Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jhm]

Cannot believe that “What If” channel took the mania of CyberTruck and made this Video 5 days after the presentation. A lot of images of CT and very funny conclusion. I suspect if will have positive impact on stock price . The subscriber of the channel are mostly open minded people and accept new things and ideas easily

On Facebook the title is
“What if every car was a #Cybertruck?”

This seems to suggest that the Cybertruck is not recyclable. This is not helpful.

 

[Steve m]

After reading numerous headlines over the year, I have come to the conclusion that 4 types of vehicles share our roads. These are cars, motorcycles, trucks and Teslas.

 

[RobStark]

If the future importance of x/s is truly low, they could still bring some family resemblance to the designs through a minor refresh of a few key parts. (and a little D.O.T. lobbying)

View attachment 482085

That would be an ongoing change!

Tesla doesn't do "refreshes!"

 

[Rb48888]

That would be an ongoing change!

Tesla doesn't do "refreshes!"

Oops.

Just meant an ongoing change, limited in scope.

Nothing to see here.

[crawls back under rock]

 

[RobStark]

The compliance part is where it will be sold: 60% Europe, 40% elsewhere. Where do you think that 40% will be sold? My guess is mainly California and other CARB states. People in non-CARB states will probably struggle to get one, just like with all of the other compliance EVs.

Many here suggest Tesla should starve non-European markets in favor of EU markets next year in order to accumulate credits to sell to FCA-PSA worth upwards of $10k per Tesla(perhaps more if PSA doesn't sell enough BEVs to satisfy the supercredit provisions). Does that make Model 3 a compliance vehicle?

Of the 3100 US Ford dealers over 2100 are already Mach E certified, including outside of CARB states.. Prohibiting any one of those 2100 from fairly buying Mach E runs afoul of various franchise dealer laws.

No franchised dealer in non-CARB states has every filed a complaint about not being able to acquire BEVs because there wasn't sufficient demand to make a difference to dealer bottom line.

 

[nativewolf]

@Lycanthrope
I looked at the CT and went, ugly, but utilitarian, and trucks (like mine) get dents, dings, rust (2003 Chevy S10)
Then I thought, got a brain spasm, zzzzttt.
CT is 75kw, powerwall is 13.5kw
Therefore 1 CT = 5.5 powerwalls (small model)
Look at cost for 1-3 powerwalls on Tesla.com
Holy jumping jehosephat!!!

Therefore I buy 1 CT, get 5.5 powerwalls AND a —>free<— truck
What’s not to like? (Plus no rust)
Edit:
I expect to see a bunch of them at Burning Man
There is an AEZ (alternative energy zone) that only allows renewables
Haul in your stuff, power the camp,etc

I've been mentioning the same, you get a truck for free if you buy the 5-7 powerwalls. I'd be going for a long range version. The larger implication is that something has changed on the battery side for this to be true so it is likely that overall range's and cost picture will be changing and this may be part of the battery day news.

Other benefits: No Hail damage. No shopping cart damage. No Keying damage. No deer/elk/moose damage (ok...maybe lights). No chipped windshields (sure fire you will get chipped windshields every 4-5 years in northern va),

 

[SO16]

Many here suggest Tesla should starve non-European markets in favor of EU markets next year in order to accumulate credits to sell to FCA-PSA worth upwards of $10k per Tesla(perhaps more if PSA doesn't sell enough BEVs to satisfy the supercredit provisions). Does that make Model 3 a compliance vehicle?
.

Is Tesla needing to sell model 3’s in order to sell their other vehicles without being fined?

 

[Unpilot]

Is Tesla needing to sell model 3’s in order to sell their other vehicles without being fined?

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say no.

 

[jhm]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Yep, shorting is an inefficient use of capital. But don't tell TSLAQ. They won't understand and will just turn on you for bringing it up.

Basically, stock that look like a good short on fundamentals (light gray) perform pretty well anyway. You're better off picking good stocks tmto go long on (black) and ignore the rest. Trying to have a mixed long short portfolio (L/S medium gray) just waters down returns on a risk adjusted basis (Sharpe ratio).

For small cap, there is almost not performance difference between strong longs and strong shorts. If you think a certain stock will underperform, "Just ignore it" may be the best advice.

Ok, fire away.

 

[Beltsbear]

Many here suggest Tesla should starve non-European markets in favor of EU markets next year in order to accumulate credits to sell to FCA-PSA worth upwards of $10k per Tesla(perhaps more if PSA doesn't sell enough BEVs to satisfy the supercredit provisions). Does that make Model 3 a compliance vehicle?

Wow. Never thought about the increased euro shipments that way. This is a major cash cow. Double profits for EU shipments?

 

[nativewolf]

There're plenty of ways to damage any vehicle including CT. Spray paint, deflate the tires, exacto knife on the windows, damage the roll-up aluminum thing on the back, steal the license plate, open a motor oil container and place it at the bottom of the windshield to empty into the HVAC air intake, remove the lug nuts, epoxy or Super Glue in some strategic place, steal the windshield wipers, gasoline and a match, or forget the car and mug the driver on return. Remember all those ruined SUV's around the WTC on 9/11 that people thought would save them when the apocalypse came? There are always ways to cause harm and a tough vehicle probably won't save you.

Sure you can damage a vehicle. The point being that lots of things that normally damage vehicles (animals, hail, small collisions) won't damage this one.

 

[NakedLong]

Here's the Google Translate version of the original article, with readability [edits] by me:

"According to Tesla's original plan, Model Y was originally scheduled to be produced at the end of [2020] but the recent supply chain is expected to be mass-produced in the summer of next year. [The supply chain] is ready, but has recently started to receive notifications, and the schedule is advanced to the fourth quarter of this year."

"Not only the Model Y, supply chain operators said they are also preparing to supply the recently released Tesla Truck Semi-related components simultaneously."​

Does this mean that there were two accelerations of the Model Y supply-chain ramp-up schedule, first by 6 months from Q4'2020 to Q2'2020 (which process was completed, and which schedule was confirmed by Elon during the Q3 conference call), then by another 6 months, "recently" from Q2'2020 to Q4'2019?

Does this mean that the first Model Y deliveries are possible in Q1'2020 already?

Did I get this right, or is there only a single acceleration of the Model Y schedule?

If Tesla is indeed attempting to accelerate Model Y deliveries to Q1'2020, together with working down the GF3 pent-up order book, Q1 results could easily surprise the bears who are already salivating at and counting on a repeat of Q1'2019 ...

Especially since Q1 doesn't have to be a blockbuster over Q4: if Q1'2020 is just borderline profitable then TSLA will have a good chance to be eligible for S&P 500 inclusion ...

China output combined with Model Y is going to break the SP. I was just browsing TSLAQ and they still are hung up on accounting fraud, empty parking lots and exec departures, etc. I'm never sure if they actually believe what they write or are just trying to manipulate the stock. Tesla is a great example of why the Efficient Market Hypothesis is wrong.

In a way though I wouldn't mind one more pre-China/Model Y quarter, to load up on 10% more in the low 300s, before I expect a big jump over 400.

On the CT, I initially hated it so much, but now I begrudgingly like the looks (or at least the boldness of the design) - it only took 24 hours for me to change my view of it, so I guess other people will do the same as they get used to it. It's going to be weird though because Tesla will sell 500K per year I guess, and you will see them everywhere. It will be very interesting to see how the perception of the truck changes over time, but I guess it will just seem normal soon enough to everyone.

 

[MP3Mike]

@Lycanthrope
I looked at the CT and went, ugly, but utilitarian, and trucks (like mine) get dents, dings, rust (2003 Chevy S10)
Then I thought, got a brain spasm, zzzzttt.
CT is 75kw, powerwall is 13.5kw
Therefore 1 CT = 5.5 powerwalls (small model)
Look at cost for 1-3 powerwalls on Tesla.com
Holy jumping jehosephat!!!

Therefore I buy 1 CT, get 5.5 powerwalls AND a —>free<— truck

It really isn't the same. With 5 Powerwalls you get the gateway/ADC, 25kW, 35kW peak, worth of inverters, and the software to sync to the grid and charge/discharge as needed. The CT will likely only have a 5-10kW outlet that can only supply power, it can't be charged by it. And can't be hooked to the grid. could you jury-rig it to your house? Yes, but it wouldn't be up to code, and could cause damage. So it wouldn't be able to power near as much in a house as 5 Powerwalls. It is also possible that the 240v outlet will be more limited to maybe 2.5kW of output.

Until more detailed specs are available we really don't know...

 

[Prunesquallor]

Electrek is reporting that the first year of Mustang Mach-E production is limited to 50k cars and has been sold out. They also mention that they are allocating 60% of that production for Europe to help them meet the emission requirements there...

This all makes sense. Ford has about the same EU market share as FCA (6%), so my earlier FCA-Tesla assessment roughly applies. 30,000 Ford EVs sold in the EU in 2022 will just about use up their Super-Credits. That’s the biggest penalty reduction bang-for-the-buck with limited production. I’d estimate penalty reduction of ~400 million euros in 2022 (if they can actually sell 30,000 Mach-E's).

 

[Electroman]

#Gf4 #Gigafactory4 on Twitter

Clearing trees from the area around GF4 might begin in December.

I am sure the haters out there who never cared abut the environment until now, will now run the clearing of trees video in a loop to maximize anti-Tesla FUD

 

[Dan Detweiler]

WARNING! WARNING!

Beware...this appears to be a genuinely bullish narrative from...wait for it...CNBC!
Are you kidding me? The funny thing is to look at the face of the guy on the right when they pan back to show them all. TOO FUNNY!

Dan

 

[Electroman]

While I think, based on the filings, that Unsworth is a questionable character and Elon was right not to settle

Not sure why Unsworth character other than the fact that he is a pedo or not, really matters here ?

Even if he is a 3rd rate scumbag, Elon's comment would have to be assessed solely on the merit of if he is a pedo or not, and nothing else should be brought up in trail in front of jury.

 

[madodel]

Not sure why Unsworth character other than the fact that he is a pedo or not, really matters here ?

Even if he is a 3rd rate scumbag, Elon's comment would have to be assessed solely on the merit of if he is a pedo or not, and nothing else should be brought up in trail in front of jury.

I think the point is this guy has no reputation to damage.

 

[M3Rider]

Don't know this guy, but I think he brought an interesting point re: Tesla branding

You can start watching @4:10, before that is a rehash.

 

[kbM3]

Does that make Model 3 a compliance vehicle?

Compliance vehicles are those created because of government regulations.

The technical term for Model 3 is Civilization Savior