Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CorneliusXX]

"From 2012 – 2018, there has been approximately one Tesla vehicle fire for every 170 million miles traveled. By comparison, data from the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) and U.S. Department of Transportation shows that in the United States there is a vehicle fire for every 19 million miles traveled."

Tesla Vehicle Safety Report

That's a pretty strong refutation of the fire argument. Even taking into account the younger fleet age it's unlikely that Tesla fires could be more frequent than the average.

 

[CorneliusXX]

If you think oil is dead in ten years then you are the sucker.

Agreed, there are Baseline applications with no readily available substitute for oil. Plastics, asphalt and fertiliser are some of the most common. Flight will likely take far more than a decade to convert to electric. Even if we had dense enough batteries and fully developed planes today, the replacement cycle is quite long.

Although I do concede that the majority of oil use is for petrol and diesel, so the market can shrink substantially.

 

[Tslynk67]

Hay gang! Have been off radar, road tripping to Denmark the last week, which is always a pleasure in a Tesla.

What was really interesting is that it was the first time I see the increased SuperCharging rates on my car - which is right on the limit for receiving them (October 2016 build, AP2 (just), 100kW pack). But yeah, it's impressive and shaves 5 minutes off each stop.

Said it before and say it again, which other car company improves your car with age? None except Tesla. Love it!

Note that the previous max kWh I'd seen was sub 120.

Seems the screenshot didn't get posted, here it is...

 

[Antares Nebula]

Tesla’s competitors find that going electric has its own set of problems

 

[Antares Nebula]

Apple, Amazon, Tesla top list of millennial stock holdings in new survey

"Apex Clearing’s latest Millennial 100 stock pulse report found that Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Tesla (TSLA), and Facebook (FB) were the stocks most held by millennial investors. Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB) rounded out the Top 5.

"Millennials, typically defined as the generation born between 1981 to 1996, are continuing to shift trends by “investing what they believe in,” Apex CEO Bill Capuzzi told YFI AM on Thursday. “They're investing what they know.”

 

[Carl Raymond]

“They're investing what they know.”

Divesting from what they know will kill them is equally valid.

 

[Fact Checking]

Agreed, there are Baseline applications with no readily available substitute for oil. Plastics, asphalt and fertiliser are some of the most common. Flight will likely take far more than a decade to convert to electric. Even if we had dense enough batteries and fully developed planes today, the replacement cycle is quite long.

Although I do concede that the majority of oil use is for petrol and diesel, so the market can shrink substantially.

Only about 2% of crude oil consumption is for "petrochemical feed-stock", which includes, among other things, plastics production:

(There's also a significant percentage of crude consumed in the refinery process [the heating required for the distillation] - about 5% loss there IIRC.)

I.e. over 90% of crude oil consumption is for various forms of transportation and heating purposes, which will be easily replaced with renewables - and of the remaining 10%, half of it (5% of the total) is dirty stuff but doesn't get combusted and doesn't go into the atmosphere.

I.e. only about ~5% of crude oil consumption is a CO2 emissions source that is harder to replace with renewables.

Obviously reducing world oil consumption by a factor of ~10, which would collapse oil prices to somewhere around $20 per barrel and would render 90% of the crude oil extraction sites uneconomical, and would cut the total value of crude oil reserves, crude extraction and distribution infrastructure from over 100 trillion dollars to well below 1 trillion dollars is not where the oil industry wants to go ...

At the top of the list of large oil companies who don't want to go there is the one named "Russia".

 

[Nakata]

Expected delivery for SR+ in the Netherlands is februari 2020.
Long range and Performance still december 2019.
Q4 for the Netherlands will be off the charts.

I guess the rest of europe will be a little starved of model 3 in Q4.

The GRAND PIONEER just arrived in Amsterdam.
Vessel details for: GRAND PIONEER (Ro-Ro Cargo) - IMO 9247572, MMSI 352935000, Call Sign HOBN Registered in Panama | AIS Marine Traffic

 

[ReflexFunds]

Interesting blog from Casey Handmer on everything Starlink. A long read, but informative.
Starlink is a very big deal


MODERATOR EDIT:
A quick discussion amongst the Mods - unanimous agreement of the quality and scope of that blog post means that @prunesquallor’s post gets planted in the “Merit” thread.
So a big “thanks” for finding it and showing it...even if ever so tenuously related to TSLA etc.

Thanks for this, I haven't had a chance to check all the assumptions, but they look reasonable at first glance.
To be clear - Casey is estimating each satellite could generate $5m revenue per year with around $100k long term combined production and launch cost - so $150bn annual revenue for 30k satellites, and this will be mostly profit (compared to Aramco's $111bn 2018 net profit).
This aligns with Elon talking about taking 3-5% share of the $1trn worldwide telecommunications (this was when they had c.10k satellites, now they increased to 30k it looks like they are planning for 9-15% or $90-150bn revenue).

I'm sure Elon is laughing to himself. For twenty years the majority of silicon valley has been fighting over the $500bn revenue global advertising market. In the mean time he has laid plans to become the dominant leader in four different $trn industries - 1) Robotaxis, 2) Autos, 3) Distributed Global Renewable Energy Grid and 4) Telecommunications. And all of Elon's industries will actually do good for the world - transitioning to clean energy, reducing poverty and increasing access to transport and education.

Slightly OT, but lots of details provided on Starlink yesterday.

Elon's brand, success and wealth often impact the Tesla stock price, and I think progress with Starlink can help to turn the anti-elon narrative.
Successful deployment and testing of Starlink's first 60 satellites over the next few days should significantly increase Starlink's probability of building a viable business.

Key updates:

• Recent Spacex funding rounds have been oversubscribed (disproving TSLAQ's SpaceXQ FUD). Elon thinks Spacex now has enough capital to get Starlink operational.
• Targeting 3-5% of the $1trn worldwide telecommunications revenue. So $30-50bn revenue.
• 60 satellites in first launch. 12 launches will cover the US. 24 will provide decent global coverage. Can begin selling services with c.400 satellites. Need c.1000 to be economically viable. Will continue to add satellites to meet demand.
• Falcons can potentially launch 1-2k per year.
• Targeting sub-20ms latency
• Each launch has "about a terabit of useful connectivity".
• Each Starlink costs more to launch than it does to make, even with the reused Falcon 9.

Assuming a launch cost of $20m for a reused Falcon, these updates suggest a c.$333k launch cost per satellite and below $333k production cost. I don't see how Oneweb competes with this when it looks like they are paying $50m per launch of c.30 satellites (so $1.7m per satellite, which are also much smaller), with an initial production cost of $1m (targeting $0.5m) and what looks like only 60% of Starlink's bandwidth per satellite (implied by numbers here Musk says Starlink “economically viable” with around 1,000 satellites - SpaceNews.com). So it looks like SpaceX capex cost per Gigabit/second is at least 6x lower, perhaps 10x.
If this satellite deployment goes well, I expect Elon will be thinking the global satellite broadband race is also "Game, set and match".

 

[jbcarioca]

Are you suggesting tracking shingles??

Yes. To begin with they already have some directional aspects, to the extent that the street-level visual effect displays curation and texture different than the direct sun-facing elements. It seems likely that they’re working on tracking ability also, perhaps at the ‘shingle’ level.

i don’t pretend to actually know. However, I do believe that they have just now, with V3 begun to ‘crack the code’ so I do expect greater commercial viability to appear quite rapidly now.

 

[KarenRei]

If you think oil is dead in ten years then you are the sucker.

As anyone here should know, the value of a company is not that of its present profits; it's of the net present value of its future profits. It doesn't matter if Aramco's sales are still strong a decade from now; if the outlook a decade from now is much weaker, Aramco will be worth far less.

No YOU

Okay, now this is reminding me of my favourite TV show, the Næturvaktin series ("Night Shift", the Icelandic equivalent of The Office). It starred a former mayor of Reykjavík (Jón Gnarr) as a Marxist gas station manager with delusions of grandeur. Whenever he faced legitimate criticism that he didn't know how to respond to, he'd give an angry, flustered ,"Nei, ÞÚ!" (No, YOU!), even if the criticism didn't make any sense in reverse.

When they made a movie out of the series, it outsold Avatar in the theatres here.

 

[HG Wells]

Hay gang! Have been off radar, road tripping to Denmark the last week, which is always a pleasure in a Tesla.

What was really interesting is that it was the first time I see the increased SuperCharging rates on my car - which is right on the limit for receiving them (October 2016 build, AP2 (just), 100kW pack). But yeah, it's impressive and shaves 5 minutes off each stop.

Said it before and say it again, which other car company improves your car with age? None except Tesla. Love it!

Note that the previous max kWh I'd seen was sub 120.

SR+ finally getting the charging speed updated ( Version 36.1.X)
On V3 Superchargers 170 KW !
On V3 Superchargers 140-145 !

SEE
170 kw max supercharging -- Now on SR+ with 2019.36.1 : TeslaLounge

Chart from thread
Standard Range Plus Supercharging Speed

OH happy days !!!!

 

[jerry33]

Are you suggesting tracking shingles??

I think the WHO already tracks shingles.

 

[uselesslogin]

If you think oil is dead in ten years then you are the sucker.

Bloomberg’s Tom Randall explains it all. I think other carmakers are moving too slow for us to hit 2023 but within 10 years there will be a price crash and there will be no recovery.
Here’s How Electric Cars Will Cause the Next Oil Crisis

 

[AlexS]

Tamberrino left Goldman Sachs two months ago. They haven't named a new auto analyst yet so there is no coverage on Tesla from GS.

Oh wow I didn't know that, This is amazing news. You should send this info out to some investment news agency, as many people are waiting Tamberrino hit against Tesla before buying.

 

[Off Shore]

Bloomberg’s Tom Randall explains it all. I think other carmakers are moving too slow for us to hit 2023 but within 10 years there will be a price crash and there will be no recovery.
Here’s How Electric Cars Will Cause the Next Oil Crisis

TL;DR: One thing is certain: Whenever the oil crash comes, it will be only the beginning. Every year that follows will bring more electric cars to the road, and less demand for oil. Someone will be left holding the barrel.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Only about 2% of crude oil consumption is for "petrochemical feed-stock", which includes, among other things, plastics production:

View attachment 473028​

(There's also a significant percentage of crude consumed in the refinery process [the heating required for the distillation] - about 5% loss there IIRC.)

I.e. over 90% of crude oil consumption is for various forms of transportation and heating purposes, which will be easily replaced with renewables - and of the remaining 10%, half of it (5% of the total) is dirty stuff but doesn't get combusted and doesn't go into the atmosphere.

I.e. only about ~5% of crude oil consumption is a CO2 emissions source that is harder to replace with renewables.

Obviously reducing world oil consumption by a factor of ~10, which would collapse oil prices to somewhere around $20 per barrel and would render 90% of the crude oil extraction sites uneconomical, and would cut the total value of crude oil reserves, crude extraction and distribution infrastructure from over 100 trillion dollars to well below 1 trillion dollars is not where the oil industry wants to go ...

At the top of the list of large oil companies who don't want to go there is the one named "Russia".

Agree with the long term conclusion. I was looking at the 10y time horizon where I think some industries will not have viable electric solutions in scaled production. Aircraft being the most likely, probably shipping too - mainly driven by the lack of energy density of current batteries but also the long lead time to design and scale manufacturing once energy density is solved. Long asset replacement cycles for some of these products will also be a drag on fleet conversion speed.

 

[elasalle]

Tailwinds ... Election Yr ... #1 has stopped talking China Tariffs. .... Market MeltUp coming ....

 

[Don TLR]

... by 2038.

You cant expect them to close overnight and yes its a long way off but to have a projected date is a start

 

[Fact Checking]

Tailwinds ... Election Yr ... #1 has stopped talking China Tariffs. .... Market MeltUp coming ....

Also, European car tariffs are off the table:

"U.S. May Not Need to Put Tariffs on European Cars, Ross Says" (Bloomberg)​