Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mact3333]

You are confusing me now because I thought the "temporary top" was at $480. But now it's $480-$500? And it might only last a few days? Meaning it could go higher than that before earnings? Or right after earnings?

The truth is, none of us know how it will play out but I don't think the euphoria displayed by some shareholders is indicative of anything except the past and current performance. It has no predictive power. Zero. Yet you appear to be implying it has predictive powers.

Am I misreading your comments or do you actually believe that?

Just watch the 485ish level ok...lol......we will sell off based on no news(iran may be an excuse but not the actual cause)...I appreciate the rah rah guys as much as the next guy hehe...to think we are neighbors jesus....

I could be dead wrong, but I doubt it....we shall see.

You are dead wrong about social behavior and tops...I have correctly played real estate by doing exactly what you say has no predictive value...social euphoria is important to look at...example, when real estate was running rampant in 2005-2006 ...when I saw real estate on front page of Time mag and uSA today and doctors/lawyers started getting into and development, I knew it was a top...and credit default swap mkt showing instability for RE...these same patterns play out over and over again.

Now I am not saying TSLA is there, cause its not...TSLA is only in 2nd-3rd inning right now imho...we have just started the exponential phase and I agree with Cathy Wood's thesis to a large extent.

 

[Chocochip]

Can’t believe the “Third row Tesla” podcast still has not been published.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Tesla PR had asked for the final say of if/when they can publish it. And Elon is saving it for some fireworks show.

From following their Twitter account, it seems the problem is they have 4 hours (!) of video on different cameras and with a number of microphones, and getting all that edited into something coherent (where you have to cut to the video and sound for each different person talking) is very time-consuming. They are also probably aware that this interview will go viral and will attract a large number of views over the next months / years, so it's in their interest to make sure the quality of the final product is high before releasing it.

 

[KarenRei]

Not long time ago there were reasonable TSLAQ authors in Seekingalpha who actually found interesting negative info about Tesla.
Today none of them worth reading. I find that I am here in an echo chamber. I hear only fellow Tesla fanbois. That is bad. as a consequence I have for example widely overestimated the Q4 P&D delivery number. This is dangerous. I want my Mommy!

For what it's worth, Q4 deliveries beat my expectations. More inventory rundown than I thought possible, and better S/X numbers.

I think people who try to estimate deliveries by estimating "demand" tend to yield results that are either far too bullish or far too bearish. I care more about production and disruptions / delivery smoothness.

 

[Nocturnal]

SpaceX shares only briefly made it to the secondary markets and then only very in small amounts. Nowadays, the company has right of first refusal to buy any shares, resulting in nothing making it to the secondary markets that I am aware of.

Musk Inc. increasingly has a velvet rope for investors. We should all be grateful that the $420 buyout didn't materialize. The velvet rope increasingly benefits those who got into TSLA early.

I'm hoping that Boring Co winds up with some public shares.

 

[ggr]

Not long time ago there were reasonable TSLAQ authors in Seekingalpha who actually found interesting negative info about Tesla.
Today none of them worth reading. I find that I am here in an echo chamber. I hear only fellow Tesla fanbois. That is bad. as a consequence I have for example widely overestimated the Q4 P&D delivery number. This is dangerous. I want my Mommy!

Overestimated? I think the consensus here was less than the reality.

 

[Todd Burch]

We're in holding pattern for Trumpy's address. We will likely see a substantial (several dollar) increase or decrease within the hour depending on what he says.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I love the smell of capitulation in the morning.

 

[Curt Renz]

CNBC - last evening:

 

[Unpilot]

And off she goes!

 

[gerebgraus]

For what it's worth, Q4 deliveries beat my expectations. More inventory rundown than I thought possible, and better S/X numbers.

I think people who try to estimate deliveries by estimating "demand" tend to yield results that are either far too bullish or far too bearish. I care more about production and disruptions / delivery smoothness.

My estimate on the inventory rundown was good. My estimate on production was too high.

 

[ggr]

@KarenRei I think you wrote up an options tutorial that I meant to bookmark and now I can't seem to find it. Have a link handy?

You might be thinking of: Moderators' Choice: Posts of Particular Merit

Worth checking the "Moderator's Choice" thread for things like this.

 

[StealthP3D]

1k orders per store per day seems quite insane. If that was the case wouldn't Elon be breaking ground on GF5 tomorrow?

As @Fact Checking has pointed out, it's probably not 1000 orders per store per day. But I don't think the problem is demand, a company can only responsibly expand so fast. Actual people at Tesla have to make it happen regardless of how many outstanding orders they have.

What's funny is the thesis that Tesla had a demand problem has not been followed up with articles explaining how they got it wrong and what they think it means for Tesla. This is a major omission on the part of the Tesla detractors. One of many.

 

[Pezpunk]

these MMD dingdongs can barely keep the price flat for a couple hours nowadays. haha.

 

[Nocturnal]

As @Fact Checking has pointed out, it's probably not 1000 orders per store per day. But I don't think the problem is demand, a company can only responsibly expand so fast. Actual people at Tesla have to make it happen regardless of how many outstanding orders they have.

What's funny is the thesis that Tesla had a demand problem has not been followed up with articles explaining how they got it wrong and what they think it means for Tesla. This is a major omission on the part of the Tesla detractors. One of many.

This seems to be the norm for those authors.

 

[Rarity]

I'm hoping that Boring Co winds up with some public shares.

Thankfully, it seems Musk now has the whip-hand against any shorts who might gang up against Musk Inc. We may see capitulation soon. But perhaps there is too much scar tissue.

If the company doesn't go public, I guess we will just have to participate in Boring Co through the Tesla cars that pass through the system.

 

[Cohiba]

No aggressive talk from the Orange Clown, we can move higher.

 

[MartinAustin]

TSLA acting much stronger than the general market... $476 appearing to follow the jump when Trump walked out to speak.

 

[gene]

No aggressive talk from the Orange Clown, we can move higher.

I consider this rather agressive. Orange dude, Jeez, stop talking already before you make things worse! A call for negotiation would have been MUCH better rather than doubling down. Oh yeah, and it's all Obama's fault.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I love the smell of capitulation in the morning.
View attachment 497919

How long before he gets on the blocked list?

Dan

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I think the competition such as Taycan has made people (including analysts) realize that EVs are far more complicated than building a car and putting batteries and a motor into it. The other car companies may be great at the former, but they suck at the latter. Tesla used to be great at the latter and not so good at the former, but now they are great at both. That's an impressive combo that I wouldn't bet against. Add in their other technology, especially software, along with infrastructure, and that is even more impressive.