Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Our eyewitness did note that weather conditions were ideal during the lapping session, with temperatures around 64 degrees F and heavy cloud cover.

( @Fact Checking )

 

[Tslynk67]

Back to topic - seems like we have a positive note from DB:
Deutsche Bank posts bullish TSLA outlook after meeting with Tesla executive

EDIT: Haven´t heard of that analyst before "Senior Autos & Auto Technology Analyst Emmanuel Rosner" - anyone else?

Appreciate the positive noises, but his track record with $TSLA isn't the best, especially the first two ratings

Looks his advice was so bad they dragged him off the stock, then when they put him back, he was so scared he hedged with hold recos

 

[CorneliusXX]

Well I’m not getting it right now.

1. G3 very close to pushing out it’s first car
1a. China exempted Tesla from import tax
2. V10 starting to roll out and Smart Summon should be part of it, FSD revenue secured
3. Plaid just Osborned the Taycan
3a. We know Plaid will be in 3 cars, so not an overly expensive one off for Roadster
4. Tesla is now a Nurburgring record holder (as much as the Taycan was), Roadster will kill it.
5. Tesla hopefully sold some Ravens to those on the Taycan fence (you have a car to trade in in 1yr if it is too slow, vs a holding a P car invoice for a year)
6. Mid-east war possible and Tesla 3 is the only real (affordable) alternative as unlimited long range EV driving now that the Volt is dead. Wake up call that ICE is still expensive (more than just $/gal)!!

All these in a week and TSLA flat.

Sadly, we could have written this post any day during the last 5 years with similar expansionist points. And during that time Tesla has been growing phenomenally. Hopefully this year is when the wider investing population agrees.

 

[Nocturnal]

Some youtuber had an excellent point about the concerns of the Plaid S making people wait for purchase. He pointed out that this was possible, but it would be a higher priced item and more importantly might encourage some possible Taycan buyers to reconsider.

 

[StealthP3D]

The Taycan will sell their fair share of vehicles simply to their fans and others who simply do not want a Tesla. We should be happy that they are helping to expand the EV market.

I am happy that Porsche is helping to expand the EV market. But I didn't like it when their marketing releases said it would be better than those other EV's that overheat and go into "limp" mode. This sets the record straight.

I will admit that I was pleasantly surprised to see the Model S time. Great marketing for Tesla.

No surprise here (I thought the Raven P100D could likely beat the Taycan on Nurburgring). But, yeah, this will help all the people who bought into the anti-Tesla FUD understand just how good Tesla's technologies are. As I've been saying for a long time, it's not just as simple as throwing in an electric motor and a bunch of batteries and wiring the "+" to red and the "-" to black. Some people think there's nothing to electric motors and batteries but this shows just how much "special sauce" Tesla holds. Because the Taycan development was a 5 year, multi-billion $ effort and it still can't hold a candle to Tesla's family sedan EV tech, even on Porsche's home turf, a fast racetrack for sportscars.

 

[Artful Dodger]

the actual production 7 seat Model S Plaid variant that goes into production around Oct/Nov next year.

Hi, I think you that I misinterpreted Elon's tweet. What he said was the actual prototype / test mule car now at the 'ring is a 7-seater (it's been confirmed as a 2016 Model through its HOV tag). I don't think Elon was implying the next year's production car will be a 7-seater. The reason is that their is about 200 lbs of extra reinforcing of the rear frame necessary to protect the back 2 passengers. This extra weight obviously would slow down a Plaid S, so its unlikely to be revived specifcally on the highest performance version, if at all for the Model S line-up as a whole.

Yup, you were right Christine! (and I was wrong). Elon confirms 7 seats with this tweet (h/t @avoigt)

Elon Musk‏Verified account @elonmusk
Replying to @Teslarati

It’s a start. We expect these track times to be beaten by the actual production 7 seat Model S Plaid variant that goes into production around Oct/Nov next year.

9:09 AM - 17 Sep 2019​

More details coming out in Elon's tweetstorm today:

Zain‏ @ZainRaz4 2h2 hours ago
Will the 7 seat layout be a new layout?​

Elon Musk‏Verified account @elonmusk 2h2 hours ago
No, original 5 forward facing seats plus 2 rear-facing smaller seats. The new rear seats will accommodate larger passengers than before.
​

Cheers!

 

[acoste]

Racing tires or not, summer tires are not stock. You cannot order a Taycan with them.

There is quite a bit of difference between summer and racing tires, but never mind.

This is not an all season tire and nowhere on the German order site does it say so.

 

[larmor]

A

Personally I do not think this should be an embarrassment for Porsche. This is their first EV and their next will surely be better. Key positive is that it will stop the media from hyping this as a negative toward Tesla.

Hopefully, the narrative will shift from Tesla vs other EVs to EVs vs ICE. The Taycan will sell their fair share of vehicles simply to their fans and others who simply do not want a Tesla. We should be happy that they are helping to expand the EV market.

I will admit that I was pleasantly surprised to see the Model S time. Great marketing for Tesla.

Agree, the narrative will shift from finding FUD for tesla and EVs to whoa, porsche has an EV too, so people selling gasoline better take notice that there is going to be a future where they can't give away gasoline. Porsche's taycan has tremendously helped tesla here by giving validation to EVs. No one in the MSM is bemoaning a range on the taycan of 255 miles or lack of charging network to the degree that tesla had to face.

Renting solar was another great pivot shift to relieve the pain factor of getting solar. How does the commercial solar offering by tesla compare to existing commercial utility rates?

 

[M3Rider]

Because the Taycan development was a 5 year, multi-billion $ effort and it still can't hold a candle to Tesla's family sedan EV tech, even on Porsche's home turf, a fast racetrack for sportscars.

This was a clever setup - leak the unofficial track time that nobody can find in the records to lure Tesla out. Now that they know what the Tesla lap time is, they will go ahead and schedule the official lap time at the Ring and easily beat Tesla.

 

[Nate the Great]

Question for you guys. Why would Elon announce now that a new Model S is coming in October of 2020? How does that make strategic sense?

Doesn't make any sense. My first thought is to hope that he will pull this forward and release it in Q3. They have been planning for this for quite some time.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Indeed, drag due to aero is speed squared. However, power due to aero is drag * v (distance per time unit) so for the same power output, the speed impact is cubic. (Wh/km is squared, kW is cubic).
300 / ((1.035)^3) = 270.6 km/hr

Neither of you are Elon

Drag (physics) - Wikipedia

Edit: nor am I, Should that be a cube root (drag vs speed)? 296.6 KPH?
Need more coffee...

I'm starting to get confused about which of these speeds I'll never reach I should be dissatisfied with.

 

[willow_hiller]

Porsche's taycan has tremendously helped tesla here by giving validation to EVs. No one in the MSM is bemoaning a range on the taycan of 255 miles or lack of charging network to the degree that tesla had to face.

Honestly, I'm so happy when I see an electric vehicle advertisement on mainstream TV networks. Every dollar Porsche spends on producing and airing these things will lead to more EV converts, and more EV converts means more Teslas sold. It's better advertising than Tesla could pay for themselves.

 

[Nocturnal]

Honestly, I'm so happy when I see an electric vehicle advertisement on mainstream TV networks. Every dollar Porsche spends on producing and airing these things will lead to more EV converts, and more EV converts means more Teslas sold. It's better advertising than Tesla could pay for themselves.

This pissing contest about speed is definitely good for both companies. The more articles that show how fast the Taycan is and then talk about the Tesla being faster, or not, informs more people of just how fast EVs can be.

 

[Zaxxon]

Hi, I think you misinterpreted Elon's tweet. What he said was the actual prototype / test mule car now at the 'ring is a 7-seater (it's been confirmed as a 2016 Model through its HOV tag). I don't think Elon was implying the next year's production car will be a 7-seater. The reason is that their is about 200 lbs of extra reinforcing of the rear frame necessary to protect the back 2 passengers. This extra weight obviously would slow down a Plaid S, so its unlikely to be revived specifcally on the highest performance version, if at all for the Model S line-up as a whole.

Cheers!

No, he definitely is saying that an improved 7-seater Model S is in the cards. Read the whole tweet chain.

"We expect these track times to be beaten by the actual production 7 seat Model S Plaid variant that goes into production around Oct/Nov next year."

"The new rear seats will accommodate larger passengers than before."

"Rear facing, but roomier. Great for family gatherings! I did a road trip across America with my five boys & Talulah in the 7 seat Model S several years ago."

 

[larmor]

This was a clever setup - leak the unofficial track time that nobody can find in the records to lure Tesla out. Now that they know what the Tesla lap time is, they will go ahead and schedule the official lap time at the Ring and easily beat Tesla.

Good. The mission of Tesla is to accelerate the transition to EVs and hopefully other regular auto manufacturers will see the writing on the 'ring, and jump in the fray...

 

[Swampgator]

Hi, I think you misinterpreted Elon's tweet. What he said was the actual prototype / test mule car now at the 'ring is a 7-seater (it's been confirmed as a 2016 Model through its HOV tag). I don't think Elon was implying the next year's production car will be a 7-seater. The reason is that their is about 200 lbs of extra reinforcing of the rear frame necessary to protect the back 2 passengers. This extra weight obviously would slow down a Plaid S, so its unlikely to be revived specifcally on the highest performance version, if at all for the Model S line-up as a whole.

Cheers!

Oh no, that's exactly what he said. He also said the new rear seats will be larger than previously.
#smackdown

 

[Fact Checking]

This was a clever setup - leak the unofficial track time that nobody can find in the records to lure Tesla out. Now that they know what the Tesla lap time is, they will go ahead and schedule the official lap time at the Ring and easily beat Tesla.

I don't think the Porsche's Taycan's 2-motor EV technology is physically capable of Nürburgring 7:1x lap times: just two motors, just a ~93 kWh battery pack and a first generation EV technology.

(If they had such technologies they'd be able to post better than ~2.6 seconds 0-60 mph straight line performance - which they haven't.)

Porsche's 7:42 Taycan record was also carefully set so that their cash cow 4-door and 2-door ICE models would not be cannibalized by Taycan demand: the Panamera's best Nürburgring result is around 7:38, and most of the production 2-door 911's are in the 7:2x range.

So Porsche's problem: if they magically grow a much more capable EV platform (they won't), if they were beating Tesla with a 7:1x result they'd still be cannibalizing their own ICE offerings, which are still supposed to earn high margin profits in the next 3-4 years to make the Taycan investment break-even.

The Taycan is all about protecting Porsche's "racing car" niche and the halo effect, to keep customer jumping ship to Tesla. This image and their market leader position got seriously damaged today, and Elon's announcement that the Roadster 2 is expected to beat the 6:44 all time production car lap record on the Nürburgring will make everyone who truly wants to own the best racing car at minimum wait another year, before spending $200k-$300k on a Porsche that might be obsolete on arrival.

 

[RFernatt]

Myself I would be happy I got one thing for free rather than unhappy that I didn’t get two things for free. Glass half full/empty. Recommend this book on the topic: https://www.amazon.com/Unlearn-Simple-Truths-Better-Life/dp/0062905163

The other option...

 

[CorneliusXX]

Personally I do not think this should be an embarrassment for Porsche. This is their first EV and their next will surely be better. Key positive is that it will stop the media from hyping this as a negative toward Tesla.

Hopefully, the narrative will shift from Tesla vs other EVs to EVs vs ICE. The Taycan will sell their fair share of vehicles simply to their fans and others who simply do not want a Tesla. We should be happy that they are helping to expand the EV market.

I will admit that I was pleasantly surprised to see the Model S time. Great marketing for Tesla.

Agreed, in my head for no apparent reason I thought the S might just beat the taycan. 20s as a starting point is phenomenal

 

[CorneliusXX]

I actually disagree here. I’m hoping the narrative is always EV vs EV, with ICE just being that outdated trash nobody cares about comparing against.

In a late update Seabiscut just lost the Kentucky derby to a Lamborghini Aventador by 4 minutes.