Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KarenRei]

I didn’t follow the Maxwell discussion too closely wrt capacitors because I didn’t see the cost benefits for normal driving. Did someone already bring up their applicability for racing applications?

On a twisty track it seems like it could make a difference. Extreme and frequent regen/discharge cycles. I haven’t done the math but it seems like they could help.

Please stop...

 

[JRP3]

Sounds like a good use case for an ultracapacitor.

I didn’t follow the Maxwell discussion too closely wrt capacitors because I didn’t see the cost benefits for normal driving. Did someone already bring up their applicability for racing applications?

On a twisty track it seems like it could make a difference. Extreme and frequent regen/discharge cycles. I haven’t done the math but it seems like they could help.

Caps are never appropriate for a vehicle with a large battery pack. They take up too much space and weigh too much.

 

[EVNow]

Predictable dump to kill all the options. That’s what this stock has turned out to be. A place where dummies gamble on weekly options, and market makers pin the price every Friday to kill them all. Stock gets pounded every time it’s about to breakout. Need more long-term thinkers to buy

Today is one more day of brazen manipulation to bring SP to Maxpain of 225.

 

[KarenRei]

Caps are never appropriate for a vehicle with a large battery pack. They take up too much space and weigh too much.

And cost orders of magnitude too much, and make zero sense when you're not even going to the low-hanging fruit of power-dense li-ions because it makes far more sense just to add more energy-dense cells.

But this hundred-times-over-repeated conversation does not bear repeating for the 101th time. :Þ

 

[JRP3]

But this hundred-times-over-repeated conversation does not bear repeating for the 101th time. :Þ

It did for at least one person

 

[Todd Burch]

Today is one more day of brazen manipulation to bring SP to Maxpain of 225.

Could just be the MMD. Don't worry, we'll break out to $335 shortly .

 

[humbaba]

It did for at least one person

Been There, Done That

All I can think of is the scene where Xena answers Gabrielle's and Joxer's questions before they can ask them.

 

[FreqFlyer]

So Porsche sells 37K 911s around the world and you think Porsche is not going to sell 40K similar priced Taycans? Not sure about Porsche but VW sells in over 153 countries around the world. I think Porsche can move 40K Taycans.

I must correct myself, Porsche sales targets are 20K-40K units per year. 20K is easily doable.

 

[EVNow]

In shipping news probably the last ship from SFO has left. Assuming 1,200 cars loaded per working day - we have 4k more cars going to EU and similar number of cars to China. But, the last China ship in Q2 only landed in Q3. So, they have about ~13k cars to sell in China.

We also have reports of a ship leaving Philly to EU. So, could be as high as ~26k cars sent to EU in Q3.

Q3 :

5 ships to China : 2 + 2 + 3 + 2 + 1 = 10 days ~ 12k cars
6 ships to EU : 3 + 3 + 4 + 3 + 3 + 3 = 19 days ~ 23k cars.

Q2 :

8 ships to China+JP : 1 + 2 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 10 days ~ 12k cars (last ship landed only in Q3)
5 ships to EU : 3 + 3 + 4 + 3 + 3 = 16 days ~ 19k cars.
​

 

[FreqFlyer]

And so the free publicity for Tesla begins. The free pub train for Tesla just keeps on rolling.

Elon Musk throws down with Porsche, sends a Model S to the Nürburgring

 

[The Accountant]

Based on deliveries so far, it does seem that Europe will be over 25,000 for the Q. I have been a little OCD on this the last week. Interestingly the loading time in SFO for Europe was 19.3 days this quarter and 38 combined for Q1 and Q2, so that is consistent with repeating the 22,700 deliveries. I think they started getting more efficient in Q2, which only had 15.4 loading days. At this point in the quarter they have 10,600 deliveries to Europe, but only about 2.5 ships unloaded and distributed. The 3rd ship hit Zeebrudge yesterday, the 4th (Glovis Sunlight) is due in a week, the 5th, a shipment from Philly and the 6th (Glovis Courage) should arrive on the 20th.
To simplify, they have less then 3 ships distributed, over 10,600 delivered, as of August 31st and 4 more ships of cars to deliver.They should be well past 12,000 delivered by now and should have close to 15,000 more at Zeebrudge now or due by the 20th. As a bonus, they should start the 4th quarter with more inventory then Q3 and perhaps run consistent east coast deliveries to the UK in Q4.

Troy Teslike published new Q3 estimates early. He has moved his estimate up to 95,000. Europe is in line with what you estimate.
He has taken his US number up significantly. He comments that the US number could be even higher as Tesla's website shows new orders can be delivered by the end of Sept.
Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) | Twitter

 

[X Fan]

As we inch closer to Q end, anyone have a SWAG yet on quarter results?

Profitable?

 

[heltok]

It seems that the Taycan was far from standard:

So is Elon gonna do the same, replace the seats with racing seats, remove the back seat etc etc?!

 

[StealthP3D]

What bad marketing?
In one well sweep all 'track' nonsense would fly out the window: tesla is better than human, whole another level of branding/marketing.

The only things that might need be changed are maximum rate at which AP is allowed to turn the steering wheel and maximum speed AP is allowed to operate at.
Raise them above what is needed, empty the track to play it safe and grab some popcorn.

Really, I can't wait for this to happen but Elon might not play this card just yet.

Ummm, no. Not even possible at this stage of the FSD game. At racing speeds, even programming the precise track and every driver input is not going to beat a skilled human driver. To drive at this level requires minute corrections of varying intensity at multiple points on the track. The sensors are not sufficient. It would also require an entirely different kind of software that would take years to develop not to mention many crashed cars. This is not like training AP to drive on public roads and, when the AP makes a mistake at racing speeds, it will be too late for the human to save it.

Re: Taycan VS Model S

The elephant in the room is that the Taycan is severely overweight. Somehow the press has failed to adequately address the weight difference between the Model S (with a much higher capacity battery and more cargo capacity) vs. the Porsche. Also, I read somewhere (but cannot find it now) that the peak power output of the Taycan is limited to something like 3 seconds. That is going to seriously reduce the utility of that two-speed transmission. The power of the Tesla might fall off at higher speeds but it doesn't get reduced artificially due to thermal limits. I think the Model S with good tires, brake pads, wheels (and of course a skilled driver) will likely not only put in a good showing against the Taycan but might beat it by a reasonable margin.

 

[lascavarian]

Nothing against Leillani, but as a former F1 World Champion and current youtuber, I think Nico has better global name recognition.

I think this would miss the point/opportunity. The opportunity is in Asia where a new plant is about to widely open availability. Germany/Europe can wait for now.

Pick a high name recognition Asian race driver.

EM has been building a presence and buzz in this market. Taking the “Ring” with a driver familiar in that blossoming market would nicely build on that rising interest base with a vehicle immediately available - Raven.

 

[humbaba]

It seems that the Taycan was far from standard:

So is Elon gonna do the same, replace the seats with racing seats, remove the back seat etc etc?!

And yet, there are complaints in Ars Technica comments amounting to "if this isn't bog standard it doesn't count" -- but Porsche is different?

And the alt-truthers are already prepping for the Taycan to be beaten

Unconfirmed comment from reddit, so treat with suspicion: https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comm ... del_s_on_nürburgring_next_week/ez90c9e?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share

Quote:
This isn't a "mod" so much as manufacturing totally new parts for a boutique build. Depending on how extensive (everything I saw was internal, not visible from outside) it may not be anything someone could see without tearing the car down.

 

[humbaba]

Re: Taycan VS Model S

The elephant in the room is that the Taycan is severely overweight. Somehow the press has failed to adequately address the weight difference between the Model S (with a much higher capacity battery and more cargo capacity) vs. the Porsche. Also, I read somewhere (but cannot find it now) that the peak power output of the Taycan is limited to something like 3 seconds. That is going to seriously reduce the utility of that two-speed transmission. The power of the Tesla might fall off at higher speeds but it doesn't get reduced artificially due to thermal limits. I think the Model S with good tires, brake pads, wheels (and of course a skilled driver) will likely not only put in a good showing against the Taycan but might beat it by a reasonable margin.

Yeah, I keep losing track of the source for that too, but it was official and not a rumor. Basically they overdrive the system for a couple of seconds at launch. It helps them almost catch a performance model S. Then, at high speed, the second gear kicks in so they have sustained power. The catch is, I'm not sure how much of an improvement that is over Tesla's dual-geared system. Especially with Raven where at higher speeds they rely more on the front motor -- you know, the higher performance motor taken from the model 3 that has less of a problem with heat.

The Taycan's "edge" in having a second gear is more limited than most people realize, and there's a reason its acceleration slows dramatically at three seconds from launch.

 

[StealthP3D]

How is it that people missed this? It was massive news. Wow, I'm really glad that Tesla is doing this race, there's a lot of myths that they need to bust even among Tesla fans.

Model S and X now have the "Raven" drivetrain, based on an updated version of the Model 3's drivetrain - one PM motor and one induction motor. The PM motor never overheats, while the AC motor gets more rest time. It combines the best of both worlds - the high power density at low RPMs without torque ripple of the induction motor, and the high efficiency / easy cooling of the PM motor. The induction motor can freewheel without cogging torque or magnetic drag torque when there's no demand for its power (no power in the coils = no induction currents in the rotor). It's just a great combination.

This just goes to show how much stock people put into appearances. The Raven looks similar to the previous incarnations so it must be similar, right?

I would not have bought an S or X once the Model 3 came out due to having been leapfrogged by the essential technology. The Raven update fixed that. it's HUGE!

 

[Nocturnal]

It seems that the Taycan was far from standard:

So is Elon gonna do the same, replace the seats with racing seats, remove the back seat etc etc?!

Heck. If you gut my P3D, swap out all suspension/brakes/wheels for aftermarket, I'm positive it would destroy the Taycan.

With a blank check and disregard for being street legal, I bet we could drop 500 pounds off the 3. Lightweight suspension, wheels, delete back seats, swap out front seats with racing seats, pull carpeting from trunk, remove speakers...

And yet, there are complaints in Ars Technica comments amounting to "if this isn't bog standard it doesn't count" -- but Porsche is different?

And the alt-truthers are already prepping for the Taycan to be beaten

Those guys are nuts. Basic bolt ons are usually accepted as being close enough to stock for comparison purposes. Almost nobody keeps their car 100% stock. And that doesn't even count bolt on type options offered directly from the manufacturer. ​

 

[Green Pete]

Does anyone else thing the 2019.32 release feature of letting you know there is software available was added so if v10 is ready by end of quarter they can get as many installs as possible so they can recognize more of the FSD revenue? It makes me feel like whatever is in 10 would allow for recognizing a lot of the revenue. I’m frankly not all that excited about enhanced summon. I doubt illl ever use it on its own. But if v10 includes some initial city NoA things that would be pretty awesome for revenue recognition as well as stock price. Being able recognize an additional 6k of software on a 40-50k product adds 13% margin.