Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

So long it's not "funding secured", he's entitled to have his opinion although I would rather Tesla negotiate with the county to run the factory at reduced capacity.

I agree...

And a lot of potential Cybertruck buyers may be right on board with this message.

Elon has always been "unfiltered", the fact that he is protesting is good, it means he is going to comply, maybe this is just "aggressive negotiation" and also simply stating his opinion..

We can all understand his frustration, having a closed factory is costly, and frustrating.

 

[replicant]

Has he learned nothing?

He learned insanity from John McAfee.

 

[Pezpunk]

Wow, Elon should really STFU:
Elon Musk on Twitter
This can do nothing but cause grief. Along with (Elon Musk on Twitter).

For those of you who don't do Twitter, that's "FREE AMERICA NOW" (yes, all caps) and "Bravo Texas!" in reply to a tweet stating that Texas is opening various businesses on Friday. Has he learned nothing?

x1000. these tweets are super duper stupid.

 

[Cobbler]

Show us your cards:

Who bought/sold shares this week in anticipation of a positive/negative report?

I bought extra shares this week

Who else? Please announce it before market's closed today.
I really hate ( ) those bragging-posts saying "Woooww, look at the price action in AH, glad I bought/sold shares before!"

 

[WarpedOne]

I bought some on 17th March, I'm good ...

 

[TSLA_Hopeful]

I bought some on 17th March, I'm good ...

Selling some tomorrow in anticipation

 

[Artful Dodger]

TSLA meets TM's current market cap at $176.5B / 184.4M or

$957.16 / share

I know that Lodger will help me out if my calculation is wrong.

Ooh, close! You nailed TSLA's Market Cap, but Toyota (NYSE:TM) was $204.22 B as of Tuesday.

So that tgt is now $1,109.25/share for TSLA, barring further Cap raises (Equity grants to employees and Officers are likewise on hold during Q2).

Does not matter a wit: TSLA is headed to $22K, while Toyota is headed for the trash Hino of history. I give them 10 years, since they show no interest in righting their ship.

In a decade, I expect to see a Tesla Cybertruck (SpaceX Ed.) exploring Mars. Yes I do, arriving Christmas Day, 2031. Mark your calendars folks, I'll be here.

Cheers!

P.S. Ford be like: "Houston, we have a problem" (F-150 sales in Texas).

 

[Mike Smith]

Global Times on Twitter

'Tesla CEO @elonmusk told Shanghai Party chief Li Qiang in a video conference Wednesday that the #gigafactory in Shanghai "performed well" during the #COVID19 assault and Tesla will expand investment in the city.'

 

[SO16]

x1000. these tweets are super duper stupid.

I’ll bet he’s gained more supporters than he lost.

 

[deffu]

I think we are due for an earning surprise today(positive of course). WS consensus is negative no. having a hard time figuring out how they came up with it.

 

[Artful Dodger]

If shares outstanding doesn't increase, we will be at:

Lol, by definition there HAS to be at least another 12% shares by then, since each tranche results in a 1% equity grant. But it's compounded, so it's more like 12.7% and don't forget annual equity grants to employees and officers of the company. So predictably more outstanding shares.

All this just lowers the tgt SP to achieve a $650B Mkt Cap however, and Wall St. has barely noticed dilution while trading on technicals as though the number of shares outstanding never changes. In a high growth compmany like Tesla, "dilution" is a rounding error...

Cheers!

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Show us your cards:

Who bought/sold shares this week in anticipation of a positive/negative report?

I bought extra shares this week

Who else? Please announce it before market's closed today.
I really hate ( ) those bragging-posts saying "Woooww, look at the price action in AH, glad I bought/sold shares before!"

I bought a few share, but in all fairness, it wasn't because of the upcoming ER and call. I buy shares when I have the money...period. if I don't have the money...I don't buy. It's pretty simple for me. I invest in the company because I believe in the company, not because I think the stock will go up or down on any given day.

I guess I'm weird that way.

Dan

 

[MC3OZ]

I’ll bet he’s gained more supporters than he lost.

Elon is just being Elon, I'm not sure why people are surprised.. he has formed his opinion, and has his point of view.

I do understand the criticism, this tweet expresses his view best:- Elon Musk on Twitter

Yes, reopen with care & appropriate protection, but don’t put everyone under de facto house arrest

The key part is "with care & appropriate protection" that has to be done right...

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Why do some many people want to put Elon in a mold? Let him be, he doesn't have to be the perfect son-in-law.

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

I buy shares when I have the money...period. if I don't have the money...I don't buy. It's pretty simple for me. I invest in the company because I believe in the company, not because I think the stock will go up or down on any given day.

I guess I'm weird that way.

Dan

Nothing weird, I think many of us are following similar approaches.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Got my Dramamine...
Got my air sick bag...

Ready for earnings! Bring it on.

Dan

 

[LN1_Casey]

So, say that the ER isn't positive, and is about the same as estimates from the analysis people. Besides the initial short drop, which will probably happen even with positive results, what does everyone think about the long term result on the SP?

Specifically, last year's Q1 was a disappointment, and the SP went down for the next few months, including after Q2, until it recovered in Q4. However, this time there is a world-wide pandemic and the market understands that the Q1 and Q2 (maybe Q3) will be affected by this.

Does anyone think the bears will be able to make a continual down push of the SP post release? Or do you think that the SP will shake them off and be responsive to the facts about Tesla post-Corona (whenever that'll be), and stay upwards of 500/600/700?

 

[Christine69420]

Car sales in Europe down 55.1%

ACEA on Twitter

The only exception is Iceland where sales this year is up by 4 cars compared to 2019 (1074/1078). Go Karen!

 

[mongo]

Lol, by definition there HAS to be at least another 12% shares by then, since each tranche results in a 1% equity grant. But it's compounded, so it's more like 12.7% and don't forget annual equity grants to employees and officers of the company. So predictably more outstanding shares.

Correct regarding dilutution, incorrect regarding componded. Elon's one percent tranche sizes are fixed from the inception of the compensation plan.

CEOPerformance Award Value.
The total number of shares of Tesla common stock underlying the CEO Performance Award will be 20,264,042, divided equally among 12 separate tranches of options to purchase approximately 1.69 million shares per tranche. The number of shares underlying the CEO Performance Award in each tranche is equivalent to 1% of the 168,867,016 shares of Tesla’s common stock outstanding as of January 19, 2018 and, therefore, the total number of shares underlying the CEO Performance Award is equivalent to 12% of the total number of shares of Tesla’s common stock outstanding as of such date.

https://tesla.gcs-web.com/static-files/55362f0a-ee8a-4fcc-ba11-cc09194974b6

Old estimate from plan :

For illustration purposes only, if (i) all 20,264,042 shares of common stock subject to the CEO Performance Award were to become fully vested, outstanding and held by Mr. Musk; (ii) all shares of common stock subject to the other options held by Mr. Musk that are currently vested and exercisable were outstanding, (iii) the 527,491 shares of common stock subject to the tenth and final tranche of the 2012 Performance Award were to become fully vested, outstanding and held by Mr. Musk, (iv) estimated dilution as a result of potential exercises or conversions from the existing employee equity pool and the outstanding convertible notes and warrants were to be considered; and (v) there were no other dilutive events of any kind, Mr. Musk would beneficially own 28.3% of the outstanding shares of Tesla common stock.

And lest any headlines imply otherwise, Elon must hold the shares for 5 years before exercising them (excluding to pay taxes on award). (Not sure of impact on ability to back loans)

 

[bramsvs]

Why do some many people want to put Elon in a mold? Let him be, he doesn't have to be the perfect son-in-law.

Nobody says he needs to be perfect, Fred. Some just want him to be less dumb!

I think this Reddit post explains the problem pretty well:
Elon Musk, a consistent COVID-19 skeptic, tweets FREE AMERICA NOW : teslamotors

48 points · 43 minutes ago
Honestly, I wish Elon would STFU about things he's not actually knowledgeable about. Especially when supporting stupid *sugar* like this is going to get thousands of people killed.

The other day he posted a tweet that insinuated that doctors were intubating people who didn't need to be intubated for money. As a doctor taking care of COVID19 patients that was honestly the most insulting bullshit conspiracy trash I've ever read. As if I would really doom my patients to an 80%+ mortality rate just so the hospital's balance sheet looks nicer. The reason the mortality rate is so high for intubated patients is because they're SICK AS *sugar* AND CAN'T BREATHE Elon, not because we're in some insane conspiracy to intubate everyone needlessly.

It's honestly so infuriating reading this *sugar* that I almost want to cancel my Cybertruck order because I don't want to support his COVID19 stupidity. No we shouldn't just open everything up, and no, we're not intubating people in some conspiracy to make our hospital money. Not mention that this conspiracy is stupid as **** when most hospitals are losing money on COVID19 because it's the elective surgeries that make money, not intubating people for weeks at a time in the ICU while paying tons of staff endless overtime to work as ICU nurses and physicians. This is literally the stupidest conspiracy theory I've ever heard, hospitals would make FAR more money when the economy is opened back up and they can do endless elective surgeries that bill the OR at thousands per hour.

I know a ton of doctors that drive Teslas and his stupid ass COVID19 tweets are not going to go over well with them when they're spending their days dealing with these super sick patients while he's tweeting stupid *sugar* that's going to get people killed.