Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ggusev]

my TSLA stock gains allowed me to order an X a week ago, with expected delivery in 6-8 weeks this purchase will count as Q1'20
I have a strong feeling that I'm not alone who had this model in mind, many robinhood users expressed similar approach: "I'll use TSLA as piggy bank and hope gains will eventually pay for my Model3"

Tremendous rally from 200ish to almost 500 made this dream come true for many. If we see rapid decline in robinhood TSLA holders, you can bet anything that most of them just ordered their cars recently.
Plus, chinese buyers will buy (afaik already bought!) every MiC Tesla rolling out of GF3.

Having said that, with two massive waves of buyers - retail from RH and chinese, Q1 numbers might completely ignore so-called seasonality and beat any expectations.

 

[madodel]

Tesla Stock Is Richly Valued. GM’s in the 1950s Was Richer.

Tesla Stock Is Richly Valued. GM’s in the 1950s Was Richer.

Tesla became the largest car company in America ever Tuesday. Impressive, but there were some caveats; the biggest one being that market-value numbers weren’t adjusted for inflation.

So how does Tesla stock (ticker: TSLA) stack up versus that of General Motors (GM) back when the stalwart Detroit auto maker ruled the Fortune 500 list? It turns out, Tesla still has a way to go.

In fact, Tesla stock has to rise another 50% to 75%, based on Barron’s math, until the electric-vehicle pioneer can claim the...


Such a media turnaround in the past few months. I think the article is a kind of a back handed compliment but still.

How does TSLA compare with the market value of Conestoga Wagons Unlimited from the 1820s? Not even close when adjusted for inflation. And what good is a Tesla without a yoke for the draft horses?

 

[Pezpunk]

???

https://www.bizjournals.com/triangl...rolina-it-may-be-on.html?ana=yahoo&yptr=yahoo

sounds mostly like namedropping to gin up interest. Could easily just be a guy bragging that they called up someone at Tesla and pitched the site to them. There's nothing in the article indicating Tesla's actually interested.

 

[johnnybgood888]

I just don’t understand why you simply can’t go to @KarenRei ’s island. She wants you to come and admission is only a sapling. Heck, I’ll buy the sapling for you to take.

Speaking of which, are we still having a meetup on KarenRei's island when stock price is $500? I vaguely recall that was proposed way way way back when the stock price was in the 300's.

 

[KarenRei]

NSFW: Grimes posted this:

Daphne on Twitter

Most people apparently have just been staring at her breasts and failing to notice the silhouetted fetus in her abdomen. With the SpaceX drone ship logo right over it. In a related post she mentions being "knocked up".

Looks like Elon has another child on the way.

MODERATOR WARNING:
I am not even going to look to see if there have been follow-up posts. This is a ZERO TOLERANCE item: Absolutely no postings of any kind will be allowed to occur here. Take ALL to the "Elon Musk" thread....as a hint, it's not within the "Investor" subset.

 

[X Fan]

???

https://www.bizjournals.com/triangl...rolina-it-may-be-on.html?ana=yahoo&yptr=yahoo

NC would be a great state to invest in....combines access to a highly technical workforce along with needed manufacturing resources. Average electric rates are slightly lower than Nevada.

btw: I’m not a fan of Duke Power (significant coal ash polluter in NC) but to their credit they have been investing in Solar farms and have committed to an environmental cleanup.

 

[humbaba]

A mental exercise: if you have $10k to invest (that's all the money, no new money), stock XYZ is at $200. You know for a fact XYZ has 80% chance to go straight to $8k a share in 10 years. It also has 20% chance to drop to $140 temporarily, then rally to $8k.

Which of the following will give you the most return?

1. Wait for it to drop to $140, then get the max number of shares;
2. Invest half at $200, keep the other half in cash wait for the $140 entry;
3. Invest half at $200, keep the other half in cash, if stock goes to $500, invest the rest;
4. Invest them all at $200.

Relatedly, when I was looking at short interest I saw an article about how $TSLA was (at the time) trailing gains in the indexes. Looking at it that way would be your #4 -- buy all at once and no new investments. But what if you bought into it gradually -- not cherry picking your entry points, but at regular, consistent intervals. So I took the short interest data (which included closing price for mid-month and end of month) and assumed the same amount of money spent on shares at each point. Due to the volatility in the last year that simple mid/end stock buying plan had a better return rate than the indexes.

Furthermore, using the time interval of the data I had, holding at the beginning was about 9% loss instead of profit.

Which is to say, you missed #5, invest the money divided evenly over time. If a stock is volatile you will pick up lows as well as highs which should get you closer to "average" returns. I'm not saying its a good strategy, but I found it interesting that it performed better than buy-at-beginning for the arbitrary time interval I happened to use. Naturally it would perform worse if you picked your start date at $180

Just a thought

 

[ammulder]

sounds mostly like namedropping to gin up interest. Could easily just be a guy bragging that they called up someone at Tesla and pitched the site to them. There's nothing in the article indicating Tesla's actually interested.

Yeah, I'm sure Tesla has had a conversation with all kinds of people/places. This didn't say that Tesla is actually interested. It just says North Carolina has a big plot of land they're shopping around.

 

[Beltsbear]

A mental exercise: if you have $10k to invest (that's all the money, no new money), stock XYZ is at $200. You know for a fact XYZ has 80% chance to go straight to $8k a share in 10 years. It also has 20% chance to drop to $140 temporarily, then rally to $8k.

Which of the following will give you the most return?

1. Wait for it to drop to $140, then get the max number of shares;
2. Invest half at $200, keep the other half in cash wait for the $140 entry;
3. Invest half at $200, keep the other half in cash, if stock goes to $500, invest the rest;
4. Invest them all at $200.

Time in the market beats timing the market.

 

[Skryll]

And wealthy people get $0. There is an income cap too that isn't very hard to hit

The car lobby (?) somehow managed to infiltrate and screw over the California EV incentive system, starting with removing the distinction of HOV stickers so you can’t tell polluters from real zero emission vehicles. (Green vs white), reducing the limit of household income measured on some federal average income level instead of California, limiting the amount of times you can buy an electric car and get the rebate penalizing early adopters and also the lifetime of fully emission free vehicle stickers has been reduced so teslas get kicked out for new hybrids that may never get plugged in in the first place. It’s a scandal and nobody is reporting on it.

 

[Opus BC fan]

If anti gravity machine fails...I may have to invest in Boring co.

Can't go over...dig under.

or...

 

[replicant]

 

[M3Rider]

Today surpassed 10/25/19 and took its place as the 8th highest volume day in TSLA history. Was there any news today? What is going to happen when there is an actual earnings report driving the stock?

I'm actually wondering if it's going to matter much.
Things are getting priced in early, maybe? (Minus FSD)
It probably isn't spectacular, likely comparable to Q3 maybe + 10%?

It seems that the buying pressure finally isn't related to a single ER?

Opinions?

 

[Cherry Wine]

Anyone else have this weird feeling like you're the dog that caught the car and you don't know what to do? Lol...

 

[Artful Dodger]

Anyone please tell me that the real short squeezing starting today? I am just too excited!

Check this link after 17:45 hrs today:

tsla | Volumebot

30.5 Million shares traded on NASDAQ today, look to see:

1. How many trades were reported via FINRA
2. What is the "Short Percent"? (Avg is 49.27%, +/-9.77)

Analysis:

• if the No. of Shares reported via FINRA is low, that implies heavy trading by Market Makers
• if the "Short Percent" is high, that implies heavy manipulation by Shorts (brokerages, hedge funds)

We'll have data in 1 hr.

Cheers!

 

[anthonyj]

Paging @anthonyj

Twitter


Will Meade

@realwillmeade

Over 5000 $TSLA 1/17 $700 calls for 36 cents have traded today and they’re buying more now. That is not a misprint as Tesla is $497 right now

Yeah I told you guys that ur all freaking bears ok. If you don’t believe $1,000 by next Friday then maybe $TSLA isn’t for you. This smells like bitcoin when it broke $3k in 2017. There will be a bubble, it will pop, but much higher than where we are. Elon asked Trump to have Plunge Protection Team to pump his stock in exchange for SpaceForce. Telling u guys

 

[Wooloomooloo]

A mental exercise: if you have $10k to invest (that's all the money, no new money), stock XYZ is at $200. You know for a fact XYZ has 80% chance to go straight to $8k a share in 10 years. It also has 20% chance to drop to $140 temporarily, then rally to $8k.

Which of the following will give you the most return?

1. Wait for it to drop to $140, then get the max number of shares;
2. Invest half at $200, keep the other half in cash wait for the $140 entry;
3. Invest half at $200, keep the other half in cash, if stock goes to $500, invest the rest;
4. Invest them all at $200.

There isn't a strategy listed that definitively gets you the best return given the scenario, it's all about probability. You do state that the stock eventually goes to $8k regardless, it's just whether it's a straight line, or via a drop.

Option 1 has a 20% chance of the highest return, but if the price never drops then there is 0 return
Option 4 has an 80% chance of the highest return
Option 3 has 100% chance of the lowest return whatever happens - option 2 and 3 need to be combined for either to make sense.

 

[LJS22]

Elon’s mom is about to be on CNBC if anyone wants to watch

 

[liuping]

And wealthy people get $0. There is an income cap too that isn't very hard to hit

True.
Income Eligibility

The cap is:

• $150,000 for single filers
• $204,000 for head–of–household filers
• $300,000 for joint filers

 

[Nocturnal]

NC would be a great state to invest in....combines access to a highly technical workforce along with needed manufacturing resources. Average electric rates are slightly lower than Nevada.

btw: I’m not a fan of Duke Power (significant coal ash polluter in NC) but to their credit they have been investing in Solar farms and have committed to an environmental cleanup.

There isn't much to this but building the Cybertruck in the South would also give it some more credence over a car "made in liberal commie Kalifornia". (not my words, paraphrasing common comments)

The car lobby (?) somehow managed to infiltrate and screw over the California EV incentive system, starting with removing the distinction of HOV stickers so you can’t tell polluters from real zero emission vehicles. (Green vs white), reducing the limit of household income measured on some federal average income level instead of California, limiting the amount of times you can buy an electric car and get the rebate penalizing early adopters and also the lifetime of fully emission free vehicle stickers has been reduced so teslas get kicked out for new hybrids that may never get plugged in in the first place. It’s a scandal and nobody is reporting on it.

As somebody who lives in a state with literally zero incentives for EVs or solar, it's hard for me to get really upset by that.

I think an income cap is not unreasonable. I think adding extra weight to people on the low income side of things and the used market is definitely a good thing. Poor people should get to experience cheap tesla transportation too right? ​