Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZachF]

Canada Dollar got weak in a hurry. I’m assuming it was mostly due to oil price drop?

All the free-floating fossil fueled currencies (CAD, AUD, NOK, RUB, etc.) are getting hammered.

 

[Vines]

I think the bottom won't come until we see the peak of the virus effects here in the US. I hope I'm wrong, as we have seen a huge amount of damage already.
I'll get back in once I see those signals, that fear has reached a peak. Even if everything started winding down tomorrow (and I see it still winding up in the USA), the economic effects are delayed, and will be felt for several months.

I hope we never reach this true crisis point like Italy where people are regularly dying simply due to lack of health care resources. Maybe we started social distancing soon enough

Wife thinks we may see 280 again, I'd be just fine at her and myself being very wrong, and our infection severity never gets worse than Germany's. Gawd the shorts are going to be so emboldened, and have a bunch more dry powder, to further manipulate and drive down the stock.

Elon raising $2B a couple weeks ago was brilliant!

 

[SMAlset]

5.7 earthquake hit Salt Lake City area, damage to the labs working on the virus. Not what the country needs now. Power out to thousands. airport closed, aftershocks expected. Helpful if you have PW system installed.

Salt Lake City, Utah, earthquake: 5.7 magnitude temblor knocks out power for thousands - CNN

I know Tesla has offices in Draper, south of Salt Lake, and looks from the Shake map that they felt it. 5.7 is pretty good even by SFBay standards.

Tesla has a store and service center in Salt Lake, and Utah around that area has a number of Superchargers.

 

[marvinat0rz]

The Norwegian currency is falling so dramatically that my assumed dry powder is losing value faster than my stock market portfolio, even throughout today's crash. It's absolutely ludicrous. "May you live in interesting times", eh. I think NOK vs. USD is down 7% just today. There's bound to be some good opportunities at the end of this chaos.

A friend of mine bid for a house today, 7.5% below asking. Sellers declined. I think they'll wish for an offer like that really soon.

 

[Navin]

Moved things around and went long leaps yesterday. Last time I did that in sept 2019 - those went up over 1000% and are still up today. Good luck. Trade em well. My mindset is we are way oversold and unless the world is ending - Tesla will prevail and be in a much strong position given they are good and nimble and have dealt with all sorts of nonsense since they started. Plus - can imagine folks who travel via public transportation will want to switch and start buying their own transportation. Tesla will benefit here significantly

 

[TheTalkingMule]

TSLA is madness, but Boeing is unfathomable craziness. How is no one buying this?

Buffett is just loving life right now. Imagine the check he's willing to write Boeing.

 

[canoemore]

TSLA is madness, but Boeing is unfathomable craziness. How is no one buying this?

Buffett is just loving life right now. Imagine the check he's willing to write Boeing.

This may be a naive question, but if Boeing needs a bailout couldn't shareholders get wiped out?

 

[ninpb]

Ford $4.43...nuts...how do any of these US autos recover from this except via bailouts?

Bailout and you can bet they would also push for lowering emissions targets.

 

[Krugerrand]

I believe Tesla will be nimble and create even more separation with legacy auto makers. But into what global economy?

Either a global economy exists and Tesla will be a significant part of it having been nimble and creating even more separation with legacy automakers or Tesla isn’t nimble etc... and won’t etc..., or the global economy will cease to exist and we’re all fertilizer.
These contradictions and irrational speculations are getting more prevalent in number, insanity and hilarity.
All of this I’m positive Tesla is going to be fine but I’m not buying because the future is uncertain: It’s like saying chicken is good for you, I love chicken it tastes so yummy, but I won’t eat chicken because I might choke on a bone or get salmonella.
Either you’re lying about your true thoughts and opinions about Tesla, perhaps simply to yourself or you’ve no common sense, creativity or forethought to conceive of a likely future beyond your chicken irrationalities.
This is what knowledgeable, intelligent, rational people say; I believe Tesla will continue to be nimble and innovate as fast as they can, creating more separation with legacy automakers. Tesla will have learned further valuable lessons about vertical integration, logistics, line design conducive to protecting employees further, weaknesses in their business that need addressing, and so on...
The global economy will be changed post this pandemic, having exposed both weak and strong companies/industries. Global resources and focus will thusly shift (hopefully) accordingly.
Blah, blah, blah, yadda, yadda, yadda. Place your bet. The end.

 

[SOULPEDL]

That comparison is a bit unfair IMO, alley cats have a lot of ethics, as I'm sure @Krugerrand can confirm.

They are also wonderful hosts on their islands, waiting for more guests to arrive.

View attachment 523067

Looks like Yoda if he were a cat, lol.

 

[Fact Checking]

Interesting:

Ford, GM and Fiat Chrysler will close all factories amid coronavirus outbreak, sources say

Ford, General Motors and Fiat Chrysler will close all of their factoris due to worker fears about the coronavirus, sources tell 7 Action News.

The details of the closure are expected to be released later Wednesday, and the closures could come as early as Wednesday.

Sources say that FCA was planning to make the announcement, but all of the Big 3 will now join them in closing.

It is not known how long the shutdowns will last.​

Some of their plants already had coronavirus cases.

 

[Rammstein]

I have been buying call options every day until yesterday and finally ran out of cash. Now it is all wait and watch for me and holding my 100% call position in $tsla which is down 75% from the top on February 4, 2020

I have a very strong feeling that we are at a near the bottom and this is the selling climax today or sometime this week

What strike price and what date are you picking?

 

[StealthP3D]

Note that the leak comes from the White House, which suggests that the administration is considering this seriously.

Could signal the global market bottom if the coronavirus infection rate in the US does not blow out next week.

Don't you expect the infection rate to "blow out" next week? I do. But I'm not sure that's what will drive stock prices because a "blow out" in the infection rate might already be largely priced in.

Here's what I do know: Market bottoms are largely unpredictable even if you have an above-average ability to connect the dots and you have a lot of information to work with. That doesn't mean I don't appreciate news like this - I do and, if it happens, it could very well be the catalyst that precipitates the market bottom. But we won't know until after the fact.

 

[Zero CO2]

I just picked up another 10 shares. I have been doing this as the price has fallen over the last few weeks. This is my strategy, to accumulate piecemeal as prices fall. I don't know where the bottom is, but I take comfort in knowing I am adding to my ownership of this great company, on the cheap.

same exact strategy started at accumulating at $726.. might pick up 20 shares today

 

[TheGrimSweeper]

Interesting:

Ford, GM and Fiat Chrysler will close all factories amid coronavirus outbreak, sources say

Ford, General Motors and Fiat Chrysler will close all of their factoris due to worker fears about the coronavirus, sources tell 7 Action News.

The details of the closure are expected to be released later Wednesday, and the closures could come as early as Wednesday.

Sources say that FCA was planning to make the announcement, but all of the Big 3 will now join them in closing.

It is not known how long the shutdowns will last.​

Some of their plants already had coronavirus cases.

Didn't yesterday they announced they reached an agreement with UAW to stay open? This stuff changes by the second.

 

[Hock1]

I can't fault anyone for selling higher than TSLA is at right now, and I think it can fall further.

Worse scenarios include...
* the stock market closes altogether so you can't even sell the stock you've got.
* all stocks fall a long way further down... TSLA to $150 (can't really see it below that)
* Tesla being unable to continue selling cars, either because factory supply issues, transportation, or sales/delivery staff outages
* Continued COVID-19 news dominating the cycle and overwhelming any good news that might be coming out of Tesla. After steeping myself in the news cycle over the weekend, I can't imagine TSLA ending Monday higher than Friday.
* The bad macro conditions could continue to dog TSLA all the way through to the end of the month. I wouldn't be surprised if the first real positive moves we see aren't delayed until the vehicle deliveries announcement around April 2nd/3rd. By this time, the USA (being the biggest victim of the virus due to nationwide hubris and policy delay) may be in an even worse shape to absorb great press releases from Tesla.

I see dirty short sellers breathing a sigh of relief due to COVID-19 - nothing to do with the affairs of Tesla the company - and getting the hell out of there.

However... once the rebound is ready to happen, the market will respond to an amazing amount of positive press and see that Tesla is in fact in better shape then any of the other manufacturers. Not only with auto production, but solar and battery products going well. The other manufacturers will be struggling with lots full of cars, dealerships complaining, and dwindling cash-in-the-bank.

I am confident TSLA will be passing through $900 during 2020.

This is interesting:

https://nypost.com/2020/03/17/wall-street-investors-urge-white-house-to-curb-short-sellers/

"Wall Street investors urge White House to curb short sellers"

The White House is fielding calls from Wall Street to rein in short sellers as the stock market continues to tumble, sources told The Post.

Specifically, several prominent investors and executives have asked the Trump administration to bring back a legacy securities regulation called the “uptick rule,” according to a White House adviser.​

This would hurt Tesla short sellers particularly, because options writers couldn't be delta hedging puts as easily anymore, which would drive up the price of puts.

Which could start a special type of short squeeze.

Note that the leak comes from the White House, which suggests that the administration is considering this seriously.

Could signal the global market bottom if the coronavirus infection rate in the US does not blow out next week.

Not advice.

(Cc: @Artful Dodger and @Hock1)

The only way this would help Tesla (and other targeted companies) would be if the Market Maker Exemption for naked short sales was specifically "curbed", IMO.

 

[saniflash]

circuit breaker

 

[tslagreen]

I agree that we are near the bottom if fundamentals do not further deteriorate.

Like the sentiment, but what makes you think that?

 

[SOULPEDL]

I believe Tesla will continue to be nimble and innovate as fast as they can, creating more separation with legacy automakers. Tesla will have learned further valuable lessons about vertical integration, logistics, line design conducive to protecting employees further, weaknesses in their business that need addressing, and so on...

This absolutely makes Tesla street smart and work hardened. I teared up when I read the Fremont parking lot was full of cars this morning then realized it was the employee lot and not an inventory lot. He leads by example and is heroic in this way.

I was thinking earlier about how non-Elon companies operate by comparison. Boeing vs SpaceX, Ford vs Tesla, it's the old vs new all around. It's where employees work for the same real mission, I'm actually sorry I was born too late to get in and help out as a 1st hand on deck, but it's harder than getting into Harvard, I tried. And to them, this virus is another hiccup among many we've seen that threaten their existence or a BK in the past.

I couldn't be more proud to help them out this morning, but I will pause cautiously.

And I call bottom

 

[Artful Dodger]

$388 seems rediculously cheap. Maybe this is assuming a q1 profit miss from an unconfirmed shutdown in Fremont?

RBC set their price target at $380 just 2 days ago, along with a revised 2020 Deliveries estimate of 364.6K autos: (1% less than 2019 deliveries)

Tesla price target, delivery estimates cut at RBC on concerns about 'very low' second-quarter demand

This seems to already be pricing in an extended shutdown at Fremont. Market pretty much shrugged off this morning's news.

However, I doubt if Spak's GF3 numbers are credible, if included at all.