Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Opus BC fan]

Moot point -- macros are down.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

You'll find that the arguments from TSLAQ on Twitter are now pretty much exclusively centered around fraud

They must be surprised how everyone that has bought a Tesla must also be in on the fraud. And now it is global in scale. A true world wide conspiracy.

 

[Zero CO2]

Yes. But then there is cost. Starlink, like all satellite services WILL have bandwidth constraints, and thus probably either data caps or expensive plans. It isn’t obvious that Starlink 5G backhaul, which would use a lot of continuous bandwidth, would be cheaper than fiber.

not sure about all this Starlink talk and 5G (as Elon bit$% slapped AJ from MS for his dumb question ) ... by definition 5G is low latency/ high bandwidth there will be significantly more 5G antenna's hence deeper and more fiber optic penetration not less.... the round trip delay to the satellites will not work for many applications ... 5G will be an enabler of autonomous vehicles

 

[SageBrush]

Read through Mark B. Spiegel's Twitter feed. You'll find that the arguments from TSLAQ on Twitter are now pretty much exclusively centered around fraud. What other bear argument is left?

That is not a bear argument, that is a fool trying to excuse his hedge fund performance to his clients.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Listening to the analyst questions on the call yesterday, they reminded me a lot of Carl the Greenskeeper in Caddyshack talking about chinch bugs and manganese in an attempt to sound intelligent.

 

[StealthP3D]

I've watched all Gali's videos. They are full of errors, bad assumptions, and unsupported claims. Did you watch Gali's first video on Maxwell when they became a hot topic? Where he was telling us all how Supercapacitors are the future of EVs? He's like a 1st yr sci student / home hobbist at best, and his videos are designed to harvest 'views' revenue on Youtube, not to communicate science. You should NOT be getting ideas from him. Read som ACTUAL RESEARCH instead.

Gali is not the best analyst for the nuts and bolts of the financials or the technology but he has vision lacking in other analysts. He gets it while many don't. I think he sees the future better than most (again, not in the specifics of the tech or the financial details). And vision matters here more than with most stocks.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I imagine we'll get to the point where the stock is only up $10 in a day and start worrying that something is wrong.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Another day for the history books.

I agree to the assessment of most that the numbers look good but they did not surprise me at all. Instead I expected a higher forecast than the 500k for 2020 and believe its underpromising to enable them to overdeliver in 2020. What surprised me was the quite hefty reaction of the stock which I naturally love.

The explanation has been stated here already which is that the broader market never has seen what many bright people here at TMC predicted and which really is obvious looking at the information available and I speak about the last years as well. That may sound arrogant but I am still puzzled how people could overlook the obvious.

Clearly media, analysts, shorts and bears have not expected that and the call as well as the numbers do not give really any fundamental opportunity to argue against Tesla. They used all what they had the last years to find the negative and the development proved them wrong while the hard numbers prove Elon right. It will get much better from here and the 2nd half 2020 will be fun.

One particular factor I really enjoyed is the 'boring execution' of what has been said before. While the financial health is getting now more obvious we have not heard a lot of future predictions other than and thats very exciting, the battery drive train and battery improvements on costs, capacity and performance. IMO that alone is a killer for all other BEV manufacturers as we won't see Tesla just twice as good as a Taycan but maybe soon trice or more. Thats impressive and exciting together and will Tesla lift on another level. Its gonna be hard for any other manufacturer to sell BEVs with such a technology lead of Tesla and unfortunately or fortunately based on your perspective that will mean a stronger pressure on ICE with predicted merger, bail out or even bankruptcy.

Also, we have seen more a team effort at the call and not only Elon standing in the limelight which is another positive. Would be good for him not being all the time that exposed and there has been moments in the call where Elons emotions went high, which I fully understand but Analysts don't. So if I say boring then I mean that emotions are usually not well received although many here including me like them.

Big Kudos to the retail investor community from Elon about our ability to get thinks right. It's a justified statement and also explains his preference of having Retail questions in calls. Also his continues push to e.g. podcasters and youtubers to get the message out is a sign of his appreciation of the work we all do daily and in return not surprisingly understanding Tesla much better than most. Thats an asset which no other company I know has including Apple or its like.

Its gonna be an exciting trading day today but much more important is that this is a fundamentally triggered justified stock price rise and not a bubble or just driven by short covering. Sure, people argue against the market valuation already today and yesterday but they don't understand that this are factored in improvements of Tesla growing into one if not the largest automotive/technology/energy company globally.

My trading strategy is boring and I told everybody before that swing trading is IMO very risky as you may get it right but more because of being lucky than right. Its hard to differentiate the two at Wall Street. Many who thought a pattern from the past will repeat in the future did sell waiting for a dip after ER and are now in an uncomfortable situation. Sure you can have a trading depot and play with it but for me leverage was more important and I did go to my very maximum long time ago and can claim to have done everything right. Sometimes the most hard thing when investing is to do nothing and stick to a strategy.

I recommended in the past when we have been below $200 to stay calm and look at that what I call 'inner value' and I do now the same. Emotions won't help you to win anything trading so be happy if you did it right but avoid to act much unless its a part of your defined longer strategy. We may see the market overdoing it in 2020 and corrections and consolidations which means again nothing because what counts is that Tesla does execute on the plan and they do that just fine.

Enjoy the ride!

Just to emphasize and extend your argument. The market has now grudgingly accepted that Tesla is a real car company and will sell and produce cars. But we know that Tesla is more than that. The next shoe to drop will be the dawning market realization that Tesla will eventually grow big enough to bankrupt pretty much all other car manufacturers until and unless they start a serious in house battery cell and battery pack development capability (and secure raw materials, and build battery factories, etc).

How big does Tesla have to get to start putting even more serious financial pressure on the big car companies? Let’s look at their expected growth, at 40% per year (Elon is hoping for 50%):

2020: 500,000 vehicles
2021: 700,000 vehicles
2022: 980,000 vehicles
2023: 1.4m vehicles

During these years, expect VW, Ford and GM and the others to start shutting down factories. I wonder if Tesla will start acquiring entire car companies? Probably not, it isn’t Elon’s MO. That’s one reason he needs to stay as CEO, another CEO could easily make that kind of strategic blunder of buying a car company.

 

[EV forever]

"I have never seen actually such a level demand at this this -- we've never seen anything like it basically. I think we will make as about as many as we can sell for many years. So -- as many -- we'll sell as many as we can make, it's going to be pretty nut."

So is he saying the number of deposits was above what they expected for the CT or above the numbers of the 3 and Y?

When they released the CT, I think even Elon had doubts that it would be accepted by general truck-loving customers. He has been taken by surprise on how well it was accepted and the shear volume of reservations. Plus most reservations were for the higher priced models! So I would think the numbers are well above 3 and Y

 

[ninpb]

Listening to the analyst questions on the call yesterday, they reminded me a lot of Carl the Greenskeeper in Caddyshack talking about chinch bugs and manganese in an attempt to sound intelligent.

I believe that was what Adam Jonas was trying to do when asking about starlink.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Besides ARK, who’s even attempted to answer that question?

Practically everyone is out of their element when trying to conceptualize Tesla and its future value. EMPIRE. That’s where you *start*. Mark my words.

Lol, another stunning example of the famed "Cunning-Krugerrand Effect" -- Shortzes need not worry, they're immune to reason.

Cheers!

 

[Todd Burch]

So when firms determine whether margin calls should be issued, do they look at closing prices, intra-day prices, after-hours, etc?

We opened today at 580. If they only consider the opening/closing price as a trigger for margin calls, we could see additional action tomorrow that we don't get today. In other words, today could just be the bump due to the ER...then margin call impacts come tomorrow and into next week. Maybe.

 

[SageBrush]

Gene Munster article:

Tesla: How Much Is the Future of Transportation Worth? | Loup Ventures

Munster is interesting, and while I would not call him knowledgeable about Tesla, he is two cuts above the generic 'analyst.'

 

[jerry33]

I do think Starlink is a natural fit for providing wifi at Supercharger locations.

But it baffles me that you think people will be watching movies (much) while charging. Our Model 3's charge so fast there is simply not time to pick a movie to watch, let alone watch it. Our Model 3's don't need a charge until we have been driving for hours on the Interstate and by then we need to relieve our bladders and get a quick snack. By the time we are able to do that, the car is charged and ready to go on the next leg of our journey.

When are people going to find time to watch movies while Supercharging?

Heck, there's normally not even enough time to watch a sit-com while charging in a 2013 S. Typically it's ready to go, or almost ready, by the time we do a pit stop and buy a drink. Eventually, the movies will be for the kids in the back seat, but they're not there yet. Movies will be okay for camping, but often there is not connectivity at campgrounds and RV parks. If you want a use case for Starlink+Tesla, those are it.

 

[ggies07]

Cramer just teased "today on Mad Money, I'm going to talk about the greatest technology stock you've ever seen, and it's on wheels"!

 

[Fact Checking]

Spoiler: OT: off topic reply to Cosmacelf about Starlink economics

Yes. But then there is cost. Starlink, like all satellite services WILL have bandwidth constraints, and thus probably either data caps or expensive plans. It isn’t obvious that Starlink 5G backhaul, which would use a lot of continuous bandwidth, would be cheaper than fiber.

In the race for bandwidth between terrestrial services (fiber) and Starlink the physics and economics of space based Internet weighs heavily in Starlink's favor:

• Every single Starlink launch extends Starlink's bandwidth by 1,000,000 Mbits (!). That's roughly the bandwidth consumed by 7 million parallel Voice over IP phone calls. (!) Individual Starlink satellites will likely be more powerful with time, so the per launch bandwidth will go up and the per launch costs will go down as SpaceX's launch operations mature.
• The Starlink constellation can access every single location along its orbit. It's a 'virtual fiber optical cable' between (almost) arbitrary two places on Earth that have an inexpensive "pizza box" Starlink receiver.
  
• I.e. the 1 TBit of bandwidth launched into orbit yesterday was functionally very similar to building a 1 TBit fiber backhaul to every single location on Earth.
• The Starship launch system will be able to launch satellites significantly cheaper than a Falcon 9 launch, and it can launch about an order of magnitude higher mass into LEO: 100 tons. Starship will be able to launch hundreds (about 540) Starlink satellites in a single launch, at ridiculously low launch costs below $10m.
• That's a launch cost of $20,000 per satellite - much less than the buildout of a single 5G cellular tower, and with much lower maintenance costs. The Starlink constellation's costs will be dominated by the costs of the satellites themselves - which will benefit from volume manufacturing.
• A single Starlink launch via Starship will launch 9 TBit of bandwidth into space - equivalent to 63 million parallel VoIP phone calls or about ~13 million parallel Skype video calls with HD resolution.

As the technology matures these numbers will go up - per Moore's law or faster, because satellite technologies are still very early on the mass production R&D path.

The only real physical limitation will be near very large population centers where orbital density and available downlink/uplink frequency channels combined with the beam width of uplink/downlink beam forming will define a maximum number of Starlink receivers per square kilometer. But these population centers are well served with Internet connectivity already.

MOD Edit: A Vetinari-approved method for posting OT.

 

[electracity]

Read through Mark B. Spiegel's Twitter feed. You'll find that the arguments from TSLAQ on Twitter are now pretty much exclusively centered around fraud. What other bear argument is left?

Very true, but it is under appreciated how much Spiegel's behavior is motivated by marketing his fund through Tesla hate. I don't know what he really believes at this point. I do know that he has personally benefit by his high profile hate of Tesla, regardless of SP.

It's too bad he suckered the smaller TSLAQ guys into betting too much against Tesla without hedging their position.

 

[FrankSG]

Does anybody else feel like somebody's been buying up all the shares under $645 for the past 20-25 minutes?

 

[ZachShahan]

Go over to the CleanTechnica Youtube Channel and watch their livestream as a rerun.

Paging @ZachShahan should really drop into b4 the calls and post a link. Many of us can't connect to the audio feed offered via ir.tesla.com

Cheers!

Thanks. Chanan does an amazing job. So much prep.
Stemmed from frustration with ir.tesla.com, but then kept getting improved and improved.

He just published a new, edited version to fix things that happen in real-time transcription, etc.

 

[RobStark]