Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Todd Burch]

Elon’s manners just now on Twitter were worth at least another $2 a share.

if he can be on time in the future, another $5

 

[SOULPEDL]

Elon Musk two minutes ago
"Will start at ~2:15. Sorry for slight delay".

Lol, that's my nickname, "215"

 

[Cobbler]

It's not waiting if you are living your life. Stop watching the ticker and live some. It's nice if you can live a fun, fulfilling life while watching your retirement fund balloon like rabbits in a cage. Most people who try to scalp a couple thousand here and there waste their lives trying and never get there anyway.

Don't "wait", "live"!

Sounds like an ad to finally buy a Tesla

 

[Cherry Wine]

Every now and then I check on what the technical pattern listed by this page is for TSLA. The pattern indicated by yesterday's chart was "Bullish Squeeze Alert", lol.

TSLA - TESLA

 

[UncaNed]

METRO I flew had a JADO Bottle in case of an engine failure...

Ahh the good ole days

Fire Away!

How long would that fire for?

 

[M|S|W]

Elon is busy posting some weird memes

 

[ZeApelido]

2:16 now. What a liar.

 

[Huskyf]

2:16 now. What a liar.

No he said ~~2.15PM

 

[Fact Checking]

Ok, I'm not smart enough to respond to this so I will put it up for discussion here and will look forward to your responses. Many of the doubters are saying "Yeah, well wait until the 10Q is filed. Then we'll see where things REALLY are." What could be in the 10Q that would shed negative light?

Dan

Incidentally I've just waded through the TSLAQ and RealTesla sewer to filter out their 10-Q arguments:

• Firstly, this is a well known shtick: after every profitable Tesla quarter they were crying "wait for the 10-Q!" - it's a delaying tactic and a Hail Mary. The 10-Q is also much larger, and usually they find some obscure detail or ambiguous statement that they can spin into a "fraud!" thesis. Remember the $100m deferred payment 10-Q disclosure hoopla in 2018 that Chanos started? Later on it turned out to be their main payment processing and clearing bank, who had over $100m of Tesla's cash stuck in wire transfers and checks because end of quarter was on a weekend. That $100m cleared in the first week of the next quarter - there was no there there.
• The main RT mod was whining about FSD deferred revenue recognition. He missed:
  1. Zack already disclosed that their Smart Summon deferred revenue recognition was $30m for NA customers - a modest amount.
  2. The Q3 balance sheet in the update letter shows further growth in deferred revenue, to $1,045m.
• Some were complaining about ZEV and other credit income, missing the following:
  1. Credit sales were modest in Q3 (around $100m),
  2. all carmakers can generate and sell or utilize ZEV credits - it's not like this was created for Tesla,
  3. ZEV credits will only increase in the future: next year Europe is going to start a massive ZEV credits program, with top credit value of ~$22,500 per ZEV car (!).
• Many expressed incredulity at Tesla becoming profitable while QoQ revenue dropped slightly. They are missing the obvious:
  1. Profit = revenue - expenses, and you can increase profits not just via higher revenue, but via lower costs as well - which is what happened in Q3.
  2. Tesla also improved the margins of their storage business, of S/X which is now primarily Raven, and has further reduced SG&A.
  3. Q2 was burdened by a one time restructuring expense - which wasn't the case in Q3,
  4. There were also FX gains - this was a headwind in Q2 and a tailwind in Q3. It's cheaper for Tesla to assume FX risks - FX futures contracts for physical currency flows are expensive and reduce margins, while not really helping with long term fluctuations. Since Tesla has no dealerships they can adjust to FX changes much faster.
• The rest were mostly various "accounting fraud" claims with no rational basis that I could identify.

In reality Q3 was a robust quarter - and Q4 should be even better.

TL;DR: I don't expect any fireworks from the 10-Q, the shorts are shellshocked and are in denial about the Q3 results.

 

[UncaNed]

Can someone please send Tesla some good music?

This elevator sound twice a week just kills me....

Someone other than Kurt Renz, please.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Never pull out! (sorry, couldn't resist)

Dan

“Pull out? Doesn’t sound very manly to me. Stay in there and get the job done!”
- from an old George Carlin routine

 

[humbaba]

Someone other than Kurt Renz, please.

how about

 

[TradingInvest]

Elon Musk: Model S, Model X production continues for ‘sentimental reasons’ – TechCrunch

Tesla continues to produce the Model S and Model X more for “sentimental reasons than anything else,” CEO Elon Musk said Wednesday during a call with investors, calling the electric vehicles “niche” products.

“They are really of minor importance to our future,” Musk added.

Why do i get the feeling the S/X may be a one chassis generation pony.

Tesla plans to build 20 million EVs a year, mostly Model Y, pickup truck, and Model 3, with high margin. Having 0.1 million S/X or not doesn't make a difference. In long term, the financial impact will be around 0.6% if S/X are not produced.

In my spreadsheet earnings will mainly come from the above three high volume vehicles plus energy and ride sharing.

 

[jhm]

I don’t like this. It feels disingenuous and misleading. Only 10% of the entire program goes towards All-Electric Vehicles and EV infrastructure, and the other 90% can go to hybrid and hydrogen vehicles.....? IMO this stinks of a GM/Ford and fossil fuel bailout. GM & Ford so they can keep making hybrids instead of getting a subsidy to take the full leap to clean EV’s - which they still have no capacity to do...and worse yet is the subsidy proposal for hydrogen vehicles. Since 95% of the hydrogen in the US is made from Natural Gas, a hydrogen vehicle can actually have greater GHG emission levels than a gasoline vehicle - which is the antithesis of a Climate Friendly Subsidy. So this smells of a play to bail out the Natural Gas industry too, which has fracked themselves into a portfolio of stranded assets. And there is nothing Climate Friendly about the Carbon Footprint and Global Impact of manufacturing a new vehicle unless it is an order of magnitude Greener than the vehicle it is replacing - and if the vehicle it is replacing is scrapped.

Schumer is trying to get something greasy passed under a misleading message instead of embracing & passing the Green New Deal.

Agree. The original cash for clunkers idea was set up to boost auto sales. This will do that too, and not just for clean cars. It will boost demand for new ICE vehicles too.

The economics is simple. Reduce the number of used vehicles on the road through incentive. This pushes up the price of used vehicles. Used car buyers pivot to buying cheap new cars, which happen to be ICE vehicles.

Definitely a bailout for US automakers struggling to offload ICE.

 

[KarenRei]

Nafnlaus on Twitter

 

[Unpilot]

METRO I flew had a JADO Bottle in case of an engine failure...

Ahh the good ole days

Fire Away!

The sewer tube!!...we had CAWI Cowl Alcohol Water Injection. The call was "CAWI on dude.






'!

 

[JusRelax]

New page up: Order your Solar Roof

 

[M3Rider]

Looks like TSLAQ is crumbing

Ryan Doherty on Twitter

I think I made TSLAQ block list, can't see it, never talked to the guy

 

[davecolene0606]

How long would that fire for?

a few seconds.. Was kinda like a model rocket engine.

Fire Away!

 

[canoemore]

Huh. That solar roof pricing seems a lot more compelling than earlier versions.