Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Kuhz]

I doubt we'll go red today...the whole reason we opened so strong was that there was a lot of buying pressure. The manipulators probably amplified that to create an opportunity to start some downward momentum. So we should end up the day in strongly positive territory unless the macros tank.

That’s what reason would dictate, something that’s been missing from TSLA for the last few weeks

 

[azaz]

I wonder if the stock settling down over the next week or so would make a credit rating upgrade more probable

 

[Robbbin90]

oh boy... somehow AMD is at +2.7% and Tesla is now at +0.6%
Looks like Apple is going green today with bad news that Foxconn is not allowed to open factories
what a strange day again ...

 

[ZachF]

@FactChecking — I like to add the element of time to your argument as well.

Over time, the the components of an internal combustion engine (rings, gaskets, and seals) wear; it pollutes more and more. Hence, smokey old cars.

Over time, more and more renewable energy is added to the grid. Electric vehicles become cleaner and cleaner. Therefore, the environment becomes healthier and healthier for your children and grandchildren.

Indeed.

The CO2 per KWh on the US grid has dropped considerably since the Model S was released in 2012, and efficiency (miles per KWh) has improved as well.

 

[Drax7]

Entering a zig zag pattern it seems.
Squeeze and flush price action.
You zig when the price zags,
And vice versa.
Boredom punctuated by horror.

 

[Yonki]

Sure, but I seriously doubt that specific part is true. Certain elements of the battery making process may be cheaper, but to say it’s more then 2x cheaper for the whole battery is hard to believe. Would be great if true.

I've heard this a few times now - can anyone tell me what "2x cheaper" means? If something costs $1.00 to make, what does it cost if it's 2x cheaper?

Edit: Had somehow accidentally quoted my question

 

[larmor]

Cannot believe this story is being picked up.

Google Could Acquire Tesla For $1,500 Per Share On Its Way To $2 Trillion Stock

What Tesla would stand to gain:

• Google’s software muscle and large cash pile increase Tesla’s chances of executing well in a larger space.
• We outline a case with Google as Tesla’s parent. This could see Tesla grow 11x from its current market cap of close to $135 billion to $1.5 trillion by scaling its production and deliveries to about 8 million units (approaching Volkswagen & Toyota) while monetizing its self-driving technology more broadly by licensing it to other auto-makers.
• Considering that Tesla stock jumped to almost $1,000 last week from ~$500 in less than ten days, and all of this after an already surprising rise from the lows of below $200 less than a year ago, we believe the outliers are not so difficult to imagine.
• In this analysis, we remind investors of risks in the stock, as-well-as provide additional color to the upside case, tying our two outliers analysis together.

What Google would stand to gain:

• Google needs to grow revenues, and cars are a huge market, with roughly 90 million sold per year. Moreover, selling software is right up Google’s alley, and Tesla is the leader by far in the car software space.
• Google has the financial muscle to undertake an acquisition of this size, given its $1 trillion market cap, ~$120 billion in cash reserves and free cash flows of over $20 billion a year.
• Headwinds to its core advertising business are expected to weigh on Google’s top line over coming years, with the key revenue driver over coming years likely to be the strong expected growth in Google’s Cloud segment
• If Google paid a 100% premium over Tesla’s current value of $750 a share, it would mean an acquisition price of $1,500 per share for Tesla. This would value Tesla at around $270 billion (double its current market cap roughly $135 billion). While this is a large sum to pay for a company that has yet to turn an annual profit, the upside may be substantial, as we detail below.

Could Tesla Be Worth $8,000 a Share to Google? Now We Are Getting Silly.

Google needs energy to run servers and has to be lower in cost than they get from revenues-- eg like bitcoin mining. Obviously this was easy in the past, but sustainable revenues are getting harder, and utilities are also stable to increasing their prices. So why not invest/acquire a utility company aka tesla...

 

[dl003]

Does anybody think Google's technology and money is compatible or beneficial to Tesla at this point? I don't.
Elon said talented engineers don't grow on tree and Tesla is flush with cash. These people sure don't listen, do they?

 

[Yonki]

...Tesla short-sellers all-time have lost around $17 billion...they chose to throw that money away trying in vain to stop the inevitable.

I feel like I should know this by now, but where did that $17 billion dollars end up?

 

[Jack6591]

Man, Germany registrations up, factory back open, and this google rumor, and the price was still pushed down close to open.

Do you guys think the vocal shorts and TSLAQ crowd will finally give up after Q1/Q2 assuming numbers still look good or are will they still be yelling about fraud in 2030 while everyone is riding around in robotaxis?

The shorts will never quit...

On down days...tell a positive, compelling narrative about Tesla.

On days that Tesla trades sideways...tell a positive, compelling narrative about Tesla.

On up days...tell a positive, compelling narrative about Tesla.

The shorts relentlessly spin their negative stories. It falls to owners of Tesla to tell the truth. In the end the facts and evidence will prevail. Longs need to tell their stories in loud, clear, and deliberate voices.

Speak with the voice of a lion, it feels great.

 

[KarenRei]

I feel like I should know this by now, but where did that $17 billion dollars end up?

Well, hundreds of thousands of it ended up in my trading account

 

[lklundin]

I feel like I should know this by now, but where did that $17 billion dollars end up?

In the portfolios of Tesla longs. Mine for example.

 

[Chocochip]

...efficiency (miles per KWh) has improved as well.

Without checking EPA numbers this is indirectly known via the fact that the range of the newer Model S keeps increasing while the battery pack size remains the same. Tesla talks about the range on their marketing materials (incl. on their website), but it might be helpful to flip this and say something like "now with a longer range of xxx miles from the same battery pack, showing an energy efficiency improvement of yy%", or something to that effect. The first part targets the performance lovers, the second targets the eco-conscious and budget-conscious people. Drive further on the same money spent. Lower your emissions per mile traveled. Spend less time charging. Choose all!

 

[Yonki]

Well, hundreds of thousands of it ended up in my trading account

In the portfolios of Tesla longs. Mine for example.

Well in that case, I'd like to buy all these shorts dinner! [How else are they going to eat?]

 

[rsm287]

CNBC's Phil LeBeau did a segment on Tesla's battery pack cost and pointed out how big of an advantage Tesla has over the other auto makers in this regard, something we on this board would consider old news. I can't wait to hear about the latest battery news in a few months and if that report that surfaced over the weekend regarding cost and efficiency turns out to even be partially correct I'd say ARC capital's predictions will not look so far fetched.

With China's production and Model Y production added to the mix we are going to see a lot of cars only restrained by battery production .... lots of great news coming soon.

Cheers to the longs.

Seems to me that Phil LeBeau has been doing his homework.......after hearing what Elon had to say about retail investors understanding Tesla better than institutional investors, maybe he's been reading up on here and elsewhere!

Update: seems this is based on research by Cairn Energy Research Advisors. Here's an article by Phil LeBeau:

Tesla's competitors play catch-up on electric batteries

Like the bit at the end:

Jaffe believes automakers are well aware of Tesla’s advantages. “I would say that five years ago when I spoke to automotive engineers about Tesla, they made fun of it. They thought it was something made in a garage,” he said. “Today that’s very different. They’re not necessarily going to speak publicly in this way, but there’s a lot of respect, and maybe envy, for what Tesla has done.”

 

[Nocturnal]

Without checking EPA numbers this is indirectly known via the fact that the range of the newer Model S keeps increasing while the battery pack size remains the same. Tesla talks about the range on their marketing materials (incl. on their website), but it might be helpful to flip this and say something like "now with a longer range of xxx miles from the same battery pack, showing an energy efficiency improvement of yy%", or something to that effect. The first part targets the performance lovers, the second targets the eco-conscious and budget-conscious people. Drive further on the same money spent. Lower your emissions per mile traveled. Spend less time charging. Choose all!

That's actually a good point. Nobody talks about relative efficiencies/carbon footprint of various EVs.

 

[neezer]

Because the initial goal was to beat a Model S, which means they can fit a large pack and can afford to be heavy. Also the Model S had many short comings at the time(over heating, lower range, etc etc).

It was the right choice to have 4 doors because having 2 doors will immediate put their car up against the Roadster 2.0 and it'll just get smoked.

Just like how iPace and Etron are suppose to be "Model X killers" even though they have the same amount of interior space as a mode 3. Only way to justify the range and price tag even though they are not in the same class. Just good old fashion marketing while reviewers will always compare SUV to SUV, sedan to sedan.

I know, I was being sarcrastic @ Porsche

 

[neezer]

Probably mentioned earlier by someone today but Giga Shanghai is back in business, though only with local-Shanghainese workers exclusively.

Tesla Giga Shanghai reopens as China workforce adjusts to new coronavirus conditions

 

[StealthP3D]

That’s what reason would dictate, something that’s been missing from TSLA for the last few weeks

I think you'll find that opinion is an outlier here.

A stronger case can be made that reason has finally started to show itself in TSLA's share price in recent weeks.

 

[StealthP3D]

I feel like I should know this by now, but where did that $17 billion dollars end up?

If you don't know then, to protect our lives, we can't tell you.