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Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

JusRelax

Member
Apr 24, 2019
959
12,534
Los Angeles, CA
Put in my order for the base $39k model w/ FSD:

upload_2019-11-24_5-33-47.png
 

pnungesser

BarNun
Dec 9, 2015
284
1,327
Mill Spring, NC
For reasonably high energy rounds you could put an energy absorption / catch layer on the inside; the stainless, even if it can't catch a round on its own, will surely deform it / send it spinning, unless you're talking very high energy rounds. Ceramic is ideal for this role, but as far as metals go, hardened 301 stainless is certainly up there.

If you really want to go for the military market ,the thick, angular stainless hull should make it very easy to attach external armour, even reactive armour, to it (there's also some non-explosive reactive armour varieties if needed, which can even go on the inside). Military market would want it jacked up and with a V-hull added, though.

The windows, while designed to be damage resistant, do not appear to be bulletproof glass. One would have to replace them with actual bulletproof glass.



The angular style is a result of them wanting to armour the vehicle, as you can't realistically stamp 3mm 301 stainless without rapidly destroying your tooling. No need to armour a semi.

Yes, the pickup approach saves on tooling, but it also comes with really big costs of their own. That thick stainless is expensive, in terms of raw material costs.
I keep seeing discussions of military/combat uses for the CT. I can't figure how one would "refuel" an electric vehicle in combat. One can't just roll a Supercharger to the front lines. How might that work?
 
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jerry33

(S85-3/2/13 traded in) X LR: F2611##-3/27/20
Supporting Member
Mar 8, 2012
19,951
23,854
Texas
I keep seeing discussions of military/combat uses for the CT. I can't figure how one would "refuel" an electric vehicle in combat. One can't just roll a Supercharger to the front lines. How might that work?
The solar panel. Now true it doesn't charge that much, but typical military actions are hurry up and wait. Also only the first push uses a lot of range. I see this replacing ambulances and such. You won't see this vehicle in the front lines.
 
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mongo

Well-Known Member
May 3, 2017
13,290
40,616
Michigan
more mass (batteries as well as motors) and having one more always-on motor might get you there, but I think most of it will be the battery mass.
That seems like a crazy percentage of rolling vs aero resistance.

Amazing hint Musk gave then with the Y on x.com.

Like an inside joke.
The y has been there since May (or March definitely an M month)


Anyone think Semi could be moved on to this new straight edged stainless steel manufacturing platform?

Semi customers will be even more focussed on cost of ownership and utility so the manufacturing cost savings from this new method could make even more sense than for Pickup.

It would also mean no need for a paint shop installed at GF1 and lower capex generally for Semi. It's also likely going to be a much more modular production line where capacity can be added incrementally.

I'm sure all Tesla's extensive Semi Powertrain testing over the past 3 years will still be relevant, and I think they can be confident in the durability of the stainless steel body without years of further prototype testing.

I think this depends on whether an exoskeleton can pull the 40 tons loads that is required of semi tractors. In particular the overlapping form of most trailers:


The attachment point "8" goes well below the trailer, and it might not be possible to avoid building a steel frame for the Semi Truck that transfers load from the rear axles to the attachment point - at which point you might as well make a lighter cabin of aluminum or composites, to save on mass.

Like @Fact Checking brought up, the point loads of a semi do not go well with this form factor. Semi front axel load is 12k lbs, rear pair is 34k. Also, any body mass decreases payload. And there is the lack of available frame height due to needing a wide fifth wheel rotation angle.

Unplug everything that runs off the Powerwall, Plug the 240 into a wall socket. Unless the Powerwall has capacitors or some other mechanism to stop reverse flow, you will be charging it. (errata: In Puerto Rico, people plugged generators into a wall socket to power their house)

Only if you can configure PW to charge at a lower rate that the inverter provides.

The roller cover looks slated as a solar panel. Again physics driven for decent sun exposure and no shading.
Elon has called this out as an option. Up to 15 miles of range a day.

I keep seeing discussions of military/combat uses for the CT. I can't figure how one would "refuel" an electric vehicle in combat. One can't just roll a Supercharger to the front lines. How might that work?

Pull back and charge? Or have a battery truck instead of a fuel bowser.
 

sparcs

Active Member
Nov 8, 2018
1,180
6,954
USA
I keep seeing discussions of military/combat uses for the CT. I can't figure how one would "refuel" an electric vehicle in combat. One can't just roll a Supercharger to the front lines. How might that work?
Also what vehicle would it even replace in the military? Won't there be a huge weight penalty trying to make it IED resistant like a lot of military vehicles we see?
 

kbM3

Active Member
May 22, 2017
1,927
10,189
Orlando
The two dominating optimization factors for the pickup market are "rugged/go-anywhere" and "payload capacity". Very, very different optimization factors from passenger cars (and the former vs. semi trucks).



I strongly, strongly disagree with this. They set out to achieve specific goals as cheaply as possible.



1) That sounds way over-optimistic, many times over. Depreciation on a press and paint line is nowhere near that much - heck, depreciation on a whole vehicle line isn't that much -and you have to add in extra folding work to compensate, as well as deal with larger sheets. Model 3 total depreciation was reported by Deepak to be well under $2k per vehicle, and that's for all lines, and quite a while ago.

“Rod, we are very CapEx-efficient, overall. Let me just start from that point. And if we look at our depreciation costs on a per unit basis at steady run rate of 5,000 or so cars per week, we are in my mind well below most of our competitors – well below $2,000 per unit depreciation cost.”

For a "normal automaker", a press line for a high-volume vehicle costs a couple hundred million dollars, and tooling a couple hundred more, and a high-volume paint shop maybe $500M, but it can last for 2-3 decades or so. Call it a cool $1B. Tesla has gotten significantly more capital efficient than that of late, of course, but let's just stick with that. Now divide by many hundreds of thousands of vehicles per year over the depreciation period (Musk previously stated 700k/yr ultimate addressible market, but go ahead and assume less). $5-10k unit depreciation saved, plus the difference in materials costs? Not a chance.

2) The stainless sheet here is likely in the ballpark of ~4-5x more expensive than the mix of mild steel, high tensile steel, ultra high tensile steel, and alumium found in typical Tesla vehicles. Thousands of dollars more expensive.

3) While Tesla has done what appears to be an admirable job at managing to streamline a vehicle despite creases, the streamlining is in spite of the disadvantages of the creases not because of it. The creases nonetheless hurt streamlining vs. a smooth vehicle (those A-pillars in particular). Notice how there were no boasts about Cd this time - Tesla always boasts about their Cd, even on Semi. Cd is probably coming in somewhere between that of a streamlined sedan (S, 3) and a conventional pickup. A worse CD means more batteries, which is a much more significant cost.

You optimize to your design constraints. Pickup design constraints are about capabilities and ruggedness. Ruggedness dictates armour. Armour dictates creasing rather than stamping. Armour weight also dictates using it as a loadbearing structure, because otherwise you double up on your weight. Low-weight resistance of torque and torsion in the back for maximum loadbearing capabilities dictates a braced cantilever structure, pairing with the aero-required tonneau taper.

Result: the Cybertruck. But it's a consequence of its premises.

How do you explain the unbelievable price? Battery cost decline alone?

Cybertruck compares VERY favorably to Model Y and is cheaper.
 

jerry33

(S85-3/2/13 traded in) X LR: F2611##-3/27/20
Supporting Member
Mar 8, 2012
19,951
23,854
Texas
How do you explain the unbelievable price? Battery cost decline alone?

Cybertruck compares VERY favorably to Model Y and is cheaper.
Battery cost. Speed and ease of manufacturing. No paint. No skin that just there to cover the unibody frame. Probably more that I haven't thought of. But remember it's big, so not for those that are space constrained.
 

Krugerrand

Enough of the 🐩, back to 🐈‍⬛
Jul 13, 2012
11,402
61,846
Tesla friendly place
I am aware of that yeah. My opinion is as such in spite of this wording.

It just doesn't make any sense for Tesla to do this unless people pay the 7000$ today, but not for a 100$ refundable reservation. I could see a lower level manager having signed off on this wording without higher level approval. I'm skeptical for now until Elon personally confirms it on Twitter or during a conference call.

When you open your front door and it’s raining, do you wait for God to send you an e-mail confirming it’s raining before you grab you’re umbrella?

Seriously, you’re being ridiculous not skeptical.
 

mrmage

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Jan 10, 2019
506
2,933
The Peninsula, CA
S&X are sharing platforms.
3&Y are sharing platforms.
Cybertruck will share platform with what? Van? Minibus? RV?

tesla-mobile-service-van-ranger-KYLE.jpg


tesla_rv_ev_camcper_1200x900.jpg

Screen_Shot_2017-04-28_at_3.04.35_PM_grande.png

I think you’re right. Tesla can be cavalier about Cybertruck sales, because it’s just one variant out of many. By 2022 FSD is supposed to be in place, and Tesla will need a large platform like this for many applications.
 
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tschmidty

Member
Apr 17, 2019
178
856
Charlotte, NC
I believe the angular style is the result of them wanting to use folded stainless steel exoskeleton, which according to @Krugerrand requires almost no tooling, just a roll mill and laser cutters for the stainless steel panels. Very little welding is required, which all but eliminates three of the most capex intensive parts of a car manufacturing pipeline: the stamp lines, the body shop and the paint shop.

That is why the entry price of Cybertruck is so low, despite 3mm stainless steel: the stainless steel is utilized in a very mass efficient manner: it's both external skin/panels (which all cars need) and the frame, in one.

I.e. the "stainless steel exoskeleton" has in fact a triple role:
  • external aerodynamic surface (not as good as a Model S but certainly better than traditional pickup truck cabs)
  • external load bearing exoskeleton, replaces the frame
  • external skin, replaces car chassis panels
This triple role is what saves on mass and manufacturing costs - the downside is that the only realistic way to mass-manufacture such an exoskeleton is with angular shapes.

The fourth role: bullet protection and probably unprecedented side crash and high density object intrusion protection factor (trees, poles, engines of other cars, etc.), is mostly just a happy side effect: make it much thinner and the exoskeleton would buckle, vibrate (noisily) and dent easily.

With all that in mind I agree with @ReflexFunds that they should take a good look at a stainless steel Semi Truck - especially as commercial fleet operators would pay a handsome premium for stainless steel vehicles.

+50% premium for stainless steel "never needs a repaint, never corrodes" commercial vehicles would be easily justified - like it is for stainless steel professional kitchenware which costs more like a +200% or +300% premium.

The counter-argument would be that the steel frame of semi tractors is incredibly strongly constructed, to pull up to 40 tons of loads, which might not be easily replaced by an exoskeleton design. Also, the Semi is much more battery pack and powertrain cost dominated, the price of the cab is much smaller than for pickup trucks or regular cars.

What are the odds they could build an exoskeleton that could function as a semi? 0%
 
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Krugerrand

Enough of the 🐩, back to 🐈‍⬛
Jul 13, 2012
11,402
61,846
Tesla friendly place
People are warming up to the Cybertruck. The market was pretty sour on Tesla Friday. But I am thinking that investors too will warn up to the Cybertruck and appreciate the opportunity it presents for Tesla. I'm expecting the stock price to start a gradual ascent on Monday.

Life lesson in this for people. Just here the number of people waving their arms and jumping up and down about how this was an epic fail, is this a joke, blah, blah, blah. Many of those same people now are, I’m buying it, smashed window be damned.

Step away from the keyboard/keep your mouth shut until your brain can engage and digest.

I was buying the truck regardless of looks (and said so on this board) because I have more important reasons not pertaining to aesthetics. And even I needed a few minutes to wrap my brain around the look because though I was prepared for a lot of possible ‘out there’ looks, that particular one wasn’t in my mind’s eye.

So many people in a hurry to express themselves and have their opinions ‘heard’. Be less of a loudmouth fool by waiting for your brain to catch up to your mouth. You’ll be respected and viewed as a thoughtful human worth listening to.
 

KarenRei

ᴉǝɹuǝɹɐʞ
Jul 18, 2017
9,619
103,836
Iceland
I keep seeing discussions of military/combat uses for the CT. I can't figure how one would "refuel" an electric vehicle in combat. One can't just roll a Supercharger to the front lines. How might that work?

Forward operating bases:

Scr_080205-D-1852B-002.jpg


a-high-angle-view-of-the-front-gate-of-the-forward-operating-base-located-at-ccb45f-1600.jpg


army.mil-107026-2011-05-02-060547.jpg


Use housing that has integrated solar, and you've eliminated the (very risky) need for fuel deliveries. The US military is already working on doing more to integrate solar into its facilities - all issues of EVs aside - for this reason alone (providing for local generation needs).

In the meantime, diesel generators at the FOBs can supply the power needs.
 

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