Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[stef]

Glovis Cosmos entering port

 

[Matias]

ICO Zeebrugge, Belgium had to install 300 superchargers as part of the weekly 3000 cars Tesla contract. Charging to 80% at arrival. : teslamotors

They obviously are not superchargers, which would of course be dumb.

 

[Mike Ambler]

Well, in my experience as a car repair shop owner (a long time ago) sometimes it is as much a 100x. For example we sold some nuts and bolts for $ 0.50 which left the manufacturer for $ $0.005 according to our supplier's invoice (which he accidentally left in one of the shipments). We paid $ 0.5 for them.

Of course, I didn't want to mention the silly nut & bolt type mark ups

 

[cheshire cat]

Not sure if I missed this but of general interest I think. News | Electric Nation Update of survey results home charging

 

[Tslynk67]

There's some serious traction in pre-market, albeit on average volume. Is there news that we're unaware of?

 

[AlexS]

There's some serious traction in pre-market, albeit on average volume. Is there news that we're unaware of?

View attachment 376251

Canaccord Genuity Upgrades Tesla (TSLA) to Buy

 

[OPRCE]

You are speculating as to the motive of others and concluding that their argument must be based on vested interest. This is behavior similar to what you are arguing against... in implies bias.

1. Whereas I agree that I did posit a possible motive that is not the same as "concluding that their argument must be based on vested interest." I never reached that conclusion and frankly acknowledge I cannot know the inside of their secret minds. KarenRei OTOH has no problem jumping to definitive and extreme conclusions based on no evidence but much bitterfeels, which is what I pulled her up on.

On the contrary, there's some pretty compelling argument to be made that the energy -vs- power density differences between the packs (along with the reserve the Audi may have don't allow for the types of increases being claimed while at the same time providing similar cycle life.

2. I'd be delighted to see it ... please link or produce. Rest assured it will be treated without bias.

So, perhaps Audi has some breakthrough chemistry nobody else seems to be aware of. Possible, but not likely. The other likely tradeoff is cycle life, which given the more "niche" this car may be, likely smaller production volumes, and ostensibly the lesser likelihood that these cars will incur similar miles driven as their Tesla counterparts makes it very resonable that Audi may just be willing to "eat" the packs that need to be replaces under warrantly.

3. I have no idea how likely it is but other possible tradeoffs are volumetric energy density (Wh/l) and specific energy density (Wh/kg). If one or both of these qualities can [chemically] be traded up for a lower cell internal resistance it could make a huge difference in heat management/sustained charging rate, at the expense of the total cell content being larger/heavier than e.g. Tesla NCA.

4. I presume KarenRei is aware of this possibility, which is precisely why she so doggedly beats around the bush with meaningless gibberish about "power dense" cells (i.e. LTO), which is her way of evading to admit that the Audi NCM-622 cells are, from what little we do know [i.e. pack weight and LG CHEM heritage as per Bolt], indeed probably less energy dense than Tesla NCA. Her problem there is that she firmly concluded the opposite in order to jump to the prejudiced conclusion that Audi are "frying" their batteries, so now has dropped out of the discussion, presumably to evade further embarrassment.
[I have noted on another thread that she seems to suffer from a fanatical devotion to His Muskiness, coupled with the inability to admit any error, no matter how trivial]

5. I fail to see how having an expected production volume of ~60,000 p.a. [which is BTW > Model S] could lead Audi or indeed anyone to the conclusion that the cars will predominantly be driven at low mileage, thus allowing them to skimp on battery cooling in exchange for elevated in-warranty failures. If anything, given that their principle market is probably Germany and that there such high-class expensive vehicles predominantly tend to go to company fleets on new lease, they should have been expecting a higher than average mileage. IMHO that again would correspond with a design spec/clientele demanding high/repeatable recharge rates and the very respectable warranty provided.

If that indeed is the case that they are sacrificing cycle life for power density, then we aren't comparing apples-for-apples.

6. I believe you may mean energy density here; power density was never at issue [except for KarenRei's trailing it in her wake as a red herring].

7. Porsche have stated their PPE platform is designed firstly for high performance, as would be expected by their customer base. This leads to the proximate conclusion the Taycan will handle sustained top speeds on the Autobahn or Nürburgring Nordschleife without loss of power: see interview text here.

 

[gora321]

John Wilhite‏ @wilhitjb


And the $TSLA shorts lose another. First Citron Research, now Canaccord Genuity. Perhaps Needham will be next?

2:47 AM - 11 Feb 2019

 

[OPRCE]

Same was said about Jaguar’s batteries. Then years later we all know how inefficient Jaggy turned out to be. For a company to suddenly turn the corner after the largest con job in history (emissions cheat scandal), people here and everywhere else is prudent to be skeptical.

Fool me once shame on you, but you won’t fool me twice. I refuse to touch an Audi or any affiliate of VW with a stick.

1. I reckon being caught out in the Dieselgate affair would have made VAG all the more determined to repair their sullied reputation rather than embarrass themselves again right out the gate with another fiasco in the new EV direction they have chosen, even if it does cost them. Lutz famously made the argument that established OEMs will belatedly bring loss leaders to grab market share before turning a profit, and in the case of VW they if anyone can afford it.

2. I agree with being sceptical but not with jumping to conclusions based on emotion. In the same vein, if VAG's BEV products prove compelling/competitive, the customers will surely go for 'em irregardless of all their former sins.

 

[gora321]

Europe +2,83%. Don't tell to you know whom

 

[SPadival]

Response from Bertel Schmitt to the manager magazine article about Audi #etrongate

The problems are much deeper. Audi was the hotbed of cheating culture that brought #dieselgate. Its management is demoralized. Its top engineering ranks are gutted

On top, premium brands like Audi, BMW, Mercedes, ($TSLA?) feel the beginnings of a demographic earthquake about to rock the EU auto market: Wealthy customers retire, not enough young one to replace them

Discussion continues in this thread.

And.. Oh Hi Tweety (Bertel's mate Niedermeyer), we know you monitor this thread

 

[cheshire cat]

1. Whereas I agree that I did posit a possible motive that is not the same as "concluding that their argument must be based on vested interest." I never reached that conclusion and frankly acknowledge I cannot know the inside of their secret minds. KarenRei OTOH has no problem jumping to definitive and extreme conclusions based on no evidence but much bitterfeels, which is what I pulled her up on.



2. I'd be delighted to see it ... please link or produce. Rest assured it will be treated without bias.



3. I have no idea how likely it is but other possible tradeoffs are volumetric energy density (Wh/l) and specific energy density (Wh/kg). If one or both of these qualities can [chemically] be traded up for a lower cell internal resistance it could make a huge difference in heat management/sustained charging rate, at the expense of the total cell content being larger/heavier than e.g. Tesla NCA.

4. I presume KarenRei is aware of this possibility, which is precisely why she so doggedly beats around the bush with meaningless gibberish about "power dense" cells (i.e. LTO), which is her way of evading to admit that the Audi NCM-622 cells are, from what little we do know [i.e. pack weight and LG CHEM heritage as per Bolt], indeed probably less energy dense than Tesla NCA. Her problem there is that she firmly concluded the opposite in order to jump to the prejudiced conclusion that Audi are "frying" their batteries, so now has dropped out of the discussion, presumably to evade further embarrassment.
[I have noted on another thread that she seems to suffer from a fanatical devotion to His Muskiness, coupled with the inability to admit any error, no matter how trivial]

5. I fail to see how having an expected production volume of ~60,000 p.a. [which is BTW > Model S] could lead Audi or indeed anyone to the conclusion that the cars will predominantly be driven at low mileage, thus allowing them to skimp on battery cooling in exchange for elevated in-warranty failures. If anything, given that their principle market is probably Germany and that there such high-class expensive vehicles predominantly tend to go to company fleets on new lease, they should have been expecting a higher than average mileage. IMHO that again would correspond with a design spec/clientele demanding high/repeatable recharge rates and the very respectable warranty provided.



6. I believe you may mean energy density here; power density was never at issue [except for KarenRei's trailing it in her wake as a red herring].

7. Porsche have stated their PPE platform is designed firstly for high performance, as would be expected by their customer base. This leads to the proximate conclusion the Taycan will handle sustained top speeds on the Autobahn or Nürburgring Nordschleife without loss of power: see interview text here.

The boredom of this is at least proportional to the square of its length, even in pre market, perhaps there is a tech section in which it could find a home. Where's a good bird artist when you need one?

 

[BenPrice]

If anybody was in the mood to file an sec complaint this self confessed put option trader just admitted to stock manipulation.

 

[SebastianR]

1. I reckon being caught out in the Dieselgate affair would have made VAG all the more determined to repair their sullied reputation rather than embarrass themselves again right out the gate with another fiasco in the new EV direction they have chosen, even if it does cost them.

I admire your optimism. VW has deeply entrenched cultural issue around cheating. They don't see any of what they did as "cheating" they see it as technical optimisation to satisfy otherwise impossibly achievable targets. Seriously, dig around a little the amount of "not a big deal", "this was just a technical solution to a purely legal problem", "emissions thresholds are arbitrary and should not be followed", "this was self-defense against impossible to achieve EPA/CARB rules designed to harm German brands" is both astounding and shocking. There is a big debate in Germany now where mainstream parties argue that laws should not be followed if they harm the car industry. VW has not learned a thing if you ask me.

 

[bhtooefr]

I wish they'd stop putting PHEV's in with BEV's. PHEV's are NOT electric cars at all.

I disagree, depending on the PHEV. It's not a pure electric car, but...

If it's a BEVx/EREV-style PHEV like an i3 REx or a Volt/Ampera, most people only end up firing the ICE in extreme cold and when on long trips. So, for the vast majority of driving for their owners, it is an electric car.

Something like a Prius PHV/Prime... given how the modes work, I'd argue that the US-spec model can be an electric car (although only barely), whereas in the rest of the world (where EV mode is a suggestion, not a mandate), it's not.

And the German PHEVs definitely aren't electric cars.

Please correct me if I am wrong, but I believe the German car makers were able to help "improve" the German legislation, so the enabling of a special emissions test mode during testing was not actually illegal and that it was without significance what the actual emissions of the vehicle was, once the vehicle was out on the public roads.

So, what Volkswagen did (detecting the test and running in an emissions compliant mode during the test only) was not legal. AFAIK, running in an emissions compliant mode for the duration of the test and no longer is also not legal (something that has been done in both the US and EU with cheating vehicles).

What was legal, AFAIK, was the following:

• Special modes for preventing damage to the vehicle, with no constraints on what that meant, other than those conditions not occurring during the test. (Mercedes-Benz and Opel interpreted this as "anything below 15 °C could potentially damage the vehicle, so disable emissions control systems", and the German regulators told them not to do that in the future, but they weren't in trouble for it.)
• Generally changing emissions strategy during engine load/speed conditions never encountered during the test cycle. (Everyone was doing this, on all ICEs, not just diesel. Note that this is also legal in the US, with a huge caveat - if the automaker wants to do this, they must request approval for it from the EPA, and the EPA must be convinced that it won't have a high emissions impact. And, the EPA cycle has far more variance in engine load/speed than NEDC had.)
• Running maximum sidewall tire pressure during coastdown testing, instead of door sticker tire pressure (however, Volkswagen was cheating on their gasoline engines' fuel economy testing by running significantly over maximum sidewall tire pressure, and that was not OK - note that Mitsubishi was caught doing that in the Japanese market, and that's what lead to Nissan effectively buying out Mitsubishi Motors)
• Taping over body seams during coastdown testing
• Shutting off headlights during testing (this is a problem, because of daytime running light mandates - it's a condition that can never be encountered in the real world)
• Running lighter engine oil than specified (however, it must actually be engine oil - on the same gasoline engines where Volkswagen used massively overinflated tires, they cut the oil with diesel fuel to thin it out, and that's not OK either).
• Running the coastdown test downhill both ways (the NEDC coastdown test is required to be performed in both directions to remove wind and presumably slope error, but there was no requirement to actually do both directions on the same piece of pavement, only that the slope be a certain maximum and that the reverse direction be 180° from the forward direction. So, build test tracks that are downhill both ways.)

Of course, most of this stuff also can be applied to EVs, and could explain part of why NEDC range numbers for some EVs are so absolutely ludicrously optimistic, and on others are merely optimistic.

IIRC, the automakers were trying to get a lot of these cheats into WLTP, but they were trying to do that right as Dieselgate broke, which made it a really bad PR situation.

 

[shlokavica22]

2. I agree with being sceptical but not with jumping to conclusions based on emotion. In the same vein, if VAG's BEV products prove compelling/competitive, the customers will surely go for 'em irregardless of all their former sins.

When (if) VW are competitive enough in the EV market, there will be others competing against them. How long will take for some of their competitors to put an ad, reminding us all what a wonderful company VW's was for the last 10 years or so?

 

[Tslynk67]

Apologies for the CNBC link, but it's more on the Canaccord upgrade, which for once has been reported in a factual manner.

Tesla shares jump after Canaccord Genuity upgrades the stock and predicts 40% rally

Some highlights, they actually seem to get it...

Canaccord upgraded Tesla to buy from hold and raised its 12-month price target to $450 from $330.

"The EV penetration story is underappreciated by the Street," analyst Jed Dorsheimer said in a note to clients Monday. "We see a more stable 2019 with far fewer concerns for investors in the company."

"We view the recent string of price cuts as further proof that the cost cutting and right sizing that the company has undertaken are resulting in concrete movement towards the ultimate goal of an affordable $35,000 Model 3," Dorsheimer said. "With the strong operating cash flow generation of $1.23B and cash on the balance sheet of $3.7B, the liquidity concerns and convertible note repayment are no longer valid concerns in our view."

 

[gora321]

Steve Jobs‏ @tesla_truth
You can’t fool someone who has a Tesla into thinking it’s not amazing it’s right in front of us. You can fool peopl who don’t know any better but it’s right in front of our eyes every day

4:10 AM - 11 Feb 2019

 

[Tslynk67]

Steve Jobs‏ @tesla_truth
You can’t fool someone who has a Tesla into thinking it’s not amazing it’s right in front of us. You can fool peopl who don’t know any better but it’s right in front of our eyes every day

4:10 AM - 11 Feb 2019

Thanks, gora, for giving the heads-up on good Tweets - would be great if you could always give a direct link to the specific Tweet though, which you sometimes do, sometimes not

 

[Tslynk67]

Steve Jobs on Twitter