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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I just watched Ghosn's public address. Here are some points I took away (and some rambling points related to Japanese culture):

1) I previously read he was set-up because of him championing the merger with Renault and Nissan... even more certain that this is the case now. He said it was because Nissan executives wanted autonomy and the French gov managed to get an unfair amount of voting rights which bothered Nissan execs.

2) The Japanese justice system is very broken - already knew this to some degree but never paid it too much notice until now.

3) With this Game of Thrones level of backstabbing at Nissan, I doubt they will handle the upcoming revolution in the auto industry... I expect them to fall earlier than others.

4) I'm very curious about whether Nissan will take more of a hit with their SP now (I hope they do) as this story gets coverage. Also curious about whether this will bring any pressure at all to the Japanese legal system (I doubt it will). From talking to people who live there (also lived there myself a bit), the Japanese media are pretty terrible about being objective, fair or even reporting on stories which criticise the system.

5) Ghosn is a very different leader to Musk. Ghosn is a flamboyant talker, extroverted, proud. Initially I found him a bit full of himself. He was much more of a traditional CEO focused on markets, dividends, margins. Musk in contrast is more about engineering, technical developments and highly product focused. Having said that, Ghosn was really ahead of everyone else with the initial EV transition. But with Tesla in the picture, none of the traditional auto companies stand a chance with their outdated business models and tech. Ghosn even got a good head start on Tesla with the Leaf but ultimately fell short. I feel sorry for him in this regards, but ultimately he has contributed significantly to the EV revolution.

6) My final point is about Japanese corporate culture and their culture in general. It is hierarchical, not based on merit. It is chauvinistic - women are second class citizens. Sexual abuse is rampant. There is a culture of shame and coverup. They value conformity over free thinking. People work at the same company for life. Work is all consuming, with after works events kind of considered part of work. These generalisations are slowly changing as the older generations die out, but for now they are still pervasive. To relate this back to Nissan and Tesla, Japanese companies have the advantage of a hard working workforce, but it does not compensate for the lack of free thinking. Also when people stay in the same company for life, those companies become more political internally, and people do not become as skilled from exposure to various companies. The education system in Japan teaches kids rote learning with a strong emphasis on passing exams even at the age of 11. I actually love heaps about Japan - it is the most interesting country I have lived in, but also the most ****ed up. I am interested to see how all the Japanese auto companies fare in the next decade... surely not all of them fail.

7) One final, final thought is that Elon came up against some of this Japanese inflexibility, and old school mentality in Panasonic. In Japan, only the Yakuza smoke weed, so I'm sure the JRP weed smoking went over well there. Silicon Valley culture is diametrically opposed to Japan's rigid, hierarchical culture. Many people might not realise just how insular Japanese culture is too. They live in a bubble mostly separate from the rest of the world. Right now they are mostly pursuing fuel cells or as Elon calls them 'fool cells'. Also Shinzō Abe publicly met Elon and gave him a ride in a Tesla in 2015, but then passed a bunch of incentives for fuel cells. Clearly the Japanese auto industry is a huge part of Japan (employs about 10% of the workforce), and the Japanese government will pass laws to prop it up. I doubt there will be a Tesla factory in Japan like in Germany to pull the industry forward. Japan makes about 10 million cars a year, with half going to the Japanese market. Perhaps they will be able to survive in a fuel cell bubble locally in Japan via protectionism, though I suspect they will realised within a few years that fuel cells are a fool's errand, though it would be a mistake to underestimate Japan's wilful ignorance.
 
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You are dead wrong about social behavior and tops...I have correctly played real estate by doing exactly what you say has no predictive value...social euphoria is important to look at...example, when real estate was running rampant in 2005-2006 ...when I saw real estate on front page of Time mag and uSA today and doctors/lawyers started getting into and development, I knew it was a top...and credit default swap mkt showing instability for RE...these same patterns play out over and over again.

Your mischaracterization of my position on social behaviour is probably because you didn't read my post from yesterday describing it.

In summary, yes, the behavior of a cross-section of society can be used to predict tops. But no, the euphoria of a group of shareholders celebrating recent gains cannot! The difference is the make-up of the population you are observing.

Yesterday you referred to the behavior of the participants of this TSLA investing forum, today you cite the front pages of popular magazines and the behavior of doctors and lawyers in the community entering real estate.

Failing to distinguish between distinctly different populations being observed will result in invalid conclusions.

Now I am not saying TSLA is there, cause its not...TSLA is only in 2nd-3rd inning right now imho...we have just started the exponential phase and I agree with Cathy Wood's thesis to a large extent.

On this, we agree. Please see my post from yesterday on using social behavior to predict tops:

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable
 
From following their Twitter account, it seems the problem is they have 4 hours (!) of video on different cameras and with a number of microphones, and getting all that edited into something coherent (where you have to cut to the video and sound for each different person talking) is very time-consuming. They are also probably aware that this interview will go viral and will attract a large number of views over the next months / years, so it's in their interest to make sure the quality of the final product is high before releasing it.

i thought the problem was they forgot to press record on the cameras?

kidding, of course, in case it’s not obvious :)
 
I like how this thread has gotten numb to new ATH's.
Ha ha. Well I almost dare not mention it since it tempts fate, but $500 seems pretty close this week.

And we have yet to have the Third Row Tesla podcast interview (which I will listen to, even if I don't follow their constant drivel on twitter) and Earnings Report date announcement coming up.
 
I love the smell of capitulation in the morning.
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That thread is highly entertaining. Some blindly saying they will stay the course, some saying they were wrong, but will be right eventually, some saying they are done, some attacking him, some calling this as the top etc.
 
Ghosn was really ahead of everyone else with the initial EV transition. But with Tesla in the picture, none of the traditional auto companies stand a chance with their outdated business models and tech. Ghosn even got a good head start on Tesla with the Leaf but ultimately fell short. I feel sorry for him in this regards, but ultimately he has contributed significantly to the EV revolution.

I remember a scene from "Revenge of the Electric Car" in which Ghosn learned of a planned $50,000 electric vehicle from one of the other major OEMs - don't remember which one. It wasn't Tesla. In any case, when he heard the price, he laughed. "$50,000?? That has nothing to do with the electric car!"

My point here is that Ghosn viewed EVs as an inferior product to ICE that must be sold at a budget price to find a market. That was a major error in judgment and a major reason why Nissan couldn't keep up with Tesla.