Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dhrivnak]

This is quite a long summary - anyone volunteering to take one for the team and create a short textual EXECUTIVE summary of notable key points found?

Lithium batteries work.

 

[RobStark]

easy : announcing an EV company and raising money
hard : running an actual EV company

You should go work for Atlis and raise $1.4B, I am sure they will give you a good commission.

We know Jeff Bezos didn't do his due diligence. He gives out half a billion dollars like candy. Being a total fool with money is how you get to a net worth of $133B.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Why then use the famous Jobs’ photo as his Twitter avatar? Look at his profile:

View attachment 378334 [

An off colour approach to fight for a noble goal. It’s a grey area. Without resorting to raising the dead, the alternative would be shouting to the wind, as the vast majority of twitter users do. On balance, a positive influence, and I can’t help thinking that Jobs, of Apple fame, would have understood the need for zero emissions.

 

[Fact Checking]

Anyone have ideas on timing of HW3 introduction? Expecting a significant bump in SP from that but maybe I am wrong.

Newest article I found in a search was one from late Nov, predicting Q2 which is pretty soon now, other newer articles say just vaguely “first half 2019”. Thinking maybe sometime Q3 after the big effort to launch M3 oversees is well behind them.

Article I found claiming Q2 plans for H3 intro, yup from SeekingAlpha but don’t fret it seems pretty positive:
Why Hardware 3 Is Tesla's Dark Horse - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

I believe they'll start installing HW3 in all new cars starting April, i.e. in 6 weeks.

Pete Bannon (Director of Hardware Engineering) mentioned it during the ER call that they have the HW3 module assembly line installed, qualified and are doing test runs already, and that they are on track for an April 1 start.

No way are they going to delay it until July, IMHO.

Effect on SP price might depend on when they are going to release the new, HW3-only neural networks.

 

[JRP3]

Why then use the famous Jobs’ photo as his Twitter avatar? Look at his profile:

I really have no idea why anyone would give a second of thought about this but please give it a rest in this thread.

 

[Yuri_G]

You should go work for Atlis and raise $1.4B, I am sure they will give you a good commission.

We know Jeff Bezos didn't do his due diligence. He gives out half a billion dollars like candy. Being a total fool with money is how you get to a net worth of $133B.

What do you know about Rivian that we don't? Why are you so sure they will succeed?

 

[Carl Raymond]

I believe they'll start installing HW3 in all new cars starting April, i.e. in 6 weeks.

Pete Bannon (Director of Hardware Engineering) mentioned it during the ER call that they have the HW3 module assembly line installed, qualified and are doing test runs already, and that they are on track for an April 1 start.

No way are they going to delay it until July, IMHO.

Effect on SP price might depend on when they are going to release the new, HW3-only neural networks.

Set A. People who do not yet appreciate the future value of Tesla.
Set B. People who do understand the significance of HW3.

Intersection A and B? Approximately zero.

There may be some media hype value attached to the event, but Joe Average won’t be impressed till he hails a cab and an empty Tesla pulls up.

 

[EVNow]

easy : announcing an EV company and raising money
hard : running an actual EV company

Both are hard - but require different set of skills. People with the skills needed to raise money may or may not have the skills needed to actual run the company.

 

[Artful Dodger]

By now, some of you may have watched the EV-TV/Jack Richard video testing the Tesla Model 3 2170 battery cell. If you haven't here are some take-aways from the meaty part.

Watch 10 min of his video starting from 55:13 (use 1.5x spd as req'd)

1. Tesla uses the same chemistry in both its 18650 and 2170 cells
2. No magic in 2170s; energy increase matches weight and vol increase vs 18650
   
3. 2170 cell gravimetric energy density (GED) was measured at 237 wh/kg
   1. measured 16.2 wh energy in his test (see pt 8.3 below)
      
   2. 2170 cell weighed 68.2g
4. Model 3 pack-level GED is calculated at 149 wh/kg
5. measured 2170 cell capacity around 4.45 amp hrs @ 0.25C discharge rate
   
6. a discharge curve was provided (see graph below)
7. This chart incorrectly states a figure for "Demonstrated Pack Capacity". This is calculated and inferred, not "Demonstated" (there are other losses in the pack)
   
8. Jack likely slightly underestimates the 2170 cell's energy capacity:
   1. he uses end-pt voltages for each 5 min time slice rather than the avg
      
   2. he stops the discharge at 2.8v instead of the industry-std 2.7v
   3. a more realistic energy capacity from his test is ~18.1wh (see pt 3 above)
   4. corresponding GED is 265 wh/kg at the cell level
9. Jack tested just one 2170 cell (with an unknown number cycles), and did not use automated test equipment, so results will vary when other groups attempt to reproduce this test.
10. Jack uses 3 digit precision while gathering data, then displays 5 digit precision in his results [face-palm]

Overall good effort well worth watching, my thanks to Jack for these first results. Why has it taken this long for the experimenter community to gather actual data?

Regards,
Lodger

 

[sparcs]

Anyone have ideas on timing of HW3 introduction? Expecting a significant bump in SP from that but maybe I am wrong.

I would not bet on any magical bump in share price. Maybe a temporary rise with the announcement.

The real HW3 value will be factored into Tesla's share price over a long period of time as they steadily release the software components. The hardware is useless without the software.

 

[Cherry Wine]

U.S. agency submits auto tariff probe report to White House | Reuters

@KarenRei

 

[Singer3000]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

“The National Automobile Dealers Association estimates that the tariffs would add as much as $2,270 to the cost of U.S.-built cars and $6,875 to the cost of imported cars and trucks.”

Retaliatory EU tariffs of 25% on US made autos would clearly be pretty ruinous for Model 3 European demand. Certainly I’d personally defer any purchase while it was in place. So tesla would be leaning on North American and Asian demand until resolved.

But do we have a view on what impact a new US auto parts tariff might have on Model 3’s gross margin for North American sales? The above quoted figure is an industry wide average, for ICE producers with globally integrated supply chains. Do we have much of a sense on the the proportion of Tesla’s high value components sourced from Japan or the EU and what this might add up to?

Can any Norwegians (or Icelandics) out there tell us whether a retaliatory EU tariff would be matched by the EEA?

As mentioned previously, the irony of a “no deal” Brexit is that it might be the only realistic way Tesla’s UK sales could escape such EU tariffs for the foreseeable future. (@Factchecking - you know you love a bit of no deal Brexit really ;-p)

Maybe my mood is lower because it’s a Monday but I can’t help but think the stock is going to hammered as this plays out, unless Tesla can give the market clear guidance at least on production costs. Otherwise the SR/non PUP gets pushed even further to the right - double whammy for demand when combined with European tariffs.

 

[Buckminster]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

“The National Automobile Dealers Association estimates that the tariffs would add as much as $2,270 to the cost of U.S.-built cars and $6,875 to the cost of imported cars and trucks.”

Retaliatory EU tariffs of 25% on US made autos would clearly be pretty ruinous for Model 3 European demand. Certainly I’d personally defer any purchase while it was in place. So tesla would be leaning on North American and Asian demand until resolved.

But do we have a view on what impact a new US auto parts tariff might have on Model 3’s gross margin for North American sales? The above quoted figure is an industry wide average, for ICE producers with globally integrated supply chains. Do we have much of a sense on the the proportion of Tesla’s high value components sourced from Japan or the EU and what this might add up to?

Can any Norwegians (or Icelandics) out there tell us whether a retaliatory EU tariff would be matched by the EEA?

As mentioned previously, the irony of a “no deal” Brexit is that it might be the only realistic way Tesla’s UK sales could escape such EU tariffs for the foreseeable future. (@Factchecking - you know you love a bit of no deal Brexit really ;-p)

Maybe my mood is lower because it’s a Monday but I can’t help but think the stock is going to hammered as this plays out, unless Tesla can give the market clear guidance at least on production costs. Otherwise the SR/non PUP gets pushed even further to the right - double whammy for demand when combined with European tariffs.

Leading import countries for German cars 2017 | Statistic
US is the German auto's biggest single market. 25% tariff would cripple them - they have more to lose, especially when you see which country is number 2! This is becoming a perfect storm:

1. Dieselgate
2. Tariffs
3. Move to EVs
4. Brexit
5. German economy narrowly missed going into recession

 

[AlexS]

Why then use the famous Jobs’ photo as his Twitter avatar? Look at his profile:

View attachment 378334 [

Maybe he really is an angel from the sky?

 

[avoigt]

"The performance and business model of the Tesla big battery has been a source of fascination for the industry since its opening more than 14 months ago. Tesla founder and CEO Elon Musk recently confirmed that the $95m facility was likely to pay itself back within a few years.

The battery, actually owned and operated by Neoen Australia, receives a $4m a year payment for providing grid services to the South Australia government"

Tesla big battery is holding its own in a burgeoning energy storage market | Giles Parkinson

 

[JRP3]

Overall good effort well worth watching, my thanks to Jack for these first results. Why has it taken this long for the experimenter community to gather actual data?

You have to be willing to destroy a module and it's not easy to extract a cell. I agree with your critique of his methods and also add that when OEMs disclose the density of their cells it's a brand new cell, cycled at a lower C rate and probably charged to a higher voltage. Don't use Jack's numbers when comparing to other data sheet numbers.

 

[RobStark]

What do you know about Rivian that we don't? Why are you so sure they will succeed?

1) I don't know more than what is publicly available about Rivian.

2) I am not sure they will succeed.

 

[lklundin]

An off colour approach to fight for a noble goal. It’s a grey area. Without resorting to raising the dead, the alternative would be shouting to the wind, as the vast majority of twitter users do. On balance, a positive influence, and I can’t help thinking that Jobs, of Apple fame, would have understood the need for zero emissions.

In other words:
"the end justifies the means".

 

[Fact Checking]

As mentioned previously, the irony of a “no deal” Brexit is that it might be the only realistic way Tesla’s UK sales could escape such EU tariffs for the foreseeable future. (@Factchecking - you know you love a bit of no deal Brexit really ;-p)

I "love" May's no-deal BRExit like I love radioactive rain after a nuclear strike, and UK automotive demand will possibly crash after a no-deal BRExit:

• The pound will further crash in value, making U.S. produced Tesla's more expensive to UK customers.
• European car parts and components going into US made cars will make US cars more expensive, even if they are sold in the UK.
• The UK will likely enter a recession (economic contraction) as EU related service and manufacturing jobs move to France, Germany and Ireland.
• Hundreds of thousands of Europeans will flee the UK, as the purchasing power of wages there adjusts downward and as unemployment and xenophobia rises - further contracting the UK economy.
• I'd not be surprised to see a 10%+ drop in U.K. new car purchases.

There's very little upside to anyone from a Brexit, and that includes Tesla sales. It's a lose-lose act of increased trade inefficiencies.

(The Murdochs will escape the pesky European media ownership anti-monopoly regulations, so the UK tabloid and TV industry might see a boom and further concentration of power and increase in political influence, so it's not all gloom and doom.)

Leading import countries for German cars 2017 | Statistic
US is the German auto's biggest single market. 25% tariff would cripple them - they have more to lose, especially when you see which country is number 2! This is becoming a perfect storm:

1. Dieselgate
2. Tariffs
3. Move to EVs
4. Brexit
5. German economy narrowly missed going into recession

The problem for Tesla is:

U.S. agency submits auto tariff probe report to White House | Reuters

"Automakers and parts suppliers are anticipating its recommendation options will include broad tariffs of up to 20 percent to 25 percent on assembled cars and parts, or narrower tariffs targeting components and technologies related to new energy cars, autonomous, internet-connected and shared vehicles."​

So even if Trump starts with "narrower" tariffs, it's already bad for Tesla - as @KarenRei suspected.

 

[KarenRei]

So, apparently the contents of the Commerce Department report on EU trade which empowers Trump to impose tariffs is going to be kept secret... unless of course Trump decides to speak or tweet about it:

U.S. agency submits auto tariff report probe to White House

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Commerce Department sent a report to U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday that could unleash steep tariffs on imported cars and auto parts, provoking a sharp backlash from the industry even before its contents are revealed.

A spokeswoman for the U.S. Commerce Department said late Sunday the agency would not disclose any details of the "Section 232" national security report.

Trump has 90 days to decide whether to act upon the recommendations, which auto industry officials expect to include at least some tariffs on fully assembled vehicles or on technologies and components related to electric, automated, connected and shared vehicles.

ED: More here:

U.S. agency submits auto tariff probe report to White House | Reuters

As the White House received the report, the industry unleashed what is expected to be a massive lobbying campaign against it.

...

Automakers and parts suppliers are anticipating its recommendation options will include broad tariffs of up to 20 percent to 25 percent on assembled cars and parts, or narrower tariffs targeting components and technologies related to new energy cars, autonomous, internet-connected and shared vehicles.

The Commerce Department alluded to a focus on emerging vehicle technologies when it opened the investigation.

ED2: Whoops, I just caught up (sorry, just woke up) and apparently everyone else has already posted this :Þ