Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[neezer]

"catching up" is only a intellectually disingenuous short/media narrative

What Rivian has had going for it, is that they look like the most promising of the EV startups (now less clearly so with the Cybrtruck revealed).

Startup EV makers have the advantage of avoiding the ICE incumbent issue of taking their profitable ICE business from a cash generator to a money pit right when they need cash to ramp up a new EV business. Startup EV makers can just run straight to EVs at full speed.

so, there have been reasons to find Rivian intriguing, but, framing it as some kind of Tesla replacement on the way, that was just agenda driven misinformation.

Yes, but still, why a decade of R&D yet no product ? I mean heck Tesla isn't even purely focused on vehicles ... and yet look.

 

[Curt Renz]

Dang, $421.45

She just keeps roaring upward. Bye-bye $420 - Hello $421.

 

[Sancho]

All right you slackers! Less than 100 were executed at $420.69. Gotta do better next time!

View attachment 491974

I wasn't able to buy on the nose. I think my price was 420.53. It would be interesting to see how many single shares of TSLA were purchased in the one hour that the SP was first moving through 420 and 420.69 vs how many single shares of TSLA are purchased in other hours.

 

[sparcs]

so, there have been reasons to find Rivian intriguing, but, framing it as some kind of Tesla replacement on the way, that was just agenda driven misinformation.

Rivian's business plan is about making expensive adventure vehicles. Not at all the business model that Tesla has. Tesla had their share of deals with Mercedes and Toyota so I wouldn't even put any value on the deals Rivian has with OEMs. What is the Rivian path to scaling after all this?

It looks like Rivian is competing with whatever ICE competitor there is in the adventure vehicle space. Land Rover?

 

[NicoV]

She just keeps roaring upward. Bye-bye $420 - Hello $421.

Make that 422

 

[Chocochip]

For Kazakhstan the film "Borat" used scenes from rural Romania, so one can really use very little (of anything actually) from that film.

The anthem was definitely real!

 

[JustMe]

Rivian's business plan is about making expensive adventure vehicles. Not at all the business model that Tesla has. Tesla had their share of deals with Mercedes and Toyota so I wouldn't even put any value on the deals Rivian has with OEMs. What is the Rivian path to scaling after all this?

It looks like Rivian is competing with whatever ICE competitor there is in the adventure vehicle space. Land Rover?

Well they do have an order for 100,000 vans from Amazon. That should help. https://www.latimes.com/business/autos/story/2019-09-19/amazon-orders-rivian-electric-vans?_amp=true

 

[StealthP3D]

Hopefully in a few months we'll have this same anticipation for crossing $500

I'm naturally a pretty patient person.

But "a few months"?

 

[EVMeister]

As promised, somebody is now a Supporting Member.

 

[Fact Checking]

First leak of the Early Access FSD preview feature:

View attachment 491799

View attachment 491800​

As some have speculated here, it's a literal preview: it's on-screen rendering of stop signs, traffic lights and road markings.

This means the new, much larger FSD neural nets for HW3 have been activated, although they are not allowed to influence driving yet.

Update: there's credible seeming leaks on Twitter reporting that a select group of Early Access testers has the HW3 City Streets driving code activated:

3rd Row Tesla on Twitter

"So the big surprise this week is this:

Even though only a select few Early Access users will have the code that actually stops the car enabled...

EVERYONE with Hardware 3 gets to see the full self driving visualization."​

 

[Krugerrand]

I'm on the phone with TD Ameritrade. Twice now, I placed a $420 limit order and it went through for just under at market price immediately.
The 2nd one was to make sure it said LIMIT. Anyone else?

Or has it been that long since I sold $TSLA that I forgot how?

Never before has a stock owner/buyer called their trading company to complain the broker got them a share for cheaper than the stock owner wanted to pay for it.

 

[SteveG3]

Yes, but still, why a decade of R&D yet no product ? I mean heck Tesla isn't even purely focused on vehicles ... and yet look.

the other startup EV companies (Lucid, Faraday Future, Detroit Electric, and more), have repeatedly touted vehicles to be released, only to delay, and not release among financial squeezes. Rivian's slow, and until about 2 years ago, stealth development is a better look, especially with those large pocketed funders along as they've come out of stealth mode.

I'm not a Rivian apologist... I don't know how they'll do... but, up until the CybrTruck reveal, their seeming more promising than the rest of the startups made sense to me (I'm not considering Chinese startups which I knew less about).

 

[Thumper]

Battle of 422 Battle of Amphipolis - Wikipedia

 

[CorneliusXX]

Oh completely agree, but people don't wake up randomly with a fundamentally different perception of something without fundamentally new information.

I invested a decent sum between $198 and $190 (on the way down and then on the way up again) so I am WAY happy - this is my best investment since Mastercard and it happened twice as fast. I just think it's interesting no one is even trying to explain it.

Happy Holidays!

There has been new information. Elon managed to forward sell a quarter million glorified triangles. Information like that may not be new but it takes a while to be accepted. There are a few stages to work through first.

 

[CalX]

I restarted my investment account with 15k in TSLA after putting down a deposit for the model x in Jan 2016, thinking I'll use the proceeds towards the car when it gets delivered. Little did I know I would be spending an hour or two a day scouring Tesla news almost 4 years later. Just picked up another share at 420.69 for a total of 465 shares. Congratulations to Tesla fans and shareholders. This has been a great ride.

 

[BenPrice]

Rivian's business plan is about making expensive adventure vehicles. Not at all the business model that Tesla has. Tesla had their share of deals with Mercedes and Toyota so I wouldn't even put any value on the deals Rivian has with OEMs. What is the Rivian path to scaling after all this?

It looks like Rivian is competing with whatever ICE competitor there is in the adventure vehicle space. Land Rover?

Maybe some of the Jeep Wrangler crowd.

Obviously the intense modding group has a lot of love for the Wrangler, but there are a lot of people driving higher ASP versions and don’t give a crap about rock climbing.

 

[mad474]

Will regret this but just placed my first try in day trading: [email protected] (~381 EUR)

 

[StealthP3D]

Oh completely agree, but people don't wake up randomly with a fundamentally different perception of something without fundamentally new information.

It takes a long time for thousands of people to change their minds. Even one individual can take a long time to digest new, conflicting information.

I just think it's interesting no one is even trying to explain it.

People have explained it, maybe you weren't listening or you want an explanation that fits your world view?

 

[EVMeister]

Will regret this but just placed my first try in daytrading: [email protected] (~381 EUR)

Now it will surely blow right past $422.50.

 

[wipster]

This. I wouldn't even say they're 100k new super-bulls/quarter. They're simply people that bought Teslas and largely like them a lot. Sales are not evenly distributed, but there are more and more places outside of CA where it's simply no longer possible to view Tesla as some niche automaker that may or may not be worth looking at. Here in CO my kids and I have a game where on each drive we get points for each Tesla we spot. Sometime earlier this year we crossed the point where we pretty much never end even a short trip with zero points. Teslas are all over the place, and we frequently see several on each trip around town.

The Denver area is a high-concentration Tesla area that's probably one one of the highest outside of CA due to Colorado's generous EV credit, but we're nowhere near CA. With the Q4 push I imagine several other metro areas will be crossing the same threshold I described above. As 2020 moves along, it'll continue to happen in more areas. This is a phenomenon that can't be overstated. It's one thing to hear about Tesla, it's another (very valuable one) to see/speak to a family member or neighbor who has one. It's an entirely different thing to see them everywhere you look. That helps a lot in getting the less early-adopting public to take a serious look at the cars.

I see what you did there.