Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[brantse]

Cramer just teased "today on Mad Money, I'm going to talk about the greatest technology stock you've ever seen, and it's on wheels"!

 

[henchman24]

After sleeping on it a night and re-reading the report, I don't feel Q1 will be all that good for Tesla. They cautioned with ramps there is a chance they won't be profitable, and they seem to be timing the battery event around Q1. It might just be too much reading of the tea leaves, but I think we could see the shorts preparing for that last battle in late March/early April. I'm feeling more confident in the company long-term though. It will only be a blip in the long term.

 

[SpaceCash]

?

I see 5.10M shares traded in the first 15minutes.

I'm looking at Yahoo Finance volume. What's your source? (I'd like to be wrong, but I woudn't want to learn wrong facts)

EDIT: @FrankSG also has noted this. Don't trust your source @Artful Dodger (and please let us know where those numbers come from, so we know what source to avoid).

Correct. We're at 8.5M volume for the day so far

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Yes. But then there is cost. Starlink, like all satellite services WILL have bandwidth constraints, and thus probably either data caps or expensive plans. It isn’t obvious that Starlink 5G backhaul, which would use a lot of continuous bandwidth, would be cheaper than fiber.

For the Tesla WiFi, maybe Elon can talk to the big boss over at SpaceX to get special pricing.........

 

[Sunlight]

Just been scanning through the pages of glee and reflection so I may have missed these points by others.

Clearly there are going to be a lot of shocked and disgruntled bears around but I wonder how Mercedes are feeling? Considering the problems Mercedes seems to be having with the EQC, they must be rueing their disinvesting from Tesla after 'saving' them at some point!

Secondly remembering the very painful Model 3 production ramp, we can be grateful that it was overseen by a mad, workaholic genius and resolved in a few months. This is because Tesla is laser focussed on EVs and batteries and production techniques. On the contrary the OEMs are just entering production/product/bankwupcy ICE-age/EV hell which will last for far longer, maybe years, and may have fatalities.....

And it seems it will overseen by too many headless chickens and sheep!

 

[FrankSG]

?

I see 5.10M shares traded in the first 15minutes.

I'm looking at Yahoo Finance volume. What's your source? (I'd like to be wrong, but I woudn't want to learn wrong facts)

EDIT: @FrankSG also has noted this. Don't trust your source @Artful Dodger (and please let us know where those numbers come from, so we know what source to avoid).

He was just a little early, that's all. We're rapidly closing in on 10M now

Let's see how long the option sellers can defend $650. Huge sell order just now as soon as it hit $650.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

“Every disadvantage has an advantage”, Johan Cruijff used to say. Today that applies to Tesla: the market didn’t attach much value to FSD yet. Luckily that means that the FSD delay doesn’t really impact SP at the moment.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Just been scanning through the pages of glee and reflection so I may have missed these points by others.

Clearly there are going to be a lot of shocked and disgruntled bears around but I wonder how Mercedes are feeling? Considering the problems Mercedes seems to be having with the EQC, they must be rueing their disinvesting from Tesla after 'saving' them at some point!

Secondly remembering the very painful Model 3 production ramp, we can be grateful that it was overseen by a mad, workaholic genius and resolved in a few months. This is because Tesla is laser focussed on EVs and batteries and production techniques. On the contrary the OEMs are just entering production/product/bankwupcy ICE-age/EV hell which will last for far longer, maybe years, and may have fatalities.....

And it seems it will overseen by too many headless chickens and sheep!

I suspect the ceo and chairman of Mercedes is not sleeping on the factory floor getting over the problems

 

[FrankSG]

Wasn't it a few days after last ER where the reported numbers were challenged?
Epecting no different, hope it's all on solid ground but no reason to doubt either. Its about they spin the do everytime.

Read through Mark B. Spiegel's Twitter feed. You'll find that the arguments from TSLAQ on Twitter are now pretty much exclusively centered around fraud. What other bear argument is left?

 

[ninpb]

"I have never seen actually such a level demand at this this -- we've never seen anything like it basically. I think we will make as about as many as we can sell for many years. So -- as many -- we'll sell as many as we can make, it's going to be pretty nut."

So is he saying the number of deposits was above what they expected for the CT or above the numbers of the 3 and Y?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

10M shares by 10:15am. Funny thing is, tomorrow's margin call is gonna be even worse.

 

[StealthP3D]

Sorry if another member has raised this question already. What might be new or better in the MY that can account for estimated range going up by 35 miles? That is not a "we tweaked the motor control algorithms" to get a few percent better efficiency scale improvement! Perhaps one last significant improvement to their pre Maxwell battery chemistry making it's first appearance in MY?

That's a significant range increase of around 12 percent. I think weight improvements could only account for 1-2% so where to get 10% improvement?

Maybe 3% improvement could come from motor and software tweaks. So I think you must be right, that's a battery with more useable kWh's.

 

[FrankSG]

After sleeping on it a night and re-reading the report, I don't feel Q1 will be all that good for Tesla. They cautioned with ramps there is a chance they won't be profitable, and they seem to be timing the battery event around Q1. It might just be too much reading of the tea leaves, but I think we could see the shorts preparing for that last battle in late March/early April. I'm feeling more confident in the company long-term though. It will only be a blip in the long term.

I agree that profits could be weak. However, I think deliveries and revenues will be solid. There are a number of things pointing towards that, but a big one from ER that I haven't seen mentioned yet elsewhere is this comment on the call:

We'll likely hold Battery Day after Q1, because EoQ is likely going to be just as hectic as last quarter.

I don't see how these could be logistics issues like Q1 last year, so I'd imagine they foresee a hectic EoQ delivery rush again to get as many vehicles to customers as they can.

I also think the market will likely go a little easy on Tesla in Q1, because Q1'19 is still fresh in their mind. It doesn't take much to post a stellar Q1'20 compared to that.

 

[Todd Burch]

I perused Twitter and you may be shocked to hear that the TSLA Debbie downers are not impressed by the report.

I am impressed by how light their empty wallets are, though.

 

[EVNow]

I perused Twitter and you may be shocked to hear that the TSLA Debbie downers are not impressed by the report.

I wonder whether the guy who shorted at $180 is still short.

Afterall, I had bought some at $370 and was still long at $180 !

ps : My 401k & IRA stock has much higher avg cost.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

What exactly is the value of these "analysts"?

I have a friend in the fund business. He said analysts are basically marketing figures for their firm/fund. Their recommendations are a form of advertisement to get business. Their ratings, positive or negative, are just attempts to curry favor with those they are trying to get business from. They are not analytical master minds. They are glorified carnival barkers.

 

[dw4ngg]

Sold a lot of my shorter term options this morning in the 640-650 range.... just have boring shares and mid-to-LEAP term calls now...

 

[lklundin]

"Mr Crusher, give us a superior curve"
- Cmdr Will Riker

The illustrator of that book you just recommended evidently also knows "a superior curve".

 

[Chickenlittle]

[

Well my account is up by almost my yearly salary even before I am out of bed this morning. It is a sweet feeling of vindication for having to listen to all the snide comments from colleagues for last 6 years!

i wish that were true for me but I never had a salary of over 2 million dollars

 

[mickificki]

Gene Munster article:

Tesla: How Much Is the Future of Transportation Worth? | Loup Ventures