds 0 to 60 mph time).

In another word, in order to have 26 consecutive 0 to 200 km/h launches Porsche needs to dial back maximum power during the whole exercise.

Why the Porsche Taycan EV's Two-Speed Transmission Is a Big Deal

 

[Prunesquallor]

...IMHO Tesla do not do nearly enough social media and specifically twitter promotion of new supercharger locations. The big ones especially should be an event. Hire a band, get your local tesla users group to show up and offer test rides etc! give out teslaquilla!

It feels like tesla just show up, plug in some electrical equipment, then shuffle off before anybody notices. new supercharger site unveiling should be a BIG DEAL.

As I recall, when the Ft. Stockton SC went live, some of the West Texas Tesla clubs had a "Golden Spike" ceremony, because that essentially completed the I-10 coast-to-coast route. More of that kind of thing would be cool.

 

[The Accountant]

Here are the Lap Times for production, street-legal vehicles at Nürburgring
List of Nürburgring Nordschleife lap times - Wikipedia
The Taycan lap time was 7:42 by a professional driver. It will be interesting on how much better the Model S will do.

Here is a video of a Shanghai Tesla owner taking his Tesla Model 3 Performance to Nurburgring without Track mode enable. He came in at a respectable 9:00 (considering he is not a professional driver).

 

[JusRelax]

The Taycan release actually provided what seems to be virtually the pefect opportunity for Tesla.

Let's think about this from Tesla's POV:

• M3 sales are great, no issue there
• MX sales have recovered quite nicely this quarter
• MS sales have not recovered much and it seems would benefit from something to help it's potential customers to see how much of an impact the recent Raven changes have made with respect to performance

As others have mentioned, I believe they will release a new performance update for Raven MS, including track mode, which will result in the Raven MS beating the Taycan on the Ring.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Note that the Roadster 2 is going to have 3 motors, where each motor can probably have a different gearing ratio - this would create a better power output profile at higher speeds too, without having to introduce a transmission.

You're missing one of the most important reasons why Tesla is adopting SRPM motors: the torque vs. rpm limits associated with AC induction motors (as per your chart).

Switched Reluctance Permanent Magnet (SRPM) motors do not suffer from the back-EMF effects that limit rpm in AC motors. Indeed, in laboratories switched reluctance motors have run up to 500K to 750K rpm.

Ask yourself how Tesla is able to achieve a 250+ mph top speed AND a 8.9 sec Quarter Mile time for the Roadster 2 with one configuration WITHOUT a multispeed gearbox?

The answer is simple: SRPM motors aren't rpm limit due to back EMF. I think the simplicity of this fact is the reason few people around here understand it. But Elon isn't simple like that. He's foremost a scientist and an engineer, like this:

The case for switched reluctance motors | Powerelectronics.com

"Torque production is unaffected by motor speed. This is unlike ac motors where, in the field-weakening region, rotor current increasingly lags behind the rotating field as motor rpm rises."​

That's how Elon rolls. And that's why Tesla's rule.

Cheers!

 

[KarenRei]

Doesn't really help: Tesla China earns money by customers paying them in Yuan. If they want to send excess Yuan elsewhere they'll have to exchange those for dollars, which means going through the official exchange rate and capital controls.

Buying batteries from Tesla Colorado doesn't really help: they might pay them in Yuan but then Tesla Colorado ends up with a Yuan balance in China. If they want to get the proceeds out of China, they'll have to exchange it to dollars - at the official exchange rate.

What Tesla can and probably already does though is to pay their (significant) Chinese supply chain in Yuan earned in China, and maybe pay other suppliers in Yuan too even if those don't export from China, who have a need for Yuans. This avoids the exchange to dollars.

But I think this is pretty academic: China is the world's largest EV market and for the next 5 years I believe Tesla will reinvest most of the Yuan proceeds into expanding within China, to cover expansion capex and expansion opex within China.

The Colorado job ad was for lab-scale production.

The Fremont job ad, however, didn't say the scale, and sounded like full scale. I don't understand where they'd fit cell and pack production at Fremont, even assuming that they no longer need vacuum ovens and solvent recovery, but...

 

[Artful Dodger]

Honestly, that one takes the cake around the bend! Schnapps is not "sipped"!
(Anyway, who would volunteer to ride backwards around the bends, up and down at record speeds while imbibing? Okay, maybe Convicted Anton)

Ahaha, yeah, understandable with you being European that you might never have experienced "Cowboy Poker". Try it next time you're in California (but don't wear red).

P.S. Los Angeles is home to Rodeo Drive

 

[lascavarian]

As alluded to by others, I feel Porsche Taycan has been the best thing to happen to Tesla for a while. Despite the general media pitching it as finally taking the fight to Tesla, the reality is that anyone who's not a complete Porsche convert, is laughing their asses off.

After sleeping on it, I'm 101% certain that Model S will beat the Taycan time on Nürburgring next week. Otherwise, the easier and less risky approach would have been to make the attempt, film it all, but then just don't tell anyone if it fails. By announcing in advance i think it's in the bag.

And yes, I'd love to see Nico Rosberg as the driver or Leillani - Nico was F1 champ though and blindingly fast. Bot sure if Nico still has affiliations with Mercedes...?

Agree. This “Ring” competition comes with an audience recently awakened to Musk via his dialog with Jack Ma. In a culture that is prestige conscious, binding your brand with Porsche cannot but be brilliant and very likely helpful in Q4 exports into a very large market.

This is good in so many ways!

 

[Artful Dodger]

The Fremont job ad, however, didn't say the scale, and sounded like full scale.

Do you have a link to Tesla's job ad? The link in Elecktrik's article was broken, and searching Tesla's site with a few different keywords from the article did not turn up a matching job ad. TIA.

Cheers!