Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

Seriously doubt there will be test drives, just being on display at the show will make it a show winner.

Seriously know you never even read the article that clearly stated test drives are being given.

And I never said there’d be test drives of the Pickup. I clearly stated ‘their other vehicles’.

 

[Electroman]

The Glovis Cosmos just departed for Europe after a healthy 3+ days of loading

I remember that Glovis Cosmos was the first EU bound ship carry Model 3s in Jan/Feb, that I was tracking every day all the way to its dest port.

 

[larmor]

Lets not forget that CO2+methane is only half of the damage emissions do.

The other half is going straight into your lungs in the form of ground ozone and FPM and does plenty of damage there. We should not hesitate to bring this up to people insisting climate change is a hoax.
Lets also remind them that for EVs running on "100% coal", those emissions are not on your street and don't go directly into your lungs.

I have below articles bookmarked for ozone+FPM, will appreciate better candidates. I reference these from time to time to non-believers.

Air Pollution May Be As Harmful To Your Lungs As Smoking Cigarettes, Study Finds

Air Pollution Reduces Life Expectancy by Nearly 2 Years, Study Finds

Btw, quite often I get the reaction "hahaha, I'm planning to live 90 years, 2 years is nothing to me", which is amusing, at which point I ask them if they want this to happen to their loved ones as well and would they like to check their opinion on that, since your decision affects them as well.


Also, don't forget about this convincing right-winger:
(They may enjoy watching one of their own)

Well tesla is made in California, and that is close to but separate from America-- that is the vibe i get in Texas after having lived in CA for 12 years now Texas for 1-2 years...

 

[Nocturnal]

Lets not forget that CO2+methane is only half of the damage emissions do.

Btw, quite often I get the reaction "hahaha, I'm planning to live 90 years, 2 years is nothing to me", which is amusing, at which point I ask them if they want this to happen to their loved ones as well and would they like to check their opinion on that, since your decision affects them as well.

I'm constantly amazed by the stupidity of people. The benefit of moving pollution away from ground level and cities out to power plants is also a great point to combat the "huuurr ur car is run bY cOaL" crowd.

 

[kengchang]

Tesla Taiwan will start 2nd wave of delivery starting on 11/9, really curious what's the weekly production # on the Model 3 now.

 

[copyhacker]

You are describing the market as it today, I said years from now when an EV is no longer a novelty but commonplace outside of California. When having an EV on the dealer lot is like having a car with a different trim. From the responses I see people cannot for see a time when EVs are common place.

This conversation got started by someone stating what should Tesla be wary of, this. A market flooded with EVs.

Here's the problem as I see it with the "sleeping giants" theory:

Imagine you are the CEO of, I dunno, Ford. You're at the apex of a long and successful career. You're looking at retirement in 10 years or less. The board likes you. The suppliers like you. The customers love your pickup trucks. People write hit country songs about you.

Along comes this quirky California upstart thinks they can be the first American car maker to not go bankrupt in 100 years. Their technology is unproven by industry standards. They have one factory they bought on the cheap. They've sold some cars to greenies in California who like that they get HOV stickers. Most of your customers don't even know what an HOV sticker is. OK, they gave Porsche a run for its money on a track recently, but you just doubled down on the F-150, and you know the sedan isn't a money maker anyway. Americans like their vehicles beefy and you have the single best seller on four wheels.

Your VPs are starting to whisper that they're seeing a lot of neighbors buying Teslas and maybe this EV thing has some legs. Stupid California is making noise about emissions again. What do you do? Do you go to the board with a plan to pivot your entire century-old operation? Sink your personal reputation, throw away all your industry cred, burn your supply chain to the ground? Fire a bunch of factory workers? You know how the UAW feels about that. Commit to being unprofitable for a decade while you relearn how to make cars?

Even if you answer yes to all those questions: where ya gonna get the batteries? Are you really going to go so far out on a limb as to make your own? Or would you go shop Panasonic or LG or Samsung or one of the other couple of battery suppliers who knows they have you over a barrel along with everyone else in the industry?

Of course you're not gonna do any of that. You reassure the UAW, the suppliers, and the dealerships that you aren't going anywhere and that nobody wants a Tesla. Maybe you stick your toe in the water and do some experimenting just in case some of your greenier customers are thinking about jumping ship (and hey, if nobody buys your little experiment, even better). You do your fiduciary duty to the shareholders not to lose their money. And by the time it matters, you'll be floating away on your golden parachute.

What would it take for a captain of industry to go all in on EVs in the face of all that? As long as there's any plausible deniability whatsoever, the giants are going to keep right on sleeping.

 

[kengchang]

Business Insider - today: Fiat Chrysler’s CEO says the carmaker could buy technology from Tesla

Non Business Insider link
Fiat Chrysler's CEO says the carmaker could buy technology from Tesla

Manley also said that FCA's pooling deal with Tesla would conclude in 2021, with 2022 being the first year that the company achieves the full benefit of its own efforts.

 

[Nocturnal]

Here's the problem as I see it with the "sleeping giants" theory:

Business history is full of sleeping giants that were slain, not so full of sleeping giants that woke up and fought off the upstarts. Typically, by the time the incumbent recognizes the risk, it's already too late. The only exceptions coming to mind are cases where the incumbent had a natural monopoly (Windows for example).

The fact that executives are compensated based on quarterly/yearly performance makes this even more likely. Does the CEO of GM care if the company goes bankrupt 20 years from now? Not a chance.

 

[Tim S]

The number 1 and 2 selling cars in the US has a list price of <$20k. No way even a medium income family ($60k) can afford a BEV. Sure, a underpowered Prius hybrid could be had, but what's the fun in that butt-ugly econo-box?

Wrong. #1 is Toyota Camry. Starts at $24K.

 

[Remus]

You are describing the market as it today, I said years from now when an EV is no longer a novelty but commonplace outside of California. When having an EV on the dealer lot is like having a car with a different trim. From the responses I see people cannot for see a time when EVs are common place.

This conversation got started by someone stating what should Tesla be wary of, this. A market flooded with EVs.

Smart phones are common now, where's Nokia, Ericsson, Sony?

 

[jerry33]

Well tesla is made in California, and that is close to but separate from America-- that is the vibe i get in Texas after having lived in CA for 12 years now Texas for 1-2 years...

Texas is similar having lived there for over twenty years now.

 

[KarenRei]

First anecdote, data and statistics are completely different topics

... in that anecdotes are superceded by statistics. The presence of anecdotes simply means that the incidence rate is "greater than zero". What advantage do you see to anecdotes over actual polling?

Second, statistical validity is related to data gathering methodology and sampling process as well as data source

What statistical error (beyond your complaint of querying VIN-respondants) are you referring to?

Third, all data gathered through consumer responses is anecdotal. Data gathered through self-selection is highly prone to error.

Every single poll in existence has a response rate. Are you arguing that we should ignore every single poll in existence?

The Bloomberg survey was gathered only from people who had previously responded to Bloomberg online request

All polls attempt to gather respondents through some method of reaching out. Only those who are more motivated to take part do so.

The fact that the response rate may induce statistical biases is well known. But it does not mean that polls should just be ignored and anecdotes allowed to supercede them. If anything, I'd expect that the people most motivated to take part would be those who wanted to complain. E.g. if anything I'd argue that the results should be seen as a worst case.

During those activities as well as my own academic studies I found many examples of sampling problems, self-selection bias etc.

You can't get any worse sampling / selection bias than how people encounter anecdotes, such as:

• Going to the "service" threads of a forum and seeing people complain (as if anyone goes to a service thread to write "my service has been great!")
• Seeing anecdotes shared on social media, predominantly by people with a vested interest in promoting them.

These don't just give a biased impression - they give a nonsensical impression. It's like opening a complaints box and going, "My god, it's full of complaints!"

It's like a person in backwoods Kentucky saying, "everyone I encounter is a Republican", and refusing to trust a poll that shows that the US is roughly split between Democrats and Republicans, on the grounds that Democrats might have been more likely to respond to the pollster.

The best information we have is the per-vehicle warranty reserves created.

On one hand we have bears saying that the warranty reduction is fraud rather than representative of a lower claims rate, and on the other hand we have bulls saying that the warranty data is broadly granular and nonspecific as to be near meaningless. Pointing out warranty reserves changes is going to convince absolutely zero people to trust that over some anecdote that they just read.

Such groups tend to be nearly binary with a large group that complains regularly about many things and another, typically much large group that refuses to see problems at all.

Right. So there's supposedly some massive number of people who, since they got their car (and sent Bloomberg their VIN), have had huge problems with their vehicles failing, service nightmares, long wait times, etc etc.. but then responded to Bloomberg and lied about everything being hunky-dory?

Sorry, no. I cannot accept that premise.

It's no news flash that poll response rates and sampling issues can have various biases. But that doesn't come even close to making anecdotes supercede them. Yes, some (very large) subset of buyers submitted their VIN to Bloomberg when they got their car And some (large) subset of them responded to the survey request. So yes, biases are possible, as in any poll. I fully agree with that! But the notion that people who had problems are going to en masse lie to Bloomberg or en masse abstain, while people who didn't have problems don't, is IMHO just plain silly. And the notion that whatever response rate biases may exist is going to be on the same ballpark of the biases for encountering anecdotes? I mean, let's be real here. :Þ

 

[FreqFlyer]

Smart phones are common now, where's Nokia, Ericsson, Sony?

List of all mobile phone brands - GSMArena.com

Still here.

 

[Fact Checking]

Non Business Insider link
Fiat Chrysler's CEO says the carmaker could buy technology from Tesla

Key quotes:

• "Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas asked Manley for insight on just how much FCA is paying Tesla to pool vehicle fleets for regulatory compliance reasons in Europe, to avoid fines. The figure has been reported at levels ranging from millions to billions, but Manley declined to provide Jonas with any additional information."

IMO FCA would probably only decline to give a figure if it's high ...

It's also interesting that Adam Jonas spent his precious FCA earnings call analyst question to the CEO to inquire about ... Tesla.

• "The customer will be agnostic" to certain components, Manley said, noting that batteries and drivetrain would be among them. He added that a company could buy a "skateboard" platform from Tesla, then tune other systems, such as suspension and handling, to suit various brands (FCA already has marques as diverse as Jeep, RAM, Maserati, and Alfa Romeo in its portfolio).

Btw., "skateboard design from Tesla" would include the drive train - that's why he listed the differentiation components as "suspension" and "handling".

• "Manley also said that FCA's pooling deal with Tesla would conclude in 2021, with 2022 being the first year that the company achieves the full benefit of its own efforts."

Translation: FCA admits that they'll need Tesla's credits for at least the next 2 years. Whether they'll be able to ramp up BEV products and production by 2022 is an open question.

I'm sure Audi would prefer to sell hundreds of thousands of Etrons per year, instead of the current trickle of tens of thousands. Competing against Tesla is not easy.

• "Our relationship with Tesla goes back a long way," Manley said. "It really has helped us. But FCA are absolutely committed to reducing CO2 emissions around the world."

It's good IMO that the FCA CEO sees Tesla as a positive factor. Obviously they'd want to eliminate all CO2 emissions penalties - but that's easier said than done.

Does anyone have a link to the full FCA earnings call transcript?

 

[hobbes]

First batch of 15 Model 3 from Giga3 Shanghai:

15 Made-in-China Tesla Model 3s seen in the latest Gigafactory 3 drone footage

 

[Cherry Wine]

I'm constantly amazed by the stupidity of people. The benefit of moving pollution away from ground level and cities out to power plants is also a great point to combat the "huuurr ur car is run bY cOaL" crowd.

People are ****ing stupid, or at least willfully ignorant to the point that I can't tell the difference. Case in point: terrified of flying ("I could die!"), but refuse to maintain good oral hygiene ("Eh, no big deal."). The former is extremely unlikely to kill you; the second will absolutely shorten your lifespan / degrade your quality of life.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

yes a Corrolla and Civic are rather bland, but the broader point is affordability. Folks should not be spending their annual income on a car; really bad financial planning. So even if they truly believed, that the oceans will flood the east coast in 10 years, they still cannot afford a BEV.

If battery prices continue to drop, and Elon could produce a basic car with 200+ miles for say, $25k, it'd sell like hot cakes.

...but if he can't sell it at a profit it would ruin the company. This is the same problem the legacy manufacturers are facing with trying to get a $70K vehicle to market. They can't make it fiscally productive so it is a liability rather than an asset.

Dan

 

[30seconds]

Key quotes:

• "Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas asked Manley for insight on just how much FCA is paying Tesla to pool vehicle fleets for regulatory compliance reasons in Europe, to avoid fines. The figure has been reported at levels ranging from millions to billions, but Manley declined to provide Jonas with any additional information."

IMO FCA would probably only decline to give a figure if it's high ...

It's also interesting that Adam Jonas spent his precious FCA earnings call analyst question to the CEO to inquire about ... Tesla.

• "The customer will be agnostic" to certain components, Manley said, noting that batteries and drivetrain would be among them. He added that a company could buy a "skateboard" platform from Tesla, then tune other systems, such as suspension and handling, to suit various brands (FCA already has marques as diverse as Jeep, RAM, Maserati, and Alfa Romeo in its portfolio).

Btw., "skateboard design from Tesla" would include the drive train - that's why he listed the differentiation components as "suspension" and "handling".

• "Manley also said that FCA's pooling deal with Tesla would conclude in 2021, with 2022 being the first year that the company achieves the full benefit of its own efforts."

Translation: FCA admits that they'll need Tesla's credits for at least the next 2 years. Whether they'll be able to ramp up BEV products by 2022 is an open question.

• "Our relationship with Tesla goes back a long way," Manley said. "It really has helped us. But FCA are absolutely committed to reducing CO2 emissions around the world."

It's good IMO that the FCA CEO sees Tesla as a positive factor. Obviously they'd want to eliminate all CO2 emissions penalties - but that's easier said than done.

Does anyone have a link to the full FCA earnings call transcript?

Why would Tesla do this while they are supply constrained with batteries?

 

[printf42]

From a Tesla owner with a small TSLA holding, on the subject of “EV fanatic has trouble finding suitable EV”, and “service/repair FUD”:

I have anecdotal evidence that service/repair FUD has a real effect. And without service/repair FUD, the lack of a Tesla “affordable” SUV/CUV is a real barrier to first-time EV buyers that will be removed with the introduction of the Y.

Exhibit A:

I neighbor has a Prius, has been wanting a BEV for years, even has is garage already wired for 240v for the purpose. He has been talking me about it for about a year, starting off with what I would call “Anything but Tesla”, mostly because he had swallowed 100% of the FUD on Elon/Tesla/TSLA/Everything.

TL;DR: he ordered a Y yesterday. Beyond FUD, barriers were lack of Tesla CUV/SUV to take home today, and worries about service/repair.

The long story:

• He started with the i-Pace because his next-door neighbor (not me) bought one and he liked the looks. Well, what ensued was range hell and service hell, that idea went away. He really wants and likes the traditional looks of a small SUV, loves the cargo capacity of his Prius, so he looked at every existing BEV plus all those planned or in limited production.

• He would come to me with news about car after car telling me how great it is, and I would ask “do you want to take it on road trips or just day trips?”. Answer was always “I want to do a lot of long road trips including to out-of-the-way places”. I patiently explained each time that, if you want to do that now, look at range and charging infrastructure, Tesla is your only answer. On-the-road charging for non-Tesla might get a lot better in a few years, or might not, but it ain’t gonna be for a while. Otherwise, there are lots of reasonable choices if you just want a fun BEV to drive around and charge at home

• It took a very long time, including getting him to use “abetterrouteplanner dot com” to run his hypothetical trips to all his favorite places in multiple different BEVs. BUT he finally got there, saying “ok you are right, Tesla is my only choice unless I want to wait, and I am too old to wait, I want something now”.

• OK, after driving my S he decided Teslas are great but he wants something more affordable than the S, so he drove a 3 and liked it. EXCEPT OMG it is too low, hard for old guys like me to get in and out, and cargo is good for a sedan but still no hatchback. He really really wanted to talk himself into buying the 3 because he can get it now, but he just couldn’t do it, even after getting a really close look at my wife’s 3 that she bought a month ago. So if it is a Tesla, it has to be a Y.

So then he gets to “I have to either wait a few years for non-Tesla charging networks to get better, or order a Tesla Model Y. Which do I do and why?”

He kept bringing me daily “whatabout” objections to Tesla that would argue for waiting for a competitor. Mostly just more FUD that was easy to dispel by patiently sending him a few facts. The biggest one? Concerns over service/repair.

Q: The closest service center is a 2-hour drive away? How can that work?
A: Pretty well when you have a car that needs almost no service. I gave him the link to service recommendations.

Q: But what about minor problems with the car shortly after delivery?
A1: If you have them, make a list, make an appointment and take the car in. Chances are they can get all that stuff fixed in a few hours, and they will provide transportation for you if it is more than an hour or so of work. There are some great food/shopping options near that dealer.
A2: Tesla has mobile service (“Really?”, he says) that is getting more capable all the time. They will suggest mobile service if they thing that will work, and a guy will come directly to your house at the appointed time. (“Holy crap, really?” he says). Where we live it is currently scheduled for one day a month, but I expect that to improve as more cars are sold here, I see more and more of them here all the time.

Q: But what about repair from fender benders. I read on blabla social media site, stories about folks waiting for months and months to repair a fender.
A1: Some of what you read is invented, and some of it is old news. Tesla has a network of approved but independent body shops, there have been complaints about wait times, plus some folks have gone to body shops not approved by Tesla and have experience really awful wait times. NEWS FLASH: Tesla service centers and even Tesla mobile service folks have started doing their own body work for small jobs, taking some of the pressure off the body shop network, and parts delivery timeliness has improved. See for example: Tesla starts doing some of its own bodywork at service centers and mobile service - Electrek
A2: If you are going to order a Tesla Model Y, by the time you take delivery sometime next year, it seems very likely that the service part of the business will continue to improve between now and then. You should watch this closely by following some actual statistics, beware of anecdotes. You might start with the latest Bloomberg survey of Model 3 satistaction, notice the improvement in defects reported YoY. That should translate to Model Y because some 80% of the parts are believed to be in common, with a lot of the manufacturing technology shared.

Helpful at all??

I second the service part, we had a fender bender that needed rear bumper fix a few months ago.
We contacted Tesla body shop on May 2nd, and the earliest appointment we got was July 25th, almost 3 months out.

We didn’t make it to the appointment for some reason and I was procrastinating on getting a new appointment.

This Monday my wife went to the body shop for something else, and got a new appointment to replace the rear bumper on this Friday, and was told it is expected to finish in the same day.

Then on Tuesday we were contacted by mobile service rep saying if we prefer, they could come to our place to replace the bumper in about the same time frame, (next Monday was his estimates, before we said we would prefer to get it done on Friday with the existing appointment).

tl;dr:
Tesla services especially body repairs are improving quickly, at least now they really can replace bumper at your house with in a week, as promised by Elon.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Wrong. #1 is Toyota Camry. Starts at $24K.

Nobody is paying sticker and one can get $5-$6K off all day, any day on Camry,Altima, Malibu, Sonata, etc. $$3-4K off Accords.

Roughly, the cheapest used Model 3 is around $37K

https://www.cars.com/for-sale/searc...&searchSource=SORT&sort=price-lowest&zc=76543