Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[tinm]

Meanwhile, denial remains strong in the oil and gas industry:

“Drivers to Start Ditching Gasoline Cars for EVs As Early As 2025,” says OilPrice dot com.

(Gee, that’d be 12 years since I ditched my gas guzzler for an EV.)

Drivers To Start Ditching Gasoline Cars for EVs As Early As 2025 | OilPrice.com

 

[Sparky]

Great thread by Cathy Wood:

Cathie Wood on Twitter

Note: I don't trade often and mostly out of an IRA account so there's no immediate tax implications. I do set stop-losses then take a few days off before buying back.
This time, stop-losses triggered at $790, $720. I've been buying all the way down through the 600s but plan to sit on some cash for a bit.

I'm def not disagreeing with CWood but I can see some headwinds for TSLA in the 12-18 mos timeframe.
One scenario: Corona spread eases because increased temps in northern hemi and stocks rebound in May-June. Fall comes and it's a double whammy:
1)Virus returns with a vengeance as H1N1 did in 1918. It's not about mortality rates it's the impact on economies to efficiently treat a large number of infections and deal with the panic even if it's just a stronger flu to 98%.
2) The short relapse of US economy in Spring '20 is the death strike to legacy auto in US and Germany. This doesn't reveal itself until Fall '20 right before elections. Massive layoffs in USA. President Sanders suddenly looking more likely in October and Wall St runs scared impacting markets.

TSLA, is not immune to deep economic pain even if Tesla is well positioned to weather it. Granted the above is mostly visions of a fevered, sleep deprived mind (work has been crazy busy). But, I'm thinking we may have a "up, down, then up" TSLA over the next year and preparing for that by keeping more cash on the sidelines. I will change that thesis based on what sort of market recovery comes from CV dissipating and legacy auto immunity from the EV virus. We know there's only one vaccine for legacy auto and they seem to be staying in quarantine rather than taking the injection.

 

[AlexS]

March will be a tough month for the markets.

Multiple companies will most likely have to warn.

Estimates will ratchet down.

Tesla should be safe with the model Y rollout stoking demand. Risks include parts shortage, factory closing, recession.

Nobody needs to buy a car today. That's very bad for car manufacturers. Ford is in huge trouble.

Yeah, but 15th March feels like eternity at the moment

 

[Krugerrand]

keeping the faith: just added to my portfolio by buying 315 shares @ 632.

If people would just start posting about demand problems, I could buy some more too.

 

[elasalle]

Note: I don't trade often and mostly out of an IRA account so there's no immediate tax implications. I do set stop-losses then take a few days off before buying back.
This time, stop-losses triggered at $790, $720. I've been buying all the way down through the 600s but plan to sit on some cash for a bit.

I'm def not disagreeing with CWood but I can see some headwinds for TSLA in the 12-18 mos timeframe.
One scenario: Corona spread eases because increased temps in northern hemi and stocks rebound in May-June. Fall comes and it's a double whammy:
1)Virus returns with a vengeance as H1N1 did in 1918. It's not about mortality rates it's the impact on economies to efficiently treat a large number of infections and deal with the panic even if it's just a stronger flu to 98%.
2) The short relapse of US economy in Spring '20 is the death strike to legacy auto in US and Germany. This doesn't reveal itself until Fall '20 right before elections. Massive layoffs in USA. President Sanders suddenly looking more likely in October and Wall St runs scared impacting markets.

TSLA, is not immune to deep economic pain even if Tesla is well positioned to weather it. Granted the above is mostly visions of a fevered, sleep deprived mind (work has been crazy busy). But, I'm thinking we may have a "down then up" TSLA over the next year and preparing for that by keeping more cash on the sidelines. I will change that thesis based on what sort of market recovery comes from CV dissipating and legacy auto immunity from the EV virus. We know there's only one vaccine for legacy auto and they seem to be staying in quarantine rather than taking the injection.

By Fall, there will be "NO FEAR OF THE UNKNOWN". It will be like every other virus that has been trying to kill humans since the beginning of time.

 

[Quesder]

What I've been thinking is that the Corona-related market downturn will in some way 'help' TSLA Q1.

Before the markets were scared of COVID-19 and Tesla was taking ATH after ATH (we're talking just a few weeks ago), the main worry stopping the stock to keep climbing was "we'll have to get the uncertain Q1 out of the way before it will get better and better" (april's battery day, Q2 and most importantly Q3 and Q4 which Elon said should be amazing).

Now that Tesla is down 35% from it's ATH the Q1 worry is no more.

Q1 ER hopefully will show investors:
- that TSLA had a great quarter despite COVID-19;
- that TSLA performed better relative to other OEMS in times of global crisis;
- that TSLA is largely unaffected by COVID-19 and demand remains higher than production.

The above seems quite logical to me, but not to the current irrational markets. They have to see hard numbers before being able to reason. (And even then it's a stretch).

Therefore, I'm now quite bullish on Q1 ER (and P&D report actually) in relation to the current SP, instead of being on the fence about it when we were at ATH.

But, do you have any basis that the Q1 number can be good?
What if it is really affected by the virus ?

 

[elasalle]

BBC West Live on Twitter
The march continues through the city... #GretaThunberg bristol #ClimateCrisi

 

[Krugerrand]

We certainly need more Jesus stories this week

Tl;dr: altruist boss got gifted a tesla because of his progressive views and selfless actions

Actually, a hidden point to this story that I’ve expressed, that @StealthP3D has expressed and a few others; to attract/get money, you must not care about money.

This guy’s business is more successful than ever because he chose to place importance on the things in life that really matter; his employees and their well-being.

Elon is more successful than ever because it’s not money that motivates him, it’s saving humanity.

Works with animals too; to get the treat, you must leave the treat. Difference is that dogs, horses, even cats are way easier to teach this to than people.

 

[Rarity]

On another topic, Chamath Palihapitiya mentioned something about green bonds being issued in Europe. Does anybody here know about those and whether Tesla may be able to tap them for the GF4 construction?

While I guessed that Tesla may be able to get fairly good rates for borrowing in Germany in any event due to the negative real rates, it would always be good to get even better rates.

I noticed that the Tesla big bond was seeing even a $97 print earlier today and wonder whether the bond market isn't taking low-rate borrowing in Germany into account.

 

[Glamisduner]

Ok just sold a few more and the stock appears to instantly be going up, your all welcome!

 

[Steve m]

Former Federal Reserve Member expects the Fed to act by Sunday.

Ex-Fed Gov Warsh sees coordinated global central bank action soon in response to coronavirus

 

[Boomer19]

True, nevertheless a brokerage may determine that it's risky to lend shares having a GTC sell order. It can become an unwritten internal risk aversion rule for the brokerage. An agent at my large brokerage affirmed this is the case there.

ok, so there’s the difference.
IB doesn’t work that way. highly automated and real-time credit managing system. no living breathing ‘margin’ department.
therefore it always takes the best possible scenario to utilize positions from
those holding margin debits (and subscribers of Fully paid lending) to ‘yield’ the most profitable outcome. next day, recalculate, rinse, repeat.

brokers have to constantly monitor the market against the portfolio, apply segregation of customer funds/position against the house, report this to street, then figure out what is eligible to be used, then act.

i’d figure most brokers are moving toward this automation if they aren’t already.

for what you said, i could easily see a prime desk servicing a big wig with preferential treatment. this happens all the time.

but most highly automated brokers aren’t going to factor in a trade date GTC with a settle date process like borrowing/loaning shares

 

[Fact Checking]

if you enter into margin debit, they can utilize up to 140% value of that margin debit.

Note that my point wasn't that they cannot take the shares (they can), but that they might choose take shares from customers with pending GTC sell orders last, based on heuristic sweeps - because these customers might have a shorter expected ownership period of the stock.

@Curt Renz might have more insight into this.

 

[Krugerrand]

My only concern is that if people have their brokerage accounts down 30-50%, they'd hesitate a bit more on a 50k car unless they really needed it.

Whelp, my last ICE might have just imploded today. It was supposed to make it to CYBRTRCK. If the fix is more than the worth of the car, you know what I’ll be buying.

 

[Mike Smith]

The fact is this will barely have any effect on Tesla.

Giga Shanghai is up and running and the virus is on steep decline in China - will be supply constrained for some time
Giga Fremont just started Model Y production so they'll be supply constrained for some time (can adjust 3/Y lines as necessary)
Giga New York will be supply constrained for years
Giga Nevada will be supply constrained for years (all of cells, packs, and semis)
Giga Berlin hasn't even started construction

All this really means is lower commodity prices and huge problems for all of Tesla's competitors.

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

Tesla Model 3 grabs UK Car of the Year Award for 2020

 

[kbM3]

Yet, here we are. A world full of overly emotional, dummies. Yay, us!

Agree. My emotions came into play as irrational exuberance shortly after discovering this forum. I invested more than 100% of my net worth (criminally risky since I don’t own real estate and was financially independent with no plans to work). Luckily I didn’t compound it with fear on drops and through wisely swing trading, I’m in a far more secure place with more Tesla shares AND more safety net than had I been responsible in the first place. So my risk taking was successful, but it was dumb. I.e. if someone takes a bet that they have a 90% chance of 100X their money vs. a 10% chance of losing it all, it’s a stupid bet (for most) as a one time thing.

 

[Drax7]

The fact is this will barely have any effect on Tesla.

Giga Shanghai is up and running and the virus is on steep decline in China - will be supply constrained for some time
Giga Fremont just started Model Y production so they'll be supply constrained for some time (can adjust 3/Y lines as necessary)
Giga New York will be supply constrained for years
Giga Nevada will be supply constrained for years (all of cells, packs, and semis)
Giga Berlin hasn't even started construction

All this really means is lower commodity prices and huge problems for all of Tesla's competitors.

Issue now is the restoration of demand, consumer confidence under assault.

 

[Fact Checking]

My only concern is that if people have their brokerage accounts down 30-50%, they'd hesitate a bit more on a 50k car unless they really needed it.

We are very TSLA centric: the Dow is down 18% - it's a bit harder for unscrupulous market makers to ambush the Dow with naked short selling.

The Fed signaled today that they are willing to cut rates if the epidemic gets worse:

Fed Officials Leave Door Open to Rate Cuts as Coronavirus Risks Rise​

I don't think markets have processed this yet - the Fed is normally not obligated to proactively help with health emergencies, and in election years they are also keen to stay impartial and not help any of the parties.

Them disclosing that they are thinking about rate cuts is a powerful signal.

Edit, just saw this:

Ex-Fed Gov Warsh sees coordinated global central bank action soon in response to coronavirus​

If this happens over the weekend then next week could be a big bounce and V-shaped recovery, all other things equal.

The Fed still has 1.5% of rate cut dry powder, which is a lot if they are willing to use it.

 

[Nocturnal]

With the gloom and doom, this is a good read from the Harvard Business Review

https://hbr.org/2020/02/how-tesla-sets-itself-apart

Stuff we know, but I like confirmation outside of our bubble.

Edit, just saw this:

​

Ex-Fed Gov Warsh sees coordinated global central bank action soon in response to coronavirus​

If this happens over the weekend then next week could be a big bounce and V-shaped recovery, all other things equal.​

Trump will see to it that enough money is pumped into the economy that it at least stays stable until they election. This is his #1 concern by far.​