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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Maybe already answers but here’s my take: Tesla batteries and solar ties back to a common cloud application service. As the batteries expand, they will be able to work together to improve the grid. Add home Tesla packs, like S Australia, where thousands of home systems kept the grid up when a coal plant went down. Tie those home systems to a utility scale gigawatt battery and you have layers of stabilizing systems working together. It will lower prices for electricity and create a far more stable grid. The situation is California with PG&E would be solved by distributed batteries, allowing power lines to shut down during high winds, or replaced by distributing wind solar and batteries closer to consumers.
For California distributed solar and storage does seem to be the plan. But like putting solar on the North side of hills, wind turbines should be where the wind is.

"replace north with south if you are well below the equator"
 
Tesla's selling all the cars they can make. Remember?
Today yes for the 3 only. $1800 credit goes away in Q1. And when the Y starts shipping, the demand for the 3 MAY drop from that as well. I think Tesla is safe though even without the credit changes. The US demand for the 3 won't stop, but it could go down 25%. With this new credit it would be max production on the 3 line without question. And it could be more profitable trims as well which would be huge for the bottom line.
 
Looking toward the end of the year with an academic question (I'm loooong, no more buys or sells of TSLA for me in 2019).
I'm thinking we can anticipate another climb this week followed by profit-taking and shortie shenanigans in the following 2 holiday weeks. That seems to be the pattern... What do you think in the near term?

We will likely be green for the year at tomorrow's open.
 
Tesla's selling all the cars they can make. Remember?

Yup.

Not only is this bill unlikely to increase Teslas sold due to the terms of the proposed extension, it is likely to slow down the ramp up of EVs by other automakers.

Tesla sells 50k+ S3X in the US per quarter and it seems they are looking to get the Y to about 1k per week by mid 2020. I suspect the Y will ramp to 5k per week by about the start of 2021. From all this, I'd estimate Tesla will run through its additional 400k vehicles by mid 2021, and then phase out to no credits for the start of 2022.

The coming EVs closest to matching the value of a Tesla are the Mach E, and the Polestar 2 (Volvo). With the tax credit for the Ford, but, not for a Model Y, the Mach E is in the ballpark, value-wise, of a Model Y, ignoring the SuperCharger network. To my view the Volvo is the next closest to competing on value.

If you're Ford or Volvo, and that $7.5k tax credit advantage vs. Tesla was what was going to get you within the realm of offering competitive value, why wouldn't you delay offering your car in the US until 2022 if that $7.5k advantage gets legislated away? Why introduce your car at the end of 2020 to tepid interest when its clearly less compelling than a Y, rather then wait until 2022, when that $7.5k advantage can greatly help you get the halo effect of selling out your first real EV offering?

For automakers further off the value mark to a Tesla, that's all the more reason to delay until the $7.5k value head start vs. Tesla returns circa 2022.

This change does not look like it will sell anymore Teslas, and quite likely will slow down the introduction of EVs to the US market from the rest of the automakers.
 
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The EV bill presents an interesting delima to someone about to take delivery of a Tesla in the next two weeks. Do they take delivery and guarantee the current credit which expires at the end of the quarter, or cancel delivery in the hope of getting a $7,000 credit in January, knowing that if it doesn't pass, then they just lost the expiring credit.... One in the hand, vs two in the bush.... :confused:
 
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The EV bill presents an interesting delima to someone about to take delivery of a Tesla in the next two weeks. Do they take delivery and guarantee the current credit which expires at the end of the quarter, or cancel delivery in the hope of getting a $7,000 credit in January, knowing that if it doesn't pass, then they just lost the expiring credit.... One in the hand, vs two in the bush.... :confused:

I think this is all cleared up one way or the other as of the 20th.

I suspect Tesla gets higher than usual requests to reschedule delivery dates for the next several days.
 
The EV bill presents an interesting delima to someone about to take delivery of a Tesla in the next two weeks. Do they take delivery and guarantee the current credit which expires at the end of the quarter, or cancel delivery in the hope of getting a $7,000 credit in January, knowing that if it doesn't pass, then they just lost the expiring credit.... One in the hand, vs two in the bush.... :confused:

Tesla If wise would just raise the price by 5000 and include fsd for free.

Or some other manipulation to split any windfalls.
 
If you're Ford or Volvo, and that $7.5k tax credit advantage vs. Tesla was what was going to get you within the realm of offering competitive value, why wouldn't you delay offering your car in the US until 2022 if that $7.5k advantage gets legislated away? Why introduce your car at the end of 2020 to tepid interest when its clearly less compelling than a Y, rather then wait until 2022, when that $7.5k advantage can greatly help you get the halo effect of selling out your first real EV offering?
That's why its a bad bill.

The correct way to do this would be X number of total EVs - irrespective of the manufacturer. In no other incentive do we have a manufacturer limit - why only in cars ?

Anyway - as a separate bill not sure how this will ever get past the Senate & Trump. As a part of the budget/CR deal - possible.
 
That's why its a bad bill.

The correct way to do this would be X number of total EVs - irrespective of the manufacturer. In no other incentive do we have a manufacturer limit - why only in cars ?

Anyway - as a separate bill not sure how this will ever get past the Senate & Trump. As a part of the budget/CR deal - possible.

Perhaps it has Republican interest by selling it as “we’re gonna make sure we don’t help foreign automakers have an advantage over US automakers,” which for the next two years or so it would do... until it reverts to doing precisely the opposite and basically 3X as much as not making any changes would do.
 
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Looking toward the end of the year with an academic question (I'm loooong, no more buys or sells of TSLA for me in 2019).
I'm thinking we can anticipate another climb this week followed by profit-taking and shortie shenanigans in the following 2 holiday weeks. That seems to be the pattern... What do you think in the near term?

We will likely be green for the year at tomorrow's open.

In the near-term, ie. next week, I expect a nice amount of buying pressure overall but not without a day or two of head fakes thrown in for good measure.

As we approach the end of the year (and release of production/delivery numbers) I expect buying pressure to accelerate. Funds will be doing their end of the year "window dressing". After a run like Tesla has had, it looks good for it to show up on their end of year statements.
 
The etron with all its inferior tech is $74k? I think the Model Y is going to crush etron, Jaguar and EQC in its first year of debut:

Why You Should Care About the Audi E-Tron

Model Y is $39,900, right? Buyers would have to be crazy to spend $74k on a car with no over the air updates, loaded with bugs, and inferior batteries.

Judging from Audi’s poor start in the EV race, I believe deposits for the Model Y is also the reason contributing to Audi’s poor sales numbers. Model Y may also be the reason Mercedes EQC are delayed in the US, the EQC may be DOA once Model Y hits market next year.

2021 Mercedes-Benz EQC Prices, Reviews, and Pictures | Edmunds

EQC is $68k. Both Audi and Benz are priced way too high in comparison to the proven Tesla brand and the up and coming Model Y, which starts at $39,900.

Here’s the breakdown on range:

Mercedes EQC 200 miles $68k

Mercedes-Benz’s electric SUV will start at $67,900

Audi Etron 204 miles $74k

Audi e-tron | The first purely electric SUV from Audi | Audi USA

Jaguar iPace 234 miles $69,500

2019 Jaguar I-Pace electric car range: Why the short circuit?

All three incumbents use batteries rated as 90kwh or above, falling significantly short of tesla’s 70kwh battery pack rated to be around 230 miles of range.

No wonder buyers aren’t rushing to the dealerships, they’re all waiting on Model Y!
 
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The etron with all its inferior tech is $74k? I think the Model Y is going to crush etron, Jaguar and EQC in its first year of debut:

Why You Should Care About the Audi E-Tron

Model Y is $39,900, right? Buyers would have to be crazy to spend $74k on a car with no over the air updates, loaded with bugs, and inferior batteries.
Well, some people just love them circles.
 
That's why its a bad bill.

The correct way to do this would be X number of total EVs - irrespective of the manufacturer. In no other incentive do we have a manufacturer limit - why only in cars ?

Anyway - as a separate bill not sure how this will ever get past the Senate & Trump. As a part of the budget/CR deal - possible.
Does it include hybrids too?
 
特拉风T☰SLA mania on Twitter

⚠️Breaking⚠️



Some MIC Model 3 customers just got updates that delivery staff will contact them in a week about things like:



- home charging installation

- vehicle registration

- trade in (if needed)

- financing (if needed)

- insurance (if needed)

- payment

- delivery date
 
I agree that your post should not be deleted. Mods are having trouble controlling this thread and all of the off topic posts. But actual res numbers are genuinely helpful in determining demand and future Tesla growth and unlike cybertruck banter should be kept.
Mod: there is a thread for that. I have copied his RN over to it. --ggr.
 
This is a short article about weakening EV sales in the US. I thought it was interesting to see a bit more on the perspective of traditional OEMs.

Affordability hurts EV sales outlook

One thing mentioned in passing was an idea to let EV owners occasionally swap their car for an ICE SUV for travel off the beaten track. I’m not sure what to make of that.