Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Pezpunk]

Who's the dude on the forum here that has several thousand shares? Hmm. Doesn't seem to be participating much. He must be out putting his order in for 6 semis and 15 roadsters.

i've got about 1700 shares, but it's not like i bought them in the double digits.

 

[carterm2]

At 4000/share, we (collectively here) can afford to create a new EV company called TMC.

Dreaming of an upgrade shop... tweaker shop for Tesla. One product, if in tight alliance with Tesla, would be a way to take a pre-Raven to Plaid service. Likely the economics of this venture would fail at first glance, but in the long run it could have legs as the number of Tesla's pass into the millions.

 

[M3Rider]

Bought 6/22 500c
Hoping to sell my 1/22 500c in a few days for the same amount.

 

[printf42]

def predict_sp(history):

If history < 380:

return random.randint(10, 250)​

else:

raise NotImplemented(“R U crazy?”)

​

if __name__ == ‘__main__’:

try:

print(predict_sp(today))​

except Exception as e:

print(e.error_code)​

 

[pz1975]

I am planning to replace my 2013 Model S with a Model Y next year. Amazing that I will probably be able to buy it by selling <100 TSLA shares.

 

[Nocturnal]

Tesla Stock Is Richly Valued. GM’s in the 1950s Was Richer.

Tesla Stock Is Richly Valued. GM’s in the 1950s Was Richer.

Tesla became the largest car company in America ever Tuesday. Impressive, but there were some caveats; the biggest one being that market-value numbers weren’t adjusted for inflation.

So how does Tesla stock (ticker: TSLA) stack up versus that of General Motors (GM) back when the stalwart Detroit auto maker ruled the Fortune 500 list? It turns out, Tesla still has a way to go.

In fact, Tesla stock has to rise another 50% to 75%, based on Barron’s math, until the electric-vehicle pioneer can claim the...


Such a media turnaround in the past few months. I think the article is a kind of a back handed compliment but still.

 

[LJS22]

6 months ago our conviction was high on the idea that Q3 and Q4 would be big and China coming online would be a big catalyst for the stock going forward (plus Tesla truck) These came to fruition and we’ve been rewarded for it.

As we go forward (first half of the year) I think some things to look for that could continue this surge are
- Q4 earnings being positive
- China showing strong demand with deliveries
- battery day
- Q1 improving YoY
- Q1 and Q2 profitability
- S&P inclusion (huge)

Some negatives to watch for
- unexpected negatives in any of the quarterly reports (something not guided for)
- any sanctions of Tesla’s tech
- disappointing numbers out of China
- unexpected world events that hurt entire market

Positive Bonus
- FSD advancements
- Model Y early
- Solar or energy gains

The positives seem to be more likely, but I think it’s good to lay out these events when looking for rationality in TSLA. Happy to see any I missed that would be cause for celebration or hurt.

 

[Krugerrand]

So did I. Without exception, everyone told me I was crazy.

Oh, I thought they were referring to my haircut when they told me that. You really think it was because of TSLA? Hmmm...

 

[Krugerrand]

You can also adopt him, then no fighting is needed.

We need a *not helpful* button.

 

[Joe F]

Starting to feel sorry for the dumb shorts that got sucked in to the tslaq BS.

Thinking about throwing them a bone and selling some $TSLA to help them out.
Like my one share bought at $420.00, maybe at $520.00.

 

[lklundin]

Why do people sound so surprised by the price action lately? IMO we still have some distance to go before it’s at a reasonable valuation

For my part, I have felt Tesla was undervalued for years (which caused me to go long). Especially a year ago I expected the SP to break loose, only to see that it did not.

So to finally see that the price discovery has started comes as a very pleasant surprise...

 

[adiggs]

my question as well -- can shorts just default en masse, preventing a short squeeze? i mean as far as i can tell, there's nothing stopping a fund (i.e. corporation) from going bankrupt and defaulting on all its obligations, while its owners walk away with all their personal assets (and assets in other businesses) in tact.

The shorts can't default en masse, because the shares they were lent - those were borrowed by their broker from somebody (such as us). If the people that sold short default, then there are multiple protections in place for those that lent the shares in the first place.


The most obvious protection is that the shorts must daily put enough cash (it's all handled automatically by their broker) into a 4th or 5th party account that enables the lender of the shares to receive 102% (that's the number I remember - it's at least 100%) of yesterday's closing price in the event of a default. That cash isn't in the short seller's account, it isn't in any of the actively involved broker's accounts, and it isn't in the share lender's account.

The other backstop is that as a share lender (I was one a year or 3 back), I don't lend shares directly to a short seller. I lend my shares to my broker, who then lends them to the short seller. If I don't get my shares back, it isn't the short seller that's defaulting on me - it's my broker. Brokers are really REALLY allergic to defaulting on their obligations. It makes it sort of hard for them to do business.

SO, brokers have the cash backstop that is adjusted daily (lets assume 100% of the value of the borrowed shares for ease). And then, the broker has an additional margin requirement that the short seller needs to maintain. I figure with as volatile as Tesla is, that margin is more like to be 50% than 30% - if anybody knows the actual margin requirement any of the brokers are imposing right now, that'd be helpful. So if you're a short seller and have borrowed $100k worth of shares, then you're maintaining a daily updating cash balance of $100k (updates based on end of day share price) AND you're maintaining another $30-$50k as margin (which the broker uses to transfer cash back and forth to that cash account) and as additional protection for the broker. My guess is that as a short seller, you're probably working with something closer to $100k worth of margin in my example so you're not being margin called constantly.


The brokers that borrow and lend the shares are very VERY well protected from your scenario (short sellers defaulting and walking away from their obligations). If a short seller did go bankrupt, the cash account would be used immediately by the broker to buy at market enough shares to return the borrowed shares to the lender. Along with as much of the rest of the margin value in the short seller's account to get those shares. And the broker has all of the authority they need to sell off as much as they need to in the short seller's account to keep themselves and the share lenders whole.

Bankruptcy for the short seller happens sometime afterwards.


If short sellers somehow pulled off the scenario you're describing, it means that they also pulled companies like Fidelity, eTrade, (any broker from whom you can borrow shares for the purpose of short selling), and other brokers into bankruptcy with them. I trust Fidelity et. al. to protect themselves thoroughly and completely from allowing something like that to happen.

 

[Beltsbear]

6 months ago our conviction was high on the idea that Q3 and Q4 would be big and China coming online would be a big catalyst for the stock going forward (plus Tesla truck) These came to fruition and we’ve been rewarded for it.

As we go forward (first half of the year) I think some things to look for that could continue this surge are
- Q4 earnings being positive
- China showing strong demand with deliveries
- battery day
- Q1 improving YoY
- Q1 and Q2 profitability
- S&P inclusion (huge)

Some negatives to watch for
- unexpected negatives in any of the quarterly reports (something not guided for)
- any sanctions of Tesla’s tech
- disappointing numbers out of China
- unexpected world events that hurt entire market

The positives seem to be more likely, but I think it’s good to lay out these events when looking for rationality in TSLA. Happy to see any I missed that would be cause for celebration or hurt.

my biggest fear is poor m3 demand that drops in places like the USA and the Netherlands due to lower incentives and seasonality. But there is a possibility that demand keeps strong and new demand from the U.K. keeps the production lines at full power.

Another possible positive is of course early model Y shipments and FSD developments.

 

[Krugerrand]

If you guys start buying islands I will absolutely short you. Islands aren't going to do well with climate change coming.

Pfft! @Lycanthrope is building me walls. Big walls. Like King Kong Island of Skull walls. My islands will be just fine.

*note to self: consider adding domed roofing and climate control systems*. *oh! don’t forget to relocate all ant hills*

 

[humbaba]

Tesla Stock Is Richly Valued. GM’s in the 1950s Was Richer.

Tesla Stock Is Richly Valued. GM’s in the 1950s Was Richer.

Tesla became the largest car company in America ever Tuesday. Impressive, but there were some caveats; the biggest one being that market-value numbers weren’t adjusted for inflation.

So how does Tesla stock (ticker: TSLA) stack up versus that of General Motors (GM) back when the stalwart Detroit auto maker ruled the Fortune 500 list? It turns out, Tesla still has a way to go.

In fact, Tesla stock has to rise another 50% to 75%, based on Barron’s math, until the electric-vehicle pioneer can claim the...


Such a media turnaround in the past few months. I think the article is a kind of a back handed compliment but still.

You are right, it is quite the turn around. But I see this as pushing back against the recent reporting that Tesla blew past Ford's highest valuation. Its more of a "nuh uh, its not that valuable" rather than an acknowledgement of how Tesla has become.

Of course that last part is implicit, but pointing out that $TSLA has to appreciate 50% to 75% to take the price-adjusted crown is trying to undercut it.

Why can't they just say it like it is: "Upstart Tesla is restoring American dominance in the car market: it is on the brink of becoming the second most valuable car company in the world and may take the #1 crown from Japan for the first time in XX years."

I'm not really into flag-waving, but that seems to me to be a much better line to run with for an American audience.

 

[LJS22]

my biggest fear is poor m3 demand that drops in places like the USA and the Netherlands due to lower incentives and seasonality. But there is a possibility that demand keeps strong and new demand from the U.K. keeps the production lines at full power.

Another possible positive is of course early model Y shipments and FSD developments.

Yea I should have made a bonus category.
Bonus
- any FSD advancements
- any solar or energy gains

 

[Krugerrand]

But you said you're adopting, doesn't it mean whomever makes the list can live on the islands too?

Lora? Lynette?

I said I’m receiving requests for adoption. I did not say I was adopting. For the record: I am not adopting.

 

[humbaba]

The shorts can't default en masse, because the shares they were lent - those were borrowed by their broker from somebody (such as us). If the people that sold short default, then there are multiple protections in place for those that lent the shares in the first place.


The most obvious protection is that the shorts must daily put enough cash (it's all handled automatically by their broker) into a 4th or 5th party account that enables the lender of the shares to receive 102% (that's the number I remember - it's at least 100%) of yesterday's closing price in the event of a default. That cash isn't in the short seller's account, it isn't in any of the actively involved broker's accounts, and it isn't in the share lender's account.

The other backstop is that as a share lender (I was one a year or 3 back), I don't lend shares directly to a short seller. I lend my shares to my broker, who then lends them to the short seller. If I don't get my shares back, it isn't the short seller that's defaulting on me - it's my broker. Brokers are really REALLY allergic to defaulting on their obligations. It makes it sort of hard for them to do business.

SO, brokers have the cash backstop that is adjusted daily (lets assume 100% of the value of the borrowed shares for ease). And then, the broker has an additional margin requirement that the short seller needs to maintain. I figure with as volatile as Tesla is, that margin is more like to be 50% than 30% - if anybody knows the actual margin requirement any of the brokers are imposing right now, that'd be helpful. So if you're a short seller and have borrowed $100k worth of shares, then you're maintaining a daily updating cash balance of $100k (updates based on end of day share price) AND you're maintaining another $30-$50k as margin (which the broker uses to transfer cash back and forth to that cash account) and as additional protection for the broker. My guess is that as a short seller, you're probably working with something closer to $100k worth of margin in my example so you're not being margin called constantly.


The brokers that borrow and lend the shares are very VERY well protected from your scenario (short sellers defaulting and walking away from their obligations). If a short seller did go bankrupt, the cash account would be used immediately by the broker to buy at market enough shares to return the borrowed shares to the lender. Along with as much of the rest of the margin value in the short seller's account to get those shares. And the broker has all of the authority they need to sell off as much as they need to in the short seller's account to keep themselves and the share lenders whole.

Bankruptcy for the short seller happens sometime afterwards.


If short sellers somehow pulled off the scenario you're describing, it means that they also pulled companies like Fidelity, eTrade, (any broker from whom you can borrow shares for the purpose of short selling), and other brokers into bankruptcy with them. I trust Fidelity et. al. to protect themselves thoroughly and completely from allowing something like that to happen.

I think you have a typo (102% should be 120%, right?). When I was poking around at Schwab, margin was 70% (or 75%, I forget) for $TSLA.

 

[Todd Burch]

Buyers anticipating another margin-called step up tomorrow getting back in...

 

[Dan Detweiler]

my biggest fear is poor m3 demand that drops in places like the USA and the Netherlands due to lower incentives and seasonality. But there is a possibility that demand keeps strong and new demand from the U.K. keeps the production lines at full power.

Another possible positive is of course early model Y shipments and FSD developments.

We have been losing incentives for the past year and yet sales continue to rise. Demand is NOT an issue.

Dan