Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Well I’m not getting it right now.

1. G3 very close to pushing out it’s first car
1a. China exempted Tesla from import tax
2. V10 starting to roll out and Smart Summon should be part of it, FSD revenue secured
3. Plaid just Osborned the Taycan
3a. We know Plaid will be in 3 cars, so not an overly expensive one off for Roadster
4. Tesla is now a Nurburgring record holder (as much as the Taycan was), Roadster will kill it.
5. Tesla hopefully sold some Ravens to those on the Taycan fence (you have a car to trade in in 1yr if it is too slow, vs a holding a P car invoice for a year)
6. Mid-east war possible and Tesla 3 is the only real (affordable) alternative as unlimited long range EV driving now that the Volt is dead. Wake up call that ICE is still expensive (more than just $/gal)!!

All these in a week and TSLA flat.

Not to worry: a crack team of analcysts from M-S + G-S + UBS is on it.

 

[dww12]

I will keep it for now, if nothing else as a reminder of how good intentions can go wrong, especially when they are hijacked by those with ill intentions (no proof, just an educated guess - anyone know?).

Also I am looking forward to the “fart on backup” feature.

OMG, I’d like to change my answer to this.

 

[Stars aligned]

This latest head fake has caught me flat footed again. Simple fact is TSLA just does not trade like other stocks. The strength it showed going to 254 like a bat outta hell...is just gone. Manipulators cashing in big time all the time on this one. Good for them I guess.

Actually when it approached 254, it was pretty obvious in red hot zone. This is not a hindsight armchair analysis, you might check out my post in the Technical Analysis thread before the drop. But of course, everyone and his cat were highly enthusiastic back then...

Right now the probability to go higher is very good, with careful longs, and shorts trying to keep the pressure in the boiler. Some interesting chart formation are forming, and the major downtrend exhausted and reversed beginning of June.

 

[Pezpunk]

Quote from the article : "Together with the Tesla a container from America arrived at the ring. Its content: a large diesel engine. This generates the power to charge the Model S. Since it is noisy day and night, it has already attracted the annoyance of the residents."

The irony strikes me...

residents are complaining about noise from a diesel engine ... when they live next to a racetrack?

 

[acoste]

Already known, but thanks for checking again

The Taycan was also pre-production (the "record" was "set" before the official production start date given out by Porsche), stripped and with a roll-cage, and on non-stock, unnamed "summer tires" (you can only configure the vehicle with all-seasons) (Porsche gave out deliberately misleading wording, stating that it was on "production 21-inch wheels wrapped in summer tires" - the wheels are indeed stock (the 21" 'Mission E' wheels), but the tires are not available stock).

Summer tires don't mean racing tires. If you KNOW any modifications compared to the stock car, please provide links. Roll cage is pretty understandable.

 

[jhm]

Well I’m not getting it right now.

1. G3 very close to pushing out it’s first car
1a. China exempted Tesla from import tax
2. V10 starting to roll out and Smart Summon should be part of it, FSD revenue secured
3. Plaid just Osborned the Taycan
3a. We know Plaid will be in 3 cars, so not an overly expensive one off for Roadster
4. Tesla is now a Nurburgring record holder (as much as the Taycan was), Roadster will kill it.
5. Tesla hopefully sold some Ravens to those on the Taycan fence (you have a car to trade in in 1yr if it is too slow, vs a holding a P car invoice for a year)
6. Mid-east war possible and Tesla 3 is the only real (affordable) alternative as unlimited long range EV driving now that the Volt is dead. Wake up call that ICE is still expensive (more than just $/gal)!!

All these in a week and TSLA flat.

Those are all positive points. Have you been introduced to the theory of news nullification? The ideas is that we face aggressive scorched-earth shorts who will deliberately attack the stock price whenever there is good news so as to reframe and counteract the impact of that good news. When the market "reacts" negative to news, the perception is created that investors see the news as negative or inadequate to make up for other negatives. Hence, the news is nullified.

 

[lascavarian]

Be a shame if that apparently easily accessible speaker under the front bottom cowling got accidentally disconnected somehow....

Recently had an annual inspection on Model 3. Shop did very little so they could at least check the operation of the annoyance maker similar to checking that the signal lights work

 

[FreqFlyer]

Tesla (TSLA) Reveals: China and Model Y Are Keys to the Future

Tesla (TSLA) Reveals: China and Model Y Are Keys to the Future


Model Y

Speaking of which, Tesla is planning to unleash the Model Y on the market in the fall of 2020. In addition to sharing parts with the Model 3, Tesla expects the new electro-buggy to command higher prices because customers generally are willing to pay $4,000 to $5,000 more for an SUV than for a sedan of comparable characteristics -- even though the Model Y's "cost to manufacture will be similar to" that of the Model 3.

In other words, the extra $4,000 to $5,000 will be pure profit, falling straight to Tesla's bottom line.

 

[deffu]

Hmm, that sounds like me! While most poor people were born into poverty that they can't get out of, I became poor via a pattern of poor choices of buying TSLAs at the highest stock price with most of my assets. Ouch!

Yes, some people are poor, often because of a pattern of remarkably poor choices.

What does that have to do with the many, many thousands that purchase a Honda Accord, Toyota Camry, or Honda Civic?

All of those cost more than, or about as much as, a Model 3, and they cost FAR more if the Model 3 is powered by solar panels.

When more people become aware of the pure fiscal reasons to own a Tesla (discounting the far more important reason of having a livable planet), Tesla sales will increase exponentially.

Sadly, most people are remarkably clueless on this planetary-scale threat. Our job should be expand on the threat posed by the status quo--the rest will take care of itself:

Twelve years to save Earth? Make that 18 months...

Climate change: 12 years to save the planet? Make that 18 months


And:

https://jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=7322

About the size of Florida, Thwaites Glacier is currently responsible for approximately 4 percent of global sea level rise. It holds enough ice to raise the world ocean a little over 2 feet (65 centimeters) and backstops neighboring glaciers that would raise sea levels an additional 8 feet (2.4 meters) if all the ice were lost.

[truncated]

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Summer tires don't mean racing tires. If you KNOW any modifications compared to the stock car, please provide links. Roll cage is pretty understandable.

Racing tires or not, summer tires are not stock. You cannot order a Taycan with them.

 

[Stars aligned]

residents are complaining about noise from a diesel engine ... when they live next to a racetrack?

Yeah, here in Europe, racetracks are not busy day and night, you know. And sometimes people need to sleep, at least here.

Anyway, a better solution should be expected from Tesla. Why not bring a Megapack to the place? Germany is flooded with green electricity. And for sure there are power outlets nearby. A victory there should not be compromised by unnecessary dirty power production.

But, in best case and that's my hope, this part has just been made up by the newspaper.

 

[EVNow]

Advanced Summon does appear to be in V10, according to @ZachShahan:

Tesla Autopilot & Lane Change Improvements — Tesla Software V10 (Review) | CleanTechnica

'Aside from “Tesla Theater,” the coolest new feature in V10 software has to be the Advanced Summon feature. I was able to watch it in action, but it didn’t seem appropriate or considerate to record the car using this feature while it’s still only available to Early Access Tesla owners. It’s wild, though, and I’ll be sure to create and share videos of my Model 3 using Enhanced Summon once it’s in wide release.'​

It's unclear whether owners of "EAP" would receive it, but I see no reason why not if FSD owners receive it?

There seems to be two variants of EAP, some have it and others don't. The initial bunch of folks who reported on twitter and Reddit didn't have Summon. There are a few since then who are reporting Enh Summon.

 

[MP3Mike]

Racing tires or not, summer tires are not stock. You cannot order a Taycan with them.

A Taycan Turbo S comes standard with the 21" Mission E wheels and summer tires. (And you can optionally select the all season tires.)

Of course I can't find on their site where they say summer tires anymore, but why would it come with all season tires with an option for all season tires?

 

[deffu]

One tesla owner friend told me he was awarded priority access via a bunch of successful referral. maybe that's the type of EAP that didnt get summon?

There seems to be two variants of EAP, some have it and others don't. The initial bunch of folks who reported on twitter and Reddit didn't have Summon. There are a few since then who are reporting Enh Summon.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

The new Tesla coffee cups are incredibly flimsy. This can only mean one of two things: pwofitability or bankwuptcy

flimsy fwimsy

Can you please provide the performance history of your hunches - I just need to know how reliable they are and whether I should trade on them. Consider me a potential customer. Oh, fee breakdown too please.

Previous posts indicate your "Club" has a Wife. Please PM the club's membership requirements, oh and is it a time-share kind of thing, or...?

 

[EcoBruin]

One tesla owner friend told me he was awarded priority access via a bunch of successful referral. maybe that's the type of EAP that didnt get summon?

Unfortunately that reward hasn’t shown any priority at all. I received the same referral award and haven’t noticed any advantage over the wide roll out of updates

 

[avoigt]

Elon just confirmed that the Plaid Model S did beat the Taycan time at the Nürburgring and the production model planned for autumn 2020 will do even better.

Also interesting that the Model 3 Performance will beat the Taycan on more laps which confirms it to have more range.

Thats quite an embarrassment for Porsche. There is no exclusivity any more for having one and 3 time the price is no justified at all.

Latest at this point in time Porsche Management needs to acknowledge they lost for now and my prediction is it won't get better. Time to have some panic IMO.

Hard times ahead.

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[M3Rider]

Tesla (TSLA) Reveals: China and Model Y Are Keys to the Future

Tesla (TSLA) Reveals: China and Model Y Are Keys to the Future


Model Y

Speaking of which, Tesla is planning to unleash the Model Y on the market in the fall of 2020. In addition to sharing parts with the Model 3, Tesla expects the new electro-buggy to command higher prices because customers generally are willing to pay $4,000 to $5,000 more for an SUV than for a sedan of comparable characteristics -- even though the Model Y's "cost to manufacture will be similar to" that of the Model 3.

In other words, the extra $4,000 to $5,000 will be pure profit, falling straight to Tesla's bottom line.

Somehow I doubt that. They will target 25% profits. Any excess will result in price drops and savings passed on to the customers. Possibly, prices will drop on both 3 & Y, so even if Y has a higher margin, then 3 will have a lower margin and both on average is 25%.

Moreover, the talk of profits this quarter, I feel it could be a repeat of the last quarter. So, sorta expecting pump and dump, but wishing this would stop and the stock would appreciate slowly instead. It feels like any expectations of a quick buck are unfounded, what is really happening is a slow dismantling of the ICE industry, so some years down the road this will become a common knowledge that competing with Tesla is hard and anybody doing so is under extreme pressure and in trouble. But including GF3, we should see better results after the ramp, definitely.

I also think it is plausible that Elon counted on FSD income this quarter to offset the previous price drops, so windfall profits are not very likely.

 

[StealthP3D]

residents are complaining about noise from a diesel engine ... when they live next to a racetrack?

That was my thought exactly.

Then it occurred to me they were probably talking about the track residents (regular track junkies/enthusiasts) who were irritated that the generator represented the car that was leaving their expensive performance gas cars irrelevant.

 

[AudubonB]

MODERATOR:

No further discussion in THIS thread of:

Poverty vs jet plane pounds per gallon vs leaf sweeping.

Whether those dancing on needle points are angels or demons.

Just.

STOP.