Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

Personally I do not think this should be an embarrassment for Porsche. This is their first EV and their next will surely be better. Key positive is that it will stop the media from hyping this as a negative toward Tesla.

I disagree, I think this could be a catastrophe for Porsche: the Taycan EV platform took 6 years and billions of dollars to develop, and Porsche expects to sell hundreds of thousands of high margin ICE Porsche's alongside the Taycan to turn the Taycan investment into a break-even investment by 2023.

Anyone who thinks that Porsche can turn on a dime and tweak and iterate their EV platforms like Tesla does has no idea about how inflexible the German automotive industry still is even today. New car platforms take years to develop, generally require new factories to be built, and are only iterated incrementally, with comparably minor changes. [Maybe @avoigt can confirm.]

I believe Tesla's manufacturing and refresh flexibility derives in part from their unified "Tesla Manufacturing Operating System", which provides a single platform and programming interface for all the automation they are using. The German automotive manufacturing status quo is a fractured, heterogeneous mess where each tool manufacturer has a different programming platform and the tools rarely interoperate. In Tesla's factories the Kuka robots, the hydraulic presses and most of the other equipment are all running the same OS under Tesla's control, which is a big advantage:

'The system that controls the whole intricate dance is Tesla’s Manufacturing Operating System, which was built completely in-house, and has evolved to support nearly all of the company’s manufacturing equipment. “The custom-built operating system has allowed Tesla to fine-tune its equipment and processes,” Field writes. “It clearly comes at a cost, as every change must be vetted and developed internally, but the upshot of the additional internal complexity is flexibility. Tesla can quickly come up with a new improvement or change to its products, equipment, or centerlines and implement it before another automaker would even be able to get a formal proposal together to send to a vendor.”'​

[IIRC @schonelucht is working in that industry and might be able to confirm.]

Tesla's "continuous refreshes" concept, where within 10 years they were able to constantly improve the platform is basically unheard of in the automotive industry. The closest parallel among manufacturing companies I can think of is ... SpaceX.

 

[Fact Checking]

There seems to be two variants of EAP, some have it and others don't. The initial bunch of folks who reported on twitter and Reddit didn't have Summon. There are a few since then who are reporting Enh Summon.

My guess is that Tesla might have toned down the FSD promises in later versions of EAP, and is tracking those orders and delivery milestones separately?

I'm pretty sure they are tracking deferred revenue on a per VIN and per specific configuration and EAP/FSD/Autopilot version basis, which should be capable of capturing such complexities on the database level.

 

[M3Rider]

I don't think the Porsche's Taycan's 2-motor EV technology is physically capable of Nürburgring 7:1x lap times: just two motors, just a ~93 kWh battery pack and a first generation EV technology.

(If they had such technologies they'd be able to post better than ~2.6 seconds 0-60 mph straight line performance - which they haven't.)

I just had to give them some ammo and adding the usual , /s, lolz would make it too obvious.

 

[VValleyEV]

I agree with the sentiment here that the Porsche Taycan reveal, track time reveal, and response from Tesla are all great for both companies.

EXCEPT:

So Porsche's problem: if they magically grow a much more capable EV platform (they won't), if they were beating Tesla with a 7:1x result they'd still be cannibalizing their own ICE offerings, which are still supposed to earn high margin profits in the next 3-4 years to make the Taycan investment break-even.

AND one other thing:

When I watched the Porsche reveal live reveal, it was a nice spectacle except with precious little information about the car itself beyond some really nice photos and that track time, and how much money they spent developing it. And something made me cringe that I am wondering whether anyone else noticed: the boasts about the Porsche cars having “soul”. Seems to me that if you boast about it, you don’t got it, or maybe you just sold it.

 

[SpaceCash]

Can you please provide the performance history of your hunches - I just need to know how reliable they are and whether I should trade on them. Consider me a potential customer. Oh, fee breakdown too please.

How about you just chill out when you see that I'm right today. And then tell your bosses to cover

 

[acoste]

So Porsche's problem: if they magically grow a much more capable EV platform (they won't), if they were beating Tesla with a 7:1x result they'd still be cannibalizing their own ICE offerings, which are still supposed to earn high margin profits in the next 3-4 years to make the Taycan investment break-even.

https://www.maxim.com/rides/new-porsches-electric-by-2025

Porsche increases stake in electric car maker Rimac Automobili to 15.5% – TechCrunch

 

[RobbyJ]

So has anyone noticed the lack of leaked emails of sale and delivery projections etc. this quarter compared to the previous quarter?
They must not need the positive leaks this time around.I got a good feeling about this quarter, the silence is a good sign I think...

 

[Steve m]

AND one other thing:

...

And something made me cringe that I am wondering whether anyone else noticed: the boasts about the Porsche cars having “soul”. Seems to me that if you boast about it, you don’t got it, or maybe you just sold it.

I am pretty sure my, long gone, 1966 VW sunroof bus had a gremlin rather then a soul.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

I don't think the Porsche's Taycan's 2-motor EV technology is physically capable of Nürburgring 7:1x lap times: just two motors, just a ~93 kWh battery pack and a first generation EV technology.

(If they had such technologies they'd be able to post better than ~2.6 seconds 0-60 mph straight line performance - which they haven't.)

Porsche's 7:42 Taycan record was also carefully set so that their cash cow 4-door and 2-door ICE models would not be cannibalized by Taycan demand: the Panamera's best Nürburgring result is around 7:38, and most of the production 2-door 911's are in the 7:2x range.

So Porsche's problem: if they magically grow a much more capable EV platform (they won't), if they were beating Tesla with a 7:1x result they'd still be cannibalizing their own ICE offerings, which are still supposed to earn high margin profits in the next 3-4 years to make the Taycan investment break-even.

The Taycan is all about protecting Porsche's "racing car" niche and the halo effect, to keep customer jumping ship to Tesla. This image and their market leader position got seriously damaged today, and Elon's announcement that the Roadster 2 is expected to beat the 6:44 all time production car lap record on the Nürburgring will make everyone who truly wants to own the best racing car at minimum wait another year, before spending $200k-$300k on a Porsche that might be obsolete on arrival.

somebody gotta ask Elon whether Roadster 2 is gonna beat the Porsche 919 Hybrid Evo, which, albeit a prototype, has a 5:19.546 record.

The hardcore smackdown will have to destroy everything that has anything to do with internal combustion engine.

 

[FreqFlyer]

I disagree, I think this could be a catastrophe for Porsche: the Taycan EV platform took 6 years and billions of dollars to develop, and Porsche expects to sell hundreds of thousands of high margin ICE Porsche's alongside the Taycan to turn the Taycan investment into a break-even investment by 2023.

Anyone who thinks that Porsche can turn on a dime and tweak and iterate their EV platforms like Tesla does has no idea about how inflexible the German automotive industry still is even today. New car platforms take years to develop, generally require new factories to be built, and are only iterated incrementally, with comparably minor changes. [Maybe @avoigt can confirm.]

I believe Tesla's manufacturing and refresh flexibility derives in part from their unified "Tesla Manufacturing Operating System", which provides a single platform and programming interface for all the automation they are using. The German automotive manufacturing status quo is a fractured, heterogeneous mess where each tool manufacturer has a different programming platform and the tools rarely interoperate. In Tesla's factories the Kuka robots, the hydraulic presses and most of the other equipment are all running the same OS under Tesla's control, which is a big advantage:

'The system that controls the whole intricate dance is Tesla’s Manufacturing Operating System, which was built completely in-house, and has evolved to support nearly all of the company’s manufacturing equipment. “The custom-built operating system has allowed Tesla to fine-tune its equipment and processes,” Field writes. “It clearly comes at a cost, as every change must be vetted and developed internally, but the upshot of the additional internal complexity is flexibility. Tesla can quickly come up with a new improvement or change to its products, equipment, or centerlines and implement it before another automaker would even be able to get a formal proposal together to send to a vendor.”'​

[IIRC @schonelucht is working in that industry and might be able to confirm.]

Tesla's "continuous refreshes" concept, where within 10 years they were able to constantly improve the platform is basically unheard of in the automotive industry. The closest parallel among manufacturing companies I can think of is ... SpaceX.

From a Taycan forum (yeah, they one of those already, go figure). A poster named BayareaKen posted this snapshot from the Economist mag

Notice the Porsche line under Operating profit...........I wouldn't worry too much about Porsche long term.

 

[Fact Checking]

So has anyone noticed the lack of leaked emails of sale and delivery projections etc. this quarter compared to the previous quarter?
They must not need the positive leaks this time around.I got a good feeling about this quarter, the silence is a good sign I think...

Yes, agreed:

Agreed, and I commented on the curious lack of genuine leaks (of "sources familiar with the matter") and "leaks" (of widely distributed internal emails) about Q3 production and deliveries too.

To recap Q3 market expectations:

• Guidance for 2019 was 360k-400k total deliveries in 2019 and a sequential increase in Q3: "We are working to increase our deliveries sequentially and annually, with some expected fluctuations from seasonality. This is consistent with our previous guidance of 360,000 to 400,000 vehicle deliveries this year."
  • Q2 total deliveries were 95,200, so that's the minimum to meet,
  • Q1+Q2 total deliveries were 158,200, so the guidance range for the second half of the year is 201,800-241,800 - which assuming an even split between Q3 and Q4 would mean a Q3 guidance of 100,900-120,900 - the higher guidance would control, so I think we can safely assume that hitting 100,000 is a minimum goal required of Tesla.
• The year-before Q3'2018 was 83,500 deliveries of high ASP units, 55,840 Model 3's and 26,660 Model S/X's.
• Q2'2019 Model 3 deliveries were 77,550, and Model S/X deliveries were 17,650, so that's a minimum bar to meet as well.

To meet guidance Tesla would have to deliver about 17.6k Model S/X's, and at minimum of 83,250 Model 3's, for a total of at least 100,900 units delivered - but there's probably more than that realized in the price already, based on European deliveries tracking better than Q2 - although U.S. deliveries were tracking worse than Q2.

But I wrote this before @KarenRei quoted the FactSet expectations, which are 97,000 deliveries for Q3:

"Wall Street currently expects about 97,000 deliveries for the third quarter, according to FactSet, up slightly from the second"

Tesla Stock Has Risen This Month as Its Third-Quarter Numbers Approach

So 97,000 is my Q3 deliveries expectation too.

 

[Fact Checking]

somebody gotta ask Elon whether Roadster 2 is gonna beat the Porsche 919 Hybrid Evo, which, albeit a prototype, has a 5:19.546 record.

I think only street legal, production cars count - racing cars that are little more than seats strapped on one-off racing engines with ~10,000 km expected life time absolutely not!

 

[kbM3]

Already known, but thanks for checking again

The Taycan was also pre-production (the "record" was "set" before the official production start date given out by Porsche), stripped and with a roll-cage, and on non-stock, unnamed "summer tires" (you can only configure the vehicle with all-seasons) (Porsche gave out deliberately misleading wording, stating that it was on "production 21-inch wheels wrapped in summer tires" - the wheels are indeed stock (the 21" 'Mission E' wheels), but the tires are not available stock).

The trolls on Electrek and Reddit are claiming Plaid is using non street legal track only tires. Does anyone know which tires they are actually using?

 

[mongo]

somebody gotta ask Elon whether Roadster 2 is gonna beat the Porsche 919 Hybrid Evo, which, albeit a prototype, has a 5:19.546 record.

The hardcore smackdown will have to destroy everything that has anything to do with internal combustion engine.

View attachment 455934

Roadster 2 with SpaceX will trounce it. Might without too...

I think only street legal, production cars count - racing cars that are little more than seats strapped on one-off racing engines with ~10,000 km expected life time absolutely not!

Their only hope is that since the 919 was in the prototype category, and Roadster 2 is production, it won't count...

 

[Nocturnal]

The trolls on Electrek and Reddit are claiming Plaid is using non street legal track only tires. Does anyone know which tires they are actually using?

Would that even be allowed on the ring? It's not really a private road right? I don't believe that anyway, there are plenty of crazy expensive street tires with equivalent performance.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

I think only street legal, production cars count - racing cars that are little more than seats strapped on one-off racing engines with ~10,000 km expected life time absolutely not!

Just beating every street legal production car would be tremendous already.

Still I think Roadster 2 has a decent chance of going faster than the 919 Hybrid. Just shut them up once and for all.

The 919’s top speed during its run is 369 km/h, while the Roadster can do 400+ km/h.

Roadster also accelerates faster.

But then there is the question of corning handling, as Roaster will definitely be heavier.

I watched the 919 Hybrid’s run, and with 5:19, the overall speed is horrifying indeed.

 

[204EV]

Just beating every street legal production car would be tremendous already.

Still I think Roadster 2 has a decent chance of going faster than the 919 Hybrid. Just shut them up once and for all.

The 919’s top speed during its run is 369 km/h, while the Roadster can do 400+ km/h.

Roadster also accelerates faster.

But then there is the question of corning handling, as Roaster will definitely be heavier.

I watched the 919 Hybrid’s run, and with 5:19, the overall speed is horrifying indeed.

I dont think the Aero of a production looking car can do those times.. that is plainly a grip problem that wide tires cant solve. But getting sub 6:30 would be absolute INSANITY

 

[humbaba]

I dont think the Aero of a production looking car can do those times.. that is plainly a grip problem that wide tires cant solve. But getting sub 6:30 would be absolute INSANITY

well, someone suggested the SpaceX package might solve that problem. But using that would no doubt engender much wailing, gnashing of teeth, and screams about not playing fair.

 

[Singuy]

This pissing contest about speed is definitely good for both companies. The more articles that show how fast the Taycan is and then talk about the Tesla being faster, or not, informs more people of just how fast EVs can be.

LoL, no. Articles will show Taycan's crazy speed and Tesla's service hell and exploding batteries. Will collage a picture of Porsche's customer service with champagne in the hands of an owner while they wait for a totaled car to be fixed while the Tesla customer having to use the dirty subway system with graffiti for half a year while they wait for a wheel alignment.

 

[Nocturnal]

LoL, no. Articles will show Taycan's crazy speed and Tesla's service hell and exploding batteries. Will collage a picture of Porsche's customer service with champagne in the hands of an owner while they wait for a totaled car to be fixed while the Tesla customer having to use the dirty subway system with graffiti for half a year while they wait for a wheel alignment.

Google disagrees. The days of that sort of FUD really moving things are behind us IMO.

taycan vs tesla - Google Search