Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cobbler]

M3 production looks like it is near it's peak production for this year in Fremont (add +/- 15% for a maximum of 7000 m3 cars which will be achieved at a slower pace, so near the end of the s-curve)

Let's hope Tesla Energy will show some promising ramp-ups (and price cuts!). Price of a Powerwall is very high when you compare it to a battery pack in terms of $/kwh

 

[Pezpunk]

so can we talk about the MMD (mandatory morning drop) and theories why it occurs with such regularity? i've seen several potential causes mentioned, but i'm no expert (i just hold the stock long, so it's all academic to me really). Seems like every day people are trying to match up the 10am-11am dip to some meager piece of news or some minor blip in the NASDAQ, but to me it seems way too regular to be based on actual news or macro forces. i know none of us know for sure, but which of these seem most plausible to you? :

1. evil conspiracy: big-money short sellers coordinate a big selloff to intentionally tank the price.
2. careless / disingenuous reporting: generally honest investors get hit by the day's fresh FUD over their morning coffee, react accordingly.
3. headline bots: same as above, except the bots don't drink coffee as far as i know.
4. it's all in our heads: there is no MMD, just an imagined pattern amongst the noise.
5. ???

#4 seems the easiest to confirm. is it possible to go back say 3 months and plot the stock's average deviation from opening price over time throughout the day?

 

[CorneliusXX]

Nice Chart from the NPR article.

View attachment 378804

Surprising how much the number of EV models tail off in years 2023-25.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Another story that’s a testament to the safety of these cars:

Tesla crashes into tree, catches fire in Alameda County

 

[AlexS]

Tesla stores in China are reportedly seeing a tsunami of Model 3 orders

cool stuff

 

[anthonyj]

so can we talk about the MMD (mandatory morning drop) and theories why it occurs with such regularity? i've seen several potential causes mentioned, but i'm no expert (i just hold the stock long, so it's all academic to me really). Seems like every day people are trying to match up the 10am-11am dip to some meager piece of news or some minor blip in the NASDAQ, but to me it seems way too regular to be based on actual news or macro forces. i know none of us know for sure, but which of these seem most plausible to you? :

1. evil conspiracy: big-money short sellers coordinate a big selloff to intentionally tank the price.
2. careless / disingenuous reporting: generally honest investors get hit by the day's fresh FUD over their morning coffee, react accordingly.
3. headline bots: same as above, except the bots don't drink coffee as far as i know.
4. it's all in our heads: there is no MMD, just an imagined pattern amongst the noise.
5. ???

#4 seems the easiest to confirm. is it possible to go back say 3 months and plot the stock's average deviation from opening price over time throughout the day?

The answer is simple. Tesla is a swing/day trading stock. It is traded based off resistance and support levels. It in 3-10 years long term holders might be rewarded with huge gains, but for now, it is trading in a range that even large institutions (T Rowe) are taking advantage of.

Intraday rallies on no news gets sold off/shorted by traders. Why do they do this? Because other people do it. Herd mentality. Which causes even more volatility, and may “scare” away potential long term investors into entering now rather than at the seemingly inevitable $250-280 (I really hope it doesn’t hit the bottom channel again...)

 

[kangarookid]

First they have 2 pages of vin numbers one for 2018 the other for 2019

The 2018 one is VIN TrimName MetroName Price(firstFound) Discount(firstFound) PurchasePrice(firs - Pastebin.com

If you take a vin from that page and replace it for the vin in the link

https://3.tesla.com/model3/order/5YJ3E1EB4JF188653#payment

And hit go it will ether give you an error message or give you a chance to buy the car.

You might try 30 or so and see how many fails you get.

I ran a script to check every single VIN that was listed in these two pages

Out of 10.8k total listed, 7k of the URLs work (presumably meaning that they are in inventory). About 3.3k from 2018 and 3.9k from 2019. Will be interesting to see how quickly these fall

 

[Cherry Wine]

The answer is simple. Tesla is a swing/day trading stock. It is traded based off resistance and support levels. It in 3-10 years long term holders might be rewarded with huge gains, but for now, it is trading in a range that even large institutions (T Rowe) are taking advantage of.

Intraday rallies on no news gets sold off/shorted by traders. Why do they do this? Because other people do it. Herd mentality. Which causes even more volatility, and may “scare” away potential long term investors into entering now rather than at the seemingly inevitable $250-280 (I really hope it doesn’t hit the bottom channel again...)

Volatility has dropped a lot since the Q4 call.

 

[replicant]

Another story that’s a testament to the safety of these cars:

Tesla crashes into tree, catches fire in Alameda County

Yet another website that does not care about their readers' privacy. They prefer to block all 512 millions of UE citizens from accessing their website than not collecting people's data with their consent. It's telling.

 

[Anstandswauwau]

Tesla stores in China are reportedly seeing a tsunami of Model 3 orders

cool stuff

Don't want to be a party pooper, but there are 24 Tesla Stores in China * 20 - 25 cars per weekday = 2400 - 3000 cars per week

Tsunami? Seriously?

 

[Cherry Wine]

Yet another website that does not care about their readers' privacy. They prefer to block all 512 millions of UE citizens from accessing their website than not collecting people's data with their consent. It's telling.

Here:

A Tesla crashed into a tree Monday morning in Alameda County, catching fire and crumpling the vehicle into a metal ball, but the driver was able to walk away, police said.

...

"The driver is very fortunate to have been able to walk away from this with only minor injuries," Fremont police said in a tweet.

 

[kangarookid]

I ran a script to check every single VIN that was listed in these two pages

Out of 10.8k total listed, 7k of the URLs work (presumably meaning that they are in inventory). About 3.3k from 2018 and 3.9k from 2019. Will be interesting to see how quickly these fall

Replying to my own comment.. what I'm not sure how to reconcile is that Telsa said they had 1,010 Model 3s in inventory at the end of 2018. Any thoughts?

 

[Pezpunk]

Don't want to be a party pooper, but there are 24 Tesla Stores in China * 20 - 25 cars per weekday = 2400 - 3000 cars per week

Tsunami? Seriously?

just taking the lower bounds of those numbers, that equates to over 100k cars a year. that seems awesome to me. why the eyeroll?

 

[EVNow]

1. evil conspiracy: big-money short sellers coordinate a big selloff to intentionally tank the price.

Whenever there is no news - and the stock goes down a lot on a tick opposite to Nasdaq, on big volume - I think is someone trying to bring the price down. If I was just selling because I've hit the price I wanted, I wouldn't sell a lot so as to bring the price down. For eg. 10:54 to 10:56, in 3 minutes the price went down from 308 to 306.75. Volume was 70k. Nasdaq was flat.

There have been multiple such events today.

We don't know if there is co-ordination or not. There doesn't have to be - someone just starts buying at the bid price, price falls and bots and other shorts see this as a signal and pile on.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Don't want to be a party pooper, but there are 24 Tesla Stores in China * 20 - 25 cars per weekday = 2400 - 3000 cars per week

Tsunami? Seriously?

52x3000 = 156k vehicles per year just ordered through stores - i.e. excluding online orders. That's a tsunami compared to last year and to Tesla's target of max 400k vehicles this year.

 

[schonelucht]

Replying to my own comment.. what I'm not sure how to reconcile is that Telsa said they had 1,010 Model 3s in inventory at the end of 2018. Any thoughts?

Wouldn't be the first time that the website returns bogus information. And that list is pulled from an unexposed url no less. For all we know it's running against a non-production backend and a lot of data is stale. I would be highly skeptical of its correctness.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Don't want to be a party pooper, but there are 24 Tesla Stores in China * 20 - 25 cars per weekday = 2400 - 3000 cars per week

Tsunami? Seriously?

That’s half the total worldwide production.

 

[EVNow]

That’s half the total worldwide production.

Guessing, there are also people ordering from home without coming to the store … ?

 

[Anstandswauwau]

just taking the lower bounds of those numbers (which i don't put a lot of stock into to be honest) equates to over 100k cars a year. that seems awesome to me. why the eyeroll?

That's not how it works, though. Naïvely extrapolating the sales of hot, new item during phase-in is a foolish thing to do.

Plus, China has >130.000.000 potential customers for the Model 3 in China, according to Vincent.

In a market like that, 3.000 cars per week are alright – even very good for western standards – but far from being a ****ing Tsunami.

Context.

 

[AlexS]

Anyone with Bloomberg subscription can tell what this article is about?
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?