Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[NakedLong]

Sony is not going to building an EV. You are greatly underestimating what Tesla has accomplished in only 12 years. Any expertise Sony has is far, far, removed from what it takes to debut a successful EV.

Apple is not going to either.

I was thinking about this earlier. The trouble with building an EV is that there are so many competencies required.

Core competencies for making EVs:
* Batteries
* Drive trains
* At scale auto manufacturing (supply chain management/logistics/robotics) This is quite different to the precision manufacturing of making phones.
* Software (UX&UI/big data/FSD/AI/OTA infrastructure)
* Chip design (for FSD - not technically necessary for EVs now but will be in a few years)

Then there are the soft requirements:
* Talent acquisition
* Brand development/trust in the EV space

And there are financial barriers:
* R&D costs
* At scale manufacturing capital costs
* Charging network costs

And there are advantages to being first and biggest in the EV space:
* Talent acquisition (people want to work for Tesla much more than Sony)
* Tech acquisition (eg new battery tech)
* Economies of scale
* First mover advantage
- cost reduction realisation from more mature tech - pricing advantage
- first to market advantages such as creating a monopoly by more mature tech

Tesla basically has gone through the gauntlet already. All other companies are missing (often many) components of EV tech that I listed above. This applies to traditional auto, Apple, Dyson, Sony, Rivian... literally everyone not Tesla.

And the difficult thing for all these other companies is that the first mover advantage is huge. Tesla is so far ahead already that other companies' products look terrible in comparison, from a tech as well as from a pricing perspective.

This is a feedback loop where Tesla only accelerates away from the competition. A bigger market share equates to...

- more data for FSD
- better charging network
- penetration into more difficult markets
- better brand/tech awareness
- better ability to attract tech/talent
- cheaper prices through scale

...thus the feedback loop continues.

The only time the competition can catch up is when the tech levels off in 10 years from now, and most of the components of EVs have been commoditised, such as batteries/drive trains/FSD/etc. The next 5-10 years are going to be the golden years for Tesla where no-one can even come close to them. 500 might seem rich now, but wait 10 years and see what you think of 500 then... you will kick yourself for not selling everything you have to put into Tesla at 500.

 

[StealthP3D]

Tesla can sell cars directly in NC and has been able to since 2013. There were some issues with getting new sales licenses after the first one but they are now able to have up to 6 sales locations. Tesla Owners - NC Triangle - Legislative

Good thing the NC legislature is on top of this problem and has limited Tesla to 6 stores. Imagine how bad it would be for the people of NC if Tesla built 7 or 8 stores!

 

[AudubonB]

If you guys start buying islands I will absolutely short you. Islands aren't going to do well with climate change coming.

I've got a better idea. We all chip in and throw K-Rand onto Inaccessible Island. 37º15'S 12º45'W. It's win-win-win all around:
* No one will ever bother to invade
* No one will ever be bothered by K-Rand again
* No one will have to worry about sea-level rise
* No Moderator will have to endure this absolutely inane series of posts

What's to lose!

 

[pz1975]

Bankrupt
Money
Waster

 

[Bobfitz1]

Um...no! Many here seem to be awesome individuals, but there is no way I’d want to build an EV company with y’all. That’s my line in the sand. Oh, and that you’re to stay off my islands.

Bet you didn't see the 2nd, 3rd, etc. islands coming so soon after the first!

 

[canoemore]

That makes me feel a bit better about my buys.

By coincidence, I bought our initial shares at ~185 years ago...

Boy, talk about getting in on the ground floor. Must have been a half-penny a share!

 

[StealthP3D]

Despite claims of bats in the belfry and ants in the pants, it would appear that progress continues on GF4. Somehow I think they are managing the bio aspects as they are a known issue the same as the ordnance -- its a matter of identifying and dealing with each one. Nothing new.

Using first-principles thinking, Elon trained the bats to eat the ants. They were extra tasty and easy pickings so the bats spread out in search of more ant colonies.

Both problems solved!

 

[Robertj]

If we match the week of 25 October when we went up $72 , we have another $23 to run to $515

 

[Artful Dodger]

TSLA short sellers seem to have gone for a bankrupt or nothing strategy, atleast the more vocal ones and I think that’s made this more painful. Zero common sense was used. But at the same time an electric car company that started production during a recession, and knowing there hadn’t been a successful auto company in the US since the 20’s...it’s amazing where we are.

@CommonSense is on the TSLAQ block list

 

[SteveG3]

Results from poll:
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/poll-when-will-tsla-be-included-in-s-p500.180708/
When will TSLA be included in S&P500?

1. 
   Feb 2020
   1 vote(s)
   1.3%
2. 
   Mar 2020
   2 vote(s)
   2.5%
3. 
   Apr 2020
   9 vote(s)
   11.3%
4. *
   May 2020
   28 vote(s)
   35.0%
5. 
   Jun 2020
   19 vote(s)
   23.8%
6. 
   Jul 2020
   6 vote(s)
   7.5%
7. 
   Aug 2020
   5 vote(s)
   6.3%
8. 
   Sep 2020
   6 vote(s)
   7.5%
9. 
   Oct 2020
   2 vote(s)
   2.5%
10. 
    Nov 2020
    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
11. 
    Dec 2020
    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
12. 
    2021 or later
    2 vote(s)
    2.5%
    
    
    60% going for May / June. Very few think next year.

Perhaps someone whose watched this more carefully than myself can fill in the details,

but, isn’t the timing of entry into the S&P 500 substantially impacted by non-Tesla specific events such as 1) when another company exits the S&P due to a merger or something of the sort or 2) S&P choosing to update its composition of companies? Is 2) known to be on any regular schedule or ad hoc?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Just look at that volume. Any bets to say it'll hit three times the average by end of day?

4x vol (31.1M). Its the zombie apocalypse for Shortzes.

 

[Nocturnal]

@CommonSense is on the TSLAQ block list

• denial
• anger
• bargaining
• depression
• acceptance

• 
  Some of the shorts seem to have hit the depression stage, most are still in bargaining "Ok, we are losing, but it's because of subsidies, irrational market etc."

 

[Cherry Wine]

4x vol (31.1M). Its the zombie apocalypse for Shortzes.

Just noticed it was higher than the two days after Q3 ER (not combined, but each day individually). Whoa.

 

[avoigt]

You cannot make this up:

BMW to stand by combustion engines for at least 30 more years: 'Most of the US does not need BEVs'

BMW’s head of Research and Development Klaus Froehlich:

"On the diesel side, production of the 1.5-liter, three-cylinder entry engine will end and the 400-hp, six-cylinder won’t be replaced because it is too expensive and too complicated to build with its four turbos. However, our four- and six-cylinder diesels will remain for at least another 20 years and our gasoline units for at least 30 years,” he said.

....

"Most of the U.S. does not need BEVs. We could offer high-performance plug-in hybrids in the M space, providing a lot of fun to the driver as well as ZEV credits for us. We see BEVs mainly in the west coast and parts of the east coast, while the rest of the U.S. will continue with conventional gasoline engines,” he said.​

No, this is not from the Onion. (I double checked.)

Despite 22 fun votes which I fully understand, its more sad than funny at least for me here in Munich where this Fröhlich is located at the HQ from BMW. Frankly this sounds like famous last words for me.

Fröhlich tried to become CEO a short while ago where he stated that there is no interest from anybody to buy a BEV. Their new cEO is not much better.

Its hard to comprehend how somehow can be so reluctant to look at hard data or even drove a decent BEV. His love for PHEVs and Hybrids comes and he states that clearly from the incentives people get.

In fact this vehicles due to their more heavy weight and bad efficiency consume more gas than an pure ICE. Let that sink in.

The German Government is paying incentives for people buying cars that consume gas more than an ICE. And Brussels gives BMW carbon certificates for selling those Hybrids.

Today (US time) a person from a fleet Management company posted that the leased hybrids they get back even after up to 38 months have not used charging cables and they can prove that owners only used the gas engine and not the hybrid. He continues he could not believe it but its true. Other fleet Managers reported people say they don't know how to use it. Videos are all around of hybrids driving with ICE through cities. Still the German Government does give them money for it.

This is sad and the more I hear more BMW the more I doubt that they will survive as what they believe to be a victory which is selling Hybrids and getting certificates put them into a disadvantage because they loose valuable time to invest in BEV R&D.

 

[Curt Renz]

Perhaps someone whose watched this more carefully than myself can fill in the details,

but, isn’t the timing of entry into the S&P 500 substantially impacted by non-Tesla specific events such as 1) when another company exits the S&P due to a merger or something of the sort or 2) S&P choosing to update its composition of companies? Is 2) known to be on any regular schedule or ad hoc?

Investopedia: The S&P 500: The Index You Need To Know

 

[Artful Dodger]

Told you guys and gals it was gonna be 500 or fight...

Today, tomorrow, or Friday?

meh, 500 is a speed bump. Nothing compared to 420, which also didn't hold.

Shortzes will likely make their last stand at $555 (in the vain hope of denying Elon his payday). It won't hold, because Elon isn't working for MONEY. He's working to make progress, the kind EVERYBODY wants. Thats why Tesla's sell for a premium, and that applies to TSLA as well.

We'll blow thru $555 like a hot knife thru butter, then Index Funds buying for the S&P 500 will boost us thru the ionosphere on pure impulse power.

Cheers!

 

[SteveG3]

Investopedia: The S&P 500: The Index You Need To Know

thanks. I didn’t see anything really explicit about timing, but nearly everything they discussed suggested to me a process driven by the timing of existing SP 500 members being dropped rather than new companies coming in. perhaps someone here has a more thorough understanding of the process than what was in the link... I’m particularly curious if there is a regularly scheduled review, ie, quarterly, every six months etc.

what’s more, even if a company is dropped, we don’t know if Tesla would be list of 1 or several companies on stand by for addition. Tesla would almost ‘certainly’ be the biggest, but, given what appeared to be shenanigans from Moody’s re Tesla debt ratings, I would not be shocked if a company other than Tesla gets added ahead of Tesla even when we’ve hit all the requirements for inclusion.

just trying to get a clearer, picture... please don’t heckle the messenger.

 

[StealthP3D]

• denial
• anger
• bargaining
• depression
• acceptance

• 
  Some of the shorts seem to have hit the depression stage, most are still in bargaining "Ok, we are losing, but it's because of subsidies, irrational market etc."

It's unfortunate the last stage of "acceptance" involves covering and losing all their money. It would have been nice to add another market demographic to Tesla's sales quiver.

I suppose this is more poetic justice. It takes the money from those who would never have bought a Tesla anyway and transfers it to those who support Tesla's mission and want to take better care of our planet. I suspect the effect of this transfer of wealth will pass down through multiple generations. Previously, oil money was handed down through the generations. And since money is power, this explains why it is so difficult to stamp out oil interests.

 

[Artful Dodger]

same here .. i am actually considering retirement right now.. need to thank this forum for the mental toughness of the folks on this thread.. i have wanted to bail more times than i can count this year ... also where is @neroden?

.

I was kind of retired a year ago. Thanks to the folks on this thread, I may not have to eat cat food--at least not for awhile.

Hearts of Gold, and now wallets, too.

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[elasalle]

Get Outta the Way