Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[vikings123]

If they can get a 35K SR back on the menu in the US.. that would help.
.

When do we expect Tesla to design and build the equivalent of the ID 3.0 which can sell In the 25K range.

Are we still years out or do you think we will see this 25K model in China before it hits the US? would come in handy during times of recession.

 

[sparcs]

BillWright on Twitter

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I don't know about the Tesla side, but the Panasonic side planning to start ramping down operations next week and being down for 14 days seemed pretty authoritative:

Tesla partner Panasonic is shutting down its operations at Nevada gigafactory – TechCrunch

Techcrunch reporter replied via tweet: Kirsten Korosec on Twitter

Hey there. I can only speak to the direct conversations I had with Panasonic officials who should in the record. They would not comment on Tesla employees. But said the wind down with Panasonic workers is happening. I will certainly follow-up with them.
6:47 PM · Mar 21, 2020

 

[BornToFly]

Apologies if this has been posted already an excellent data analysis on cv-19 focusing on the right metrics
after reviewing I realize I need to get more aggressive on these TSLA discount shares... this line of thinking has been rattling around in my head but this young man took the time and did the work with a lot of visual aids
Evidence over hysteria — COVID-19

Sorry, the author Aaron is a moron and should spend a weekend in an Italian hospital where 8% of healthcare workers who have gotten the virus have died. He says the death rate in the US is declining and we should start re-opening everything. Maybe if he can't go to Italy he should go volunteer in a hospital in New York and take his parents with him. idiot.

 

[EinSV]

Techcrunch reporter replied via tweet: Kirsten Korosec on Twitter

Kirsten's Techcrunch article says Panasonic plans to close for two weeks. Doesn't seem like a big deal.

 

[Thekiwi]

In the old joke about two men running from a bear, one man says to the other: "I don't have to outrun the bear. I only have to outrun you."

Tesla doesn't have to grow as fast now as before the panic (although it might). It only has to be a better investment than the alternatives.

Replace “bear” with “Tsunami”, and you might have a closer metaphor to the current situation.

 

[MP3Mike]

If they can get a 35K SR back on the menu in the US.. that would help.

While it isn't on the menu it is still available to order...

 

[MC3OZ]

When do we expect Tesla to design and build the equivalent of the ID 3.0 which can sell In the 25K range.

Are we still years out or do you think we will see this 25K model in China before it hits the US? would come in handy during times of recession.

I think it is a few years away possibly 3 years for China, and a year after that for the US, but we don't know.

I also forgot to mention that iMO the Model Y, Plaid Model S, Cybertruck and Semi have a certain level of latent demand, partially because the products are not yet available or not available in high numbers.

Model 3 and Semi and competing on the basis of value for money.

Plaid Model S is competing from the point of view of being a desirable product.

Model Y & Cybertruck a mixture of desirability and value for money..

So provided Tesla can avoid it, keeping these projects on track and not delaying them is important.

Even in a recession it is important to get Plaid Model S to market, there will be some high end customers doing very well out smart well timed moves in the stock market, It will only take a small turn around for them to realise significant gains and have some cash to spent.

I don't really buy into broad generalisations yes the market for luxury car may drop but it never drops to zero, being the most desirable product in a market segment is a big advantage at any state of the economic cycle.

 

[MC3OZ]

While it isn't on the menu it is still available to order...

What I'm hoping they can do is find a few more savings have more equipment depreciation and sell/lease it on menu for a small profit.

In the 25K-40K price band even a 1-2K drop in price is a demand driver, this is a segment where price is a big consideration for most buyers.

 

[FrankSG]

When do we expect Tesla to design and build the equivalent of the ID 3.0 which can sell In the 25K range.

Are we still years out or do you think we will see this 25K model in China before it hits the US? would come in handy during times of recession.

After they finish designing, building, and ramping more profitable vehicles like the MY, Semi, and Cybertruck.

 

[lafrisbee]

I ain't that bright, so why hasn't anyone posted this and told me what they feel about it?
It sounds good as fudge to me...
"
Wall Street will be looking for positivity from TSLA as it approaches its next earnings report date. On that day, TSLA is projected to report earnings of $0.78 per share, which would represent year-over-year growth of 126.9%. Our most recent consensus estimate is calling for quarterly revenue of $6.42 billion, up 41.29% from the year-ago period.

For the full year, our Zacks Consensus Estimates are projecting earnings of $7.90 per share and revenue of $31.75 billion, which would represent changes of +5976.92% and +29.18%, respectively, from the prior year."


Tesla (TSLA) Stock Moves -0.03%: What You Should Know

 

[Artful Dodger]

After they finish designing, building, and ramping more profitable vehicles like the MY, Semi, and Cybertruck.

There's no financial reason to hold back on developing and manufacturing the MIC "World Car".

With a China design studio, Gov't and State Bank backing, and multiple Chinese cities clamouring for the next Tesla Gigafactory, there's really no precondition of rollouts of other Tesla vehicles before this project.

What's more, the intended "World Car" would tap into a potential market of millions of units per year, and not just for China (as the project name implies).

Finally, if there is an economic downturn over the next several quarters, that is the ideal time for Governments to invest in large infrasture projects as stimulus. The fact that both China and Tesla wanted to do it already is a bonus.

 

[PeterJA]

In the old joke about two men running from a bear, one man says to the other: "I don't have to outrun the bear. I only have to outrun you."

Tesla doesn't have to grow as fast now as before the panic (although it might). It only has to be a better investment than the alternatives.

Replace “bear” with “Tsunami”, and you might have a closer metaphor to the current situation.

I don't think so.

Even if the "current situation" is as bad as you seem to think, I doubt it is bad enough to kill both running men, i.e. both Tesla and investment alternatives.

I doubt that all the money looking for a safe haven in the post-panic world will simply evaporate rather than choose a company with Tesla's extraordinary advantages and potential.

 

[Opus BC fan]

Finally, if there is an economic downturn over the next several quarters, that is the ideal time for Governments to invest in large infrasture projects as stimulus. The fact that both they and Tesla wanted to do it already is a bonus.

Unfortunately, I think in the US that will be money spent on propping up coal, oil, legacy automakers, and Boeing...

 

[Dr. J]

Apologies if this has been posted already an excellent data analysis on cv-19 focusing on the right metrics
after reviewing I realize I need to get more aggressive on these TSLA discount shares... this line of thinking has been rattling around in my head but this young man took the time and did the work with a lot of visual aids
Evidence over hysteria — COVID-19

Be sure to read the comments-- they pick it apart.

 

[vikings123]

There's no financial reason to hold back on developing and manufacturing the MIC "World Car".

With a China design studio, Gov't and State Bank backing, and multiple Chinese cities clamouring for the next Tesla Gigafactory, there's really no precondition of rollouts of other Tesla vehicles before this project.

What's more, the intended "World Car" would tap into a potential market of millions of units per year, and not just for China (as the project name implies).

Finally, if there is an economic downturn over the next several quarters, that is the ideal time for Governments to invest in large infrasture projects as stimulus. The fact that both China and Tesla wanted to do it already is a bonus.

Good stuff. Who coined the term “World car”?

 

[FrankSG]

There's no financial reason to hold back on developing and manufacturing the MIC "World Car".

Not financial, but there are talent bottlenecks. The new design studios will help for sure.

Maybe I should've worded it something like this:

"When Tesla can redirect enough talent towards a cheaper car project, without hampering progress of the MY, Semi, and Cybertruck projects."

 

[MP3Mike]

Good stuff. Who coined the term “World car”?

Elon but not directly. He said: "Something that would be super cool … So we’re going to do it … is to try to create a China design and engineering center to actually design an original car in China for worldwide consumption. I think this will be very exciting"

 

[dw4ngg]

Be sure to read the comments-- they pick it apart.

It’s since been removed.
What kind of comments were there? For those of us that missed them

 

[StealthP3D]

When do we expect Tesla to design and build the equivalent of the ID 3.0 which can sell In the 25K range.

Are we still years out or do you think we will see this 25K model in China before it hits the US? would come in handy during times of recession.

VW plans to sell the mid-range ID3 w/ about 200 EPA mile range for about 30,000 Euros (over $32K) but it's a compliance car which is why they won't be selling it in the US. They will also lose money on everyone they sell. It's size/cost and range means it would never make a profit in the US. I'm not sure it's in Tesla's best interest to start bottom fishing with small cars when they don't need the emissions credits and the batteries could be allotted more profitably on more valuable cars like the $39K Model 3.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Unfortunately, I think in the US that will be money spent on propping up coal, oil, legacy automakers, and Boeing...

Giga OK will be cheap to build for CT: no body shop, no paint, just cut, bend'n'weld then straight to final assembly. Hopefully with the new "roadrunner" pack design so they're cheap'n'fast to build in large quanities.

Sandy Munro estimated $125M CapEx for a CT factory (b4 a bty plant) with 600K/yr capacity (or just $30M for 50K/yr). Sandy compared this to the CapEx for a plant to build 600K/yr F150s at $615M. Tesla has huge leverage due to the CT design and materials choice (30X Stainless). The land for GF5 might cost as much as the CapEx for CT.

I think they build the 2nd Model Y plant as a follow-on phase there at the CT plant site, once Fremont is maxxed out and CT is creating FCF. However if Tesla is inclined to accelerate the 'Y' build out, Elon need just snap his fingers to pull $2B out of the thin air, more than enough to build another 10K/wk Model Y capacity at GF5. That takes Tesla to over 1M/yr capacity for Model Y, just for N. America. China will already have a 'Y' plant by then, and likely GF4 Berlin Phase 1 will also be pumping out 'Y's and FCF by then too.

I don't see $$$ as a problem. Its just letting the engineers do their thing now, and us patiently waiting.

Cheers!