Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

So is Elon gonna do the same, replace the seats with racing seats, remove the back seat etc etc?!

He should leave it standard and don't even send over a driver. Let it run the track in FSD programmed to optimize lap time via AI. Leave it to run laps and charge 72hrs nonstop and see what happens.

 

[Tslynk67]

Not sure if anyone's noticed, but the delivery mix of M3 in Norway has switched from predominantly SR+ to LR in the last few days - clear sign of production batching by Tesla and maybe less of a revenue/margin impact than I previously thought.

Tesla Registration Stats

 

[JRP3]

Heck. If you gut my P3D, swap out all suspension/brakes/wheels for aftermarket, I'm positive it would destroy the Taycan.

With a blank check and disregard for being street legal, I bet we could drop 500 pounds off the 3. Lightweight suspension, wheels, delete back seats, swap out front seats with racing seats, pull carpeting from trunk, remove speakers...

Those guys are nuts. Basic bolt ons are usually accepted as being close enough to stock for comparison purposes. Almost nobody keeps their car 100% stock. And that doesn't even count bolt on type options offered directly from the manufacturer. ​

They pulled out over 800lbs from a Pikes Peak P90D racer.

 

[M3Rider]

And so the free publicity for Tesla begins. The free pub train for Tesla just keeps on rolling.

Elon Musk throws down with Porsche, sends a Model S to the Nürburgring

Did you notice the timing of the S arrival?

But a racing friend reached out this morning to tell me that a Model S was track-prepped in California and arrived on the ground in Germany on Monday. Presumably that car is one of the new, upgraded "Raven" Model Ses, which feature some newer tech from the Model 3 as well as a new adaptive suspension.

Looks like this thing was in motion before the Taycan reveal?

 

[Green Pete]

As far as deliveries go, sow this 5 miles south of downtown Seattle headed into town yesterday:

 

[Artful Dodger]

He should leave it standard and don't even send over a driver. Let it run the track in FSD programmed to optimize lap time via AI. Leave it to run laps and charge 72hrs nonstop and see what happens.

v1 of the FSD computer won't do this. You'd need the data center to train the AI on the collected data, and then it wouldn't be real time (you'd have to download a new NN version to see any change based on learning/experience).

All is not lost however, Those types of AI 'on-chip' learning features are exactly what's planned for v2 of the FSD chip. Elon said at the Autonomy Investor Day event that the next gen chip design was about 40% done. When its ready, it'll be able to learn from the driver, and hopefully, learn from its own mistakes.

When it can do that, its well howdy.

Cheers!

 

[Tslynk67]

Does anyone else thing the 2019.32 release feature of letting you know there is software available was added so if v10 is ready by end of quarter they can get as many installs as possible so they can recognize more of the FSD revenue? It makes me feel like whatever is in 10 would allow for recognizing a lot of the revenue. I’m frankly not all that excited about enhanced summon. I doubt illl ever use it on its own. But if v10 includes some initial city NoA things that would be pretty awesome for revenue recognition as well as stock price. Being able recognize an additional 6k of software on a 40-50k product adds 13% margin.

I don't even understand how this update notification thing is supposed to work. I went from 2019.32 to 2019.32.1 on Wednesday and I couldn't see any information on the pending release anywhere, so I've no idea how it's supposed to work.

And what was the new feature, you ask? I can now update my wheel configuration myself. I guess it saves service time...

 

[mrmage]

From

Did you notice the timing of the S arrival?

View attachment 451290

Looks like this thing was in motion before the Taycan reveal?

One week is not much time for Tesla to react to Porsche’s Nürburgring time, so Tesla must have anticipated this for awhile. Or so I hope.

This is awesome. It’s the only time in my life that I’ve had any stake emotionally or financially in the outcome of a race. Having something about Tesla to look forward to besides deliveries and margins is exciting.

 

[MartinAustin]

Hmmm NASDAQ is falling but TSLA is climbing rather rapidly

 

[mongo]

OT

That doesn't make sense. 800V systems would double the power over 400V. 270kW ~= 2 * 150kW (account for some fudge factors). Clearly you need nearly 150kW at 400V if you're to be able to get nearly 300kW at 800V.

Yah, the charge port cables need to handle ~350A for 150kW @ 400V or 270kw @ 800V. The issue is input voltage vs pack voltage. If the charge input is 400V DC and the pack is 800V, then the car needs a boost converter. So stock is a 50kW version. The upgrade could be a 150kW 400V to 800V converter or switching contactors to take the pack from 2s to 2p (so no converter loss).

But then the Roadster 2 couldn't have demo'd repeated 0-70 mph windsprints for over an hour at the reveal event. They did perhaps 50 test rides back2back? An AC motor (or 3) would have melted under that duty cycle.

No, Elon selected the SRPM design years ago for its superior characteristics. He's an excellent engineer.

Roadster could indeed be dual rear PMSR motors, and likely are if the 250MPH is sustainable (plus it lines up with the 3 and semi development).

My point was that you can hit the performance numbers with multiples of the original motors (but perhaps not the thermal). 0-70 on a 5,000lb vehicle is 0.308 kWh, done in 2 seconds it is 554 kW average -> 1108kW peak. 1,110kJ @80% efficiency = 222kJ of heat. If the drive unit were 200kg of aluminum, that would be ~1 degree C rise per launch. With the cooling and time between runs, it is not a lot of heating. Sustained high speed operation is an entirely different matter.

-----
Going back to the Taycan regen number, that would be helpful for track use, since energy is proportional to the square of speed. I also had the wrong weight, the Taycan is 5,100 the Macan is 4,100. 256kW would bleed 4 MPH per second off the car at 140MPH or only 0.18 G.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Hmmm NASDAQ is falling but TSLA is climbing rather rapidly

Was pretty disappointed that the MMD was strong enough to wipe the momentum from the close yesterday but at least it's showing some strength at the moment.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Was pretty disappointed that the MMD was strong enough to wipe the momentum from the close yesterday but at least it's showing some strength at the moment.

I noticed every trading day with a decent run-up of TSLA is followed by massive short selling the next morning. As if they want to keep the lid on the popcorn kettle.

Why aren’t there some big investors joining forces to counter the shorting?

At some point it should become too costly for the shorts, we just need a few days of sustained buying to break the trend. Once the shorts give up, this stock will go back to the mid 300’s, so you’d think for the big investors out there, this presents an easy opportunity to make a massive gain.

 

[mongo]

I noticed every trading day with a decent run-up of TSLA is followed by massive short selling the next morning. As if they want to keep the lid on the popcorn kettle.

Why aren’t there some big investors joining forces to counter the shorting?

At some point it should become too costly for the shorts, we just need a few days of sustained buying to break the trend. Once the shorts give up, this stock will go back to the mid 300’s, so you’d think for the big investors out there, this stock presents an easy opportunity to make a massive gain.

Everyone has a limit as to how much of one stock they will put in their portfolio.
My limit is the lack of money available.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I noticed every trading day with a decent run-up of TSLA is followed by massive short selling the next morning. As if they want to keep the lid on the popcorn kettle.

Why aren’t there some big investors joining forces to counter the shorting?

At some point it should become too costly for the shorts, we just need a few days of sustained buying to break the trend. Once the shorts give up, this stock will go back to the mid 300’s, so you’d think for the big investors out there, this presents an easy opportunity to make a massive gain.

Thus why some of us believe that's there is some coordinated manipulation happening between multiple big Wall St funds in the background

 

[Stars aligned]

View attachment 451198

New numbers out of Germany today that should spark debate. 4th largest economy in the world, third largest export economy in the world, largest trade surplus of any economy in the world. And then this graph.

So are these figures because:
a) many of its largest export markets are themselves evidencing signs of underlying slowdown or early recession signs (US, China, UK), or
b) because as Merkel claimed “1/7 German jobs indirectly depends on the auto industry” and Tesla / Chinese EVs are quietly suffocating them (about a fifth of steady state exports are autos).

Any data monkeys out there want to venture a guess? Either way, for now I am content with my dual strategy of gold/gilts and TSLA.

My guess is Osborning. Many are avoiding German cars now (including me) for good reasons, which may well lead in a recession there. But on the other hand, Tesla and the US will profit. Impossible though for me to guestimate the broader side effects and how far this can spread.

Tesla factory should be built up in Europe asap to ease some pain, imo, or German carmakers acquire Tesla technology, even if expensive. But I bet Musk will not be cooperative in the latter.

Germany needs to reinvent itself, they were sleeping on the steering wheel and their autopilot wasn't very advanced so to speak. This will take time and lead to some unrest, I fear.

 

[vgrinshpun]

You're missing one of the most important reasons why Tesla is adopting SRPM motors: the torque vs. rpm limits associated with AC induction motors (as per your chart).

Switched Reluctance Permanent Magnet (SRPM) motors do not suffer from the back-EMF effects that limit rpm in AC motors. Indeed, in laboratories switched reluctance motors have run up to 500K to 750K rpm.

Ask yourself how Tesla is able to achieve a 250+ mph top speed AND a 8.9 sec Quarter Mile time for the Roadster 2 with one configuration WITHOUT a multispeed gearbox?

The answer is simple: SRPM motors aren't rpm limit due to back EMF. I think the simplicity of this fact is the reason few people around here understand it. But Elon isn't simple like that. He's foremost a scientist and an engineer, like this:

The case for switched reluctance motors | Powerelectronics.com

"Torque production is unaffected by motor speed. This is unlike ac motors where, in the field-weakening region, rotor current increasingly lags behind the rotating field as motor rpm rises."​

That's how Elon rolls. And that's why Tesla's rule.

Cheers!

Why do you think that M3 and Raven rear motors are switched Reluctance? The description Tesla included on their EPA application does not seem to support this.

https://iaspub.epa.gov/otaqpub/display_file.jsp?docid=46585&flag=1

 

[Tslynk67]

With all this boring SP these day, decided to spice things up and grab 10 of those $1 Jan 15 2021 calls...

Yes, I realise I'm probably losing $1000 here, but what the hell!

 

[JRP3]

Leaked pics of Tesla's locally-produced Model 3 battery, Giga 3 interior emerge from China

Looks like modules being shipped to GF3 for assembly into packs on site

 

[Nocturnal]

v1 of the FSD computer won't do this. You'd need the data center to train the AI on the collected data, and then it wouldn't be real time (you'd have to download a new NN version to see any change based on learning/experience).

All is not lost however, Those types of AI 'on-chip' learning features are exactly what's planned for v2 of the FSD chip. Elon said at the Autonomy Investor Day event that the next gen chip design was about 40% done. When its ready, it'll be able to learn from the driver, and hopefully, learn from its own mistakes.

When it can do that, its well howdy.

Cheers!

We aren't there yet. In the nearish future though, we will have FSD cars beating professional drivers. I might be sitting in the stands and watching my car race while I drink beer.

My guess is Osborning. Many are avoiding German cars now (including me) for good reasons, which may well lead in a recession there. But on the other hand, Tesla and the US will profit. Impossible though for me to guestimate the broader side effects and how far this can spread.

Tesla factory should be built up in Europe asap to ease some pain, imo, or German carmakers acquire Tesla technology, even if expensive. But I bet Musk will not be cooperative in the latter.

Germany needs to reinvent itself, they were sleeping on the steering wheel and their autopilot wasn't very advanced so to speak. This will take time and lead to some unrest, I fear.

I haven't done any research, but my perception is that the German economy hasn't really begun moving forward. At least in growth areas like green tech. ​

 

[StealthP3D]

Does anyone else thing the 2019.32 release feature of letting you know there is software available was added so if v10 is ready by end of quarter they can get as many installs as possible so they can recognize more of the FSD revenue? It makes me feel like whatever is in 10 would allow for recognizing a lot of the revenue.

I don't think the accounting rules require the owner to actually install the update for the extra revenue to be recognized. Making the update available to each owner would be all that was required. And it's my understanding that the update downloads to each car automatically, it is only the install that requires the user to take action. So the revenue will be realized (as a delivered feature) whether or not the owner installs it before the EOQ.