Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Buckminster]

Really valid point. Although this is late 2021 truck, so perhaps Powerwall economics will have changed by then. That being said, still likely the CT will represent a tremendous deal.

Also have to wonder what this means for Powerwall margins. They should be increasing rapidly.

Price of every vehicle will most likely decrease significantly over the next 2 years due to Cybertruck.

 

[Fact Checking]

Musk won't settle 'pedo guy' defamation lawsuit, lawyer says
Elon won't settle the Unsworth case.

This was to be expected - all the pre-trial filings and positioning were pointing in this direction.

While I think, based on the filings, that Unsworth is a questionable character and Elon was right not to settle, I also think the mainstream business media is probably going to reach new lows covering the trial, and I believe recently increased conviction of the shorts/bears to cap the price suggests that they are counting on a negative anti-Elon narrative around the Unsworth trial.

Here's a recap of what information discovery unearthed about Unsworth:

I've been following the Unsworth vs. Musk saga on and off:

Docket for Vernon Unsworth v. Elon Musk, 2:18-cv-08048 - CourtListener.com
​

And that lawsuit appears to be a cluster-sugar for Unsworth, in a really bad way.

Discovery must have really gone against Unsworth, and they filed to exclude a dozen pieces of evidence Elon's team found against Unsworth from being seen by jurors:

NOTICE OF MOTION AND MOTION IN LIMINE to Exclude Evidence filed by Plaintiff Vernon Unsworth. Motion set for hearing on 11/25/2019 at 03:00 PM before Judge Stephen V. Wilson.(Wade, Nicole) (Entered: 11/04/2019)​

Which motion was opposed by Elon's team:

Objection/Opposition (Motion related) – #106 in Vernon Unsworth v. Elon Musk (C.D. Cal., 2:18-cv-08048) – CourtListener.com​

The evidence they were trying to get the jury not to see is a laundry list that paints Unsworth in a very unflattering fashion:

• "Mr. Unsworth, however, does not want to live by these rules. For example, he seeks to keep the jury from knowing that: (a) both Mr. Unsworth and his expert have admitted that they have no evidence that his reputation has been harmed, e.g., that no one believes that Mr. Unsworth is a pedophile or child rapist (No. 4);
• (b) Mr. Unsworth has been on a campaign, starting when the rescue was still underway, to claim fame and fortune for himself, while diminishing the role and recognition accorded everyone else involved, and that his damage-less lawsuit is a mere manifestation of that campaign (Nos. 2 and 7); and
• (c) he already had a negative business reputation due to a government determination that his company had engaged in unlawful business practices. (No. 5.) This evidence is relevant and admissible. Similarly, the jury will have to decide whether it was “reasonably foreseeable”that BuzzFeed would republish Mr. Musk’s “off-the-record” email.
  
• Mr. Unsworth seeks to exclude evidence and testimony regarding his partner, Tik, who gave an interview to the Thai news outlet, Big Kren, that reported: “When asked about Elon Musk’s accusation that her husband was a pedophile, Tik said that her husband found that humorous.”"

Elon's lawyers were also hinting at various other bits of evidence, like that he abandoned his family in the UK when he moved to Thailand, and that Unsworth's partner allegedly wrote about "night work" that requires "fortitude":

• Mr. Unsworth seeks to preclude Mr. Musk from offering evidence that Mr. Unsworth abandoned his wife and daughter when he moved to Thailand, and that his daughter refuses to communicate with him as a result.
  
• Mr. Unsworth also seeks to preclude evidence and testimony regarding a post Tik made on the Jobpub.com discussion board regarding night work, in which a web user with Tik’s email address(to which Tik testified that only she has access) made the following post: “There are lots of types of night work. I work at night. The money’s good, too. But you need a bit of fortitude. You can contact me.”

Is "night work" for women that requires "a bit of fortitude" the obvious euphemism in Thailand too that it is elsewhere?

Elon's team is also hinting at other types of evidence against Unsworth:

• "Mr. Musk has no intention of presenting evidence at trial regarding Mr. Unsworth’s or any witnesses’ pornography tendencies, adult or otherwise. However, in Mr. Unsworth’s lawsuit regarding accusations of pedophilia, the truth or falsity of that allegation is relevant. If Mr. Unsworth opens the door to pornography in his case-in-chief, Mr. Musk cannot be foreclosed from exploring it, with the Court’s approval at trial."

That motion also includes interesting new tidbits about how Buzzfeed violated their own rules of journalistic ethics by publishing Elon's off-the-record email, and then after Elon pointed out that they violated their own rules they modified their rules to make it appear as if publishing off-the-record emails was fine ... It also mentions evidence that Unsworth's lawyer was in contact with Buzzfeed and Elon's off-the-record email was published at her request (!).

Plus it looks like Elon might have succeeded in securing testimony from the real cave diving team, against Unsworth:

• "Mr. Unsworth asks the Court to exclude two witnesses on Mr. Musk’s trial witness list, Ben Reymenants and Ray Lightfoot (aka Raymond Huber), on the grounds that they were not disclosed as potential witnesses until Mr. Musk served his trial witness list on November 1. The Court should deny this request."

I presume these two gentlemen would be willing to go on the record as in what light the cave rescue team viewed Mr. Unsworth?

I.e. Unsworth doesn't look like a hero at all, and was absolutely fishing for a payday. His stunt on CNN might have been part of a payday campaign to begin with.

Instead of defending their motion, Unsworth withdrew it:

• Notice of Withdrawal of Motion to Compel, 84, Motion to Compel, 86 filed by Plaintiff Vernon Unsworth. (Wood, L) (Entered: 11/11/2019)

Which is basically unilateral capitulation.

Unsworth's lawyers also withdrew their 'expert witness', after Elon's team objected:

• NOTICE OF WITHDRAWAL OF ERIC ROSE AS AN EXPERT WITNESS re MOTION IN LIMINE (#4) to Exclude the Expert Opinion of Eric W. Rose 100 filed by Plaintiff Vernon Unsworth. (Wade, Nicole) (Entered: 11/13/2019)

The objection by Elon's team is a SMH read:

In Limine - Exclude – #100 in Vernon Unsworth v. Elon Musk (C.D. Cal., 2:18-cv-08048) – CourtListener.com

"As explained below, Mr. Rose has not used any recognized methodology or facts to opine that Mr. Unsworth needs his “reputation recovery” plan, that its $30 million price tag is justified, or that a jury can even consider this evidence. He plans to offer other improper, speculative, and unsupported opinions based on untestable “subjective” judgments, his instincts, and a review of the record in which he considered no depositions and no document the parties produced. For example, despite his having put on blinders, and possessing no education or experience in psychology or psychiatry (or a college degree in any field), Mr. Rose wants to testify as to what Mr. Musk was thinking when he took certain actions and to usurp the jury’s role by opining that it was “reasonably foreseeable” for BuzzFeed to republish Mr. Musk’s August 30, 2018 emails to its reporter, Ryan Mac."​

Eric Rose was the "designated expert" in Unsworth's lawsuit, he was the one who offered expert testimony as to the damages Unsworth suffered, and would also testify as to the meaning and effect of Elon's tweets. Elon's expert will now be heard by the jury, unopposed by Unsworth's expert.

In light of these facts I wouldn't be surprised if Unsworth already approached Elon's team, trying to explore a settlement - and Elon refused.

While the trial is certainly going to be a spectacle, and the usual suspects will be spinning it against Elon - I think Elon has pretty good chances at this point.

Previously I thought Unsworth should probably win a monetary settlement in addition to the apology from Elon - now I'm more of the opinion that the jury should see all that evidence and decide whether Unsworth deserves a single dollar.

I believe Elon's team will be able to present much of this evidence during the trial - not that I expect it to have a great positive effect on media bias.

 

[ClimateOptimst]

So like many here the Cybertruck virus has grown in my head in the days since the reveal. A better understanding of the logic behind the design as described by insightful posts to this forum and the MotorTrend articles, as well as its sheer functionality, and bad-assedness have slowly brought out the beauty in the beast I saw drive onstage. For background, I live & work in some of the reddest states in the union and do a lot of hunting, camping, and work out of my rig (currently a Jeep Trailhawk, formerly a F150) in remote & rural parts of the northern Rockies and Great Plains. Although I’m a big Elon fan & have held TSLA stock for a few years and plan to for many more, I had no a priori interest or intention to again own a full size truck when I tuned in to watch the unveiling. But the CT capabilities are just too appealing and hit so many sweet spots—long range to minimize the need for Superchargers in a region where they are sparse, low maintenance & no worries about dents or scratches, good clearance for crazy terrain and heavily rutted roads, full sized truck bed and crew cab to haul & secure all requisite gear, armored and able to shrug off a nighttime collision with a deer or elk that unfortunately lead to many highway fatalities each year and/or large numbers of insurance claims, FSD to assist with long monotonous drives on endless highways, etc.

Many of these practical aspects, further enhanced by the work related functionality that an air pump and high voltage electrical outlets provide, will also I think greatly broaden the appeal and ultimately make CT attractive to the farming & ranching crowd. It will take longer to penetrate these conservative communities for sure, but these are very practical & frugal folk that’ll get past the looks once they understand what it means to their bottom lines. Any successful farmer can quote you the price to the penny that day of a bushel of corn or soybeans, the price of an acre of land near where they live, the maintenance costs of their work rigs over their service lives, and you can be darn sure they know how much they spend on diesel each year because if they didn’t, they’d be out of business. Just like any community, there’ll be some early adopters & CT now gives those folks a powerful & tangible tool to demonstrate the practicality of the EV revolution. Once it’s clear that fueling up means simply tapping into energy from the wind and solar farms that are blossoming now in many rural areas, while also decreasing the likelihood that a son or daughter has to go fight the next oil war while you also get to drive a badass American made truck with low lifetime maintenance costs, it’ll be Katy bar the door. Whether a large portion of the future truck market falls into Tesla’s lap remains to be seen, but Elon’s CT just expanded the company’s forcing function to a significant new market segment that’ll make the incumbents get serious about EVs if they want to survive. I look forward to being one of those redstate early adopters a few years hence—now if I can just find a way to live with this incurable virus…

 

[flabellina]

This was to be expected - all the pre-trial filings and positioning were pointing in this direction.

While I think, based on the filings, that Unsworth is a questionable character and Elon was right not to settle, I also think the mainstream business media is probably going to reach new lows covering the trial, and I believe recently increased conviction of the shorts/bears to cap the price suggests that they are counting on a negative anti-Elon narrative around the Unsworth trial.

Here's a recap of what information discovery unearthed about Unsworth:



I believe Elon's team will be able to present much of this evidence during the trial - not that I expect it to have a great positive effect on media bias.

Thank you very much for these lawsuits analysis. Like the analysis you did with the SEC case, this is very informative and helpful.

 

[printf42]

Market OT:
Google Translate
Tesla surrounding cam help police to crack insurance fraud gang.

This article is circulating Chinese media today, good publicity in preparation for MIC model 3.

One notable detail is the Tesla was on autopilot, so the owner didn’t believe he was at fault, and refused to settle under the table, then people in other car just walked away.
And that’s why he started to suspect it was fraud and post video online, the video went viral and triggered Police investigations after other people claimed similar encounters.

 

[Thekiwi]

CNBC TV anchor just now calling Ford “weak” for chickening out of the CT vs F150 tug of war rematch.

 

[Zero CO2]

Price of every vehicle will most likely decrease significantly over the next 2 years due to Cybertruck.

you mean Tesla vehicle i hope...

 

[Zero CO2]

This was her argument. You can literally fill a fridge with beer, roll it up the built in ramp...and plug it in. Now thats facility.

Canadian chicks. Whadayagunnado.

even Yeti needs to worry about CT... need a plug in version of their coolers

 

[RobStark]

Electrek is reporting that the first year of Mustang Mach-E production is limited to 50k cars and has been sold out. They also mention that they are allocating 60% of that production for Europe to help them meet the emission requirements there.

So it seems that at least for now the Mach-E is a compliance car. I wouldn't say Ford is taking a step in the right direction, but they have at least turned toward the right direction.

It doesn't seem like it is likely to hurt the Model Y sales much, if at all.

Limited to 50k cars because of cell availability constraints.

Production capacity is said to be 100k units per year.

If being cell constrained means compliance car then every BEV is a compliance car.

Of course it won't hurt Model Y demand. If Ford produced 200k Mace E per year it wouldn't hurt Model Y sales.

 

[MP3Mike]

The next Tesla "innovation" is out: A mobile Supercharging station using a Megapack: Brian Swenson on Twitter

It looks like it has 8 Urban Superchargers, with extra long cables, on it. Just drop the trailer and you can charge up to 100 cars. I wonder if they will have some kind of grid connection to recharge it? (There is what looks like a 120v extension cord trailing off to somewhere, but that really isn't going to do much. Maybe it is a network connection? Most likely a ground connection.)

 

[MP3Mike]

Limited to 50k cars because of cell availability constraints.

Production capacity is said to be 100k units per year.

If being cell constrained means compliance car then every BEV is a compliance car.

The compliance part is where it will be sold: 60% Europe, 40% elsewhere. Where do you think that 40% will be sold? My guess is mainly California and other CARB states. People in non-CARB states will probably struggle to get one, just like with all of the other compliance EVs.

 

[Thekiwi]

The next Tesla "innovation" is out: A mobile Supercharging station using a Megapack: Brian Swenson on Twitter

It looks like it has 8 Urban Superchargers, with extra long cables, on it. Just drop the trailer and you can charge up to 100 cars. I wonder if they will have some kind of grid connection to recharge it? (There is what looks like a 120v extension cord trailer off to somewhere, but that really isn't going to do much. Maybe it is a network connection?)

This is pretty cool - will be good for mass tesla events, like a CyberTruck racing league day.

 

[goinfraftw]

Y'know, looking at TSLA stock chart m-o-m (switch to "All" view):

TSLA Stock Price and Chart — TradingView

...it looks incredibly bullish leading into Q4/2019 deliveries report as well as earnings. Further, we also have the start of the...

*whispers* Paris Climate Accord *whispers*

...on 1/2020.

 

[Thekiwi]

CNBC TV anchor just now calling Ford “weak” for chickening out of the CT vs F150 tug of war rematch.

Followup - now watching the International CNBC TV feed - and they again discussed Ford chickening out of the CT vs F150 challenge.

This is fantastic marketing for Tesla, and absolutely horrible marketing for Ford.

 

[MP3Mike]

This is pretty cool - will be good for mass tesla events, like a CyberTruck racing league day.

Yep, people should be able to rent them for events like track days, i.e. Tesla Corsa

 

[Lessmog]

I'll add (relative to my edits here - Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable) that I highly doubt that all of the strength is in the skin. Rather, I imagine that they're doing something like hat stringers or whatnot welded to the skin. In that design, the skin is still an integral part of the strength-absorbing structure rather than just being dead mass. But it's not the only structural mass. Gotta stretch significantly out of plane if you want to get a high moment of inertia.

Indeed, Musk specifically made an airplane analogy. Well, airplanes use stringers in addition to their skin. He also mentioned Starship. Starship, likewise, uses hat stringers.

So, stick something in a rocket and call it Macaroni?

Impressive encyclopedic know-how. (I'd tip my hat to you but it's welded to my skin.)

 

[Boomer19]

mashable article about the fisker

lease / buy terms seem very flexible. i wonder how they make that work on the books
First side view of upcoming Fisker Ocean electric SUV shows its shape — Mashable

looks cool, but we’ll see when more details come out i guess.
sorry for apple news link, my uncle sent it to me.

 

[jhm]

Inspite of Cybertruckmania, today is the day before Thanksgiving. I expect the stock to trade down. Not to worry, it will likely perk up next week. So back the cybertruck up and get a double helping shares on holiday discount.

And most of all have a Happy Thanksgiving.

Trading today turned out better than I anticipated. Happy to be wrong. Still think we've got a substantial run ahead of us.

Meanwhile, I enjoyed doing some crafts today with my daughter.

"Dema don't control us." - TøP

 

[JRP3]

The next Tesla "innovation" is out: A mobile Supercharging station using a Megapack: Brian Swenson on Twitter

It looks like it has 8 Urban Superchargers, with extra long cables, on it. Just drop the trailer and you can charge up to 100 cars.

Or, don't drop the trailer, pull it down the highway, add a bunch of these

and you never have to stop for a charge!

 

[RFernatt]

Cannot believe that “What If” channel took the mania of CyberTruck and made this Video 5 days after the presentation. A lot of images of CT and very funny conclusion. I suspect if will have positive impact on stock price . The subscriber of the channel are mostly open minded people and accept new things and ideas easily

On Facebook the title is
“What if every car was a #Cybertruck?”

What if all cars were indestructible? This guy would still have a truck. See? Should have got the CT...

...