In GF1 Tesla does the supply chain and Panasonic does the manufacturing.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
They're convinced that Q1 is going to be horrible, a repeat of Q1 last year.
This is going to be glorious
The more I have thought about that Fortune article and the TSLA "Blindfold Test", the more exasperated...irritated...angry I have become.
Here is a rather novel way of sharing that with you.
Do you recognize this? I know that a small number of you are intimately familiar with it; others may at least know of it. It comes from the brush of the very very anti-capitalist, that giant of Mexican socialist art, muralist José Clemente Orozco. In it, Orozco is depicting the dry, sterile, dead outcome of mere book-learning.
I think it amusing as well as appropriate that even someone as far from Wall St as it may possibly be can capture the essence of that ridiculous essay: put on blinders, restrict your analysis to a simplistic, close-minded set of numbers.....and you will thereupon achieve your own, pre-determined result. That is, you are doomed to fail.
Here is a rather novel way of sharing that with you.
Do you recognize this? I know that a small number of you are intimately familiar with it; others may at least know of it. It comes from the brush of the very very anti-capitalist, that giant of Mexican socialist art, muralist José Clemente Orozco. In it, Orozco is depicting the dry, sterile, dead outcome of mere book-learning.
I think it amusing as well as appropriate that even someone as far from Wall St as it may possibly be can capture the essence of that ridiculous essay: put on blinders, restrict your analysis to a simplistic, close-minded set of numbers.....and you will thereupon achieve your own, pre-determined result. That is, you are doomed to fail.
XHabjab
TSLA Bull
Yeah and they just blasted through $4.20.
Last edited:
The Icelandic word for "stupid" is heimsk(ur), from an earlier meaning more along the lines of "ignorant". It ultimately derives from heima (at home). The notion being that you can hear about the world beyond your doorstep, you can spend your whole life reading about it, but unless you actually see it yourself, experience it, get to know it personally, you'll never really understand it. "Heima alinn".
That Fortune article, asking people to divorce themselves from actually knowing the company and to only look at cherry-picked, distorted (at times beyond recognition) info that the author wants them to, is asking them to be heimsk. Ignorant. Stupid. Don't actually look into things yourself. Just take the information that I give you at face value. Trust that you're getting an accurate picture with your blindfold on.
Honestly, it's so terrible, it should be bookmarked. It'll be hilarious a few years from now
Last edited:
And maybe Blackrock might also be interested in defending their position by countering the manipulation to screw up their tests.
New boss in town.
True, but buying a company for such a short term need, vs just buying cobalt from them until it isn’t needed suggests the need is longer term.
I suppose it also depends how much they’re paying for it.
I believe USA to Europe comparison is a good one. Europe has more choices for longer distance travel. My trips in Europe have made me love rail, especially high speed rail. We simply dont have rail as a choice in the USA. Then throw in by the time a compact comes out the SuperCharger network will be even more built out. So one of the choices you make when you choose the smaller compact vehicle is that if you are going to make a long distance trip is to use the SuperCharger network or opt for a more expensive battery.
I think it's a bad title. Negotiations to buy cobalt from Glencore, as opposed to buying the company "Glencore Cobalt"
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
FTFY
Ah, that’s what I get for just reading the headline. I thought “Glencore Cobalt” was the name of the company.
I'm starting to wonder if the Y will be launching even earlier than we think.
SunCatcher
Member
Unfortunately for them, Musk is also pushing hard in this direction....
Natural gas has a great run ahead of it... for the next decade or so. But it's going to steadily switch from baseload to peaking and enter a slow decline of increasingly diminished plant capacity factors.
/OT
When the Middle East oil producers switched from FREE natural gas (waste product of oil refining) to solar, for powering their oil field pumps, because it's cheaper!!!, well that pretty much ends the argument. "How can that be?", some may ask. The natural gas generators, though fueled with free fuel, still need costly maintenance and repairs. Solar panels are relatively maintenance free to operate after installation.
This VRPO documentary shows this transition, and is one of my all time favorite YouTube videos.
/OT and now back to our regularly scheduled broadcast...
Launching, perhaps; there's an increasing trickle of evidence in that direction. But let's not mix that up with scaleup rate. The production line isn't going to burst into existence fully formed, like Athena from Zeus's head.
Also, like with GF3, there may well be a period of time between when Ys start rolling out the door and when they actually go to customers. There's no big deadline rush this time like there was with the 3. Better to do things right than to do them quickly.
For sure. There is no way they could keep that quiet.Launching, perhaps. But let's not mix that up with scaleup rate. The production line isn't going to burst into existence fully formed, like Athena from Zeus's head.
Launching, perhaps. But let's not mix that up with scaleup rate. The production line isn't going to burst into existence fully formed, like Athena from Zeus's head.
Indeed. My thought is we'll likely see something like we saw for the Model 3's initial 'launch,' a couple dozen cars, very soon now. Only Tesla seems to have learned their lesson, and that 'launch' will be much earlier than the promised arrival of the Y (summer) so that when summer is in full swing, so is Model Y production. They did the 'old way' with both the X and 3, and it was disappointing from both a customer and investor POV because even once those cars 'launched,' volume was so meager as to be virtually nothing for several months after 'launch.'
Y seems to be heading toward a soft 'launch' followed by an on-time arrival of volume production in the summer. Time will tell, but that's what it is increasingly looking like to my old eyes.
Last edited:
Copying this post from a thread I posted on Twitter. Reflex Research on Twitter
Key variables for Tesla’s 2020 earnings are: Maximum potential production, Demand and like for like production cost reduction.
What production capacity is Tesla building in 2020?
Tesla ended Q4 with an annualised production rate of 344k Fremont Model 3s (up 40% yoy) & 72k S&X. This is relative to Fremont Model 3 capacity of 350k & S&X 90k (likely constrained from 100k by cell supply) or a total 440k disclosed in the Q3 report.
The key question for 2020 is how much production capacity will be added with GF3 Model 3 & Y & Fremont Model Y.
Production capacity can be measured as: A) Current quarterly production, B) Current maximum burst rate per hour achieved, C) Max capacity on current equipment once ramped, D) Max capacity in current footprint with extra capex.
GF3
Phase 1 of GF3 is 150k annual Model 3s & has already run at this rate on an hourly basis.
Both the Shanghai government & Elon have said GF3 targets 500k capacity long term. I guess this is 250k Model 3 & 250k Model Y.
I guess each GF3 line is 150k initially & upgradeable to 250k in the same footprint with extra capex.
But how many can be produced at GF3 in 2020? This depends how quickly the 3 line is ramped to 3k/week & potentially on to 5k/week.
In my model I have ~100k produced in 2020.
MIC Model Y looks to be running around 1 year behind MIC 3, so there is unlikely to be meaningful production in 2020, but it could finish the year with 150k or 250k installed capacity.
Back to Fremont.
What is Model Y capacity & will it reduce 3/S/X capacity?
We know from internal plans leaked to Business Insider in late 2018 Tesla initially planned to produce 7k/week Model Y at GF1 by Dec-2020 & 5k/week Model Y at GF3 by Feb-21. Leaked documents reveal Tesla had an aggressive production ramp for its Model Y — but the company says that its plans have changed
So Tesla designed the Model Y line for 7k capacity & likely ordered parts of the line at this stage, but did designs change when location moved from GF1 to Fremont?
I guess Tesla reduced the US Y capacity to ~5k/week while accelerating plans for EU GF4.
But alternatively it might only add 3k/week & take 3k of the 7k/week Model 3 - leaving 7k Y capacity & 4k 3. And maybe it is just adding the full 7k new capacity - leaving 7k 3 & 7k Y?
Will addition of Y capacity at Fremont reduce Model 3 from its 7k/week capacity?
On the Q3 call regarding Model Y Elon said: "Yeah, the body line is separate, the paint line is -- basically we do not expect it to interfere with Model 3.”
On the Q1 call, Elon said: “We are trying to decide whether Model Y vehicle production should be in California or Nevada.. But in the meantime, we have ordered all of the tooling and equipment required for Model Y. So, we don’t expect this in anyway to delay production of Model Y”
This suggests Y will not cannibalise Model 3 production & the lines will be separate & not flexible between 3/Y. But how much space is there really at Fremont?
I think many of the Model 3 sub-lines were designed for 5k per week - they were waiting on hitting the 5k level before signing off on more capex to duplicate parts of the production line. But instead the China trade war caused Tesla to accelerate GF3 - so Tesla spent limited capex pushing the Fremont line past 5k/week to 7k/week while building 3k new capacity in China. So there was likely still space in Fremont set aside for stage 2 of the Model 3 program & Tesla is also removing old storage & service space to make way for Y.
Some parts of the Model 3 line were built for the full 10k/week initial target (likely stamping & paint shop). Is there space to expand the stamp/paint shop etc capacity from 10k per week to 12k (7k 3, 5k Y) or 14k (7k 3, 7k Y)?
I don’t know, but I don't think Tesla would have decided to build Model 3 at Fremont over GF1 if there wasn't space to solve all production bottlenecks. I’m going with a base case that Tesla is building 7k/week Model 3 & 5k/week Model Y capacity at Fremont.
Installed capacity at the end of 2020:
So by the end of 2020, maximum production capacity potentially looks like:
Fremont: Model 3 360k, S/X 90k, Y 250k, Roadster 10k.
GF3: Model 3 150k. Model Y 250k.
GF1: Semi 25k.
Total: 1,135k.
But the reality could be anywhere from 900k to 1,500k.
Note this is not a 2020 production estimate or even a weekly run-rate for Dec-2020 - it is just how much can be built eventually per year on the equipment installed at this date.
This 1,135k capacity would require battery GWh capacity of ~65GWh in the US and ~28GWh in China.
In terms of actual annual production, I think Tesla could produce anywhere from 500k to 700k in 2020, potentially with Q4 production at ~190k.
Consensus is currently for ~450k deliveries in 2020.
I think Tesla could announce 2020 deliveries guidance of 550k-600k.
600k 2020 production would require ~39GWh of battery Cells at Fremont (vs ~35 GWh capacity at GF1 & ~8GWh S/X cell capacity in Japan) and ~7GWh of cell production in China.
By the end of 2021 I think Tesla is potentially aiming for production capacity of ~1.7 million cars (710k Fremont, 400k GF3, 250k GF4, 300k GF1(or GF5 US). This could potentially correspond to 2021 production and deliveries of ~1.1 million.
Remember @elonmusk told @ARKInvest in early 2019 he expects Tesla to hit an annualised production rate of 1.5 million vehicles sometime in 2021 and 3 million in 2023. And on the Q3 call he said his long term target for Tesla is around 20 million per year.
Clearly all this requires a lot of work to grow demand from the ~450k annualised level of 4Q19 (though it could be higher as we do not know the change in net order book).
Key levers to increase demand are:
Key variables for Tesla’s 2020 earnings are: Maximum potential production, Demand and like for like production cost reduction.
What production capacity is Tesla building in 2020?
Tesla ended Q4 with an annualised production rate of 344k Fremont Model 3s (up 40% yoy) & 72k S&X. This is relative to Fremont Model 3 capacity of 350k & S&X 90k (likely constrained from 100k by cell supply) or a total 440k disclosed in the Q3 report.
The key question for 2020 is how much production capacity will be added with GF3 Model 3 & Y & Fremont Model Y.
Production capacity can be measured as: A) Current quarterly production, B) Current maximum burst rate per hour achieved, C) Max capacity on current equipment once ramped, D) Max capacity in current footprint with extra capex.
GF3
Phase 1 of GF3 is 150k annual Model 3s & has already run at this rate on an hourly basis.
Both the Shanghai government & Elon have said GF3 targets 500k capacity long term. I guess this is 250k Model 3 & 250k Model Y.
I guess each GF3 line is 150k initially & upgradeable to 250k in the same footprint with extra capex.
But how many can be produced at GF3 in 2020? This depends how quickly the 3 line is ramped to 3k/week & potentially on to 5k/week.
In my model I have ~100k produced in 2020.
MIC Model Y looks to be running around 1 year behind MIC 3, so there is unlikely to be meaningful production in 2020, but it could finish the year with 150k or 250k installed capacity.
Back to Fremont.
What is Model Y capacity & will it reduce 3/S/X capacity?
We know from internal plans leaked to Business Insider in late 2018 Tesla initially planned to produce 7k/week Model Y at GF1 by Dec-2020 & 5k/week Model Y at GF3 by Feb-21. Leaked documents reveal Tesla had an aggressive production ramp for its Model Y — but the company says that its plans have changed
So Tesla designed the Model Y line for 7k capacity & likely ordered parts of the line at this stage, but did designs change when location moved from GF1 to Fremont?
I guess Tesla reduced the US Y capacity to ~5k/week while accelerating plans for EU GF4.
But alternatively it might only add 3k/week & take 3k of the 7k/week Model 3 - leaving 7k Y capacity & 4k 3. And maybe it is just adding the full 7k new capacity - leaving 7k 3 & 7k Y?
Will addition of Y capacity at Fremont reduce Model 3 from its 7k/week capacity?
On the Q3 call regarding Model Y Elon said: "Yeah, the body line is separate, the paint line is -- basically we do not expect it to interfere with Model 3.”
On the Q1 call, Elon said: “We are trying to decide whether Model Y vehicle production should be in California or Nevada.. But in the meantime, we have ordered all of the tooling and equipment required for Model Y. So, we don’t expect this in anyway to delay production of Model Y”
This suggests Y will not cannibalise Model 3 production & the lines will be separate & not flexible between 3/Y. But how much space is there really at Fremont?
I think many of the Model 3 sub-lines were designed for 5k per week - they were waiting on hitting the 5k level before signing off on more capex to duplicate parts of the production line. But instead the China trade war caused Tesla to accelerate GF3 - so Tesla spent limited capex pushing the Fremont line past 5k/week to 7k/week while building 3k new capacity in China. So there was likely still space in Fremont set aside for stage 2 of the Model 3 program & Tesla is also removing old storage & service space to make way for Y.
Some parts of the Model 3 line were built for the full 10k/week initial target (likely stamping & paint shop). Is there space to expand the stamp/paint shop etc capacity from 10k per week to 12k (7k 3, 5k Y) or 14k (7k 3, 7k Y)?
I don’t know, but I don't think Tesla would have decided to build Model 3 at Fremont over GF1 if there wasn't space to solve all production bottlenecks. I’m going with a base case that Tesla is building 7k/week Model 3 & 5k/week Model Y capacity at Fremont.
Installed capacity at the end of 2020:
So by the end of 2020, maximum production capacity potentially looks like:
Fremont: Model 3 360k, S/X 90k, Y 250k, Roadster 10k.
GF3: Model 3 150k. Model Y 250k.
GF1: Semi 25k.
Total: 1,135k.
But the reality could be anywhere from 900k to 1,500k.
Note this is not a 2020 production estimate or even a weekly run-rate for Dec-2020 - it is just how much can be built eventually per year on the equipment installed at this date.
This 1,135k capacity would require battery GWh capacity of ~65GWh in the US and ~28GWh in China.
In terms of actual annual production, I think Tesla could produce anywhere from 500k to 700k in 2020, potentially with Q4 production at ~190k.
Consensus is currently for ~450k deliveries in 2020.
I think Tesla could announce 2020 deliveries guidance of 550k-600k.
600k 2020 production would require ~39GWh of battery Cells at Fremont (vs ~35 GWh capacity at GF1 & ~8GWh S/X cell capacity in Japan) and ~7GWh of cell production in China.
By the end of 2021 I think Tesla is potentially aiming for production capacity of ~1.7 million cars (710k Fremont, 400k GF3, 250k GF4, 300k GF1(or GF5 US). This could potentially correspond to 2021 production and deliveries of ~1.1 million.
Remember @elonmusk told @ARKInvest in early 2019 he expects Tesla to hit an annualised production rate of 1.5 million vehicles sometime in 2021 and 3 million in 2023. And on the Q3 call he said his long term target for Tesla is around 20 million per year.
Clearly all this requires a lot of work to grow demand from the ~450k annualised level of 4Q19 (though it could be higher as we do not know the change in net order book).
Key levers to increase demand are:
- Growth of the customer car fleet which drives word of mouth marketing as ~99% of surveyed Model 3 customers would recommend to friends & family.
- Expansion of the Service centre & Supercharger network.
- Launch in new regions & countries.
- Scaling back up the customer referral program.
- Lower pricing (both due to production cost savings and localised production savings tariffs & delivery costs)
- Free media & social media marketing from launch events, Autopilot features, tweets etc.
- Advertising if necessary to increase awareness of the advantages of EVs & cost of ownership savings.
- More supportive government EV policy.
Last edited:
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
