Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

Also, I wonder how much a good app could reduce traffic by incentivising ride sharing.

Probably little or none because no app can get rid of the other issues (live near each other, work near each other, people compatibility).

 

[jerry33]

What I'm worried about - throw in hefty subsidization (roads) compared to trains, and we might even succeed in putting our big train networks out of business (oops).

You wouldn't want to see the truck traffic if all the grain was shipped via truck rather than rail (I'd also say coal, but perhaps we'll get rid of that someday). Every Interstate would have to be six lanes minimum.

 

[ABCTG]

Just listened to
Ride The Lightning Tesla Motors Unofficial podcast
Q3 Earnings Call Highlights and Analysis

it's worth a listen to recap the Q3 earnings call.

The thing that stood out the most to me was Elon saying almost all of Tesla resources were diverted/taken from everywhere in the company for 18 months to 2 years, to get the Model 3 through production hell, and simplifying the design of the Model 3. (around 33min)

Now all of those resources and engineering talent is back on track.

 

[1101011]

I couldn't find an exact comparison but did some back of the napkin math a while back. I wound up estimating that Rail Freight is 5.1 cents per ton/mile, current trucking is 15.6 cents per ton mile, and an FSD EV truck might be in the 8.6 cents per ton mile.

So still not there (I did not factor platooning, just FSD electric) price wise but a 24-48 hour transit time vs 2 weeks.

And the cost for a direct rail line from Reno to Fremont? (Asking for a friend).

 

[adiggs]

Elon Musk asserted that Tesla semis in platoons would move goods cheaper than rail:

Elon Musk boasts: Tesla Semi specs may be better than initially advertised

Thanks for that link. I'm hoping that Elon turns that boast into details and substance at some point. The key element I got out of that link is that he's talking in terms of economic cost / mile rather than energy efficiency to move a ton-mile. It's an important difference.

What I didn't get are details - the methodology he's using, the assumptions he's making - that sort of thing.

And while I hope he's right for many reasons, if he is right, then we've also got a pretty important unpriced externality that we either have to price into our trucking, or we really will put rail freight out of business. I don't believe our interstate system is equipped to handle that level of freight (and really - it shouldn't be). We just need to price road maintenance fully into commercial trucking, and that'll shift the cost advantage back to train for the really big bulk and long distance travel.


I went hunting for study(s) about the costs for road maintenance. I found one (pretty sure I've linked it previously in this forum) from Kansas where the formula for road damage (and thus maintenance) was a function of time (roads weather and age, even if they aren't being used) plus class 8 semi use (in that case - agricultural loads). All of the road usage by us private / non-commercial loads were rounded off to being either an error term or rolled in with weather.

The primary aging of the road comes from commercial truck usage. That's not where the road improvement and maintenance money comes from though.

 

[hobbes]

Apparently some increases to the German EV incentive planned. Not very clear on the details though, has anyone read more?

"According to the document, due to be discussed at a meeting of high-level government and car-company officials on Monday evening, grants for plug-in hybrids will rise from 3,000 to 4,500 euros. For vehicles priced over 40,000 euros the grants will rise to 5,000 euros."
Germany to hike electric car subsidies as VW launches car

This is just hitting the press in Germany, too. Your numbers are right, in addition for cars under 40,000 EUR, subsidy will rise from 4,000 to 6,000 EUR. Cars over 40,000 EUR used to get 4,000 EUR also, so they will have less additional subsidy. The current upper limit for cars that can get the grant is 60.000 EUR. I don´t know if this will change, I would guess not.

Below 40,000 EUR
- Plugin: 3,000 (now) -> 4,500 EUR (starting 2020)
- BEV: 4,000 -> 6,000 EUR

Above 40,000 EUR
- Plugin: 3000 -> 4,000 EUR
- BEV: 4,000 -> 5000 EUR

When the 60,000 EUR limit was introduced, Tesla was quick to offer a bare-bones Model S at just below that price. Right now the cheapest Model 3 per the configurator is 44,390. I bet that will drop next year.

For the rest of this year, I´m afraid this will at least soften demand.

In addition to increased grants, the government will spend 3.5 billion EUR for charging stations (however, no time frame specified so far).
EDIT: The 3.5 billion is limited until 2025.

 

[Electroman]

Having read coverage of Tesla for so many years, I think the far greater conspiracy theory would be to assert that the laws of probability have conspired to have CNBC, The NYT, WSJ, AP, Reuters, NPR, the LA Times, etc., etc. all together error thousands of times towards unflattering misunderstanding of facts and events in regards to Tesla for every time they error towards a flattering misunderstanding of the same. Thousands to one.

Negativity bias in the media (negative just sells better)?

How is it that virtually any suggestion of a new drivetrain technology from virtually any automaker not named Tesla, from startups to global incumbents, is highlighted as a glowing possibility for the future, while for Tesla such statements about where their tech is going is doubted, scoffed at, or referred to as "shiny object dangling" diversion from the laundry list of ongoing Tesla disasters then recited in such articles.

I find it nearly impossible that there isn't rampant intellectual dishonesty in the programming pumped out about Tesla.



PS our mainstream press is a for profit business. They have taken no oaths towards some kind of journalistic code of ethics, they have no oversight, and they drift further and further towards pay-to-play programming for hire. They are selling programming, just like McDonalds is selling fast food... what makes them money, that's what they sell. At this point, I think there's barely much more interest in informing the public about our world at these programming outlets, than there is interest in McDonalds about educating the public about health and nutrition. Of course, I'm sure both air emotionally evocative promos that this is exactly what they are about.

Sharyl Attkisson left a 20 year career at CBS Network News, having won Emmys, and an Edward R Murrow Award for investigative reporting over this very issue... pay-to-play taking over what airs, and what does not. Don't hold your breath for any mainstream media outlets to report on this phenomena.

Hit the nail onthe head.

Every article you read out there is an infomercial. Sometimes it is in favor of one company, but often it is collectively for the legacy auto companies.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Ive been very reluctant to sell any shares up to this point and after the post Q3 run up Im glad I didn‘t. But it still bothers me every time I see the stock randomly drop from manipulation. My new strategy is to hold my core position, swing trade about 10 shares, and stay out of options completely. This way I feel like I can stick it to the manipulators, but I wont miss the big run up to $1000+. Thanks for all the not advice.

 

[madodel]

All the FSD and rail posts are important I'm sure but why is TSLA up $8+ today? I see lots of negative FUD.

 

[mongo]

All the FSD and rail posts are important I'm sure but why is TSLA up $8+ today?

I can answer that one. I didn't buy the dip.

 

[FreqFlyer]

All the FSD and rail posts are important I'm sure but why is TSLA up $8+ today? I see lots of negative FUD.

Could just be simple supply and demand, smaller investors want in on this "train". I think many here give too much credance to FUD. The smart investor knows about the China factory coming online, Y production next summer, the Pickup debut this month, has a model 3 on order, but cannot take delivery till January,etc. a lot of positive stories, that cannot be buried by yet another dubious,"Tesla catches on fire" story, been there done that.

Go to the FUD well too many times, and people just get used to it then ignore it unless it is substantiated.

 

[SpaceCash]

SP is up today because it's a fundamentally solid company and idiot shorts are slowly but surely covering after the gobsmack Q3 report. They've been colluding with MM's just enough to mask the panicked covering, but that's what we're seeing here; panicked covering filtered through accomplices making it look orderly or innocuous.

Ride "sharing" has been a stop gap. Humans ultimately are individuals, and our individuality is a feature, not a bug. We only tolerate riding on public transport out of economic necessity. We do not need nor are we benefitted (on an individual level) by carpooling in most cases. Give all humans the agency to do what THEY need to do for THEIR lives, and economies will benefit. If everybody had their own jetpack, or teleportation device, that would be superior to an optimized "rideshare" system every single time.

 

[Navin]

Adam Jonas is likely buttoning up his latest research report. Tesla - strategically bullish, fundamentally curious.

 

[Nocturnal]

Ok TSLA. I need you to keep climbing. I'd like my 11/8 call at $395 to provide a return. (ok, I won't be bad if you just make it to $390)

 

[Fact Checking]

Another piece of good news today:

Tesla Model S Plaid Laps Nurburgring In 7:13 (New unofficial hand-stopped time!) : teslamotors​

 

[Nocturnal]

Adam Jonas is likely buttoning up his latest research report. Tesla - strategically bullish, fundamentally curious.

Are you saying that Jonas is Buy-curious?

 

[Intl Professor]

a speculative stock like Tesla.

I don't consider TSLA a speculation, but then I've been long since 2010 and would still buy at today's prices if I had the scratch. I have the itchings, though.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Price action is hard to explain. Tesla ‘battery fire hazard’ all over the news, JPM reaffirming its sell rating. Yet, here we are almost 2% up. Maybe I should simply give up looking for logic in the stock market.

Not complaining though

I could have saved a lot of time if you said this on page 1.

 

[Mike Smith]

With 5.5B in cash and Model Y and GF3 both ahead of schedule, and projected sustained profitability Tesla is clearly in the best position it's ever been in. Logically then it soon be making new highs.

 

[AlexS]

Can we please close above 320 today