Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cattledog]

Very informative. Invest accordingly.

 

[Nocturnal]

I don't believe him. I think it's obvious that Starlink will be used by Tesla vehicles eventually. They'll need universal connectivity for level 4 FSD for quite a while. There will be "driver centers" with Tesla people ready to take over in situations the vehicles can't deal with. Examples include such things as law enforcement wanting to talk to the driver, total obstruction of sensors rendering self-driving impossible, severe damage to the vehicle.

Laws (at least in some places) will require that action can be taken under such circumstances and Tesla will have to have some way of connecting to the vehicle. Starlink solves the problem and will be comparatively cheap for Tesla. You don't need lots of bandwidth, just a connection. And that means you can get away with a smaller antenna if you want.

Yeah, I think remote control is a no-brainer for the true edge cases. Far cheaper for a $15 an hour employee to log into a car and help it get going than to send a truck with 2 guys.

With the massive increase in share price and the CNBC talking heads no longer shouting "Bankwupt" every chance the could, will this bring in even more buyers. I've heard from random people, what will you do if they go out of business, and still have one at work who always puts Tesla down, maybe this will change a few more minds.

Yeah, I shared earlier a perfect example of a friend that wanted one but was coached by others that Tesla would be bankrupt and he would be SOL. Fortunately he listened to me. ​

 

[bhtooefr]

Sorry if another member has raised this question already. What might be new or better in the MY that can account for estimated range going up by 35 miles? That is not a "we tweaked the motor control algorithms" to get a few percent better efficiency scale improvement! Perhaps one last significant improvement to their pre Maxwell battery chemistry making it's first appearance in MY?

There's a few things going on.

The Model Y was unveiled in March 2019, and estimates would likely have been based on the current state of the art for the Model 3. In March 2019, a Model 3 LR AWD had 310 miles of range. It now has 322 miles of range (+3.9%), and the Performance with 18" wheels is tested at 332 miles of range (+7.1%), although derated to 322.

Then, you've got potential weight savings from the 4-piece cast rear structure, you've got rumors of a heat pump (greatly improved performance on the Cold FTP test), aerodynamics are locked in and therefore estimates of aerodynamic performance don't need to be conservative any more, you may have slight efficiency gains from the new electrical system, etc., etc.

Plus, there could be improvements to the charging system (as the EPA test cycles test that), vampire load (as there's an overnight rest before the test, which would cover vampire loads), batteries as you point out, motors, etc., etc. Doesn't take many small 1% improvements to get to 12.5%, when you're already starting from 3.9% or 7.1%.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Sorry if another member has raised this question already. What might be new or better in the MY that can account for estimated range going up by 35 miles? That is not a "we tweaked the motor control algorithms" to get a few percent better efficiency scale improvement! Perhaps one last significant improvement to their pre Maxwell battery chemistry making it's first appearance in MY?

I would be very surprised if the battery packs are not exactly the same as Model 3.

I think it is likely due to better work on powertrain efficiency, vehicle weight and drag coefficient.
About 10 miles of the upgrade is due to improvements already pushed to Model 3, but the remaining 25 miles is likely Model Y design improvements.
It is also possible some of these will be pushed to Model 3 before the start of Model Y deliveries in March .

 

[Artful Dodger]

I understand where you're coming from, and I don't entirely disagree, but have you seen any of his recent battery videos in the past few months? He did a couple of very well researched ones. I have to admit I didn't dig deep into the research behind them myself, so I can't say with 100% certainty that they are accurate, but the amount of research he put into those is extremely impressive.

I suggest you give some of these a watch before completely writing them off:

<CLIPS redacted>

He also has more older videos about Maxwell that are old news at this point.

I also doubt Elon personally spends much, if any, time on TMC. If he did, we'd better stop posting this much, because with this kind of volume of posts, Elon is not going to be able to get any work done.

Maybe he might have an intern/assistant skim through it for him, and make a collection of a handful of top posts each day.

Let's just note that there are ZERO professional working scientists who have reviewed the Goodenough paper from 2018 and been able to demonstrate that the REDOX reaction produces the claimed voltage. No lab has reproduced the results. Science?

I can direct you to one published review from a working scientist. They give deferrence to Goodenough because of his past contributions, but you should be aware that he is NOT the lead researcher for that paper. It is not primarily his work, but used for PR.

I've watched all Gali's videos. They are full of errors, bad assumptions, and unsupported claims. Did you watch Gali's first video on Maxwell when they became a hot topic? Where he was telling us all how Supercapacitors are the future of EVs? He's like a 1st yr sci student / home hobbist at best, and his videos are designed to harvest 'views' revenue on Youtube, not to communicate science. You should NOT be getting ideas from him. Read som ACTUAL RESEARCH instead.

Let's take this off-line. Just too much wrong with his info to discuss any further here

 

[Nocturnal]

Before things go crazy again I'd like to take the chance to thank everyone here for their insights and knowledge. I'm a fairly smart guy but I'm consistently humbled by the vast knowledge here and I've learned so much in my time on the forum. It's also a pretty nice/friendly group which on it's own is hard to find.

Cheers to the LONGS!

 

[Chickenlittle]

I am very surprised we have not heard from Chronos lately. Have I missed it? I remember him touting Alcoa 1 week before large drop in stock then next week revealing he was selling his Alcoa stock because he believed it would drop. Is he quiet because he has already covered? Why isn’t he trying to defend his stake or at least encouraging others to short at this level. I doubt CNBC is not letting him on, he has always been allowed on when he wants

 

[AlexS]

Sorry if another member has raised this question already. What might be new or better in the MY that can account for estimated range going up by 35 miles? That is not a "we tweaked the motor control algorithms" to get a few percent better efficiency scale improvement! Perhaps one last significant improvement to their pre Maxwell battery chemistry making it's first appearance in MY?

Havent checked, but maybe they somehow designed it to have a lower weight than Model3

 

[Dare]

Crow for breakfast


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-earnings-win-praise-even-from-doubters-we-fully-admit-things-are-better-than-we-expected-2020-01-30?mod=mw_latestnews

 

[EVNow]

Giga Berlin is expected to start production mid 2021 if there are no hiccups, but they've stated they will start with Model Y production, so M3 production at Giga Berlin might very well not start until mid 2022. This is two and a half years away. Lower prices due to localized production should also further increase demand in EU at that point.

No doubt before GF3 and GF4 fully ramp up there will be production constraint. But then, the constraint could also be because of battery - not just auto. It might also be easier to increase production in GF3 compared to Fremont and supply ROW from there.

I'd rather Tesla concentrate on CT instead of making complex and difficult changes in Fremont to increase production marginally. The basic assumption being it is not easy to increase production in Fremont for 3+Y beyond 10k/wk.

 

[Todd Burch]

Crow for breakfast


Tesla earnings win praise even from doubters: ‘We fully admit things are better than we expected’

They're basically saying "we admit we were wrong. We underestimated Tesla. But the stock is overvalued."

So...

"Sorry, I was wrong, but I was not wrong."

LOL. They STILL aren't getting it.

 

[Nocturnal]

No doubt before GF3 and GF4 fully ramp up there will be production constraint. But then, the constraint could also be because of battery - not just auto. It might also be easier to increase production in GF3 compared to Fremont and supply ROW from there.

I'd rather Tesla concentrate on CT instead of making complex and difficult changes in Fremont to increase production marginally. The basic assumption being it is not easy to increase production in Fremont for 3+Y beyond 10k/wk.

The people who want a truck but don't believe in pre-ordering are going to be very disappointed when they realize they can't buy until 3 years after launch.

 

[SpaceCash]

1.5 Mill traded before the bell. Just crazy

 

[keydiver]

Actually I curious as to why Plaid is only coming at the end of the year, seems to me they are working through a systematic step by step plan... and some things are going to take time.. If I had to guess Plaid is the new Maxwell battery.

I actually propose that the Plaid S is delayed due to issues integrating the "alien technology" with our crude earth tech.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Wedbush up to $710 and floating a "could go to $1000" comment if China goes well.

What exactly is the value of these "analysts"?

 

[Mkorpal]

Sudden surge just before open. This is going to be interesting.

 

[reardencode]

They'll have to take the 3's body line down to do change stamped part out for castings, and there will be interruptions in GA (although they have two lines) for other parts. I expect they'll do this once Y production is in full swing (and all production bugs are ironed out); they wouldn't want to do that now.

I think a major reason they'd want to do this (with respect to casting) is it'd free up more press capacity to increase Y production. With things like wiring and the like, that'd be a straightforward COGS reduction.

But again, need to debug the process on the Y first.

There one other outside chance: they may have already made the changes to the 3s that they are producing.

 

[Nocturnal]

I just sold my $690 2/7 call. Doubled my money. Keeping my ITM calls for 2/14 and May, as well as my lotto ticket calls for 1/31 and 2/7 just in case it goes nuts. Time to buckle the F up folks.

My robinhood daily return graph is a perfect backwards L lol.

Wedbush up to $710 and floating a "could go to $1000" comment if China goes well.

What exactly is the value of these "analysts"?

I'm keeping my trading profits in my account and I'll definitely back up the track on shares the first time we see a dip in the next couple months, assuming we do. ​

 

[SMAlset]

They're basically saying "we admit we were wrong. We underestimated Tesla. But the stock is overvalued."

So...

"Sorry, I was wrong, but I was not wrong."

LOL. They STILL aren't getting it.

Yes we’ve heard this capitulation in the past but ultimately their viewpoint hasn’t changed much over all and they still maintain their ratings. Gotta wonder how long some clients hang in their with their advice and lose out.

 

[Jayjs20]

No offence, but I think we've had this discussion before, no?

Yes we have. I was waiting for someone to rub some salt in.

No problem though, I already bailed. Thank god for that dip just now. Saved me about 30-40k.