Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[engle]

$9.99/mo is great for Premium Connectivity am very happy to pay as an owner. Would anyone like to guess how much Q revenue this will add 2020 Q1? I wonder what they pay for 4G LTE cell data per vehicle? Any guesses? For those that think $9.99/mo is too much, note that SIRI(us) charges $15.99 for just music and Howard Stern:

"OFFER DETAILS: Activate a Select subscription and pay $60 for your first 12 months, a savings of 68% off the current monthly rate of $15.99" [I was a SIRI early adopter and bought 400 shares for $1.66 on 8/8/2011 when it was uncertain if they would survive. Only reason I still own is they bought Pandora last year.]

Q_gross = 3 * $9.99/mo * uptake_percentage * num_vehicles
Q_net = Q_gross - ( monthly_cell_data * num_vehicles )

Since comped Premium Connectivity ends 12/31/2019 all these new subs will start counting in Q1 which historically is slow.

If monthly_cell_data = $3/vehicle (wild guess), then over time:

1M subs = $84M/yr; 2M subs = $168M/yr; 3M subs = $252M/yr; 5M subs = $420M/yr; 10M subs = $840M/yr

IMHO, TSLA should reinvest part of the sub $$ into developing additional subscription services so they can add higher tier(s), say $14.99/mo and $19.99/mo. One thing I personally want is Google StreetView integration.

I find it interesting that we can use the web browser in nav on autopilot. Personally, I only do it in < 20 mph freeway traffic. On a road trip from LA to Fremont yesterday, for fun I kept the Yahoo! Finance TSLA stock price live updating: (the cord leads to my windshield suction cup-mounted radar detector )

I asked the IR director at the 2018 stockholders meeting if TSLA is considering offering built-in AMZN Alexa connectivity. I figured they could work out a deal to get a cut of all the stuff we voice order in our cars, etc. He said: "Elon would never do that." Of course, now there is Echo Auto. As an investor, I think TSLA should do everything they can to monetize our time spent in their vehicles. It can be done through the web browser today using a shopping portal.

Tesla is starting to charge $10/month for its Premium Connectivity package. Also now available for SR+ owners (but still no 1 year free trial for new SR+ orders).

Via: @InSpaceXItrust

Connectivity

"If you purchased your Tesla on or after July 1, 2018 and have an expected Premium Connectivity trial end date on or before December 31, 2019, you will maintain Premium Connectivity until returning to Standard Connectivity on January 1, 2020.

All deliveries of Model 3 Standard Range and Standard Range Plus on or before December 31, 2019 will receive a 30-day complimentary Premium Connectivity trial."

 

[MarcusMaximus]

BIll Gates is several things, none of them positive.

As CEO of Microsoft he devised the terrible, terrible strategy of "Embrace, Extend, Extinguish", which not only set the global IT-development back by years, but was also found in court to be illegal.

He and Microsoft's terrible, terrible product quality is the reason why IT has such a terrible image and why people in general expect IT to malfunction and that power-cycling devices to see if they then work is a practice deemed normal.

Microsoft has probably managed to set back the development of IT by three decades.

One reason why I believe in Tesla is their view on technology, including the fact that they chose Linux for their automotive platform.

In fairness to Microsoft, just yesterday, my ultrasonics suddenly shut down in the middle of my commute, resulting in NoA and auto lane change not working( with an error message on the IC). After getting to work, those messages were still there, so I rebooted the car... and it fixed everything. Windows is hardly alone in that behavior.

 

[Beltsbear]

BIll Gates is several things, none of them positive.

As CEO of Microsoft he devised the terrible, terrible strategy of "Embrace, Extend, Extinguish", which not only set the global IT-development back by years, but was also found in court to be illegal.

He and Microsoft's terrible, terrible product quality is the reason why IT has such a terrible image and why people in general expect IT to malfunction and that power-cycling devices to see if they then work is a practice deemed normal.

Microsoft has probably managed to set back the development of IT by three decades.

One reason why I believe in Tesla is their view on technology, including the fact that they chose Linux for their automotive platform.

And Bill Gates hurt small computer builders in the USA. The licensing costs and system gave builders like Dell and Gateway a huge advantage over small white box builders in the early 2000’s and later. I have no love for Gates and Microsoft either. Even today Microsoft drives us away from their product for no reason with absolutely weird penalties for virtualization. I have replaced many servers where I have a choice with Linux for that reason and am glad to say I work in a place where we have hundreds of machines with Linux running on the desktop.

 

[GOVA]

BIll Gates is several things, none of them positive.

As CEO of Microsoft he devised the terrible, terrible strategy of "Embrace, Extend, Extinguish", which not only set the global IT-development back by years, but was also found in court to be illegal.

He and Microsoft's terrible, terrible product quality is the reason why IT has such a terrible image and why people in general expect IT to malfunction and that power-cycling devices to see if they then work is a practice deemed normal.

Microsoft has probably managed to set back the development of IT by three decades.

One reason why I believe in Tesla is their view on technology, including the fact that they chose Linux for their automotive platform.

I know this is not the place to discuss this further, but I'd like to find out your reasoning behind this especially

"Microsoft has probably managed to set back the development of IT by three decades."

I've been in IT for years on both sides of the pond and curious about this a lot. PM me if you could share your thoughts.

 

[jerry33]

And Bill Gates hurt small computer builders in the USA. The licensing costs and system gave builders like Dell and Gateway a huge advantage over small white box builders in the early 2000’s and later. I have no love for Gates and Microsoft either. Even today Microsoft drives us away from their product for no reason with absolutely weird penalties for virtualization. I have replaced many servers where I have a choice with Linux for that reason and am glad to say I work in a place where we have hundreds of machines with Linux running on the desktop.

I used MS up till 1991 when I got tired of restoring from tape every other day. Went to Unix, haven't looked back.

 

[KarenRei]

Come on.. lets keep this in context and not get carried away. This is just backlog demand for people who have been waiting for many years. Now if they could do this consistently for another 12 months, then I would be terribly impressed.

I was thinking the same thing about the UK, but even with Tesla facing global supply limits, UK November is up QoQ - so who knows. South Korea is a big EV market. It may take quite some time to work through the backlog, and level off at a rather high value.

 

[JRP3]

Anyway, it's ironic that they're targeting stoves. That's one application where NG still makes sense.

I don't buy that for even one instant. Induction is far superior to natural gas. 80% less energy use, instant control, cooler kitchen, safer in a number of ways. There's just no reason for natural gas in the kitchen.

Correct, plus the health issues from gas fumes, and of course the occasional explosions.

some of us use round bottomed woks, flame is best for those

I can think of an easy solution...

 

[KarenRei]

And Bill Gates hurt small computer builders in the USA. The licensing costs and system gave builders like Dell and Gateway a huge advantage over small white box builders in the early 2000’s and later. I have no love for Gates and Microsoft either. Even today Microsoft drives us away from their product for no reason with absolutely weird penalties for virtualization. I have replaced many servers where I have a choice with Linux for that reason and am glad to say I work in a place where we have hundreds of machines with Linux running on the desktop.

Seems weird that in this day in age many people seem unaware that Linux exists. My entire department is Linux based. The company uses a company-wide firewall that blocks a ton of sites. One of those sites was openoffice.org, under the category "shareware and freeware". A coworker mailed them, trying to get them to unblock the site. The person responded that they'll forward the request up the chain, but asked them to justify their usage of OpenOffice over Microsoft Office. *facepalm*

I recommended that he type "rpm -qa" and send them permission requests for every single app in the list, so that they get it through their heads that Linux exists and is critical to our work.

 

[jerry33]

Seems weird that in this day in age many people seem unaware that Linux exists. My entire department is Linux based. The company uses a company-wide firewall that blocks a ton of sites. One of those sites was openoffice.org, under the category "shareware and freeware". A coworker mailed them, trying to get them to unblock the site. The person responded that they'll forward the request up the chain, but asked them to justify their usage of OpenOffice over Microsoft Office. *facepalm*

I recommended that he type "rpm -qa" and send them permission requests for every single app in the list, so that they get it through their heads that Linux exists and is critical to our work.

This kind of thinking is common once you get above the direct supervisor level--if you're lucky the second level up knows at least what the service you're running is called. One time we had a large server break down and it's replacement fell off the truck so there was an extended outage (the software used made that computer a single point of failure and it wasn't in a data centre that we had control over but we were supporting it when things broke). The three levels up manager in charge asked if he could go down to Fry's (a retail computer store, for those that don't know) and pick up a computer. Very few companies have anything like an Elon who actually knows things. Most just know about how to manipulate this quarter's financials to give them the best take-home, everything else is just a widget.

 

[ggr]

Tesla is starting to charge $10/month for its Premium Connectivity package. Also now available for SR+ owners (but still no 1 year free trial for new SR+ orders).

Via: @InSpaceXItrust

Connectivity

"If you purchased your Tesla on or after July 1, 2018 and have an expected Premium Connectivity trial end date on or before December 31, 2019, you will maintain Premium Connectivity until returning to Standard Connectivity on January 1, 2020.

All deliveries of Model 3 Standard Range and Standard Range Plus on or before December 31, 2019 will receive a 30-day complimentary Premium Connectivity trial."

Generally I don't like these pay-per-month addons. I guess my opinion was tainted by Verizon back in the '90s when they wanted to charge extra for security features for cellphones, which caused almost zero deployment of the existing airlink encryption and anti-cloning features. Anyway. This reminded me that I'd heard that GM's Onstar also has very low take rate.
GM’s OnStar Overhauls Subscription Plans, Raises Prices

Note that most of the features they tout are already standard in Teslas (not mentioned in the screenshot above), or irrelevant ("30 minutes/month of hands-free calling!") for the low price of $34.99/month. Although if you search further you find much cheaper deals are available, coupons galore, promotions, and so on. Only a few months ago, GM reduced the initial free subscription to only one month, same as Tesla's teaser. The only articles I could find that hinted at telling me the renewal rate were paywalled. GM's annual report doesn't say anything about it.

Aha! GM's annual report says that Onstar services about 7 million customers. They delivered 3,002,000 vehicles in the US last year, all of which would have had free Onstar. (Note: doesn't include Canada, which also offers Onstar, I don't think it's available elsewhere.) So it seems like most people don't renew. I also found lots of articles critical of it, particularly people continuing to be charged, having trouble cancelling, and so on, but we all know that's reporting bias.

 

[PeterJA]

[Bill Gates] and Microsoft's terrible, terrible product quality is the reason why IT has such a terrible image and why people in general expect IT to malfunction and that power-cycling devices to see if they then work is a practice deemed normal.

Interesting argument, which is relevant to Tesla. Some folks I know are afraid to drive a "computer on wheels" or allow a computer to drive their car because they expect computers to break down.

Come to think of it, so do I. After the trauma of using Windows ME, I vowed to never buy another Windows computer, and never have. But it never occurred to me before that the need to power-cycle devices is just bad design, rather than something inherent in microchips.

Maybe Tesla can change this public expectation (while they're changing others such as "batteries are for golf carts"). Many computerized devices, including Tesla cars, still follow Microsoft's low standard of requiring manual restarts. But why can't a device be programmed to power-cycle itself, or do whatever power-cycling does, automatically to maintain reliability?

If anyone at Tesla reads this forum, please add this idea to your list, if it's not already there.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I think having a premium Tesla subscription service is great. Imagine in a few years if there are 1 million subscribers to this service and Tesla is pulling in an extra $10M/mo. It will be inevitable that they introduce even more services that current owners who have premium service for free will want to pay for.

It has been great getting all the services for free, but I didn't expect that to last.

 

[jerry33]

Interesting argument, which is relevant to Tesla. Some folks I know are afraid to drive a "computer on wheels" or allow a computer to drive their car because they expect computers to break down.

All cars these days are computers on wheels. Some have as many as thirty or more ECUs, which mostly have to be coordinated.

 

[Off Shore]

Seems weird that in this day in age many people seem unaware that Linux exists. My entire department is Linux based. The company uses a company-wide firewall that blocks a ton of sites. One of those sites was openoffice.org, under the category "shareware and freeware". A coworker mailed them, trying to get them to unblock the site. The person responded that they'll forward the request up the chain, but asked them to justify their usage of OpenOffice over Microsoft Office. *facepalm*

I recommended that he type "rpm -qa" and send them permission requests for every single app in the list, so that they get it through their heads that Linux exists and is critical to our work.

Redhat drools, Debian rules! (OT enough?)

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

I don't buy that for even one instant. Induction is far superior to natural gas. 80% less energy use, instant control, cooler kitchen, safer in a number of ways. There's just no reason for natural gas in the kitchen.

I have an induction cooktop. Here's what won't work on induction that works with flame:
- round-bottom woks
- claypots (although substituting with a dutch oven can cover 90% of the uses)
- lightweight aluminium cookware (induction-capable non-stick cookware are HEAVY)
- raw cast iron cookware (not because the induction won't work, but because the cookware will scratch the surface of your cooktop!)
- making s-mores.

Fortunately, I have an outdoor burner for those non-induction use cases. Open flames and outdoors appeals to our base instincts.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

So not only is Tesla an automotive and energy company, it is now also a services company. Any analyst that lumps Tesla in with other automakers is like lumping Apple in with companies that make PC clones

 

[TheGrimSweeper]

GMs 4G lte plan costs 20$ a month - double Tesla and there is no youtube, Netflix, Spotify, Hulu, web browser etc.

 

[defc0n]

I used MS up till 1991 when I got tired of restoring from tape every other day. Went to Unix, haven't looked back.

Microsoft supports the Linux subsystem now, which I never thought I’d ever see something like that from them. Wish they would just ditch the NT kernel and use Linux instead, but don’t think that will happen. It’d give me a reason to try using a Microsoft workstation again. Apple, although I’ve mostly enjoyed them, has its warts.

 

[jerry33]

I have an induction cooktop. Here's what won't work on induction that works with flame:
- round-bottom woks
- claypots (although substituting with a dutch oven can cover 90% of the uses)
- lightweight aluminium cookware (induction-capable non-stick cookware are HEAVY)
- raw cast iron cookware (not because the induction won't work, but because the cookware will scratch the surface of your cooktop!)
- making s-mores.

Fortunately, I have an outdoor burner for those non-induction use cases. Open flames and outdoors appeals to our base instincts.

I have one too.
- Don't care about round bottom woks. Yes, those won't work.
- Claypots work fine in the wall oven.
- Lightweight aluminum cookware generally have toxic non-stick coatings on them (when heated). No thanks.
- Fissler SS cookware isn't that heavy and the thick bottoms really heat evenly. Cleanup is a breeze.
- I have lots of cast iron, and scratching isn't an issue. (Any cookware can scratch)
- I'll have to try to make smores (never had any interest in smores). I'd guess the broiler (the one I have is really just short of a real salamander) will work just spiffy. It works great for roasting veggies.

 

[Skryll]

I'm also wondering... what's Tesla doing with existing SCv2 cabinets when they're replaced with SCv3?

I sure hope they are expanding and not replacing.. ultra fast charging is harder on the battery and less convenient if you had planned to have a 45 minute to show hour meal at the restaurant next door. Who wants to get up and move the car after 20 minutes.[/QUOTE]