Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[LN1_Casey]

FYI; Alex on Twitter

There are 7 bombs to be exploded near GF4.

 

[Tslynk67]

Tesla downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at BNP Paribas?

All methods being brought to bear to save an options rout tomorrow...

Edit: article is behind pay-wall, but from what we can see on Google search, they've downgraded because they don't understand what they're doing anymore:

UPDATE: Exane BNP Paribas Downgrades Tesla (TSLA) to Neutral on 'uncomfortable' Story

4 hours ago - Yet the debate has shifted beyond the realms of the pure-BEV story to an energy & tech-play vision with which we are less comfortable.".

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Lot of dumping going on in premarket. Down 13,20 now

 

[EVMeister]

Tesla downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at BNP Paribas?

Meh. Who cares what the British National Party thinks about Tesla?

 

[ReflexFunds]

If I had to guess: Tesla will obviously create a self-contained payment system decoupled from global payment systems for Tesla Network, and will integrate all their other customer facing order systems into it as well.

I.e. Tesla intends to become a global bank as well.

Elon wanted X.com to become a bank in essence (later renamed to Paypal), but was vetoed by the other executives who considered it too risky a move.

Even with Tesla Network farther away, Tesla might be close to laying the groundwork for all that.

This will matter most for the full Tesla Network: AI-taxi users will be making small payments, and Tesla will want to cut out the middlemen banks that are eating up a significant percentage of small transaction revenue.

Tesla Network itself is such an incomprehensibly large profit opportunity that people often don't look past it, but in reality there is huge potential for further business opportunities on Tesla's platform.

Tesla will have a fleet of millions of mobile, intelligent, powerful robots with built in power plants.

These robots can contribute to Tesla's virtual electricity grid of stationary storage batteries (once they are beyond degradation issues)
Cybertrucks could have countless plug in attachments controlled by Tesla' neural net chips. The opportunities here are just too many to list. Think of attaching a robotic arm to a Cybertruck, operated by neural networks. This could be used for manual labour, to build houses, to repair roads and utilities. All autonomously.
Some of these functions might actually be easier to achieve than Robotaxis itself, so some of these opportunities could exist even without solving self driving.
Elon talking about Teslas soon starting to talk to pedestrians is also exciting. This is the first case of large scale neural networks interacting with the world - Tesla's cars are neural nets with bodies and they can potentially eventually learn through unsupervised learning and interaction with the world in a similar fashion to humans. This physical interaction is something that other tech companies lack on their quest for better AI, better natural language, causal understanding, image recognition etc.

 

[Tslynk67]

Lot of dumping going on in premarket. Down 13,20 now

Almost identical to the same time last week. Likely providing a the dip some have been looking for to jump back in, or grab some options.

Not an advice.

 

[Dare]

Despite the Asian markets falling, we have slightly green Nasdaq futures. Just the MM's trying to create negative movement.

However, as @Fact Checking pointed out yesterday, a lot of traders don't get access until 7AM, others 8AM, and this is when we'll see the true direction, might get some margin calls sending it the other way.

All that being said, I'm expecting a repeat of last week.

Rule of thumb, at least for options - buy on Friday, sell the following Wednesday midday.

Last week, at least for me, it was buy on Thursday. I was able to snag 75 more shares at $498.

 

[KarenRei]

Economics: a hypothetical fuel-cell system that in 5 years reaches cost parity with today's BEV system is effectively dead today already.
My prediction: BMW consumers are SO going to love playing Russian roulette with 700-bar hydrogen tanks...

The invisible, odorless gas that knocks you out in a couple of minutes flat, the invisible hydrogen fires that emit ultraviolet radiation, or just the pure kinetic energy BMW HYDROGEN FUN that a potentially catastrophically failing of a 700-bar hydrogen tank could mean - the hyper-sonic shrapnel, the destruction, the mutiliation - it's all true.

Also, cities will love the BMW hydrogen fun as well. This was the aftermath of the explosion an estimated ~7 kg of hydrogen in Norway, caused by a hydrogen tank leak

It's worth pointing out that 7kg is a single car's worth (for example, the latest Mirai holds 6,33kg). That's the damage from a single car's worth of hydrogen going off.

Anyone who thinks "hydrogen is safe" should read NASA's hydrogen handling guidelines; it'll correct them of this notion.

 

[FrankSG]

Tesla will have a fleet of tens of millions of mobile, intelligent, powerful robots with built in power plants.

FTFY

 

[jbcarioca]

I don't disagree - but there is a need for Tesla to actually decouple their consumer flows from payment systems, and I don't think they should embrace any particular third party service but should roll their own. (Seeded through acquisition, if needed.)

I.e. 5% innovation, 95% hard work - and they have both the consumer, wealth, reliability and high retention rates to get something rather good off the ground.

I agree with you. However, partly due to the arcane and sometimes local rules (e.g. in the US there historically has been no Federal insurance regulation. It has been left to state-by-state. Many of the most ripe opportunities lie in the murky world of reinsurance, reserve management as well as the very definition of "insurance" which itself varies dramatically jurisdiction by jurisdiction.
[ More than two decades of my life was devoted to combing through regulations, risk management tools and practices, then finding ways to do 'the impossible'.]

The real problem with "rolling their own" is that the contribution to Tesla's mission of doing that is not proportional to the effort needed. Further, most innovation is severely constrained by the incomprehensible quiltwork of sometimes conflicting tax and regulatory regimes. All that destroys scalability and forces high bureaucratic content. Automation helps (imagine Texas auto taxes without automation, more than 300 tax jurisdictions that sometimes tax on vehicle location, some on owner location, some on place of sale, some of place of registration. Now imagine how productive it would be to spend Elon time on such an issue.)

I am convinced that much of the Tesla opportunity comes from. completely redefining the problems. Thus acquistions would impede progress, just as we already see from the California Tesla insurance filing which was a generic cut and paste.

 

[MABMAB]

FYI; Alex on Twitter

There are 7 bombs to be exploded near GF4.

Stop it, too sensational.
Old ww2 stuff, common

 

[LN1_Casey]

Tesla will have a fleet of millions of mobile, intelligent, powerful robots with built in power plants.

Do you want the terminator to happen? Because that's how it starts.

 

[KarenRei]

Stop it, too sensational.
Old ww2 stuff, common

That's literally what the linked tweet says. Did you not read it?

----
7 WWII Bombs to be removed with a controlled explosion

Its a standard procedure that happens quite often in Germany.
----

 

[lklundin]

​

Exactly. And I figure that for every $1 of market cap that a legacy automaker loses Tesla should be able to pickup ~$2 in market cap. (It probably isn't that exactly, but it will be more because of Tesla's vertical integration.)

What I fear is that it will snowball. Are there enough shared suppliers that there is a risk that when one legacy automaker goes under that it could cause some suppliers to go under which will put pressure on other legacy automakers and it could just go out of control. (We've recently seen a wiring harness supplier go under haven't we?)

That would be Schlemmer, headquartered just outside Munich. They filed for bankruptcy in December,

Insolvenz bei Schlemmer: Keine Kündigungen geplant

 

[MABMAB]

That's literally what the linked tweet says. Did you not read it?

----
7 WWII Bombs to be removed with a controlled explosion

Its a standard procedure that happens quite often in Germany.
----

It’s not what it said here though

MODERATOR NOTE TO ALL:

The above is EXACTLY the unproductive kind of one-upmanship that is truly unnecessary.
This forum is NOT a third-grade debate class. Sit on your hands if you’ve nothing conducive to intelligent conversation.

 

[Chickenlittle]

That's literally what the linked tweet says. Did you not read it?

----
7 WWII Bombs to be removed with a controlled explosion

Its a standard procedure that happens quite often in Germany.
----

One found near London last month. I find it in readable that they are still finding them. It didn’t even make the news (I found out from mother in law who almost didn’t make flight to visit here).

 

[jhm]

For a profitable company growing fast I’m not sure that static “trading range” is a thing. It would need to include some function of time. A year from now the cake will be 50% bigger. There is no logic to drawing horizontal lines on a stock chart, or even diagonal straight lines, since the growth compounds.

Edit: perhaps diagonal straight lines on a log chart would work.

We'll see. So far Tesla appears to be jumping into a new orbit. Even if the new band is diagonal, we seem to be jumping into a new pair of diagonal lines. The market does not seem to know yet where we encounter that upper line.

 

[HG Wells]

Three more cities ban travel. Shops ordered to close.

Similar measures will take effect from Friday in the nearby cities of Huanggang and Ezhou. Theaters, internet cafes and other entertainment centers were also ordered closed, further increasing the economic costs of the response to the outbreak.

SEE
Coronavirus: China shuts down 3 cities home to 18M as viral outbreak kills 17, sickens over 550

 

[printf42]

FYI; Alex on Twitter

There are 7 bombs to be exploded near GF4.

Breaking:
Several old WWII bombs found around Tesla new Gigafactory construction site, authorities are trying to figure out who is responsible, meanwhile the factory will stay unproductive, expected to remain so for at least a year.

/s

 

[sparcs]

Mercedes halves EV production target due to battery shortage - Manager Magazin

Daimler has been forced to reduce production targets for its Mercedes-Benz EQC electric car from about 60,000 to 30,000 this year, due to a supply shortage of battery cells from LG Chem, Manager Magazin said on Thursday.

Daimler wanted to sell around 25,000 EQC vehicles in 2019, but only managed to build around 7,000 Manager Magazin said.

Not sure if this second part is even true, but of course they have to blame Tesla for their botched ramp of the EQC:

Daimler's works council chief Michael Brecht told Manager Magazin that one of the reasons the company is struggling to meet battery demand is because Tesla bought Grohmann Engineering, a battery automation specialist hired by Mercedes-Benz to build up its own battery manufacturing capacity.