Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Curt Renz]

my biggest fear is poor m3 demand that drops in places like the USA and the Netherlands due to lower incentives and seasonality. But there is a possibility that demand keeps strong and new demand from the U.K. keeps the production lines at full power.

Another possible positive is of course early model Y shipments and FSD developments.

Incentives are poor drivers of demand. More typically a person starts car shopping when the current car develops problems or the odometer reading becomes excessive. The US tax credit for Teslas during the 4th quarter was down to a minimal amount. I doubt that a lack of a tax credit will prevent anyone from buying a Tesla, if a Tesla is the top choice. Meanwhile, word-of-mouth can keep demand growing exponentially.

 

[MartinAustin]

My hunch is CNBC will cover TSLA 5 minutes before the close, so as to reduce the ability of people to react to the news (if there are people who haven't been tracking it!) ...but reduce the accusations that they didn't give TSLA any coverage.

They did give all-time-high coverage to other stocks earlier today like Google and Lowe's. Mysteriously, Tesla scraping on the door of a $90billion market cap was just not newsworthy enough I guess...

UPDATE I was right. They gave Tesla 7 seconds of coverage, literally 30 seconds before the close of business.

 

[jerry33]

I'm not really into flag-waving, but that seems to me to be a much better line to run with for an American audience.

Problem is that it's the advertisers that are paying the money, not the audience, so if they don't want to lose advertising dollars, they have to say what the advertisers (and their upper management) want them to say. Of course doing this makes them more and more irrelevant.

 

[humbaba]

Buyers anticipating another margin-called step up tomorrow getting back in...

Daily volume has already passed triple average -- and we still don't have the closing minute in

 

[wipster]

Apologies to John Fogerty:

I see Tesla stock price a risin'
I think 500 is on the way
I hear shorts and cynics cryin'
I see bulls a runnin' today

Don't sell your stock tonight
'Cause the future's lookin' bright
Tesla stock is on the rise

 

[Artful Dodger]

This. Everybody was looking at the design, but those specs at those prices screamed "New battery tech" to me.

Tesla Director of Investor Relations Martin Viecha told analysts from Deutschebank that Cybertruck uses existing battery modules. It was discussed shortly after the conference, which was a couple weeks after the CT reveal.

TL;dr Don't expect Cybertruck to debut new bty tech.

 

[humbaba]

Problem is that it's the advertisers that are paying the money, not the audience, so if they don't want to lose advertising dollars, they have to say what the advertisers (and their upper management) want them to say. Of course doing this makes them more and more irrelevant.

I get that, but I don't see how what I wrote makes their advertisers look bad. It puts the focus on Tesla, who isn't paying them money, true that. And it may be as simple as that.

I guess my point really is that even though media sentiment has definitely improved over the last twelve months it won't really have turned around until they start doing stories like that. Right now it is more neutral material and constant ducking of the subject/ignoring the elephant in the room. Like CNBC.

 

[Unpilot]

Pfft! @Lycanthrope is building me walls. Big walls. Like King Kong Island of Skull walls. My islands will be just fine.

*note to self: consider adding domed roofing and climate control systems*. *oh! don’t forget to relocate all ant hills*

If anti gravity machine fails...I may have to invest in Boring co.

Can't go over...dig under.

 

[Nocturnal]

Problem is that it's the advertisers that are paying the money, not the audience, so if they don't want to lose advertising dollars, they have to say what the advertisers (and their upper management) want them to say. Of course doing this makes them more and more irrelevant.

A dangerous game in the day and age where people are ditching television coverage in droves.

We have been losing incentives for the past year and yet sales continue to rise. Demand is NOT an issue.

Dan

Revenue is declining you dumb long!

(they actually believe this)​

 

[Curt Renz]

My hunch is CNBC will cover TSLA 5 minutes before the close, so as to reduce the ability of people to react to the news (if there are people who haven't been tracking it!) ...but reduce the accusations that they didn't give TSLA any coverage.

They did give all-time-high coverage to other stocks earlier today like Google and Lowe's. Mysteriously, Tesla scraping on the door of a $90billion market cap was just not newsworthy enough I guess...

Clips of Elon dancing got worn out yesterday - hence no Tesla click-bait of interest for them today.

 

[StealthP3D]

They were suppose to talk about it in the 2pm est segment but they canceled it. Becky had the graphic up on next to her on what is coming up and she paused for a bit then it went away. They never said Tesla or anything about it

That's good. It's still a stealth bull run.

 

[davecolene0606]

So interest rates for the stock and margin requirements must be through the roof....

right?

right?

Fire Away!
“It’s the batteries, stupid!”

 

[adiggs]

I think you have a typo (102% should be 120%, right?). When I was poking around at Schwab, margin was 70% (or 75%, I forget) for $TSLA.

No - the 102% was correctly typed (though it might not be the correct amount - it's very very close to 100% of yesterdays' closing price in cash).

That's the very last resort backstop, on deposit with a unrelated 4th / 5th party so that if my broker goes bankrupt AND the short seller goes bankrupt, that cash isn't held by any of the parties that just went bankrupt, so me (the share lender) can get 100 or 102% of yesterdays' closing price for my lent shares that I'll never see again.


The broker directly protects themselves by way of the margin requirement they impose on the short seller. Looks like at Schwab, that was 70 or 75%. Reusing the example I made up, the short seller will get a margin call when their account goes under $75k (after maintaining the $100k cash outside of their brokerage account).

It's not quite as tough on the short seller as this might sound - they got cash up front when they sold those lent shares. So you can think of it as the cash they receive when they short sell as being sequestered in a 4th party account where nobody has access to it, and being daily updated using their brokerage account / margin to maintain the right amount.

 

[jerry33]

I get that, but I don't see how what I wrote makes their advertisers look bad. It puts the focus on Tesla, who isn't paying them money, true that. And it may be as simple as that.

It doesn't make the advertisers look bad, only the journalists and their platform.

 

[humbaba]

Tesla Director of Investor Relations Martin Viecha told analysts from Deutschebank that Cybertruck uses existing battery modules. It was discussed shortly after the conference, which was a couple weeks after the CT reveal.

TL;dr Don't expect Cybertruck to debut new bty tech.

You may well be right, but I do expect it to be "new" -- at least by some definition of the word. I believe the statement you are referring to is a hedge. That is, Tesla expects to be able to deliver new/cheaper batteries for the cyber truck, but they can hit the target (e.g., 500 of the 500+) with existing and still make the required profit.

This way, if things don't pan out they aren't caught short. They can still do the cyber truck. But if they can get the new battery tech in scale production then they can kill it.

 

[Vad42]

Apologies to John Fogerty:

I see Tesla stock price a risin'
I think 500 is on the way
I hear shorts and cynics cryin'
I see bulls a runnin' today

Don't sell your stock tonight
'Cause the future's lookin' bright
Tesla stock is on the rise

And it’s down to 490. I thought we had a strict no poetry rule here.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I remain worried this is still panicked buying. Would love to be wrong, and maybe you smart folks know it's just the big guys catching up.

The PANNICK comes after the Close with that "Ring, Ring, Ring..." that won't go away.

Followed by forced selling tomorrow morning due to todays $22+ increase in SP.

Cheers!

 

[humbaba]

It doesn't make the advertisers look bad, only the journalists and their platform.

The article I said they should write would make the journalists look bad? I'm confused.

Why can't they just say it like it is: "Upstart Tesla is restoring American dominance in the car market: it is on the brink of becoming the second most valuable car company in the world and may take the #1 crown from Japan for the first time in XX years."

 

[Thekiwi]

my biggest fear is poor m3 demand that drops in places like the USA and the Netherlands due to lower incentives and seasonality. But there is a possibility that demand keeps strong and new demand from the U.K. keeps the production lines at full power.

Another possible positive is of course early model Y shipments and FSD developments.

It is worth noting that in many US states, including the largest market for Tesla (California), the state level EV incentive was far larger than the just expired federal tax credit, and the state level incentives are all still in place.

For example in California you can still get a $4,500 EV subsidy on a Tesla, so the elimination of the $1875 fed credit isn’t as big a loss as it seems.

 

[LST]

At 4000/share, we (collectively here) can afford to create a new EV company called TMC.

I m in