Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cattledog]

I have no idea if Joplin has any advantages but I really hope Tesla stays out of Austin and Nashville. As a music fan these are by far the cities I have visited most in the US and I've seen both go from semi-sleepy musician friendly places with reasonable living costs transformed to highs that no musicians can afford anymore. It's already there in Austin and getting there in Nashville.

I get it that you can't put a GF in North Dakota but there must be places that start out on a much lower level of housing shortage and general living costs that could work.

Joplin metro is less than half the size of the Reno metro, where there were worker shortages and housing crunches. Brave attempt, but not going to happen.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

I do appreciate what Tesla is doing. But frankly the fact ventalitors is even a discussion point is honestly a waste of time. Mortality for someone on a vent is still 80-90%. Meanwhile millions of America's are just screwed. I've donated to food programs and done things that I can. I hope you all consider doing the same with some of what you've made on Tesla.

My entire portfolio was 50k in August. If I can afford to give thousands to those in need I know many of you can as well

I feel you, but unless you're a part of the teams trying to develop a vaccine or a cure or trying to keep people off the ventilators, there's literally NOTHING you can do to help them.

Instead focus your efforts on helping to make this a better world for the survivors to return to. There are plenty of despicable people trying to exploit this situation to preserve the fossil fuel industry (keystone pipeline protests are now banned during this "emergency") or the short sellers (look to see how many claim the ventilators were a PR stunt). Fight for your legislator's attention to take actions for the people and NOT the corporations. And take part in educating those who are ignorant about Tesla's mission and the need for it.

Although covid-19 is a tragedy on a global scale, the world had always been full of tragedies that collectively are much more devastating. Do what you can and don't let the depressing stuff drag you down.

 

[FrankSG]

Auto industry: China is giving cash to car buyers to revive sales crushed by coronavirus - CNN
Makes me wonder if US will follow suit or revive cash for clunkers.

Shanghai/China is going to be supply constrained for a while to come. They can't ramp production fast enough.

Keep in mind that China is still in early stages, and we haven't even really seen the "Tesla Effect" take place (worth of mouth and cars on the road convincing more people to buy).

I doubt we'll see any vehicles shipped from Shanghai to APAC for the foreseeable future.

 

[Pezpunk]

this was a pleasant surprise!

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

The US should just dig the grave of oil while they are down and set a deadline to have all combustion engines off the road. Let everyone know coronavirus started because of pollution (probably false) and say we like clean air.

Tell refineries they will now make only jet and rocket fuel for Elon Musk to go to mars a bunch. Sadly I don’t think we have enough batteries to get all gas powered cars off road anytime soon

SpaceX's raptor engine burns methane, so rocket fuel will soon be off the table. The shipping industry is trying to "clean up" by switching from bunker fuel to diesel, so the refineries still have a market there.

But longer term, the best use of oil is for making plastics, lubricants, and other petroleum products, since they're not burned. Since no CO2 would be released (decomposition is another matter) from their use, it could be looked as a way to sequester the carbon (plastics produced from synthesized methane).

If you want to partipate, there's an investment thread centered around the idea of shorting oil: Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla

 

[ZeApelido]

Does this mean your last few weeks of incessantly negative posts will turn positive?

I hope so. But I am just being honest in my assessments (whether they are right or wrong).

Following the coronavirus thread, I do believe there are going to be longish term effects on the economy. And I do believe demand in the U.S. for luxury vehicles is gonna be down for at least a quarter (check out Google trends for Tesla Model 3, and compare it to others - for instance it matches the drop for Lexus RX quite well).

But whether from realistic or unrealistic confidence in the economic recovery or quantitative easing, most vehicle stocks have followed the same pattern of drop and partial recovery - it's just Tesla's volatility meant a bigger drop / bigger recovery.

Basically, the market currently gives 0 farks about any short term demand issues for luxury vehicles.

 

[StealthP3D]

Well, not "my" chart but the interactive chart from NASDAQ. The plot shows intraday trading as the % change in SP vs. Opening ie: Open = Zero %

Look for the green print (top-center of the chart) to see the current daily % change in SP vs the previous Close:

^79.25 (12.17%)​

Using the data from that line as a double check, you can subtract "Change" from ""Last" to get the previous Close, but I presume you already have an easier way to get that.

Cheers!

OK. Every other chart I've looked at used the previous close to calculate % gain. The NASDAQ chart is using the opening price as the benchmark. I tend to ignore pre and post-market trading except as a curiosity but I can see why NASDAQ might not want to treat it that way.

 

[MC3OZ]

I hope so. But I am just being honest in my assessments (whether they are right or wrong).

Following the coronavirus thread, I do believe there are going to be longish term effects on the economy. And I do believe demand in the U.S. for luxury vehicles is gonna be down for at least a quarter (check out Google trends for Tesla Model 3, and compare it to others - for instance it matches the drop for Lexus RX quite well).

But whether from realistic or unrealistic confidence in the economic recovery or quantitative easing, most vehicle stocks have followed the same pattern of drop and partial recovery - it's just Tesla's volatility meant a bigger drop / bigger recovery.

Basically, the market currently gives 0 farks about any short term demand issues for luxury vehicles.

Describing Model 3/Y as luxury vehicles is wrong IMO.

I posted the Dave Lee video earlier, Papafox also mentioned it, it is an alternative explanation for the recent share price rise..
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable
IMO Dave is mostly right.

Google trends for Model 3 dropping is no surprise, Model Y and Cybertruck are probably more "fashionable" at present, most people have now seen a Model 3, many people know someone who drives one.

 

[Mo City]

Joplin metro is less than half the size of the Reno metro, where there were worker shortages and housing crunches. Brave attempt, but not going to happen.

Yep. Joplin's bid is nothing more than a publicity stunt they want other companies to notice.

In other words, it's about future opportunities.

 

[CaliBear1]

Monty Python - Four Yorkshiremen (Thirty years ago)

Dumbest? This barely gets you into the top 5,000!

I was so sure 1Q deliveries were going to juice SP that I bought a bunch of $500/$600 calls for the day after. SP barely moved......til a few days later. I bought so many far out of the money SolarCity LEAPs in 2015/16 the market makers must've thought I was clinically insane!

Pull this buy high, sell low stunt again a few times then get back to me for your ranking.

 

[Green Pete]

I feel you, but unless you're a part of the teams trying to develop a vaccine or a cure or trying to keep people off the ventilators, there's literally NOTHING you can do to help them.

Instead focus your efforts on helping to make this a better world for the survivors to return to. There are plenty of despicable people trying to exploit this situation to preserve the fossil fuel industry (keystone pipeline protests are now banned during this "emergency") or the short sellers (look to see how many claim the ventilators were a PR stunt). Fight for your legislator's attention to take actions for the people and NOT the corporations. And take part in educating those who are ignorant about Tesla's mission and the need for it.

Although covid-19 is a tragedy on a global scale, the world had always been full of tragedies that collectively are much more devastating. Do what you can and don't let the depressing stuff drag you down.

I have purchased thousands of N95 masks online from China and single use isolation gowns and DONATED them to local hospital where the staff were reusing the same mask for a week and using trash bags as protective gowns as well as donated to U.S. Hunger Relief Organization | Feeding America

So yes. There IS something you can do.

Telling yourself you can't do anything to help doesn't make it true

(To be clear, I think private individuals donating to for privately run hospitals to protect their workers - and by extension other patients and the community at large - is a terrible paradigm. But that's just where we are today)

Also, I could have had twice as many masks by now id the stupid FDA would allow KN95s. But if you aren't in America you could probably get your hands on some pretty easily.

Coronavirus: US Won't Allow Imports Of Millions Of KN95 Masks

 

[FrankSG]

Some excellent analysis by @DaveT . Sounds very likely that some people knew about the GS note last week, and profited $100M+ off of short term call options.

 

[XHabjab]

EVs already have powerful inverters to power the drive motor(s). The Cybertruck will have 120 V and 240V AC outlets in the truck bed to power tools and pumps but Tesla is keeping mum on the Amp rating of these outlets (so far). I would love to see a 20A 120V outlet and a 50A 240V outlet.

The drive inverters are already big enough to handle most homes, the biggest limitation is the storage capacity of the battery (considering it's wise to keep it in the 20%-80% range when used regularly in this application).

The "inverters" that interface to the drive motors are not so much inverters as switched DC devices (probably driving multi phase windings on the motors). A true inverter that converts battery power to AC power will switch at a particular fixed voltage and fixed frequency, and would interface to the single phase load through a transformer. The motor drivers do none of this and are not really adaptable to the task. They are likely wired directly to the motors, and are not likely usable for power conversion besides direct motor drive that they are designed for.

[me: electrical engineer, studied this kind of thing in college but not in professional life.]

 

[Krugerrand]

Thanks. But, what is Kruger-aken?

If you didn’t have me on ignore, you’d be wiser.

 

[mblakele]

Joplin doesn't have a big enough workforce. Now that Tesla has a higher profile, I doubt that they would want to limit the size of operations like they inadvertently did in Reno, a city double the size.

Think rather about locations outside bigger cities.

You may be right, and frankly I don't much care where the next USA factory goes. But I don't think Joplin would be impossible. One difference between Joplin and Reno is that Joplin is surrounded by larger cities, while Reno is kind of in the middle of nowhere. Reno would have to pull workers in from California, while Joplin could attract workers moving in from nearby cities all around it: Memphis, Oklahoma City, Kansas City, St Louis, and other smaller places. It's too far to commute: they'd have to move for the job. But plenty of people moved to Detroit for jobs, back in the day.

 

[T3slaLuv]

Anyone buying at this price? Is it to high to buy in?

 

[Green Pete]

Anyone buying at this price? Is it to high to buy in?

How long you willing to hold? If more than a year, probably not. If less than a year, who knows. Im buying, and holding. And buying calls and leap calls.

Not advice, just my opinion.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Anyone buying at this price? Is it to high to buy in?

Depends on where you think it will go and your short and long term expectations. Everyone will look at it differently.
If you're long...how long?
If you're short...well, good luck. No, let me rephrase. If you're short...I have no sympathy. Sorry.

Dan

 

[T3slaLuv]

Depends on where you think it will go and your short and long term expectations. Everyone will look at it differently.
If you're long...how long?
If you're short...well, good luck. No, let me rephrase. If you're short...I have no sympathy. Sorry.

Dan

I’m willing to hold for years

 

[T3slaLuv]

How long you willing to hold? If more than a year, probably not. If less than a year, who knows. Im buying, and holding. And buying calls and leap calls.

Not advice, just my opinion.

Willing to hold for years