Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cosmacelf]

Good grief!!

Tesla owns entire Solar Systems now??

Wow, I think Elon is taking this vertical integration thing a tad too far.

 

[HG Wells]

Heh. Which inventory cars would those be?

The remaining EIGHT used ones. Since it covers used EV's

 

[smalltownguy]

Heh. Which inventory cars would those be?

That's my theory about very low inventory levels. Tesla knows once the news of this bill possibly passing, sales will stop in the USA until it does become law. So no dead inventory. Replenish once law is passed.

 

[ammulder]

That's my theory about very low inventory levels. Tesla knows once the news of this bill possibly passing, sales will stop in the USA until it does become law. So no dead inventory. Replenish once law is passed.

The thing is, it looks like a standalone bill, not something rolled into a larger budget or appropriations bill or whatever. So the chances of passage don't seem that great.

My theory on low inventory is why carry inventory when you can just ship the car to a market where it will be delivered immediately?

 

[StealthP3D]

Tomorrow starts the last full week of trading before release of production numbers.

If you haven’t covered your short position already, this would be a good time to do so.

Last quarter (Q3) the stock initially fell on release of the production and delivery numbers. Then we got a nice ~$15 bump over the next couple of weeks (where it settled in around $255) until the financials were released. At that point, it gapped up ~$40 and continued to climb to $360.

How it plays out this quarter is anybody's guess.

 

[TNEVol]

Makes it easier to reach over and grab the cigarette lighter to pass through the back window so the folks riding in the bed of your truck can light up...

I had a police officer tell me he could get to his weapon easier. I have no idea but he was injured when thrown from his car in an accident.

 

[mongo]

That's my theory about very low inventory levels. Tesla knows once the news of this bill possibly passing, sales will stop in the USA until it does become law. So no dead inventory. Replenish once law is passed.

Bill states credit is retroactive through transition period with a $500 reduction.
Edit: Not worth $500 to wait to get a Tesla.
The credit is the same retroactively, no reason to not buy.
0-200k vehicles: full credit. 200k-600k (ignoring sales post 200k pre passage of new bill), credit - $500, then the 2nd quarter after hitting 609k, 50% for a quarter, then no more credit

 

[MissAutobahn]

The new incentives will give $tsla and sales a bump for sure as I also doubt that other carmakers are capable to produce/sell 600.000 EVs in the US until the end of 2023.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

I'm not sure if this has been discussed (my apologies if so), but the new EV bill, with the way it is written - expanding the credits from 200k to 600k per manufacturer, would the cars Tesla has sold in the U.S. in the that were eligible for the $3750 or $1875 rebate, count toward the 600k?

If so, the bill will almost destroy Tesla.

 

[MXWing]

Bill states credit is retroactive through transition period with a $500 reduction.
Edit: Not worth $500 to wait to get a Tesla.
The credit is the same retroactively, no reason to not buy.
0-200k vehicles: full credit. 200k-600k (ignoring sales post 200k pre passage of new bill), credit - $500, then the 2nd quarter after hitting 609k, 50% for a quarter, then no more credit

So someone who took delivery of a 35K 3SR earlier in year would get a 7000 credit versus 1875-3750?

That’s a huge windfall for purchasers in 2019.

What’s the odds of this actually passing? 50 percent? 25 percent?

 

[Steve m]

"Half of the top list are bulls mocking Qs, seriously what are you guys doing there?"

Why mocking Qs.... What did you think we were doing?

 

[ZsoZso]

Good grief!!

Tesla owns entire Solar Systems now??

psssst, quiet now! if TSLAQ learns of this they will freak out, we'll never hear the end of it.

 

[Off Shore]

So someone who took delivery of a 35K 3SR earlier in year would get a 7000 credit versus 1875-3750?

That’s a huge windfall for purchasers in 2019.

What’s the odds of this actually passing? 50 percent? 25 percent?

Zero. Looked at Mitch McConnell's desk lately? The rotting corpses of dozens of bills from the House are there. This will be one more.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

I'm not sure if this has been discussed (my apologies if so), but the new EV bill, with the way it is written - expanding the credits from 200k to 600k per manufacturer, would the cars Tesla has sold in the U.S. in the that were eligible for the $3750 or $1875 rebate, count toward the 600k?

If so, the bill will almost destroy Tesla.

And could anticipation of the bill passing be the reason Tesla is selling a ton of cars in Europe and the price of the Model 3 has been raised twice in the last 3 months? In reality, Tesla can sell their cars for more when the tax credit is higher (and why the price of all models fell as the tax credit was reduced). If the bill counts the cars sold that were eligible for the reduced credit, then Tesla missed out on a TON of revenue.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

I'm not sure if this has been discussed (my apologies if so), but the new EV bill, with the way it is written - expanding the credits from 200k to 600k per manufacturer, would the cars Tesla has sold in the U.S. in the that were eligible for the $3750 or $1875 rebate, count toward the 600k?

If so, the bill will almost destroy Tesla.

Fred says no:

"The EVs Tesla and GM sold in 2019 that only qualified for reduced partial credits wouldn’t count towards the new 600,000 threshold;"

 

[Beltsbear]

I'm not sure if this has been discussed (my apologies if so), but the new EV bill, with the way it is written - expanding the credits from 200k to 600k per manufacturer, would the cars Tesla has sold in the U.S. in the that were eligible for the $3750 or $1875 rebate, count toward the 600k?

If so, the bill will almost destroy Tesla.

No. People who bought with partial credits do not count into the 600k number. The clock starts at 200k when the bill passes with US vehicles 200k-600k getting the new $7000 credit. So maybe two years or sales at $7000. It would certainly increase sales of the S/3/X/Y cars for that period, selling every 3/Y car that can be made and more S/X as well, probably to the limit of available batteries.

Of course anticipation of the bill could reduce sales.

 

[Off Shore]

No. People who bought with partial credits do not count into the 600k number. The clock starts at 200k when the bill passes with US vehicles 200k-600k getting the new $7000 credit. So maybe two years or sales at $7000. It would certainly increase sales of the S/3/X/Y cars for that period, selling every 3/Y car that can be made and more S/X as well, probably to the limit of available batteries.

Of course anticipation of the bill could reduce sales.

Tesla's selling all the cars they can make. Remember?

 

[Rashomon]

While flying out of a car is bad enough, in rollovers it's also common for people without seatbelts to slide half out of the car while the car rolls over them. These victims wouldn't get to you either ...

Yes, which is why curtain airbags are in almost all SUVs and most cars these days — they stay inflated long enough to keep limbs in vehicle during rollovers. While there are a few outlier events where not wearing seatbelts turned out well, it’s like counting on drawing a straight flush in poker. It happens, but you’re incredibly stupid counting on it.

 

[dc_h]

Elon stated that Tesla Energy is becoming a distributed global utility.

Does anyone know what that means? Their current plan seems to be just to sell stuff to the energy providers and energy consumers, and that does not qualify as being a utility company, which owns/operates/or is responsible for energy generation and distribution.

I can get my head around Tesla beginning to own their own energy generation (although they currently do not), but I don’t see how they can handle the distribution aspect. Can they purchase bandwidth on the power lines, make their own power lines, replace the need for power lines altogether?

I’m very confused. Is Elon being hyperbolic or are there moves going on behind the scenes to completely replace local utility companies with Tesla utility service?

Maybe already answers but here’s my take: Tesla batteries and solar ties back to a common cloud application service. As the batteries expand, they will be able to work together to improve the grid. Add home Tesla packs, like S Australia, where thousands of home systems kept the grid up when a coal plant went down. Tie those home systems to a utility scale gigawatt battery and you have layers of stabilizing systems working together. It will lower prices for electricity and create a far more stable grid. The situation is California with PG&E would be solved by distributed batteries, allowing power lines to shut down during high winds, or replaced by distributing wind solar and batteries closer to consumers.

 

[scaesare]

Tesla's selling all the cars they can make. Remember?

My thought too... But then wondered if they could restart that third shift they stopped on the S/X line... Enough batteries?