I think there’s a good chance the stock closes the quasi- gap that was created by the pricing of the PP at $767. Seen it happen many times.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
It would probably be cheaper to rip out the VW computers etc and replace it with Tesla guts than to do that.
With the significant electronics vertical integration in the Tesla architecture vs. the myriad of differing electrical components from 3rd party suppliers used by VW, it wouldn't be worth the effort... and even if you did it, what you ended up with would look nothing like Tesla's software stack under the covers...
I'm thinking of having a garage sale.
1 used crystal ball will be included in the item's
Proceeds go to funding @SpaceCash and I's start up.
1 used crystal ball will be included in the item's
Proceeds go to funding @SpaceCash and I's start up.
willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
In case it hasn't been posted yet, the NTSB Board Meeting will be live streamed here: NTSB Live
Video is giving an error for now, but presumably it will commence in about 30 minutes.
Video is giving an error for now, but presumably it will commence in about 30 minutes.
woodisgood
Optimustic Pessimist
Did you listen to Tesla Daily with the Analyst interview? Seems that battery investor day is to show a roadmap to this 50% yoy growth, 1.2 million cars by 2023. So this is the expectation, to see how Tesla can overcome battery constraints.
Anything beyond this he mentioned that credibility will probably not be given much because if supply outstrip demand (say Tesla can surprise and guide for 2 twh by 2023), he sees this as a potential negative because it's a strain on operating cost and there won't be enough demand to use all this 2twh of batteries by 2023. So I think the power train part is exciting, but the battery part is somewhat being priced in. Anything beyond is not going to be seen as a positive for the short term according to him. So it's something to be mindful about.
So production beyond what the analyst see as potential EV adoption by 2023 is not going to move the stock much. But if the price drops below $100/kwh, then perhaps stock will go bonkers.
jhm
Well-Known Member
So you're saying selling Tesla chips could be an additional revenue stream.
willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
From their archives it looks like they have 1-2 live streams per month, NTSB Live
So it looks like they don't stream every meeting, but it's not exactly rare either.
Visited the model Y ordering/deliveries thread. Pretty exciting for them and all of us. Good times ahead.
Maybe. I've been keeping an eye on the idea of Tesla selling skateboards and/or the entire Gigafactory model for a while. I am starting to lean towards it going the way of Apple though.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
There is a very interesting new article just published by InsideEV, a German engineering firm analyzed the Model Y cast frame structure and came away very impressed:
I.e. the Model Y is way beyond the current casting technologies of German automakers.
They estimate significant reduction in Body In White manufacturing time and costs:
This means significantly higher margins on the Model Y - and also explains how Tesla was able to build the new Model Y body line in just a few months in the limited factory space of Fremont.
Tesla Model Y May Have Bigger Cast Parts Than Expected
“The casting process must be definitely very well advanced because the size and weight of the cast parts are beyond what is known from today’s auto parts. The process could be done with HPDC (High-Pressure Die Casting) on a cold chamber pressure casting machine with vacuum support to avoid casting defects such as pores, bubbles, cracks, etc.
Our rough assumption is that the rear structural part could weigh around 40 to 45 kg. As a reference: the cast rear long member of the Audi A8 is weighing approximately 10.5 kg.”
“The casting process must be definitely very well advanced because the size and weight of the cast parts are beyond what is known from today’s auto parts. The process could be done with HPDC (High-Pressure Die Casting) on a cold chamber pressure casting machine with vacuum support to avoid casting defects such as pores, bubbles, cracks, etc.
Our rough assumption is that the rear structural part could weigh around 40 to 45 kg. As a reference: the cast rear long member of the Audi A8 is weighing approximately 10.5 kg.”
I.e. the Model Y is way beyond the current casting technologies of German automakers.
“For the rear body structure, we assume the closing force required would be above 6.000 metric tons. Usually, the maximum shot weight for aluminum alloy parts is around 10 kg, due to machine limitation in closing force capacity. The standard closing force is around 1.500 to 2.000 metric tons.
Only very few machine suppliers worldwide have the experience to build cold chamber casting machines with 4.000 or a maximum of 5.500 metric tons of closing force. Therefore, the machine at Tesla must be a special custom-build and quite gigantic.”
Only very few machine suppliers worldwide have the experience to build cold chamber casting machines with 4.000 or a maximum of 5.500 metric tons of closing force. Therefore, the machine at Tesla must be a special custom-build and quite gigantic.”
They estimate significant reduction in Body In White manufacturing time and costs:
“The body assembly shop most probably consists of two frame lines, two body side subassembly welding cells and a BIW (body-in-white) closure mounting and finish line. That would be roughly only 60 percent of a conventional body shop.
The total production time of a Model Y body-in-white compared to a conventional stamped steel body will be substantially lower. Considering the net process time for the underbody section, only the casting would eliminate between 1.000 to 1.500 weld spots, at 5 to 7 seconds each. That would total at an approximately 120-minutes net process time-saving.
If Tesla is able to manage the production process with high quality, production costs will be definitely lower than Model 3’s. Guess what would happen if the full-body frame casting machine would work as shown in their patent application…”
The total production time of a Model Y body-in-white compared to a conventional stamped steel body will be substantially lower. Considering the net process time for the underbody section, only the casting would eliminate between 1.000 to 1.500 weld spots, at 5 to 7 seconds each. That would total at an approximately 120-minutes net process time-saving.
If Tesla is able to manage the production process with high quality, production costs will be definitely lower than Model 3’s. Guess what would happen if the full-body frame casting machine would work as shown in their patent application…”
This means significantly higher margins on the Model Y - and also explains how Tesla was able to build the new Model Y body line in just a few months in the limited factory space of Fremont.
jhm
Well-Known Member
So Tesla would be able to make any hardware recommendations that would be cost effective to VW. This could open up a lot of supply chain opportunities for Tesla, not just SaaS.
I don't think it would work. Remember, VW is not vertically integrated in any sense. Most of those supposed 10,000 people work for Bosch, Brembo, Lucas
and G*d knows who else.
willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
The meeting is now live: http://ntsb.windrosemedia.com/live/
"Board Meeting : Car with automated vehicle controls crashes into roadway barrier"
"Board Meeting : Car with automated vehicle controls crashes into roadway barrier"
jhm
Well-Known Member
It's fine for Tesla to go the Apple route for it's own consumer products. But my hunch is that most OEMs are looking for a Microsoft operating solution that can allow them to focus more on the hardware side. Especially, when an OEM is threatened with existential risk if they can't pull together a robust software solution in time, they can be motivated to spend quite alot on a vendor that can actually solve their problems.
davecolene0606
Member
Years back one of the regulars had an awesome magic 8 ball, it was spot on until it wasn't
Had a good run though
Fire Away!
(It's the batteries, Stupid!)
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