Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mkorpal]

I think it's ok to admit the Y backlog wasn't great (I say this because I've seen NY and FL non performance orders from last 2-3 months get invited to delivery), I mean they did actively hope that would be the case. They succeeded.

Anyone doubting long term demand for the Y tho is extremely off base

I wouldn’t use that as evidence for order backlogs one way or the other. Same thing happened with the 3

 

[Krugerrand]

But based on the experts (READ: not you or me) the transmission rate of this virus is very high versus the flu and people often have it but don't know it...so I think its likely spreading right now inside US and I would not be surprised to learn that many had it and no one tested them because we are in midst of flu season.

Stop with the drama.

1.) Don’t throw around the word ‘expert’ like that’s suddenly suppose to lend credence to your unsubstantiated claims. The experts also told us Tesla would fail and not be able to do all sorts of things while the competition decimated them. So, yeah - expert means sugar.

2.) I actually know several nurses and Drs in North America from many different segments of healthcare. Every single one of them are - people are out of their minds right now. As always their advice is take standard flu season precautions; get flu shots, good hand hygiene etc... and take a valium. And they are all just shaking their heads at the ridiculous market overreaction.

Stop fear mongering.

 

[KarenRei]

*Shrug* we've got more than 100,000,000 people in this country who still maintain a strong fear of Islamist terrorist, despite the fact that they kill fewer people each year than lightning strikes.

And said people still go in public and shop, so....

 

[MarcusMaximus]

As a Canadian, the USD losses are amplified even more with the stronger USD

I don't think this makes sense... It's changing as a percentage. Whether it's dollars or pesos makes no difference(at least, outside changes in the relative currency values when you buy vs sell, but then a strengthening dollar would help you, not hurt you).

 

[LJS22]

I think it's ok to admit the Y backlog wasn't great (I say this because I've seen NY and FL non performance orders from last 2-3 months get invited to delivery), I mean they did actively hope that would be the case. They succeeded.

Anyone doubting long term demand for the Y tho is extremely off base

Accurate assessment. Expensive pre order cost, many will opt for 7 seats, most were not expecting it till end of the year. But longevity of Y orders will be huge.

When Elon stops building rockets he’s going to tweet “Model Y deliveries happening now! Order now at Tesla.com”
The guy didn’t even know about hot wheels cybertruck until yesterday. He’s locked in at SpaceX right now. His return to Tesla will be met with great news.

 

[KarenRei]

I wouldn’t use that as evidence for order backlogs one way or the other. Same thing happened with the 3

The thing is, Tesla actively discouraged an order backlog with the Y, to avoid Osbourning the 3. Musk admitted to having a downplayed unveil on it. And going with orders rather than reservations was likely another conscious decision on that front. They also kept pretending that it wouldn't be out until the end of the year, to encourage people to buy the 3. In many countries they don't allow you to order the Y at all.

I strongly suspect that there is relatively little backlog for it. But that the new order rate will be quite high.

 

[oldTAVguy]

Will they really, though? How long can a person stay in a state of permanent fear, vs. a flu that has a 0,2% mortality rate to middle-aged people without any antiviral treatment, and probably will have a drug approved for treatment (remdesivir) within a couple months?

From Coronavirus Mortality Rate (COVID-19) - Worldometer today

"Mortality rate in the Hubei Province was 3.1%.
Mortality rate nationwide was 2.1%.
Fatality rate in other provinces was 0.16%."

And this is China.

If remdesivir has no deadly side effects and show any improvement it will be used as fast as they can make it.

 

[gerebgraus]

This tweet a likely explanation for TSLA trading for the day:
Mohamed A. El-Erian on Twitter

 

[KarenRei]

From Coronavirus Mortality Rate (COVID-19) - Worldometer today

"Mortality rate in the Hubei Province was 3.1%.
Mortality rate nationwide was 2.1%.
Fatality rate in other provinces was 0.16%."

And this is China.

If remdesivir has no deadly side effects and show any improvement it will be used as fast as they can make it.

Global is estimated a mean of 1,1% (but with wide error bars) - much lower than Hubei. Varies strongly with age, with the 80+ cohort having a nearly 1 in 5 chance of death, but 0,2% for most middle-aged groups.

 

[Unpilot]

World is changing...for the better.
In spite of ourselves.

 

[sparcs]

I think it's ok to admit the Y backlog wasn't great (I say this because I've seen NY and FL non performance orders from last 2-3 months get invited to delivery), I mean they did actively hope that would be the case. They succeeded.

Anyone doubting long term demand for the Y tho is extremely off base

with a $2500 deposit, the reservation backlog should never have been expected to be too high. They only made it $100 nonrefundable recently.

All I assume they are doing now is making sure that deliveries are lined up early enough to match production. Not everyone is going to want their car this early.

 

[thait84]

World is changing...for the better.
In spite of ourselves.
View attachment 515739

I wonder what the range is on that

 

[Mkorpal]

The thing is, Tesla actively discouraged an order backlog with the Y, to avoid Osbourning the 3. Musk admitted to having a downplayed unveil on it. And going with orders rather than reservations was likely another conscious decision on that front. They also kept pretending that it wouldn't be out until the end of the year, to encourage people to buy the 3. In many countries they don't allow you to order the Y at all.

I strongly suspect that there is relatively little backlog for it. But that the new order rate will be quite high.

I agree it's probable, but I just wouldn't use delivery order as evidence.

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

This tweet a likely explanation for TSLA trading for the day:
Mohamed A. El-Erian on Twitter

Thanks. Insightful stuff
Implies to me that there could be further to go

 

[thait84]

with a $2500 deposit, the reservation backlog should never have been expected to be too high. They only made it $100 nonrefundable recently.

All I assume they are doing now is making sure that deliveries are lined up early enough to match production. Not everyone is going to want their car this early.

I'm still waiting for my email. White / Black Interior / FSD / 5 Seater. I do think that people (Fred) are making a big deal saying there is a lack of demand just because Tesla offered some 7 seater reservation holders to change to be able to take delivery in March.

The Model Y is going to sell like gangbusters at full price (no subsidies).

 

[Fobble]

OT....BTW...airlines might be good short here.

Are you trying to distract TSLA bears?

 

[jhm]

Something wrong..
This spells 3YSX, not S3XY

You might consult the Kama Sutra.

 

[Dare]

That the RWD Model Y is now ‘prepare for delivery’ may be interpreted as low demand & having an effect on stock price

Thanks. Insightful stuff
Implies to me that there could be further to go

JFYI, this user has posted about the 3rd care-bear message today, without ever even bothering to reply to the counterarguments. This proves that he's not really interested in any discussion, he just wants to disrupt the forum with care-bear messages.

As explained several days ago, Tesla would want to strongly filter Model Y buyers who can take delivery by the end of Q1, on the west coast, in configs they are building, and sort out payment and paperwork in time. The Model Y reservation alone doesn't give Tesla this information.

 

[Krugerrand]

did anyone watch the video?

Of course I did not! If you can’t report impartial, without clickbait and dramatization and nefarious subliminal suggestions, starting with the title and opening sentence or two, you don’t get another second of my time. I wouldn’t even care if there were actual illegal activities going on in the end. I’m completely done with the media, reporters, journalists, bloggers et al. No value added at this point in life.

 

[Unpilot]

I wonder what the range is on that

Zenith Motors Introduces Its Electric Van