Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SageBrush]

Tomorrow is going to be absolutely wild. I can easily see a 20% swing in TSLA tomorrow after earnings one way or the other depending on what is said during the earnings call. If Elon says "Oh by the way we're still going to sell the same number of cars this year we said we would" then there is no limit, we won't be going to Mars, we'll be going to Infinity and Beyond. But if Elon instead says "Oh we don't know when Fremont is opening and we think we might sell half the number of cars this year we said we would" then I think we might retest $180 before all is said and done.

Fremont is closed and Shanghai is ramping -- of course sales are down. Way down.
And they will remain way down until a vaccine is wide-spread. We are in for a two year major recession -- that just seems baked in.

I am interested in the report tomorrow mostly to learn the Tesla cash burn rate. I figure Tesla can go through upwards of $4B and still have enough reserves to come out the other end.

 

[MC3OZ]

Fremont is closed and Shanghai is ramping -- of course sales are down. Way down.
And they will remain way down until a vaccine is wide-spread. We are in for a two year major recession -- that just seems baked in.

I am interested in the report tomorrow mostly to learn the Tesla cash burn rate. I figure Tesla can go through upwards of $4B and still have enough reserves to come out the other end.

For Q1 we will know the actual burn rate, which should not be too bad.

Q2 is an estimate, and when Fremont reopens is a big factor, I'm not sure how accurate the Q2 estimate can be. To be accurate, they need to know a definite date when Fremont is reopening..

We will still learn a lot of useful information:-

• Solar roof progress
• Shanghai progress and projections..
• Estimate for yearly production and deliveries...
• Perhaps some estimates for Q2 production and deliveries.

 

[skybluecgreen]

Has Elon officially announced that Fremont is not opening on May 4th? Why does everyone assume that Tesla is going to follow the counties recommendation and stay closed for weeks?

Tesla hasn't said they will not reopen May 4th. Alameda county set the initial stay at home order to expire May 3rd and Tesla went along with that. I think they will not fight it this time either. Hopefully they and other manufacturers can lobby Alameda to make exceptions for them to open sooner.

 

[Tachyon]

$180 to infinity and beyond....I dub thee "TMC Adam Jonas."

I hereby declare it The Adam Jonas Codomain
Henceforth , every Tesla earnings call day will be known as Adam Jonas Codomain Day in perpetuity

 

[Rammstein]

It’s Tesla earnings tomorrow. I can’t believe something like Xmas comes four times a year as an adult

 

[PeterJA]

...And [sales] will remain way down until a vaccine is wide-spread. We are in for a two year major recession...

Apparently Dr. @SageBrush is pessimistic about the power of virus testing, antibody testing, herd immunity, nutritional medicine, antiviral drugs, workplace safety measures, and economic stimulus measures.

Strange that he/she thinks Fremont can't ramp production soon, since he/she noted that Giga Shanghai is already doing it.

 

[Zaxxon]

It’s Tesla earnings tomorrow. I can’t believe something like Xmas comes four times a year as an adult

Five times, if you count Christmas.

 

[Jack6591]

Elon Musk has profoundly affected the ways in which I view the world; specifically how I digest information — how I discern signal from noise. Over the years I’ve made my finest efforts to refine and develop those skills.

Right at this moment, I’m feeling pretty amateurish. Maybe tomorrow I can claim “Rookie of the Year.” I’m all in...give ‘em hell Elon.

 

[Thekiwi]

Newsom said 'weeks away' for his projected start of Phase 2. I take that to mean mid-May. Unfortunately Alameda is pushing it out until June and he said he will respect localization differences. Some counties may wish to begin Phase 2 sooner and others later than his recommendation.

He said Bay area counties are being more stringent than him so that's why I presume he means about mid May for his projected start of Phase 2.

On the bright side, early June looks to be the worst case scenario for Fremont to reopen.

If Gigafactory Nevada is still going reopen May 4 I wonder if it can be useful to operate in May or if it will be mostly idle to coincide with Fremont. Could Nevada battery cells be deployed for increased storage in the meantime?

If Fremont opening is start of June, it would mean no Q2 EU delivery of Model S/3/X units that weren't already in stock from end of last quarter, as well as many other ROW markets, but maybe still some Q2 P3/S/X deliveries to China possibly.

Would be interesting to see what Tesla would do in that situation - would they use the one month of production time solely for North American production & delvieries to maximise Q2 finances, or would they still look to send a weeks worth of production to EU & China knowing that some or all of it would slip into Q3 numbers. If I had to bet I think they might still send some S & X models internationally, but prioritise 3 production for North America (and Y obviously goes without saying as it is NA only at this stage)

 

[bigsmooth125]

Apologies for starting it. I wanted to know the possible impacts on TSLA if Battery gate was for real and to see if this really is a big enough issue to worry about. That would certainly have a heck of a lot more impact on TSLA than many (if not most) of the other topics discussed here. Especially if this possible problem will eventually even occur on new batteries being produced. The other battery gate threads are full of extra salty owners who claim they will do nothing but badmouth Tesla from here on out and I cannot get good read on the real situation. Some of those people are claiming the complete downfall of the company. I think that’s overblown but wanted opinions from here. This thread seems to be a bit more “level headed” on average. Hence why I brought it up. When I have 7 figures riding on the line here (Long TSLA), I think it’s pretty darn important.

You shouldn't be apologizing. You asked a valid question to which I gave an answer based on my experience. That so few people responded to the substance of your question to me is an indication of the level of objectivity in this thread unfortunately. You should be asking why many of those salty owners were formerly long time Tesla fans. Btw, I'm closer to 8 figures than 6 in total value of TSLA.


But the good news is that I can still come here for the umpteenth hiro joke without persecution. Keep driving away the proponents of Tesla and all this site will end up with are the ones who want to see Tesla fail.

What what would be equally bad is if fair criticism of Tesla were censored leaving the site with only Tesla cheerleaders. You can also come here for unlimited anecdotes about one's investing history, sightings of Tesla delivery trucks, and SpaceX launches. Just don't criticize Tesla/Elon too much.

Normally I would have just let your comment slide about stopping the discussion and complied without response. But when I read the “Topic starter should have known better” sentence, that triggered me and I think was uncalled for. I can see why the two largest contributors Fact Checking and Karen Rei left. Requests to stop a topic discussion can be made without adding unnecessary lines like “should have known better”.

You should take as a badge of honor the wide mix of reviews your post received.

 

[kengchang]

Jay Leno's garage returns 5/20 featuring CyberTruck and Boring Tunnel in this season.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Elon Musk has profoundly affected the ways in which I view the world; specifically how I digest information — how I discern signal from noise. Over the years I’ve made my finest efforts to refine and develop those skills.

Right at this moment, I’m feeling pretty amateurish. Maybe tomorrow I can claim “Rookie of the Year.” I’m all in...give ‘em hell Elon.

On Monday, everything was looking really good, until Alameda county extended the stay-at-home order through May 31. Counting on a significant Q1 beat tomorrow, but timing of Fremont factory opening is going to weight heavily on the direction of the stock tomorrow. Unfortunately it’s out of Elon’s control.

For that reason I moved 15% of my portfolio to cash. Core shares left untouched.

 

[CalX]

What method are you all using to get notified as soon as the earnings report is out?

 

[kengchang]

What method are you all using to get notified as soon as the earnings report is out?

ir.tesla.com and keep refreshing

 

[XHabjab]

You could just make me a moderator.

That would not be a good day.

 

[Green Pete]

What method are you all using to get notified as soon as the earnings report is out?

F5 (jokes aside, I'm not touching after hours trading, I don't ever sell shares and I buy calls and puts in anticipation of volitility and since you can't trade those after hours it doesn't matter if I see the report 2 hours later, but I'll def be checking the AH price, Twitter and this board by 4:35pm ET)

 

[XHabjab]

So, current share stats for TSLA and TM:

TSLA
Market Cap: $141.8B
# shares outstanding: 184.4M

TM:
Market Cap: $176.5B

TSLA meets TM's current market cap at $176.5B / 184.4M or

$957.16 / share

I know that Lodger will help me out if my calculation is wrong.

 

[Buckminster]

I am not scared. I’ve obedience trained dogs and herded cats before.

Tis us that be scared. You like cats and dogs....

 

[Buckminster]

Happy earnings day everyone!

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Happy earnings day everyone!

May God have mercy on our souls, because Elon/SEC/Trump/Chanos/Exxon/Powell/Corona/etc. most certainly won't.