Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[BioSehnsucht]

OT
Wikipedia doesn't agree with their definition of city. Interesting though.
Opportunities for Boring Co. as well as Tesla. Sooner Tesla buys Boring Co the better.
We're going to need a bigger Asian GF...

Better that Boring stays separate or as a SpaceX subsidiary. The fewer Musk enterprises that are publicly traded, the better (even if it means we don't get to participate, better for those enterprises, therefor better for the world and by extension us in the long term).

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Meh, Tesla made it clear enough I have no objection to discussions on the concept of 18650s being switched out for 2170s or another format at some point in the future. But the constant "They're going to switch them out imminently!" in this thread was getting annoying. I'm very thankful to Tesla for finally putting that to rest.

BTW, did everyone here watch the Jack Rickard build and note his determination of the difference in energy density between the 18650 and 2170 cells? Of course, a pack's density isn't just its cells' density, but it's a good point to rub in. (They were almost identical, the 2170s were only slightly more energy dense... and of course the 18650s have a lot more surface area).

The 18650s have more surface area per volume which aids cooling, but the 2170s have more cathode/anode surface area per ... (it was mentioned upthread, but I forget the correct term, per Wh? per Ah? point being better for charge/discharge ability). So the density is similar but the resistance should be improved for the 2170s which may translate to better C rates despite the thermal challenges of a thicker cylinder.

The less efficient cooling due to larger size of the 2170s may be balanced by the new module architecture. 18650s have a cooling loop that starts cold at one end of the module and then warms as it goes through all cells one after another, so cooling capacity is limited by how warm the coolant is at the last cell in the entire module. The new Model 3 architecture has multiple parallel passages so they can end up with fewer cells per coolant passage, which means by the time the coolant reaches the outlet it shouldn't be as warm for a given C rate.

Of course Tesla could design a new 18650 pack using this newer cooling architecture and get even better cooling, but I suspect the trade-off in cooling vs C rates may favor the 2170s w/ new cooling architecture.

 

[kyzhk]

I took one for the team and checked out what Mark Spiegel is tweety-birding about this AM.

'Tezzla' isn't generating cash and is out of money: CrowPointPartners on Twitter
Demand cliff confirmed (Jan deliveries of the 3 are lower than Dec): TeslaCharts on Twitter
Discount InsideEVs numbers heavily (just prior to retweeting InsideEVs numbers as apparently trustworthy enough to illustrate the alleged demand cliff: Mark B. Spiegel on Twitter
'Libruls R Dum: Mark B. Spiegel on Twitter
Retweet of contrast between sales growth and SG&A contraction, and how this relates to customer service terribility (hey, he accidentally got one right!): Pivotal Capital on Twitter
Mark has a new policy of blocking 'teslemmings' who post 'inanities' at him (no word on when he'll self-block for extreme inanity): Mark B. Spiegel on Twitter

That takes us back one hour from present. So basically, still a denial of reality, internally-inconsistent claims, inability to abstain from including playground insults, and general tomfoolery.

Stupidity overflow. If these are who us longs are up against, we have already won the war.

Bet against them and prosperity follows, charge! Oh, I mean buy.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

From Gordon Johnson’s latest remarks:

“They just cut 7% of their workforce, and six months ago they cut 9% of their workforce,” Johnson said. “That's a 16% cut to people in the United States””

His math is bad and he should feel bad.

 

[ZachF]

At PPP.

Cost of living is lower in China.

Higher disposable income at lower nominal income.

PPP is very problematic, subject to lots of biases.

besides, you don't buy Teslas with theoretical PPP dollars anyways.

 

[EVNow]

Much sooner. They have to maintain a reasonable diversity in configs, and ideally regional diversity as well.

They need to max out overseas shipments, especially to China - but not at the expense of needlessly drying up US sales.

Ideally, yes. Not sure how easy it is for them to change from making EU/China bound 3s to US and vice-versa. Once they get GF3 (and GF4) going, they won't have this problem.

 

[EVNow]

PPP is very problematic, subject to lots of biases.

besides, you don't buy Teslas with theoretical PPP dollars anyways.

You just need to convert disposable income back to $. My software peers in India have very similar or better standard of living (and buy similarly priced cars) despite getting only 25% in wages.

They spend way less in child care, housing and medical, three of the biggest monthly expenses in US.

 

[gora321]

Tesla on Twitter

 

[Tenable]

Looks as though Mercedes is finally bringing a real Tesla killer to market. This is the first time I've seriously reconsidered my TSLA investment thesis. Thoughts?

 

[CorneliusXX]

My replies to your comments in blue are in green:



My view is that you have both misunderstood parts of my "steady state" analysis, and that you are also underestimating some of Tesla's structural strengths.

Man. This has turned into work emails

 

[Tenable]

Go away astroturfing troll. Nobody here believes you're a long with a "TSLA investment thesis".

Lol Karen, I assume you're joking. But this isn't the first time you've made a similar comment to me. So, joking, yes?

 

[KarenRei]

Lol Karen, I assume you're joking. But this isn't the first time you've made a similar comment to me. So, joking, yes?

Might have to do with your chosen profile icon? Nobody who was actually long Tesla would think that Tesla is "throwing money into a fire". Or did you forget that you set that?

(And no, suddenly changing your profile icon won't make you believable)

 

[mekberg]

From Gordon Johnson’s latest remarks:

“They just cut 7% of their workforce, and six months ago they cut 9% of their workforce,” Johnson said. “That's a 16% cut to people in the United States””

His math is bad and he should feel bad.

And the rest of the quote:

and now they're building a Gigafactory in China where they say they're going to produce a $35,000 car and then ship it to the United States to sell it.

Can't tell if just an idiot or trying to be deceitful.

Source (Yahoo): Analyst: 'Trump is going to come down on' Tesla

 

[Tenable]

That's because you were, and remain, an astroturfing troll. Kindly return to the cave from whence you came and leave us the f*** alone.

This should be fun. Now I understand why there are several posts about you. Ok Karen, please do a TMC search and show any evidence of me being an "astroturfing troll." I've been long for years, currently own 2 Tesla's and quite likely am far more heavily invested than you. Begin.

Edit: Also, perhaps watch the video I posted before losing your mind needlessly.

 

[Krugerrand]

The main argument against this is that Elon said the 3k production target in GF3 is only 10% of the end goal. So Tesla would spend money redesigning battery packs for all their vehicles for a subset of Chinese production.

I still think the medium term outcome is a full shift to 21700 cells once there is a decent refresh of the S and X. The Japanese factories can retool at this point .

No, he said phase one of GF3 would be 10% of its finals size, not that 3k was 10% of car production. Different.

 

[Tenable]

Might have to do with your chosen profile icon? Nobody who was actually long Tesla would think that Tesla is "throwing money into a fire". Or did you forget that you set that?

(And no, suddenly changing your profile icon won't make you believable)

4000 posts since you joined in 2017 with a thought process such as this. Noise from newer members such as yourself have made this forum painful to read. But please, keep blindly insulting TMC owner investors. I'm sure it'll serve our community well.

 

[ZachF]

No, he said phase one of GF3 would be 10% of its finals size, not that 3k was 10% of car production. Different.

As far as I can tell:

Phase 1 = ~150,000 M3s a year built with outsourced battery production and some components

Final = 500,000+ M3s and MYs a year built with attached battery and some component production.

Seems pretty easy to see how the bottom can be 10x the size of the top.

 

[SebastianR]

O.k., looks like we have been waaaay too bullish here (like by more than a factor of 10). [...]
Note 2: What went wrong was that we interpreted some serial number to be the number of applications when it really was an "Internet ID" according to someone who talked to the BAFA administration on the phone (I take that to be something like a session ID which counts up everytime someone accesses the online form for an application)

Kudos for owning up and explaining what happened. I feel a bit bad about this. I wished I had been wrong with my scepticism. But Germany will be a tough (but not a bad) place for the Model 3 initially.

 

[Buckminster]

Give me any sort of reasonable reason why you decided on profile icon popular on TSLAQ circles, sourced from a Bloomberg anti-Tesla hit piece.

Karen - only 36 disagrees. He is a goody..

 

[pz1975]

Okay, I'll bite: why did you choose a profile icon taken from an anti-Tesla Bloomberg hit piece, most commonly seen in TSLAQ circles?

It is a joke. I had that exact same avatar for awhile before changing to this one. My current one is also from an anti-Tesla article. That does not make me a troll. You are a great contributor here but need to refrain from sudden, baseless attacks.