Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

Just to expand on my earlier comments on energy storage batteries:-
Solar, wind and battery storage now cheapest energy options just about everywhere | RenewEconomy

The cost estimates for technologies in Australia are (all figures in US dollars).

Tracking PV $26-67 per MWh
Fixed-axis PV $29-80 per MWh
Onshore wind $32-83 per MWh
Combined cycle gas turbine power plant $66-96 per MWh
Onshore wind plus storage $50-124 per MWh
Fixed-axis PV plus storage $58-178 per MWh
Utility-scale battery (four-hour storage duration) $145-167 per MWh
Open cycle gas turbine power plant $146-309 per MWh

Utility-scale battery (four-hour storage duration) $145-167 per MWh - if this number is based on a 10 year battery lifetime a simple change to a 20 year lifetime halves that cost.

The whole suite of measures that will be introduced by Battery Day is very likely to halve that cost...

If we apply that reduced battery cost, we can see all other forms of electrcity generation and storage are being challenged by RE+batteries:-
Onshore wind plus storage $41-$104
Fixed-axis PV plus storage $44-$129

Lithium-Ion Energy Storage Cost vs. Pumped Hydro Or Flow Battery Cost Are Dependent On Time | CleanTechnica

If we look at this chart the only bad news for Tesla is that Pumped Hydro and perhaps Sulphur flow batteries out complete Tesla batteries on > 4 hours of energy storage...

Given the LCOE of these storage solutions, the economics show lithium-ion and other solutions break even around 4 hours. There, question resolved.

But again the halving of the cost probably pushes lithium-ion to break even at around 6-8 hours.

In fact CleanTechnica is more bullish:-

Putting these two economic projections together conveys an increase in lithium-ion storage durations in the future that no one is talking about. I expect these maximum storage times to reach 8–12 hours.

Perhaps there is even a virtuous cycle of Wrights Law allowing ithium-ion to keep lowering costs and unlocking more and more of the market as prices fall. CleanTechnicia has reached a similar conclusion.

The good thing is PV and Wind while being the cheapest for of electricity generation need storage and battery storage can do a lot more than just provide storage, for example it can help maintain stable frequency and voltage and reduce the need for transmission line upgrades.

So how big is the opportunity for Tesla in energy storage batteries?

We might get the answer at Battery Day.

I do hope we see more discussion of Tesla financials and market opportunities in here, fewer arguments and less pseudo-political discussion.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Don’t twist words. I was saying it’s obvious that a Great Depression would be way worse for the human race. Tesla can open up their factory with the right protocols.

Last time I checked over 95% of deaths are people over 80. If you are high risk take care of yourself. Otherwise the economy should open up. This corona panic is dumb.

BTW I thought this way before Elon had the guts to speak up about it. Look at Sweden and how they are doing.

Let it go now, please.

 

[StealthP3D]

Just got a memo saying TMC ran out of disagrees last night. A new batch has been ordered.

I confess I'm guilty of using up a lot of disagrees. I'm glad you guys are on top of ordering more because the amount of BS being posted here has gone through the roof.

That always happens whenever TSLA performs really well. It riles up those who like to cast shade. It's a natural human reaction to missing out, in whole or in part.

 

[StealthP3D]

So I agree with the concept you are disagreeing with, but I don't trust my fellow citizens to enough to believe in the benefits of the outcome.

On the other hand, people don't wear masks at home and they are in much tighter quarters.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Down 15 euros in Frankfurt market. 2900 shares traded. MM are at it again.

Apr. 30, 4:11 a.m. EDT
Pre-market 865.00 +64.49 (8.06%)​

 

[heltok]

”many suppliers especially small ones are having a hard time”

Maybe some of these will risk bankrupcy. I think Tesla should/will consider a capital raise and going on a shopping spree for key suppliers at a discount price. As Tesla is going for 20M vehicles per year at the end of this decade they are gonna need a bigger share of these companies’ business.

Also I assume a lot of states will be looking at some pretty bad unemployment rates and having Sparks’s labor shortage problem will start to look very attractive. Expect very favorable deals over the coming months.

Now is the time for Tesla to raise capital, acquire suppliers, sign deals for Gigafactories.

 

[Artful Dodger]

"Tesla Q1 2020 Earnings Call (shortened fixed version)" | CleanTechnica (58:39)

 

[RobStark]

Texas allows restaurants to stay open for takeout and/or delivery, including relaxed liquor rules. Margarita delivery! Completely different environment. Texans seem to be responding with (mostly) common sense, but there are exceptions.

In Los Angeles restaurants are open for takeout window,curbside pickup or home delivery.

Also many restaurants in Los Angeles have become popup grocery stores. Also available for takeout window,curbside pickup or home delivery. Can't enter restaurants themselves.

On Monday I went out for a drive without fascist police pulling me over asking what am I doing.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Something that does not seem to be discussed (and I think elon is smart not to, because of the implications) is the whole automation / alien dreadnought thing...

A completely automated battery factory would be running flat out right now, without one moment of downtime, virus be damned. Even if that is a little way off, Elon must be thinking that the tradeoff of extra investment in automation in some parts of the line might be worth making, if it means he can argue for a re-opening or constant use of a plant even with serious social distancing measures in place.

 

[Steve m]

In Los Angeles restaurants are open for takeout window,curbside pickup or home delivery.

Also many restaurants in Los Angeles have become popup grocery stores. Also available for takeout window,curbside pickup or home delivery. Can't enter restaurants themselves.

On Monday I went out for a drive without fascist police pulling me over asking what am I doing.

Were you allowed to go to a factory and make clean cars?

 

[LN1_Casey]

Dusaniwsky says TSLA shorts lost over $1 billion today alone. Enough days like that and it eventually adds up to some real money!

Who here thinks these near 20million shorted stocks didn't cover from this post earlier this week? Man, is this going to hurt.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Just got a memo saying TMC ran out of disagrees last night. A new batch has been ordered.

Are they considered to be PPE on this forum?

 

[dww12]

Do options premiums go to zero in the last minutes before close on the day they expire? I sold some covered calls and am debating buying the calls back tomorrow vs letting them execute and buying more shares today. I have never held options to expirery nor had covered calls execute.

 

[CorneliusXX]

”many suppliers especially small ones are having a hard time”

Maybe some of these will risk bankrupcy. I think Tesla should/will consider a capital raise and going on a shopping spree for key suppliers at a discount price. As Tesla is going for 20M vehicles per year at the end of this decade they are gonna need a bigger share of these companies’ business.

Also I assume a lot of states will be looking at some pretty bad unemployment rates and having Sparks’s labor shortage problem will start to look very attractive. Expect very favorable deals over the coming months.

Now is the time for Tesla to raise capital, acquire suppliers, sign deals for Gigafactories.

Agreed, they should make the most of this crisitunity and use the option to vertically integrate further where appropriate. There must be high quality manufacturers who would usually be priced far too richly to make an acquisition worthwhile that are now hurting with demand reduction and want a white knight to purchase them.

 

[Mike Smith]

There is an important error in the earnings call transcripts from both Seeking Alpha and Motley Fool. In his response to the Rob Maurer question about whether Tesla is still targeting a long-term 50% growth rate, they both claim Elon responds that the likely number is 40%. In fact he says 50%. It's really hard to hear but I slowed it down and not only am I 90% sure he says 50, but it's also the only number that makes sense given that he follows that by saying 40% is possible, and that he'd be shocked if it was less than 40% (would require WW3). 40% can't be his most likely number if he would be shocked if it was less than that.

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Q1 2020 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool

Motley Fool transcript says:

'So I think in the absence of something, some massive force majeure event, but quite massive, I think, 40% is the likely number. It's possible that is 40%. I would be very shocked, if it's less than 40%, even with force majeure, short of World War III.'

It should say:

'So I think in the absence of something, some massive force majeure event, but quite massive, I think, 50% is the likely number. It's possible that is 40%. I would be very shocked, if it's less than 40%, even with force majeure, short of World War III.'

 

[RobStark]

Were you allowed to go to a factory and make clean cars?

No, but then again neither were Texans.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Tesla shouldn’t sink another nickel into infrastructure in the Bay Area. Then they need a plan to move manufacturing out of that old NUMI building into a brand new Giga in a more advantageous location.

It's useful to have the engineers and designers near the factory floor - they can see how the process is working and what issues they can engineer/design out of the vehicle. That said, the real scale to 5m-20m vehicles per year can be elsewhere. Then NUMMI is only a few percent of total manufacturing capacity at 500k p.a.

 

[Singuy]

There is an important error in the earnings call transcripts from both Seeking Alpha and Motley Fool. In his response to the Rob Maurer question about whether Tesla is still targeting a long-term 50% growth rate, they both claim Elon responds that the likely number is 40%. In fact he says 50%. It's really hard to hear but I slowed it down and not only am I 90% sure he says 50, but it's also the only number that makes sense given that he follows that by saying 40% is possible, and that he'd be shocked if it was less than 40% (would require WW3). 40% can't be his most likely number if he would be shocked if it was less than that.

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Q1 2020 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool

Motley Fool transcript says:

'So I think in the absence of something, some massive force majeure event, but quite massive, I think, 40% is the likely number. It's possible that is 40%. I would be very shocked, if it's less than 40%, even with force majeure, short of World War III.'

It should say:

'So I think in the absence of something, some massive force majeure event, but quite massive, I think, 50% is the likely number. It's possible that is 40%. I would be very shocked, if it's less than 40%, even with force majeure, short of World War III.'

Important to fix yes, will it affect sp? No. This is in the bucket of FSD and terawatt hr production. "We will price it in when we see it Elon" is the attitude toward these things.

 

[replicant]

The cote Argus will be suspended for the duration of the lock-down. This is the French benchmark price for second-hand vehicles.

Automobile : l'Argus gèle sa cote pour la durée du confinement

And so it begins?

 

[Singuy]

Yep, every worker has a mask on in a spotless facility. You can bet they took each worker's temperature before they entered too. The employees would probably be LESS safe hanging out at home with their family.

True story. Chinese were infected mainly from home studies have said. No one wears their mask at home plus close proximity.