Wow, you´re right. Good eye. Half way through the video, at about 7 seconds, the Model S gained 5 frames over the Taycan in 5 seconds! Meaning about 4% faster, or 18 seconds faster on the whole lap in extrapolation! My approach was to use as much as possible of the video to minimize relative error and didn´t catch the deceleration at the end. That, however means that the driver was not even going at the limit (not driving ideal line, braking in between).
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
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Wow, you´re right. Good eye. Half way through the video, at about 7 seconds, the Model S gained 5 frames over the Taycan in 5 seconds! Meaning about 4% faster, or 18 seconds faster on the whole lap in extrapolation! My approach was to use as much as possible of the video to minimize relative error and didn´t catch the deceleration at the end. That, however means that the driver was not even going at the limit (not driving ideal line, braking in between).
Antares Nebula
Active Member
You're right, it wasn't a debate. I was being much too nice!
(Just remember, all the uberbulls here said that JB Straubel was not quiting Tesla, when I argued otherwise. Check your biases. Just saying!)
First, I'm loving all the pointless analysis! Feels like we're looking at U2 pictures of Cuba in 1961.
Second, yes, they aren't synched, but not for lack of trying. When one frame was lined up, they'd be off a frame or two later. It's weird - almost like trying to align telecined videos, and it's possible that's exactly what the problem is. The video I downloaded and uploaded was 25fps. It was probably shot at 30 or 60fps. So there may have been some frame dropping that means every frame is not 1/25s long. So there's about a +/-0.5 frame error. As someone one said, the truth is somewhere in the middle...
Love this pointless analysis as well. Have not been at the ring but maybe should do it with HAL one day.
In short this sounds like, with the current production model S which never has been designed to be a track race car its extremely tight. Add a little tuning, SW update and the right suspension and wheels and a good driver with right weather- Tesla may be very close or even better.
Not to mention what will happen with Maxwell or R2. Porsche designed the Taycan for 4 years and this are the top end vehicles. Next releases will go down from here while Tesla will go up.
Having said that Porsche looks really bad already today and will be even more next year.
真実わいつも 一つ (There is always one truth).First, I'm loving all the pointless analysis! Feels like we're looking at U2 pictures of Cuba in 1961.
Second, yes, they aren't synched, but not for lack of trying. When one frame was lined up, they'd be off a frame or two later. It's weird - almost like trying to align telecined videos, and it's possible that's exactly what the problem is. The video I downloaded and uploaded was 25fps. It was probably shot at 30 or 60fps. So there may have been some frame dropping that means every frame is not 1/25s long. So there's about a +/-0.5 frame error. As someone one said, the truth is somewhere in the middle...
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Somehow I think the stock is going up because there's another company that the Q crowd can move their attention to: "WeWork"
Same hope and dreams and loss burning as when TSLA ipo'd. However all of the CEO's action is to benefit himself vs Elon's pooling all his own money and risking bankruptcy.
Same hope and dreams and loss burning as when TSLA ipo'd. However all of the CEO's action is to benefit himself vs Elon's pooling all his own money and risking bankruptcy.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
So the end of quarter push is on in the U.S., according to Fred:
Both of these are strong incentives - stronger than the end of Q2 incentives were.
This suggests that Tesla is not happy yet with the number of U.S. customers lined up in the next two weeks (i.e. lower demand than desired), at least compared to Q2, or that they have some sort of imbalance in inventory (too many AWD or too many SR+ units, etc.) which they'd like to flush by the end of the quarter.
https://electrek.co/2019/09/13/tesla-discounts-free-supercharging-end-of-the-quarter-push/
"Sources familiar with the matter told Electrek that Tesla has authorized its sales staff to offer two years of free Supercharging for new Model 3 orders that get delivered by the end of the month, which coincides with the end of the quarter."
"Furthermore, they are also authorizing sales staff to waive the fees of up to two features to match orders with inventory vehicles, which can result in important discounts."
"The features are limited to paint colors, interior, and wheels."
"For example, you could be ordering a Model 3 Standard Plus in white with 18-inch wheels for $38,990 and if Tesla happens to have the same Model 3 in red with 19-inch wheels, Tesla’s sales staff can approve the sale of the vehicle for the same price. That would result in a $3,500 discount over the price of a Model 3 Standard Plus in red with 19-inch wheels."
"Sources familiar with the matter told Electrek that Tesla has authorized its sales staff to offer two years of free Supercharging for new Model 3 orders that get delivered by the end of the month, which coincides with the end of the quarter."
"Furthermore, they are also authorizing sales staff to waive the fees of up to two features to match orders with inventory vehicles, which can result in important discounts."
"The features are limited to paint colors, interior, and wheels."
"For example, you could be ordering a Model 3 Standard Plus in white with 18-inch wheels for $38,990 and if Tesla happens to have the same Model 3 in red with 19-inch wheels, Tesla’s sales staff can approve the sale of the vehicle for the same price. That would result in a $3,500 discount over the price of a Model 3 Standard Plus in red with 19-inch wheels."
Both of these are strong incentives - stronger than the end of Q2 incentives were.
This suggests that Tesla is not happy yet with the number of U.S. customers lined up in the next two weeks (i.e. lower demand than desired), at least compared to Q2, or that they have some sort of imbalance in inventory (too many AWD or too many SR+ units, etc.) which they'd like to flush by the end of the quarter.
Darkfox021
Member
Or that Fred is full of *sugar*, as usual.
I guess it could be car type, but that is not included in the approved substitutions, so it would have to be a case of upgrading to an LR because you also get 2 bonus options.
I would suppose they have the wrong color/ interior/ wheel mix out there (too many premium colors, 19" wheels), and also have a lot of people waiting for other configs. So people waiting on white can buy now for the same price with a free color upgrade.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Netflix!
I thought Q2 already had this, slight variation of option at the same price for immediate delivery
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I have seen a noticeable uptick in car carrier trucks loaded with Teslas during my commute this week (Northern California).
JusRelax
Active Member
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40kW, 120kW, and 240kW sized systems.
Buy for:
$88,660, $192,360, $345,560 before incentives
$62,062, $134,652, $241,892 with incentives
Or subscribe and pay for what you make:
$0.129, $0.109, $0.099 per kW
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Ok, and apparently this can only happen if you order and your configuration is not available until the end of the quarter, but there's a close match in inventory.
Given that these are all high margin options, the actual extra cost of goods expense to Tesla is minimal.
The time based free supercharging incentive is nice, it's IMHO better than the 2,000 miles free supercharging perk which has a value of maybe $100?
Are we confident a Roadster would be the Taycan time around the Ring?
I am.
The reason for that confidence is 1.9 seconds 0-60, which must be due to a big battery, big rear motors and big rear tires.
So perhaps that is a clue as to how the P100D+ could overcome the Taycan's 2 speed gearing, start with an insane amount of power, even when the torque curve flattens, there is still plenty of power and momentum...
The the question then is, how much of that big battery, big motors and big tires does the P100D+ have?
I think it has the motors, not sure about tires and I don't think it has a 200kW battery.
The battery could be any number between 100kW and 200kW,,,, but more realistically between 125-150kW...
If they can somehow cram 150kW of battery into that P100D+ my hunch is that is going to help by allowing them to drive the motors harder.
In all cases tires are a limiting factor.. so how close to the limit can they go?
Where can they put that 150 Kw of battery cells? Even allowing for improvements energy density, it is a tough ask, we didn't see the frunk or the trunk, there is some room there, and one advantage of using the trunk is weight is over the rear wheels, the downside is weight may be less evenly distributed.
Keep in mind this is a prototype, the final production solution might be different.... but luggage space is always a luxury on a track car.... they just need to match the luggage space of the Taycan.
I would particularly like to hear what Fact Checking thinks of this theory... as he is the one who pointed out the advantages of the 2 speed gear box....
Also if 150kW of batteries is what it takes to beat a Taycan, a regular Raven is running for a respectable 3rd place...
I am.
The reason for that confidence is 1.9 seconds 0-60, which must be due to a big battery, big rear motors and big rear tires.
So perhaps that is a clue as to how the P100D+ could overcome the Taycan's 2 speed gearing, start with an insane amount of power, even when the torque curve flattens, there is still plenty of power and momentum...
The the question then is, how much of that big battery, big motors and big tires does the P100D+ have?
I think it has the motors, not sure about tires and I don't think it has a 200kW battery.
The battery could be any number between 100kW and 200kW,,,, but more realistically between 125-150kW...
If they can somehow cram 150kW of battery into that P100D+ my hunch is that is going to help by allowing them to drive the motors harder.
In all cases tires are a limiting factor.. so how close to the limit can they go?
Where can they put that 150 Kw of battery cells? Even allowing for improvements energy density, it is a tough ask, we didn't see the frunk or the trunk, there is some room there, and one advantage of using the trunk is weight is over the rear wheels, the downside is weight may be less evenly distributed.
Keep in mind this is a prototype, the final production solution might be different.... but luggage space is always a luxury on a track car.... they just need to match the luggage space of the Taycan.
I would particularly like to hear what Fact Checking thinks of this theory... as he is the one who pointed out the advantages of the 2 speed gear box....
Also if 150kW of batteries is what it takes to beat a Taycan, a regular Raven is running for a respectable 3rd place...
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anthonyj
Stonks
I’m at the gym just thinking to myself how Tesla came out of nowhere and took a dump on BMW/Audi/Mercedes. Their lower end sales are hurting due to the Model 3. Nothing that they can do but watch lol! Nothing! They can spend huge money and develop an EV, by that time it’s obsolete, overpriced, and NO ONE WILL WANT IT BECAUSE IT’S NOT A TESLA.
I am a car guy, 26 years old, I’ve had a 370z, 435i, 640i, BMW i3, 2 Porsche Macans, Mercedes AMG 43, BMW M2, and some other non lux cars, all bought brand new and always had buyers remorse after a couple months. My CPO P85D... nothing compares. AP1 is flocking amazing, updates are great, handles amazingly, never fails to put a smile on my face... never have to go to a smelly gas station again. It’s over folks. Everything else is a piece of *sugar*. No doubt in my mind. And to think Tesla can do all of this without marketing...
I am a car guy, 26 years old, I’ve had a 370z, 435i, 640i, BMW i3, 2 Porsche Macans, Mercedes AMG 43, BMW M2, and some other non lux cars, all bought brand new and always had buyers remorse after a couple months. My CPO P85D... nothing compares. AP1 is flocking amazing, updates are great, handles amazingly, never fails to put a smile on my face... never have to go to a smelly gas station again. It’s over folks. Everything else is a piece of *sugar*. No doubt in my mind. And to think Tesla can do all of this without marketing...
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In the long run, every car maker that survives can make money selling EVs..
But Elon is right it is all about the pace of innovation, and if I'm a competitor the pace of innovation at Tesla is keeping me awake at night..
Being better than a Tesla isn't easy, by competing with the Taycan, Tesla are saying they will do all they can to make it very difficult..
VW group has the best strategy, a high level of commitment is need to make any progress.
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