Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dw4ngg]

Why is every TSLA earnings such an adventure lol

I picked up a few calls Friday which are up 50% after today. I'm debating whether I should hold through earnings or sell them tomorrow or Wednesday before the market closes.

Hold them. Don’t be a...... err don’t lack courage

 

[PeterJA]

500,000 cars going through 4 intersections per trip 2 trips a day (super pessimistic). thats 3 million a day....

It's 4 million a day = 25 days to reach 100 million. But most commuters commute 5 days per week, so I agree with your one-month estimate, assuming commuting resumes.

 

[RobStark]

Precise date doesn't matter, but how Cali treats reopening matters. Given they have one of the lowest death per capita from the virus and are extending orders still, then that means they will be the first to shut down if there's a hint of a flair up(which there will be). Given how conservative they are treating this, people will be pricing in extreme uncertainty for 2020. Even if the vaccine comes out, they may remain closed until X amount of people gets it.

Compare to other states who are opening non essential businesses like bowling alley dispite having high deaths per capita.

Florida is opening soon and we have a higher death per capita than Cali. You know how many Covid pts are in my hospital of 900 beds? One, and we have mid teens amount of pt in our entire hospital system in central FL..so I can imagine Cali barely has any in their hospital. Our hospital already furloughed 20% of the employees and took down our Covid tent which was never used. Our admission rate is only 60% pre Covid. We have flatten the curve so much that we are going bankrupt.

Well, you should be getting plenty of customers from the bowling alleys and beaches soon.

No need to despair about bankwuptcy.

 

[Krugerrand]

Looks like less catsup by the minute.

$798.75

Happy Dance!

 

[avoigt]

Sounds like officially the order in Alameda is extended but I also read that the President has declared Auto Manufacturing as essential business which would exclude them. That makes the situation unclear at least.

Tesla has called the workers now to stay at home. Its been a smaller group anyway likely to get all prep up for a restart but that seems to be delayed now.

Anybody having more news?

http://www.acphd.org/media/571922/press-release-2020.04.27.pdf

 

[ggr]

Why is every TSLA earnings such an adventure lol

I picked up a few calls Friday which are up 50% after today. I'm debating whether I should hold through earnings or sell them tomorrow or Wednesday before the market closes.

I did the same (May 8 $760 call, bought late Friday, up 80%). I plan to sell half of them Wednesday, and hold the other half through earnings. Exactly what time to sell them, I'll try to figure out on the day, and will probably get it wrong.

 

[kengchang]

Sounds like officially the order in Alameda is extended but I also read that the President has declared Auto Manufacturing as essential business which would exclude them. That makes the situation unclear at least.

Tesla has called the workers now to stay at home. Its been a smaller group anyway likely to get all prep up for a restart but that seems to be delayed now.

Anybody having more news?

http://www.acphd.org/media/571922/press-release-2020.04.27.pdf

Everything hinges on "The new order will include limited easing of specific restrictions for a small number of lower-risk activities."

 

[LJS22]

Everything hinges on "The new order will include limited easing of specific restrictions for a small number of lower-risk activities."

I think Tesla will argue that they were safely able to reopen the Shanghai factory with many safety regulations introduced to insure the safety of employees. With this experience in China I believe they can make a clear cut case for reopening the Fremont factory.

 

[Steve m]

I don't see how California including the SF Bay ares under lockdown for more then a week or 10 days.

CA unemployment has jumped from 4 to 17%. Hundreds of thousands are not getting unemployment payments. Protests have started and are expected to escalate.

Coronavirus crisis: Hundreds of thousands of Californians may not be receiving unemployment benefits, federal data shows

 

[Maitri982]

Thise two are despicable. They lie with numbers and make totally false claims like "adults being socially isolated for 3 months will sudden lower our immunity to things so we will almost very sick m from something else". Bullsheet.

They extrapolates overall infection rates from current test/infection rates without stating the obvious that people being tested are already very sick and are more likey to have C19 then the general public.

I am sorry their hospital is struggling, and really that's with that carnival show was really about, but many businesses are suffering and they don't resort to using some professional credentials to distort the truth at the risk of many, including their very own colleagues.

Viruses are good! People with COPD who got c-19 didn't die from c-19! It's because they smoked! Unbelievable BS.

 

[sparcs]

I think Tesla will argue that they were safely able to reopen the Shanghai factory with many safety regulations introduced to insure the safety of employees. With this experience in China I believe they can make a clear cut case for reopening the Fremont factory.

There were no cases of covid-19 in the lingang area of China or at the Shanghai factory. That argument might have made sense in March, but the USA is entirely different than China now. We have far more community spread so the rules are going to be much more restrictive here and likely slow. Shanghai GF isn't comparable anymore.

 

[StealthP3D]

I don't think Elon will change guidance coming Wednesday. Nope. Dude is a honey badger. You can't expect him to admit defeat with 8 more months to work things out.

I can see it going either way. He may figure it's in Tesla's best interest to use this opportunity to set a lower bar (so they can handily beat in). Or, he might say "Barring unforeseen developments, we don't see a problem meeting previous guidance for 2020".

I will take either because settting a lower bar strengthens the chance of an upside surprise later in the year and reduces the chances of a sales/production/earnings miss down the road that might cause the stock to tank.

 

[Stretch2727]

Alameda County is extending the stay at home order through the end of May with limited eased restrictions for “lower risk” activities. We don’t know whether that includes the factory. If not, Tesla will be forced to remain closed until June.

I work in Mfg/logistics in NJ and it is considered essential in NJ. We never shut down, but are running with 2 teams at 30% of normal capacity. Matches our current sales level. I consider it relatively safe. People are generally in a fixed location spread out through out building. We have plenty of PPE.

We have sister location in NY state also operational through the entire shut down on the same pattern. Under what legality I am not sure. Gov Cuomo mentioned the other day that manufacturing/construction would be the first to open in NY.

I am pretty sure Fremont will be considered one of the low risk activities. Manufactures are used to implementing defined procedures and protocols, adding another layer for Covid is relatively straightforward.

 

[Steve m]

Gov Newsom and the CHP are being sued for denying permits for holding protests against his policy.

https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/crime/article242323641.html

 

[Jack6591]

I have worked in electric utility industry for years—in close proximity to voltages as high as 230,000 volts. These are lethal work areas. The folks that work in these environments know and understand the hazards associated with the work. More importantly, they implement safe work practices and utilize all appropriate personal protective equipment. They work in a safe manner.

Tesla has the technology, skills, and experience to work safely. The coronavirus is a real and present danger, but it is time to go to work, and work smart.

 

[Singuy]

I work in Mfg/logistics in NJ and it is considered essential in NJ. We never shut down, but are running with 2 teams at 30% of normal capacity. Matches our current sales level. I consider it relatively safe. People are generally in a fixed location spread out through out building. We have plenty of PPE.

We have sister location in NY state also operational through the entire shut down on the same pattern. Under what legality I am not sure. Gov Cuomo mentioned the other day that manufacturing/construction would be the first to open in NY.

I am pretty sure Fremont will be considered one of the low risk activities. Manufactures are used to implementing defined procedures and protocols, adding another layer for Covid is relatively straightforward.

Yeah except your company doesn't have MSM and short sellers talking *sugar* when Tesla is making cars.

 

[Pezpunk]

Gov Newsom and the CHP are being sued for denying permits for holding protests against his policy.

https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/crime/article242323641.html

Oh, conservative closure protesters are doing it? I can’t think of better proof that something’s a stupid, ignorant, bad idea.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Uh oh....

 

[Curt Renz]

Buiness Insider - today:

 

[Steve m]

Oh, conservative closure protesters are doing it? I can’t think of better proof that something’s a stupid, ignorant, bad idea.

Stupid or not, preventing people from working and then not paying unemployment benefits are a likely way to cause riots.