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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I'll scoop up more shares when SP drops to lower 700. Maybe just a wish.
I wish people would stop wishing for the price to drop. It's nuts. The stock moves based on current news and macro news and perception, but it has no memory of what happened two days ago. The "dead cat bounce" is the only form of one-day memory, when a stock (or the market) drops a lot, it will often open up the following day from people looking for a bargain. Like today. But if you got your wish, and it dropped to $725, guess what? That's where it starts from the next day and the day after and...

The Market Has No Memory
 
It's fine for Tesla to go the Apple route for it's own consumer products. But my hunch is that most OEMs are looking for a Microsoft operating solution that can allow them to focus more on the hardware side. Especially, when an OEM is threatened with existential risk if they can't pull together a robust software solution in time, they can be motivated to spend quite alot on a vendor that can actually solve their problems.
The main reason for using vendor for this is that no executive can be blamed for failure. In house means taking responsibility--no "professional" executive does that.
 
NTSB folks are talking. Predictably saying things like "not enough safeguards to avoid misuse".

I think @Mike Smith's observation bears repeating, the NTSB doesn't actually have any binding regulatory powers:

"All NTSB does is investigations and give non-binding recommendations. In this case they've investigated how Tesla's software worked two years ago, which is useless since it's changed since then. NHTSA knows a lot more about current Autopilot than NTSB does, so they will just ignore the NTSB's recommendations like they did last time. This is a waste of time and nothing will come of it."
 
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I wish people would stop wishing for the price to drop. It's nuts. The stock moves based on current news and macro news and perception, but it has no memory of what happened two days ago. The "dead cat bounce" is the only form of one-day memory, when a stock (or the market) drops a lot, it will often open up the following day from people looking for a bargain. Like today. But if you got your wish, and it dropped to $725, guess what? That's where it starts from the next day and the day after and...

The Market Has No Memory
Plenty of people come into new dry powder every day. These people just want to acquire shares at the lowest price possible. I don’t see anything wrong with that
 
Plenty of people come into new dry powder every day. These people just want to acquire shares at the lowest price possible. I don’t see anything wrong with that
Plenty of people have stock already and plenty of people work for Tesla ....stock price drops should not be publicly wished for IMHO.
 
Maybe. I've been keeping an eye on the idea of Tesla selling skateboards and/or the entire Gigafactory model for a while. I am starting to lean towards it going the way of Apple though.

No one is going to buy it because that just means legacy auto makers conceded to Tesla in manufacturing process and power train prowess. These legacy makers were built on being competitive around race tracks trying to build a pedigree. Even Toyotas had rally cars. They would rather die then to buy everything from Tesla.
 
Looks like there will be a lot of blame going around via the NTSB:

Apple Slammed on Cell-Phone Policy in NTSB Probe of Tesla Crash

The 2018 fatal crash of a Tesla Inc. SUV, in which an Apple Inc. employee was playing a game on his company-issued phone and the car veered into a divider, highlight the “misuses of technology,” a U.S. investigator said Tuesday.

Not only did the driver allow the semi-autonomous driving system in the Tesla vehicle to essentially drive itself, but Apple didn’t instruct its employees not to use its devices while behind the wheel, said National Transportation Safety Board Chairman Robert Sumwalt.

“The crash driver’s employer, Apple, is a tech leader, but like most employers, has yet to develop a distracted driving policy,” Sumwalt said in an opening statement at the NTSB’s meeting to conclude the cause of the accident.

The NTSB, which has for years issued warnings about distracted driving and its deadly toll on the roadways, asked Apple last year whether it has taken steps to ensure employees don’t misuse their devices.
 
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Plenty of people come into new dry powder every day. These people just want to acquire shares at the lowest price possible. I don’t see anything wrong with that

I just see it as selfish to wish for a lower share price for one's short term personal gain when the vast majority of Tesla shareholders benefit from higher prices. Those with the most to gain with a lower share price are the shorts and that's who's side you are temporarily taking when you root for it to drop.
 
Plenty of people come into new dry powder every day. These people just want to acquire shares at the lowest price possible. I don’t see anything wrong with that
My point exactly. If it's going to go up by 5% tomorrow, the price doesn't matter. The stock moves in percentages, not dollars.
 
There is a very interesting new article just published by InsideEV, a German engineering firm analyzed the Model Y cast frame structure and came away very impressed:

Tesla Model Y May Have Bigger Cast Parts Than Expected

“The casting process must be definitely very well advanced because the size and weight of the cast parts are beyond what is known from today’s auto parts. The process could be done with HPDC (High-Pressure Die Casting) on a cold chamber pressure casting machine with vacuum support to avoid casting defects such as pores, bubbles, cracks, etc.

Our rough assumption is that the rear structural part could weigh around 40 to 45 kg. As a reference: the cast rear long member of the Audi A8 is weighing approximately 10.5 kg.”

I.e. the Model Y is way beyond the current casting technologies of German automakers.

“For the rear body structure, we assume the closing force required would be above 6.000 metric tons. Usually, the maximum shot weight for aluminum alloy parts is around 10 kg, due to machine limitation in closing force capacity. The standard closing force is around 1.500 to 2.000 metric tons.

Only very few machine suppliers worldwide have the experience to build cold chamber casting machines with 4.000 or a maximum of 5.500 metric tons of closing force. Therefore, the machine at Tesla must be a special custom-build and quite gigantic.”

They estimate significant reduction in Body In White manufacturing time and costs:

“The body assembly shop most probably consists of two frame lines, two body side subassembly welding cells and a BIW (body-in-white) closure mounting and finish line. That would be roughly only 60 percent of a conventional body shop.

The total production time of a Model Y body-in-white compared to a conventional stamped steel body will be substantially lower. Considering the net process time for the underbody section, only the casting would eliminate between 1.000 to 1.500 weld spots, at 5 to 7 seconds each. That would total at an approximately 120-minutes net process time-saving.

If Tesla is able to manage the production process with high quality, production costs will be definitely lower than Model 3’s. Guess what would happen if the full-body frame casting machine would work as shown in their patent application…”

This means significantly higher margins on the Model Y - and also explains how Tesla was able to build the new Model Y body line in just a few months in the limited factory space of Fremont.

Do we have a winner for the leaked Jerome e-mail on "production developments"? The e-mail and the casting patent were both reported on around the same time if my memory serves correctly.