Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SteveG3]

not to be a negative Nancy but I didn’t really see any chance of this making it past both the senate and trump ?

I had concerns about that too, but, bear in mind the current program at this point is on the cusp of passing on US federal tax revenue to help the sales of all automakers based outside the US, to the exclusion of 2 of 3 US based automakers (or, conservatively, the exclusion of 2 of 4 US automakers if you include Fiat Chrysler as a US automaker in the context of what these politicians may be thinking).

 

[Fact Checking]

My cybertruck RN# post was deleted by a mod? And the reply by another to calculate estimated # of orders?? Interesting.

Goodbye forever, folks. Been fun.

Cybertruck reservation numbers are IMO far more important to TSLA's short term sentiment than 90% of the other weekend topics discussed here - given the ~10% drop TSLA suffered due to the initial negative reception the Cybertuck received. Cybertuck shouldn't matter to short term valuation due to it being ~2 years out - yet it clearly matters in practice.

I really think the irreversible deletion of useful data is heavy handed. I'll attempt to recover your data: your pre-order was 420k reservation numbers higher than the first known RN, but there's an about 30k reservations gap due to cancellations, which would put the current number of Cybertuck preorders at around ~390k.

Elon tweeting about 400,000 Cybertuck preorders next week would certainly be a boost to TSLA.

 

[Freder Reeve]

My cybertruck RN# post was deleted by a mod? And the reply by another to calculate estimated # of orders?? Interesting.

didn't u get the memo, this is the seatbelts and politics forum

 

[Davidzhao365]

Is there a Tesla production rate tracker somewhere? Like change of the weekly rate over time. Thanks

 

[madodel]

Flying through the windshield is a lot better than getting half way through.

(What's worse than a worm in your apple? Half a worm. )

I don't think the flying part is the problem. It's the landing part. 35-40 years ago when I worked as a critical care nurse I saw enough of the survivors of car accidents to convince me that a seat belt is a good idea. BDOV (Brain Dead on a Ventilator) isn't much of a life. Actually just seeing one was enough. But maybe I just missed all the ones that got up and walked away after flying through the windshield. Sometimes people just have to see to believe.

 

[JRP3]

Very impressive. Was there a video of this feat? Do you do other motorcycle stunts as well?

Most of my stunts took place before the age of smart phones, which is probably a good thing over all. My most recent involved flipping my avatar over backwards in top of me, alone in the woods so no cameras to catch the action.

JRP, is that you?

QUOTE
I think he has me beat by landing on a moving target, though the speed differential was low.

 

[Fact Checking]

I don't think the flying part is the problem. It's the landing part. 35-40 years ago when I worked as a critical care nurse I saw enough of the survivors of car accidents to convince me that a seat belt is a good idea. BDOV (Brain Dead on a Ventilator) isn't much of a life. Actually just seeing one was enough. But maybe I just missed all the ones that got up and walked away after flying through the windshield. Sometimes people just have to see to believe.

While flying out of a car is bad enough, in rollovers it's also common for people without seatbelts to slide half out of the car while the car rolls over them. These victims wouldn't get to you either ...

 

[SteveG3]

Electrek - 2 hours ago: https://ww.electrek.co/2019/12/15/t...ongress-is-looking-at-renewing-ev-tax-credit/

Below is what I have most recently written to those who represent me in Congress. Others may want to do the same.
__________

Please change the wording in the bill that proposes an expansion of Electric Vehicle (EV) tax credits. The bill could be greatly improved by providing a universal SUNSET date, or a quota for the TOTAL number of new EVs delivered in the US, rather than the currently proposed production limit per manufacturer.

The individual production limit for each manufacturer punishes the risk-taking American innovators that were first to make EVs, while giving the latecomers (including foreigners) reason to dawdle even longer.

The tax credit goes to car buyers, not the manufacturers, so it makes no sense to relate the tax credit to individual production quotas for each company. Consumers should not be forced to choose an EV based on which particular brands still qualify for tax credits.

In any event, please see that the EV tax credit expansion bill is passed in some shape or form. But do not include hybrid vehicles, which would defeat the purpose. Our prospects for a future with clean air and a non-harmful climate are depending on you.

EDIT: Alas, looks like Tom did not have this correct.


earlier today, Tom Randall tweeted,

Tom Randall on Twitter

I have not directly verified this myself, nor have I seen this assertion mentioned anywhere else (other than with a reference to Tom's comment). That said, Tom is generally fair and quite accurate.

 

[scaesare]

LOL ppl are still driving unbelted? I don't get it. It's 2019. Do we still think it looks cooler? Or is there some other reason.

Makes it easier to reach over and grab the cigarette lighter to pass through the back window so the folks riding in the bed of your truck can light up...

 

[Beltsbear]

How about no seat belts on school buses. How is this justified?

Belts are in almost all new buses. The injury rates on school buses are low, but belts of course help.

 

[willow_hiller]

Trying to read through the text of the GREEN Act now @KarenRei and despite all the wishful thinking I can conjure I agree with your assessment that it is not retroactive.

If everything indented underneath section (1) on page 51 only modifies "new qualified electric plug-in motor vehicles sold after the date of the enactment" then the new transition and phase out periods are just for counting purposes.

Hopefully this is clarified in later versions of the bill!

 

[Beltsbear]

My cybertruck RN# post was deleted by a mod? And the reply by another to calculate estimated # of orders?? Interesting.

Goodbye forever, folks. Been fun.

I agree that your post should not be deleted. Mods are having trouble controlling this thread and all of the off topic posts. But actual res numbers are genuinely helpful in determining demand and future Tesla growth and unlike cybertruck banter should be kept.

 

[BenPrice]

On tracking RNs:

The gap between people counting RN numbers and Elon tweeting may have a simple explanation:

Is it possible that an RN number is any non-China Tesla vehicle order?

At 500,000 per year the average daily rate would be less than 2,000 orders per day.

If true, future cybertruck datapoints could help predict demand.

 

[riverFox]

There is a dedicated/stickied thread for Cybertruck discussion.

 

[SteveG3]

earlier today, Tom Randall tweeted,

View attachment 488653

Tom Randall on Twitter

I have not directly verified this myself, nor have I seen this assertion mentioned anywhere else (other than with a reference to Tom's comment). That said, Tom is generally fair and quite accurate.

Trying to read through the text of the GREEN Act now @KarenRei and despite all the wishful thinking I can conjure I agree with your assessment that it is not retroactive.

If everything indented underneath section (1) on page 51 only modifies "new qualified electric plug-in motor vehicles sold after the date of the enactment" then the new transition and phase out periods are just for counting purposes.

Hopefully this is clarified in later versions of the bill!

glancing to the link willow hiller included above,

I think Tom got the sunset idea from paragraph (f) TERMINATION on page 58. Unfortunately, if so, I think this sunset only applies to used EVs, though, I'm not very confident that I'm reading the document correctly.

Note:

1. this would mean tax credits would end at the end of 2024, not the end of 2023,

2. this paragraph was at the very end of the discussion of vehicles. the discussion had several parts... new conventional EVs, used conventional EVs, 3 wheelers, ... I'm trying to decipher whether that TERMINATION paragraph applies to only an irrelevant subsection, or includes new 4 wheel EVs. Perhaps some of you more familiar with legal docs can have a look at this too.

 

[scaesare]

Tesla does own the solar systems that they rent.

Good grief!!

Tesla owns entire Solar Systems now??

 

[JustMe]

Makes it easier to reach over and grab the cigarette lighter to pass through the back window so the folks riding in the bed of your truck can light up...

Good point. Makes me think the Cybertruck “vault” will be kind of cozy compared with a rusted out Silverado with a leaky exhaust pipe. Especially with its integrated espresso machine and Netflix streaming...

 

[SteveG3]

glancing to the link willow hiller included above,

I think Tom got the sunset idea from paragraph (f) TERMINATION on page 58. Unfortunately, if so, I think this sunset only applies to used EVs, though, I'm not very confident that I'm reading the document correctly.

View attachment 488666

Note:

1. this would mean tax credits would end at the end of 2024, not the end of 2023,

2. this paragraph was at the very end of the discussion of vehicles. the discussion had several parts... new conventional EVs, used conventional EVs, 3 wheelers, ... I'm trying to decipher whether that TERMINATION paragraph applies to only an irrelevant subsection, or includes new 4 wheel EVs. Perhaps some of you more familiar with legal docs can have a look at this too.

aargh, Tom just responded to a tweet asking about this question of a "sunset" with,

 

[MXWing]

The new ev tax credit, is it active immediately if passed?

Every inventory car would be gone instantly.

 

[ammulder]

The new ev tax credit, is it active immediately if passed?

Every inventory car would be gone instantly.

Heh. Which inventory cars would those be?