International shipments update
The Tesla shipments data I've plotted below comes from the hard work of Franco Mossotto and friends:
Franco Mossotto on Twitter
Tesla's rate of shipments continues at a brisk pace. The data below plots the total number of days required to load each ship for overseas deliveries. This is not the total number of days docked - they are tracking the "idle time" at port separately as well. So the vehicle loading days give a hint for the relative number of cars being shipped overseas QoQ. The number of cars loaded per day is estimated to be between 1,000 and 1,500. The 1,500 number is based on shipments to Europe. I think random errors in this estimate may be more important than systematic errors. (unless someone has information that vehicle loading is getting more or less efficient through the year). For Q4, the yellow dots represent ships that have loaded and departed SFO, the blue dot is an estimate for the one ship that is in the harbor now.
We are way ahead of the pace of overseas shipments compared to Q1-Q3 and
have probably already surpassed the Q3 and Q2 totals by 3,000 - 5,000 vehicles with at least one more ship scheduled to load. If Tesla continues to load ships for another 3 weeks or so - as in previous quarters,
overseas shipments could surpass Q3 by 20,000 - 30,000 vehicles.
Note that this is
based only on shipments out of SFO. So that is why the revelation today that Tesla has also shipped vehicles out of Houston is a welcome surprise.
But wait - there's more! According to a tweet by Julien Krivascsy, yet another Tesla container ship (ANL Tongala) pulled a sneaky and departed for Australia/New Zealand this week from Long Beach CA
Julien KRIVACSY on Twitter. I have no information on the number of vehicles on this container ship and it's not in the google docs spreadsheet maintained by Franco.
As noted earlier today - there are still 2-3 ships worth of vehicles ready to be loaded at SFO. And according to Morten Grove, the latest ship to depart SFO for Europe may contain the
biggest shipment of TM3 ever.
Morten Grove on Twitter
Q4 is looking good!