Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[junas]

After 3 years of only buying I also unloaded my non-core shares recently and bought some Amazon, Netflix and JD.com. These are the companies I believed benefit most from COVID-19. I'd have never sold any TSLA without seeing good enough alternatives for the money. Still roughly 50% in TSLA.

Initial plan was to convert all these back to TSLA common stock or leaps if price dips further. Now it's pretty clear those initially planned ~400 TSLA buying levels are just dreaming. Probably going to ride these virus-stocks for a while. Two of them just broke ATHs today so things could be worse. At least I don't feel like complete idiot unless TSLA hits $1000 this week.

 

[traxila]

If it makes anyone feel any better I bought $120K worth of shares at $573 on Thursday right before market close. I was feeling really bullish after a positive week. During the weekend I read so much negative economic news about the economy that I was afraid the stock was going to plummet Monday morning. So Monday morning comes and I'm so relieved that the share price is up $10 at open that I sold it all, went for bike ride to calm my nerves after a fretful weekend. Boy what a mistake, do I feel dumb. I get the prize for dumbest member of TMC.

Nah, you made money. Reset and wait.

I have the same problem all the time...lack of conviction...

 

[ggr]

Magic number?

With current share holders, at share price does Tesla become more valuable than Toyota?

Asking for a friend...

Well, that depends entirely on how badly Toyota does ;-).

 

[dl003]

Not TSLA but FUV got a nice little bump today due to their earnings.

I think we will know when Tesla starts to hit the low growth phase. That's when you start peeling shares away and selling to buyers who want to buy a blue chip/stable company.

When I think "alien dreadnought", stable is such a foreign concept

 

[Artful Dodger]

Magic number?

With current share holders, at share price does Tesla become more valuable than Toyota?

Asking for a friend...

TSLA (184.39M shares outstanding) needs to reach $1,094.26 per share to beat NYSE:TM (Toyota closed today @ $201.77B market cap).

So, Tuesday?

 

[Zero CO2]

Two sides to every coin!

I'm simultaneously a member of the "never sold a share of TSLA" club and the "never realized any TSLA gains" club.

That being said, never selling has let me accumulate at a nice low basis without worrying too much about timing my buys correctly. Only issue is I only ever see an upside, so I have no exit strategy. Why sell at $700 when it could be $1,400 by the end of the year? Why sell at $1,400 when it could be $2,800 after that...

I am in the same club .... it is a great club to be in ...
1) The vision is sound
2) the execution is improving
3) the leadership is excellent
4) the products are best in class
5) the supply is battery constrained
6) the future is EV and autonomy

all blue sky baby

the exit strategy is when you think the above has changed you develop an exit strategy until then you accumulate on the dips

 

[Zero CO2]

After 3 years of only buying I also unloaded my non-core shares recently and bought some Amazon, Netflix and JD.com. These are the companies I believed benefit most from COVID-19. I'd have never sold any TSLA without seeing good enough alternatives for the money. Still roughly 50% in TSLA.

Initial plan was to convert all these back to TSLA common stock or leaps if price dips further. Now it's pretty clear those initially planned ~400 TSLA buying levels are just dreaming. Probably going to ride these virus-stocks for a while. Two of them just broke ATHs today so things could be worse. At least I don't feel like complete idiot unless TSLA hits $1000 this week.

"you just might" .. feel like a complete idiot ...

 

[RandomJohnny]

I just want to applaud the mods for making a separate thread for the coronavirus. If I remember correctly, there was some debate about its relevance to tsla, etc, etc. It has to be one of the worst threads on the internet. It isn't even bad enough to find entertaining. I think it has an infection. I'm actually hoping they create a vaccine for the thread before the coronavirus. Skip the so-called "safety" trials and just inject that thread already.

 

[MC3OZ]

In relation to the discussion on Munro this is an additional consideration; view this video from around 6:10 on wards:-

"All robots are connected, each time a robot put in a screw it takes a picture and up loads it to the central database."

 

[Artful Dodger]

Lol, the Market just CAN NOT value TSLA, can they?

SP $730.06 After-hrs at 6:49 pm ET

Purple curve is the NASDAQ-100 (After-hrs use QQQ)

 

[SOULPEDL]

Lol, the Market just CAN NOT value TSLA, can they?

SP $730.06 After-hrs at 6:49 pm ET

View attachment 532429

It's not over yet... (Don't Look)

 

[Artful Dodger]

It's not over yet... (Don't Look)

Yup, something's up.

Closed: Apr. 14, 6:57 p.m. EDT
After hours 735.80 +25.91 (3.65%)​

Could be this:

Missouri city offers $1 billion in incentives for Tesla Cybertruck factory | CNBC.com

EDIT: Serious Volume being traded: 153,744 Shares in 20 min beginning at 18:41 hrs ET (avg 7.5K/min)

EDIT2: Still climbing, SP is above the main session's Intraday High now:

Closed: Apr. 14, 7:10 p.m. ED
After hours 748.01 +38.12 (5.37%)​

 

[djy]

Yup, something's up.

Closed: Apr. 14, 6:57 p.m. EDT
After hours 735.80 +25.91 (3.65%)​

Goldman Sachs initiates buy rating at $864.

 

[PeterJA]

Hi, it’s me again, the (dis)obedient son of his parents

Previously my parents were mad that I didn’t sell at 700 or 600 or 500ish price ahead of the pandemic or during the drop.
Yesterday my dad asked me to sell again. I said I will ask God to confirm.

I just got His inspiration that I should have a long term view. Unless I am sure this $720 price now is the highest point in 2 years or it could drop back to $560 (wow, SP of two days ago), I shouldn’t sell because the tax won’t allow me to buy same number of shares back.

For #1, my major idea against it is, since the economy is hurt already, even after Fremont factory open (can postpone again) and restore of economy, will there be people willing to buy new and expensive cars? I think the pandemic will greatly change the way people travel and commute.

For #2, this rally now is too fast, very similar to the one before. It must be some kind of short squeeze and price is likely to drop to $560, or even lower, one the “sell on news” phase start. I am worried that Elon will have to adjust the guidance in the ER.

What do you say? “People bought more private cars after SARS” was the reason I didn’t sell during the previous downturn. “however, when you figure you can buy a Camry or an Accord Hybrid for around 1/2 the price of a Tesla it doesnt make much sense for the average buyer.”

TE could play a game changer slowly, or never happen.
RobotTaxi... I don’t know, could it reduce the car sales badly?

I see you released the Kruger-aken on yourself, so I'll try to refrain from slapping you more. (Note: This is a forward-looking statement subject to risks and uncertainties.)

Specific answers:

1) "[After corona] will there be people willing to buy new and expensive cars?"
There sure as hell are in China. (Google the March deliveries.) Do you think the rest of the world won't follow the pattern of the nation that got hit first?

2) "price is likely to drop to $560, or even lower"
If you think you can time the market, have at it. How did it work out before?

3) "worried that Elon will have to adjust the guidance in the ER"
Highly unlikely, since the guidance was quite conservative, Fremont reopens May 4, and Giga China is ramping like Chanos's worst nightmare.

4) "you can buy a Camry or an Accord Hybrid for around 1/2 the price of a Tesla it doesnt make much sense for the average buyer"
You can buy a skateboard for even less, but it hasn't hurt Tesla sales so far. Tesla buyers don't work at Walmart (yet).

5) "TE could play a game changer slowly, or never happen."
It's already happening. Google "Megapack project".

6) "RobotTaxi... I don’t know, could it reduce the car sales badly?"
Dude, google "Tesla Autonomy Day" and learn about the economics of robotaxis. When Tesla Network is unleashed, I won't care if car sales reduce to zero. Tesla could keep all production for their own fleet (but they won't because of their mission).

General answer (yet again):

Tell Dad thanks for his concern, ignore him, buy and hold.

 

[StealthP3D]

I'm simultaneously a member of the "never sold a share of TSLA" club and the "never realized any TSLA gains" club.

Congrats! That's a good club to be in. While there will always be some vocal people who say long-term buying and holding is sub-optimal, and, at first blush, it seems to make sense to buy low and sell high, the trick is in the execution and being able to do it consistently enough to beat the buy/holders. These people who promote active trading are rarely multi-millionaires (unless they are trading other people's money for a fee). I believe in active stock-picking but not active stock timing (and there is a huge difference). It's much easier to pick winning companies than it is to predict when the market will value them higher or lower. I suggest focussing on the former, not the latter.

This all reminds me of a hard-working (but officially retired) couple that I knew through the build-up leading to the housing market crash. During those times it was very popular to flip houses. They would buy a regular middle-class house and proceed to work on it night and day (remodeling it). About a year or two later they would sell it for a profit and repeat. They did this about 4 or 5 times, buying a more expensive house each time (of course, because housing prices were rising) until the housing market crashed and they lost money for their sweat and labor, at least on that house.

It turns out they could have just kept the first house they bought, rented it to a family over the next 7 or 8 years instead of frantically remodeling and house flipping. They could have avoided all the work of installing new carpets, sheetrock, appliances, tile, paint, removing walls, replacing doors, etc. and came out far ahead economically with plenty of time and energy left over to be productive in other ways, either for pleasure or gain. That first house appreciated almost as much as the cumulative houses they flipped. The rent payments would have put them far ahead.

Actively trading stocks is like that. It's a lot of work, worry and stress and is unlikely to outperform those who buy and hold good companies.

That being said, never selling has let me accumulate at a nice low basis without worrying too much about timing my buys correctly. Only issue is I only ever see an upside, so I have no exit strategy. Why sell at $700 when it could be $1,400 by the end of the year? Why sell at $1,400 when it could be $2,800 after that...

Exactly! I have only a small doubt that Tesla will trade well below its current price before the year is out. But I have no plans to sell a single share at this price because I also have no doubt it will be worth a lot more in a few years. And there is always the chance that it doesn't go back down. That's not a chance I want to take. I would be more likely to buy more if it goes down. If I want to speculate that it's going higher, I'll buy some calls. But they are not priced favorably right now so that's a non-starter.

Sitting tight for now.

 

[Quesder]

Yup, something's up.

Closed: Apr. 14, 6:57 p.m. EDT
After hours 735.80 +25.91 (3.65%)​

It can't be this:

California Gov. Gavin Newsom unveils guide to lifting state's coronavirus restrictions

It is $739 now
I kicked my ass when I didn’t sell at $736 today

for the California thing, if it is a good news now, then when it doesn’t work on that date, it becomes a bad news.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Yup, something's up.

Closed: Apr. 14, 6:57 p.m. EDT
After hours 735.80 +25.91 (3.65%)​

This job used to be 6.5 hours. But now there's 9.5 hours of extra time every day? I'm pretty sure 16 hour workdays are outlawed almost everywhere. We need an union.

 

[Mkorpal]

Wow, tomorrow is going to be interesting.

 

[Mo City]

Oppenheimer blew up Monday.

Credit Suisse blew up today.

Goldman Sachs and Gov. Gavin Newsom are already igniting tomorrow.

I'm really enjoying this.

 

[Quesder]

I see you released the Kruger-aken on yourself, so I'll try to refrain from slapping you more. (Note: This is a forward-looking statement subject to risks and uncertainties.)

Specific answers:

1) "[After corona] will there be people willing to buy new and expensive cars?"
There sure as hell are in China. (Google the March deliveries.) Do you think the rest of the world won't follow the pattern of the nation that got hit first?

2) "price is likely to drop to $560, or even lower"
If you think you can time the market, have at it. How did it work out before?

3) "worried that Elon will have to adjust the guidance in the ER"
Highly unlikely, since the guidance was quite conservative, Fremont reopens May 4, and Giga China is ramping like Chanos's worst nightmare.

4) "you can buy a Camry or an Accord Hybrid for around 1/2 the price of a Tesla it doesnt make much sense for the average buyer"
You can buy a skateboard for even less, but it hasn't hurt Tesla sales so far. Tesla buyers don't work at Walmart (yet).

5) "TE could play a game changer slowly, or never happen."
It's already happening. Google "Megapack project".

6) "RobotTaxi... I don’t know, could it reduce the car sales badly?"
Dude, google "Tesla Autonomy Day" and learn about the economics of robotaxis. When Tesla Network is unleashed, I won't care if car sales reduce to zero. Tesla could keep all production for their own fleet (but they won't because of their mission).

General answer (yet again):

Tell Dad thanks for his concern, ignore him, buy and hold.

Thanks. But, what is Kruger-aken?