Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JusRelax]

Sam Korus of ARK Invest just posted this graph comparing estimates of EV growth to actual EV growth. Things are looking great, guys:

Sam Korus on Twitter

 

[jerry33]

Not sure what your job is but imagine someone told your entire office they were moving 3000 miles away. It would not go well.

That happened where I worked. It's a cheap way to lay off people without actually having to say they were laid off. Large corporations love it.

 

[Tslynk67]

This is actually good news:

Reminder: Beginning In October, InsideEVs' Sales Chart Is Quarterly​

Because InsideEVs is reporting US sales, the first month of the quarter was usually "bad" for Tesla, due to them dedicating much of Fremont output to international markets.

Since there will be no October and November data, there's one less source of FUD.

Excellent! In fact they can surely stop guessing now and just wait for the delivery report like everyone else, no?

 

[Artful Dodger]

I, for example, have not read a single peer reviewed article on the subject of climate change, or even directly heard from any of the scientists researching it

OT:

Spoiler: Hear, here:

CLASSIC: Prof. Richard Alley explains climate science to a Congressman in 30 seconds.

 

[StealthP3D]

Price action is hard to explain. Tesla ‘battery fire hazard’ all over the news, JPM reaffirming its sell rating. Yet, here we are almost 2% up. Maybe I should simply give up looking for logic in the stock market.

Yes, please do give up looking for logic in the stock market (in the short term moves). In the long-term, the market makes complete sense. It's just that there is plenty of grey area with a speculative stock like Tesla.

 

[kbM3]

Robo-taxis enable much more frequent car-pooling. All it takes is a cheaper ride ticket (i.e. paying for a seat-km not just km).

Doubt it. People don’t carpool now when they’d be saving even more money. What percentage of Uber rides are Uber pools? Whatever it is, it will go down when the savings are less.

A possible exception might be a robo-taxi with separate compartments, so you can listen to your own music, have privacy...

 

[Tslynk67]

The logic is to stop people who are buying PHEVs to game the system... e.g. because you get 24% off their sticker price vs. an equivalent ICE car (just from the VAT discount alone... more for the pollution fees), so even if you never plan to plug it in, some people were buying them to drive them around on gasoline.

This was happening in the UK so they removed the tax incentives for them a couple of years back.

 

[jerry33]

That's funny. Are people really that spoiled? Because the job I had for most of my working years required me to get on a 58' boat and navigate my "home" for the next 3 months through sometimes treacherous seas for thousands of miles, away from my family. Not once but each and every year. If I wanted to make a living.

Nobody is owed a job and you will have to excuse me if I don't find moving across the country, when the company you work for fails, to be too adventurous or disruptive! Particularly when the union bosses you elected to represent you, actively lobby the company to NOT do the very thing that could have saved your job!

That's one way of looking at it. Another is that you've worked for 20-25 years at a company, your house is paid for, your kids are in the local university, and now you're asked to move to a place where you'll have to take a minimum of a $100K mortgage (probably more) with no guarantee you'll be working there for more than a year. There's no money to be saved by the company because you'll be in an office cubical rather than working from home, and the type of work is such that you're remote from the equipment you're working on.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Sam Korus of ARK Invest just posted this graph comparing estimates of EV growth to actual EV growth. Things are looking great, guys:

Sam Korus on Twitter

View attachment 473126

I’ve looked at the EIA projections on future grid energy mix. They seem to be very "conservative".

 

[canoemore]

OT:

Spoiler: Hear, here:

CLASSIC: Prof. Richard Alley explains climate science to a Congressman in 30 seconds.

Holy cow. I would need a near-fatal dose of sedatives to match the patience Dr. Alley shows in that hearing. Good lord.

Edit: He seems like a great teacher

 

[Tslynk67]

That's funny. Are people really that spoiled? Because the job I had for most of my working years required me to get on a 58' boat and navigate my "home" for the next 3 months through sometimes treacherous seas for thousands of miles, away from my family. Not once but each and every year. If I wanted to make a living.

Nobody is owed a job and you will have to excuse me if I don't find moving across the country, when the company you work for fails, to be too adventurous or disruptive! Particularly when the union bosses you elected to represent you, actively lobby the company to NOT do the very thing that could have saved your job!

I even had to come to Belgium! The sacrifices we make...

 

[jerry33]

Price action is hard to explain. Tesla ‘battery fire hazard’ all over the news, JPM reaffirming its sell rating. Yet, here we are almost 2% up. Maybe I should simply give up looking for logic in the stock market.

Not complaining though

Fires and Tesla is old news. Most people who've followed Tesla have already been through this before and realizing it's just headlines for headlines' sake. Sure there are people who haven't followed Tesla or who don't know anyone with a Tesla and swallow the FUD, but presumably if you invest in Tesla you know enough to spot garbage when you see it.

 

[adiggs]

Don't forget platooning! That's more efficient than rail.

That should be easier to put into practice than self driving I'd think, and being first with a rear driverless platooning truck will be extremely noteworthy, even if geo-limited to repeatedly traveled commercial routes.

Do you have a source for the claim that semi's in platoon are more efficient than rail? Is that a cost/mile metric, an energy / mile metric, or something else? I went looking for a site that provided comparable metrics between the two and couldn't find anything. What I could find is that the train industry is moving a ton of cargo 430-450 miles per gallon of diesel pretty consistently (that's an average calculated from total industry miles and total industry cargo (in tons) moved) and includes all of the switching and shuffling trains and cars that doesn't directly contribute to ton-miles.

If a commercial truck is moving 30 tons (60,000 pounds) at 6 mpg, that sounds like each ton is being moved 5 miles per gallon of diesel (30 tons / 6 mpg = 5 tons / gallon-mile). I readily admit I couldn't find a source for this and I could be doing the math quite badly - if I'm approximately right, then trucks are about 2 orders of magnitude short of trains on energy efficiency. Truck platooning will be a big help but it's not going to increase the second truck's fuel efficiency to 1200 mpg from 6 mpg (so overall pair of truck efficiency is ~600 mpg).

I ask because I'm dubious - the rolling resistance of steel on steel is awfully hard to beat, and train cars tucked in so closely between each other makes for some seriously good wind resistance with each incremental car.


On a cost/mile metric, in the US, I wouldn't be surprised to find that a platoon of semis can compete with trains. In the US though, society subsidizes truck expenses (road maintenance) pretty heavily, while companies that operate trains have to fully fund their track maintenance themselves.


Some obvious limitations of train - trains do a poor job of stopping at every address to make deliveries (they don't ). And apparently trains can still burn relatively high sulfur fuel, while semis have made the switch to low sulfur fuel (leading to lower pollution from trucks than trains). The difference in fuels is changing or has changed.

 

[jerry33]

Doubt it. People don’t carpool now when they’d be saving even more money. What percentage of Uber rides are Uber pools? Whatever it is, it will go down when the savings are less.

A possible exception might be a robo-taxi with separate compartments, so you can listen to your own music, have privacy...

A lot of things have to come together for carpooling of any kind to work. First you and the other carpoolers have to live near each other and work near each other. You also have to have a reasonable chance of getting along. Then the hours have to be in sync and never ever vary. Also the driver of the day has to be reliable. This is a lot to ask.

 

[jerry33]

Do you have a source for the claim that semi's in platoon are more efficient than rail? Is that a cost/mile metric, an energy / mile metric, or something else? I went looking for a site that provided comparable metrics between the two and couldn't find anything. What I could find is that the train industry is moving a ton of cargo 430-450 miles per gallon of diesel pretty consistently (that's an average calculated from total industry miles and total industry cargo (in tons) moved) and includes all of the switching and shuffling trains and cars that doesn't directly contribute to ton-miles.

Shipping by train means you also have to add the cost of trucks for final delivery and the additional damage when moving the cargo between the train and the truck. (I don't have the figures, just something to keep in mind that it isn't only the train part of the journey that costs). Of course, if trucks were actually charged for the amount of road damage they do, there would be no contest about which is cheaper.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Do you have a source for the claim that semi's in platoon are more efficient than rail?

Yes, Elon said it on stage during the Semi reveal event.

 

[KarenRei]

Yes, please do give up looking for logic in the stock market (in the short term moves). In the long-term, the market makes complete sense. It's just that there is plenty of grey area with a speculative stock like Tesla.

My hypothesis, which could be wrong, is that it's due to the improving odds that there won't be an auto trade war with Europe. That's been the one thing that's been scaring me for quite a while.

 

[KSilver2000]

A lot of things have to come together for carpooling of any kind to work. First you and the other carpoolers have to live near each other and work near each other. You also have to have a reasonable chance of getting along. Then the hours have to be in sync and never ever vary. Also the driver of the day has to be reliable. This is a lot to ask.

This.

There’s many people at work who won’t even take the free work shuttle buses because their work schedule is unpredictable or work/personal schedule doesn’t align with the bus schedule by 30+ minutes.

 

[Dwdnjck]

Prediction for today- up 7.13

 

[JustMe]

Do you have a source for the claim that semi's in platoon are more efficient than rail? Is that a cost/mile metric, an energy / mile metric, or something else? I went looking for a site that provided comparable metrics between the two and couldn't find anything.

Elon Musk asserted that Tesla semis in platoons would move goods cheaper than rail:

Elon Musk boasts: Tesla Semi specs may be better than initially advertised