Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

Had that same question. That's a beefy foundation. The foundry for GF4 is situated at that point on the line. And it does seem to make obvious sense.

#Gf4 #Gigafactory4 on Twitter

I have not seen evidence of such a foundry at Fremont, in counterpoint.

Tesla's California foundry is at Lathrop AFAIK.

 

[Fact Checking]

Wow, VW's ID.3 debacle seems to be getting worse:

VW Again ! Delayed The Long Waiting ID.3 to Spring 2021
​

Note: the report is based on a single email sent to a customer and is unconfirmed.

 

[StealthP3D]

And I think battery-storage is relatively low tech especially when there are no special demands (size, weight, safety) like when they are used in cars.

Would somebody care to enlighten me? Is it the battery-supply? What am I missing?

It has to do with cost. You say battery storage is low tech. And that's true if we just continue to make the same battery, using the same manufacturing techniques. But to make huge GWh's of batteries at low cost requires innovation. If batteries continue to be made the same way they will cost the same amount.

 

[StealthP3D]

Wow, VW's ID.3 debacle seems to be getting worse:

VW Again ! Delayed The Long Waiting ID.3 to Spring 2021
​

Note: the report is based on a single email sent to a customer and is unconfirmed.

It's almost too big of a disaster to believe it's real. I mean, tens of thousands of new cars sitting in the elements (in rented parking lots) for over a year while they wait for adequate software to be developed? I want to believe this is fake.

That's no way to kill Tesla!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

It's almost too big of a disaster to believe it's real. I mean, tens of thousands of new cars sitting in the elements (in rented parking lots) for over a year while they wait for adequate software to be developed? I want to believe this is fake.

That's no way to kill Tesla!

Unless they plan on going and starting up each car and charging them on a weekly basis, the batteries in those cars will be goners by the time they actually are ready to sell right???? As in degradation of the battery

 

[KarenRei]

Wow, VW's ID.3 debacle seems to be getting worse:

VW Again ! Delayed The Long Waiting ID.3 to Spring 2021
​

Note: the report is based on a single email sent to a customer and is unconfirmed.

If true, they're going to owe a fortune to the EU re: emissions this year.

 

[JustMe]

Your research was very helpful, THANKS! Applying those numbers I think its actually going to be CLOSE! Let me show you why I think so. This will take some 'splainin'

Your study shows that Amazon was able to claim about 56% ($350M / $622M) of their VA in the year they became profitable (2003/04 vs 2019/2020 for Tesla). Your research further shows that Amazon was able to reduce VA by about 41.5% (from $1,496B in 2003 to $874B in 2004), in order to claim that $622B.

Applying those same percentages to Tesla's current VA balance of $1.81B, we can estimate they should be able to use about $750B of VA this year (the same 41.5%).

Further, we can estimate that could be split among Income and Sharholder equity at about 56%/44%, or $420B to Income and $330B to Shareholder Equity.

Given that $420B Income from VA in 2019, that implies Tesla would need approx. $547B in 2019Q4 Profits:

$420B (VA) -702(Q1) -408(Q2) + 143(Q3) = -$547B YTD​

How doable is this? Let's start with the biggest known source of likely addtional profit for Q4, which is the increase in Vehicles delivered (112K -97K) = 15K vehicles. Now we know that Tesla was profitable at the 97K delivery level in Q3, so we can say that all fixed costs (including production labor since there was no hiring to produce those addtional units) are already covered and any additional revenue from vehicle sales flows through directly to profit.

Let's pick an ASP per unit of $50K (refine this number from 2019Q3 if you'd like but this part is already very approx). If cost of materials is half (remember labor is already paid in full at 97K/qtr production), that's about $25K gross profit for each addtional car, or 15K cars * $25K/car ~ $375M addtional profit in 2019Q4 vs Q3.

So that leaves Tesla tantilizingly close to being net profitable for 2019 as a whole, in fact needing to find just ~$60M more in profits to be over the finish line.

Can Tesla find that $60M? You would think so. There's the $2K "performance boost" for available to the fleet of all AWD Models 3 ever produced. I've seen est'd $20M for that. There's carbon credits which are variable and DISCRETIONARY for Tesla. I think they claim just enough to become net profitable.

So there you have it. Just a few wild-ass assumptions and POOF! PROFITS! Cartman would be proud.

Cheers!

I think it’s fair to say that, if this does come to pass, Mark Spiegel and his ilk will go absolutely apoplectic and it would be a truly historic moment... A short burn to be remembered for all time...

Far in the future, tucked into a dusty corner of a repository of holy texts, a young scholar will one day come across this ancient passage...

And lastly, as foretold by members of the TMC, upon reaping heaps of revenue and recognition of carbon credits and other fancy stuff - did Tesla bring about a full year GAAP profit. And lo, their stock skyrocketed whilst talking heads were awed and perplexed. And how the cash did gallop from the greedy paws of the bitter meanies and into the purses of crafty dreamers. And how the memes did blossom and flow across the twitterverse. From that day forward, the epic rise of Tesla did ensue. And there was much rejoicing. Yay.

 

[Zaxxon]

All this talk of being profitable for 2019 and the S&P inclusion is getting me pretty f-ing excited. If it doesn’t happen then I’ll be disappointed even though it’s been a great quarter. I really shouldn’t get my hopes up too much.

None of us should be getting our hopes up for a 2019 full-year profit. It's not going to happen.

Note that I'd love to be wrong, but we've as a group gotten ourselves worked up before only to be disappointed. You'd think we'd learn. Especially this quarter, where we have a plethora of fantastic things that absolutely are going to be part of this Q's release. Record deliveries, with a drop in leasing. GF3 running, less than a year after 'muddy field-gate.' The Y entering production early. GF4 about to break ground. Cybertruck reservations out of this world. Semi coming along. Etc, etc, etc.

I appreciate the discussion, but I would hope we'd have heard from Tesla if there was a chance that this would surface... It's not like the delivery number we got was a big surprise to Tesla--it was right inline with their guidance, and not even the high end.

 

[mongo]

Unless they plan on going and starting up each car and charging them on a weekly basis, the batteries in those cars will be goners by the time they actually are ready to sell right???? As in degradation of the battery

Batteries not included.

Seriously though, if they can pull the pack back out, then they can leave the chassis and save on part's cost in the near term. Also delays dealing with battery supply issues.

 

[ggr]

I think it’s fair to say that, if this does come to pass, Mark Spiegel and his ilk will go absolutely apoplectic and it would be a truly historic moment... A short burn to be remembered for all time...

Far in the future, tucked into a dusty corner of a repository of holy texts, a young scholar will one day come across this ancient passage...

And lastly, as foretold by members of the TMC, upon reaping heaps of revenue and recognition of carbon credits and other fancy stuff - did Tesla bring about a full year GAAP profit. And lo, their stock skyrocketed whilst talking heads were awed and perplexed. And how the cash did gallop from the greedy paws of the bitter meanies and into the purses of crafty dreamers. And how the memes did blossom and flow across the twitterverse. From that day forward, the epic rise of Tesla did ensue. And there was much rejoicing. Yay.

"And the Lord did grin, and the people did feast upon the lambs, and stoats, and carp, and anchovies, and orangutans, and breakfast cereals, and fruit bats." -- MPFC, "The Holy Grail".

 

[JustMe]

Unless they plan on going and starting up each car and charging them on a weekly basis, the batteries in those cars will be goners by the time they actually are ready to sell right???? As in degradation of the battery

Can’t they just plug those thousands of cars into each other in an epic daisy chain and charge each other up?

jk, they’re hosed.

 

[ZeApelido]

It was one of the reasons I hesitated on sharing my thoughts regarding Deferred Taxes.
I did not want to get people's expectations up prior to earnings only to have a let down.
As I mentioned, it could be a Big Nothing Burger.
I finally decided to share it because a similar topic on early S&P inclusion was posted this weekend...
.... and I thought, even if the upside has low probability, the impact could be material. I did not want to keep potential
material information quiet from our members even if likelihood is low.

My recommendation to all is to stop the discussion on Deferred Taxes.
We covered all that there is to cover.
Let's stay quiet and see what's reported on Jan 29th.

Don't tease me bro.

 

[bhtooefr]

Keeping in mind that I actually agree that robotaxis aren't particularly practical/sustainable, there is a legal solution to the whole "carrying multiple child seats around and installing them in robotaxis" problem.

That is, child seats are mandated because of crashes. If the robotaxis have a sufficiently low crash rate, the child seat requirement could be removed.

Note, also, that child seats aren't required in regular - human-driven, no safer than a privately-owned car - taxis in most of the world due to that exact impracticality, as well as mass transit. So, if a robotaxi is classified as a taxi, in most of the world, it won't need child seats. (There would actually need to be lobbying for removing a child seat requirement in California, apparently, though.)

 

[anthonyj]

Buying Feb $1,000 calls

 

[StealthP3D]

If true, they're going to owe a fortune to the EU re: emissions this year.

Does the FCA agreement use all of the credits Tesla will likely generate?

 

[Rammstein]

Buying Feb $1,000 calls

God I hope you win big with this.

 

[jerry33]

It's almost too big of a disaster to believe it's real. I mean, tens of thousands of new cars sitting in the elements (in rented parking lots) for over a year while they wait for adequate software to be developed? I want to believe this is fake!

Well, maybe VW will get lucky with a big hail storm and they can collect on insurance. Because I can't see anyone wanting those cars for less than a 75% discount.

 

[HG Wells]

Does the FCA agreement use all of the credits Tesla will likely generate?

Oh yes, and then some.

 

[RobStark]

Most people don't have tools or samples.

Most people have "stuff" in their vehicles.

 

[StealthP3D]

Well, the announcement was a blunder either way. If there is a gaap profitability that is absolutely not the way to announce it.

Has anyone verified that the GAAP profitability announcement actually originated with the Tesla Truck Team? That it wasn't a fake?